I am guessing that we will get basic package, without BVR missiles and SCALP's and that price is higher due to fact that we are not in the NATO. The road started in the mid 80'es finally gets its logical conclusion.
Serbian Air Force- Stuck at the crossroads.
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I am guessing that we will get basic package, without BVR missiles and SCALP's and that price is higher due to fact that we are not in the NATO. The road started in the mid 80'es finally gets its logical conclusion.
I'm intrigued if you also get a deal on engine maintenance/replacement.
There are a lot of commotions around that issue, some suggesting that it is a large deal package for the maintenance center and maybe even manufacturing of some parts. Our delegation was in full force, I mean everyone that matters went to France. On the side note, they are prepared to spend some serious coin and the rumors for the second squadron are in the air but what type is unknown for now. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised if they would purchase used Typhoons from RAF, that seems the most likely option in my opinion. Also new helicopters from airbus are on table.
I really don't know what has gone into them, they went completely berserk in the last two months with acquisitions both foreign and domestic.
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The main issue that Serbia has, with conventional airframes,is the lack of strategic depth. In other words, the question of our air defenses and air force is not the question of missile batteries and aircraft, its the lack of worthy places for air bases. Hypothetically speaking, even if we get F-22 or Su-57 it won't matter, simply because our air bases are too close to the border and in range from artillery or drone strikes. The only viable option for effective air force in our case is a functional VTOL aircraft and those are a nightmare to design let a lone to manufacture.
I have to ask the obvious question. Who from?
All the states bordering Serbia are either NATO members or on well the pathway to becoming members - except for Kosovo! And none of them have much if any appetite for such an attack given the impact doing so would have on their status in NATO and their relationship with the EU. Meanwhile although Serbia's current government has shown zero interest in joining NATO that door has been left open should future governments ever change their mind. So while (given the region) I suppose terrorist attacks might be imaginable deliberate military strikes on your airbases by one of your neighbors with the intention of destroying the Serbian air force would seem to be a little ... far fetched?
The question and the problem that arises from it, is based on "can" rather on "will". To put it bluntly, the riddle is, can our air bases be destroyed,from the ground before we can react. By whom and why,is irrelevant and the answer is yes. Historical evidence and the experience from the wars that Serbia fought, shows the need for the VTOL aircraft that will serve as a point based interceptor and with force multiplier capacity that can be achieved either trough quality or quantity.Greece and Turkey are both in NATO but that didn't helped in the case of Cyprus and multiple other incidents that those two had for decades. Our case is even worse, because we are surrounded with countries (except Romania) that have claims on our land for centuries and are not eager to drop those claims just like that.
Just 12 days ago we had an incident, where we had a breach of airspace and fighters were ordered to scramble. The object was located over the city of Valjevo and the response time was 10 minutes. However the MiG's that were scrambled were not able to find the intruder. GM 400 was the radar that detected the intrusion. Back in the 90'es, while I was on active duty, there was a map in the base HQ, that dealt with the strike missions from Bulgaria. The map had time-to-target estimates and all of them were under 5 minutes and that was from cold war era, so, 10 minutes response time, is not enough for us.
Rafale is a good airplane,but for a "normal" country. Problem is, that Serbia, for one reason or another is not a normal country. Also this is not some sort of Balkan's arms race, our MiG's air worthiness expires in 2030 and with the situation with Russia and the sanctions, they cannot be maintained, hence we need to find other solutions for protecting airspace.
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Sounds more like a reason to be a member of NATO and integrated into it's early warning and air defense networks than it is an argument for VTOL fighter jets. There are lots of small nations in Europe with exactly the same problem and they all seem to be able to cope.
But Serbia is an exception.
The argument for the VTOL comes from a problem of how to defend an area that is 500 km long 250 km wide and goes 40 km into the air, that, in the case of war, has no lines of supply and can rely only on domestic resources. It is almost totally surrounded by all sides with a potentially hostile nations that have genocidal tendencies (Bulgaria WW1, Croatia and various Muslim elements WW 2) so surrender is not an option,because it equals death.Our historical experience confirms this hypothesis.
