Speaker Pelosi Visits Taiwan

Having met, and professionally interacted with PRC officials over a long period of time, I can assure anyone who’s interested that there is no shortage of reasonable people in the CCP or the Foreign Ministry. Reading the rantings of Cult 45 will give you as good an assessment of America’s Center-Right politics as will using periodic provocations and responses to provocations to understand elite politics within the CCP.

having met, and professionally interacted with PRC officials over a long period of time, I can also assure you that the "reasonable people" have no voice whatsoever in the Party of Xi Jinping.

Li Keqiang has been repeatedly censored -- do you think any of the dweebs in the Foreign Ministry have any influence on Xi? there's a reason why all those "reasonable" diplomats are going full Wolf Warrior nowadays.

the closest thing you'll get to reasonable people who actually have any influence on Xi are, ironically, the upper echelons of the CMC telling him that the PLA can't beat the Taiwanese, the Americans, the Japanese, and possibly the Australians and the UK in a fight....yet.
 
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indeed. but note I said "the closest thing you'll get to reasonable". the only common interest is no war for the next few years, and the PLA figures they don't need to communicate much with the Americans to do that (note they cut off military comms and engagement to "punish" the Americans).

as for any other possible common interest, they don't give a good goddamn including the environment, fentanyl, trade, so forth.
 
indeed. but note I said "the closest thing you'll get to reasonable". the only common interest is no war for the next few years, and the PLA figures they don't need to communicate much with the Americans to do that (note they cut off military comms and engagement to "punish" the Americans).

as for any other possible common interest, they don't give a good goddamn including the environment, fentanyl, trade, so forth.

Are you taking their statement about cutting off talks at face value?
I didn’t expect that!

Come on, this isn’t the first time we’ve stopped talking, not by a long shot.
 
Are you taking their statement about cutting off talks at face value?
I didn’t expect that!

Come on, this isn’t the first time we’ve stopped talking, not by a long shot.

military to military engagement is probably off the table for the rest of the year at minimum.

as for the Pentagon-CMC "red phone", that is a ludicrous joke that's only used for show.

also note beyond the matter of cutting off talks, PRC hasn't fulfilled its side of the trade deal. so...I doubt there will be any space for reasonable people.

let alone on the Taiwan question, where Xi's made it clear that he's quite willing to burn the rest of the relationship on those grounds.
 
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Still not seeing it.
We’ll resume talking when the heat dies down, when something else comes up, or when they want something. More chances for something unpleasant to happen (unintended conflict), but not the end of the world.
 
More US lawmakers visit Taiwan 12 days after Pelosi trip
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — A delegation of American lawmakers arrived in Taiwan on Sunday, just 12 days after a visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that prompted China to launch days of threatening military drills around the self-governing island that Beijing says must come under its control.

The five-member delegation, led by Democratic Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts, will meet President Tsai Ing-wen and other officials, as well as members of the private sector, to discuss shared interests including reducing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and investments in semiconductors.

China responded to Pelosi’s Aug. 2 visit by sending missiles, warships and warplanes into the seas and skies around Taiwan for several days afterward. The Chinese government objects to Taiwan having any official contact with foreign governments, particularly with a high-ranking congressional leader like Pelosi.

A Taiwanese broadcaster showed video of a U.S. government plane landing about 7 p.m. Sunday at Songshan Airport in Taipei, the Taiwanese capital. Four members of the delegation were on the plane.

​​​​​​​Markey met with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol earlier Sunday in South Korea before arriving in Taiwan on a separate flight at Taoyuan International Airport, which also serves Taipei. Markey, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations East Asia, Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Subcommittee, and members of the delegation will reaffirm the United States’ support for Taiwan.

The other members of the delegation are Republican Rep. Aumua Amata Coleman Radewagen, a delegate from American Samoa, and Democratic House members John Garamendi and Alan Lowenthal from California and Don Beyer from Virginia.

Chinese warplanes have continued crossing the midpoint of the Taiwan Strait on a daily basis even after the conclusion of the military exercises last Wednesday, with at least 10 doing so on Sunday, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said.

The 10 fighter jets were among 22 Chinese military aircraft and six naval ships detected in the area around Taiwan by 5 p.m. on Sunday, the ministry said on its Twitter account.

A senior White House official on Asia policy said late last week that China had used Pelosi’s visit as a pretext to launch an intensified pressure campaign against Taiwan, jeopardizing peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the broader region.

“China has overreacted, and its actions continue to be provocative, destabilizing, and unprecedented,” Kurt Campbell, a deputy assistant to President Joe Biden, said on a call with reporters.

“It has sought to disregard the centerline between the P.R.C. and Taiwan, which has been respected by both sides for more than 60 years as a stabilizing feature,” he said, using the acronym for the country’s full name, the People’s Republic of China.