If we join NATO we become target for Russia, if we join Russia we became target for NATO, so remaining neutral is our only path but that needs to be supported with a lot of force in all areas. Don't fall for that bogus narrative that Russia sees Serbia as friend or an ally, the minute we make a decision that disturbs their plans they will not hesitate to club us. They have a proven historical track record in that area just as West does. We are expendable pawns on the board that had a misfortune to become self aware and the first realization was that we are still on a chess board. We were suckers in both 19 and 20th century, suffered greatly by the delusions and paid heavy price for that insanity. Self preservation is now our only interest.
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In terms of size? As I stated earlier your problems are no different or more serious than any other small European nation. In terms of politics? You either have to choose a side and live with the consequences or else? Just stay neutral and don't bother having any sort of real air force at all! (In the hope that no-one thinks your worth bothering with as a result.) You can't have your cake and eat it to, it's one or the other. So make a decision!
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But they are...
We tried both sides through out our history, on multiple occasions and it sucked every time. Stay neutral and have kick ass air force and whole specter of deterrents is a preferable choice. Currently we are thin on that matter but at least we are moving in good direction. Those three nuclear reactors will finally remove that idiotic nationalistic romanticism that doomed us in both 19th and 20th century. Don't worry about us, no one would dare to touch France's nuclear dumpster but we need to be extra serious if we want to survive. It's time for us to finally grow up.
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The two months deadline hasn't passed yet and first cracks appear in the Rafale acquisition deal, regarding finances. It doesn't matter, its too late now. The countdown has begun yesterday.
The destruction of S-400 is a proof that my analysis is right. We have no choice but VTOL option.
The destruction of S-400 is a proof that my analysis is right. We have no choice but VTOL option.
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More arguments for vtol point base defense fighter for us.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/10/...n-su57-stealth-fighter-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/10/...n-su57-stealth-fighter-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
The deadline has passed regarding Rafale acquisition and not a word has been mentioned regarding that matter. Meanwhile, a new buzz has emerged, saying that, now, Serbia is interested in buying used Greek Mirage 2000's as a stop gap measure for aging fleet of MiG-29's. However, with the situation in Ukraine developing into a prelude for full scale s...storm, that scenario is highly unlikely. To add a bit of fire to already boiling and seeding Balkan cauldron, recent Croatian announcement for a new acquisition of AH-64 Apache's causes some pretty pathetic and funny reactions among our defense circles. Expected but very funny. Circus keeps rolling its act, for how long, remains to be seen.
I'm sorry but you keep going on as if you expect an imminent war with Serbia's immediate neibhours. Why? Croatia is a member of NATO and while it could theoretically launch an unprovoked war of aggression on any of it's neighbors doing so with see it immediately at risk of expulsion from both NATO and the EU with serious impacts on its economy resulting. Why would Croatia want even to attack Serbia? Why would Bulgaria, Romania or Montenegro want one? You may as well be worrying about an imminent invasion from Mars as a looming conflict with any of your other neighbors and for the exactly same reasons as is the case with Croatia. They have no sane reason to want one!
Sure there might be a chance of some future conflict with or in Kosovo or Bosnia but even if that were to happen neither country is as militarily powerful as Serbia and again neither country want's to risk the ire of NATO and the EU by starting a war since they're both ultimately dependent on these institutions for their ongoing survival.
Lastly Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Slovakia etc. They are ALL geographically smaller than Serbia and none of them have any intrinsic problem operating conventional fixed wing combat aircraft from conventional runways. Why should Serbia so be different? All of Europe has faced the traumatic consequences of the previous century's wars and all of them have survived and gone on to prosper through mutual co-operation. Why can't Serbia do the same?
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Because the rule in the "balance of power" game is not based on "Will" but on "Can" and it dictates that if Croatia is more powerful than Serbia it will launch an attack. Its reality, nothing more. That is the main reason for ongoing arms race in the Balkans and those things, well, never end well. Oh, but they do. Unfortunately discussing the reasons for it, is not the subject of this thread but I will try to explain in the autopsy thread.
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