China accuses the U.S. of encouraging independence forces in Taiwan through its sale of military equipment to the island and engaging with its officials. The U.S. says it does not support independence for Taiwan but that its differences with China should be resolved by peaceful means.

China’s ruling Communist Party has long said that it favors Taiwan joining China peacefully but that it will not rule out force if necessary. The two split in 1949 during a civil war in which the Communists took control of China and the losing Nationalists retreated to the island of Taiwan.

Campbell, speaking on Friday, said the U.S. would send warships and planes through the Taiwan Strait in the next few weeks and is developing a roadmap for trade talks with Taiwan that he said the U.S. intends to announce in the coming days.

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Here's what we think might be the way it plays out.


Xi Jinping decides to test the waters with his colleagues, to see who would stand up to him if he decided to start a war over Taiwan. He calls an expanded Politburo Standing Committee (the PBSC, 7 members) and the Military Affairs Commission (the MAC, another 6).


Xi: “Can you do it?”

PBSC:
“Yessir, yessir, three bags full sir!”

MAC: “It depends on what the American do.”

PBSC:
“Oh. You wanted our opinion? Huh, that's new.”



Xi: “We can't afford to fail. If we start this, and don't finish it very fast, the popular reaction may be more than we are prepared for.”

MAC: “We've seen what happened in the Middle East when the Americans decided to get rough, and in Ukraine, when they decided to just supply the defenders with a bucket load of weapons.”

Xi: “Yes, and the last time you guys fought a real battle, you got your heads handed to you, didn't you? I'm looking at you Vietnam veterans now...”

MAC: “Our considered opinion is that the time is not right. Let's think about it again in 20 years.”


PBSC:
“Do you still want our opinion? No? Oh, good!”

XI: “This meeting is over.”
 
Following her visit the US announced that it has approved a $1.1 billion sale of weapons to Taiwan naturally pissing China off and threats of counter measures. The radar system and those 60 anti-ship Harpoons will make it tough on China if she feels amphibious.

The US has agreed to sell $1.1bn (£955m) in weaponry to Taiwan, provoking anger from China.

The proposed deal includes a radar system to track incoming strikes and anti-ship and anti-air missiles.

It comes after US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi last month became the most senior US official in 25 years to visit Taipei.

The Chinese embassy in Washington called on the US to revoke the deal or face "counter-measures".

Spokesman Liu Pengyu said the deal "severely jeopardises" relations between Washington and Beijing.

"China will resolutely take legitimate and necessary counter-measures in light of the development of the situation," he added.

Beijing sees the self-ruled island as a part of its territory and insists it should be unified with the mainland, by force if necessary.

It launched large-scale military drills around Taiwan last month, following the American delegation's visit.

The US arms sale agreed on Friday still needs to be voted on by the strongly pro-Taiwan US Congress.

The package includes a $655m radar warning system and $355m for 60 Harpoon missiles, which are capable of sinking ships.

It includes $85.6m for Sidewinder surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles, according to the Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency.

A spokesperson for the Department of State said the deal was "essential for Taiwan's security", and called on Beijing "to cease its military, diplomatic and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue".

"These proposed sales are routine cases to support Taiwan's continuing efforts to modernise its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability," the spokesperson said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-62775544
 
TBM,

I think a reality check is in order. 60 HARPOONs against a flotilla of 300 ships isn't decisive.

True, but it does add one more variable to the CCP risk assessment. They still do not have the amphibious capability to pull off a landing that everyone could see coming before the troops board the ships. Concerning Ukraine they cannot be sure what the U.S. will do vis a vis coming to Taiwan's aid. Another variable to ponder. The CCP is slowly getting pissed off by the Quad alliance which is really more economic than military. In the end the only way they are going to get Taiwan is to take it. They can try coercion, they can marshall all their leverage, but in the end the Taiwanese want nothing to do with them. I can't see a split existence where the Taiwanese maintain their personal freedoms, looking at you Hong Kong. So best to arm Taiwan defensively with enough weapons to complicate the risk assessment and make the cost high enough to them in the military and economic spheres. After that cross your fingers because pride and face are jokers in the deck...
 
Are Cross-Strait Relations Dead?
By: John S. Van Oudenaren
September 9, 2022 The Jamestown Foundation China Brief

https://jamestown.org/program/are-cr...elations-dead/


Kuomintang (KMT) Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia led a delegation to China in August, which occurred in the immediate aftermath of the extensive live-fire exercises that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted around Taiwan following U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit.

The trip by the number two figure in Taiwan’s main opposition party elicited a torrent of domestic criticism, including from KMT politicians. The timing of the visit was doubly poor for the KMT as it not only coincided with China’s escalation of military pressure but also came as the campaign season for Taiwan’s November 26 local elections kicked off.
 
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