Serbian Air Force- Stuck at the crossroads.

[Versus]

Today’s decision of Croatian Ministry of Defense, confirmed the rumors that began circulating a week ago, regarding the purchase of 12 Dassult Rafale F3R multi role aircraft.




With this acquisition Croatia will be in the top tier air-force in the Balkans, surpassing the Hungarian Air Force, currently operating SAAB Gripens and Romanian Air force operating F-16 block 15, at least until Bulgaria receives their F-16’s Block 70. This course of development places Serbian Air Force far behind in almost every dimension, regardless of the upgrade programs that it undertook for its aging fleet of MiG 29, purchased and donated by both Russia and Belarus as well as the upgrade program for the J-22 strike aircraft. In addition, the ever increasing tensions between West and Russia, place the SAF in a difficult position in terms of logistics and training, let a lone in the attempts of modernization or even acquisition of new air craft. Serbian MiG 29 are 9.12,9.12 A and 9.13 blocks, which means that their potential of upgrade is very limited and can be raised to the some form of SM variant. Also, the air frames have relatively little life left in them, circa 10 years.

The proposed price tag for their upgrade is 130 million dollars which is hardly justified investment.




In other words, Serbian MiG-29 are no match, upgraded or not, for Croatian Rafales.




Problems that arise form this course of events are many and in itself carry the seeds of possible future conflict, which is why I think that this could be an interesting topic to cover, because from what I was able to gather, the nature of the problems that SAF faces do not differ much from the problems that other AF’s have. Also SAF suffers from some very unique issues that are not applicable to other air-forces and are quite weird in nature.


So, without further a due, meet the S.A.F.

 

[Versus]

On May 21[SUP]st[/SUP], Serbia officially retired its fleet of MiG 21 aircraft, after 58 years of service. This left Serbian Air Force fleet with 14 MiG-29 and 16 J-22 attack aircraft as the main offensive component. In addition there is also a fleet of 14 G-4 jet trainers that can be converted for light ground attack role. Further more, there is newly acquired fleet of Chinese CACS CH-92 UCAV’s. This composition of air frames, points out that the Serbian Air force, sees CAS and low level strike missions, as its main mission. In contrast to the fixed wing aircraft, helicopter fleet has been significantly strengthen and upgraded, with the acquisition of Mi-35 attack helicopters and Airbus H-145 multi role helicopters. To this, additional 29 SA-340 Gazelle fleet, needs to be added.


At the present time, the modernization of J-22 attack aircraft is one of the main projects of Serbian defense industry, colloquially known as J-22 V 2.0 in the media. This modernization is deep and it is focused on a 2 seat variants of the aircraft. Its main goal is the improve capabilities of the aircraft by adding new avionics, targeting and navigation equipment as well as integrating new types of precision guided munition.


As media reports, the main armament of the J-22 V.2.0 will be newly developed AGM VRVZ-200, in 200 mm caliber with the operational range of 40 kilometers (when launched from the altitude of 8 km) and it has a 50 kg warhead. The missile has an inertial guidance system and in the terminal phase it relies on TV or thermal imaging camera for targeting acquisition. The missile has a data link with the aircraft via the ASVL-500 pod.

Other missile that is also in focus is the AGM VRVZ-24, 240 mm caliber, 123 kg warhead with the operational range of 10 km, when launched from the altitude of 4 km).


Aircraft is also capable of carrying a wide variety of bombs and unguided rockets, most of them of Western origin, such as AGM-65 B Maverick, Durandal runway bombs, BL-755 cluster bombs and various types of soviet era bombs.


The history of J-22 is full of controversies.


The project started in the 70es and was purely political in nature. The main mission of the aircraft was propaganda. During the 70es, first cracks began to appear in the fabric of Yugoslavia and the communist leadership, needed urgently to restore confidence in the Yugoslavian way of life, communist party and the faith in the president Tito’s rule. Tito was a proxy dictator that skillfully balanced between East and the West in order to remain in power. However, he wasn’t immortal and during the 70es his was on a dying side of life. In order to reassure the public regarding the vitality of the system that he represented, the idea of a supersonic military aircraft was born. One that will show the world that we can deal with technological challenges. The fact that sound barrier was broken by Chuck Yeager back in 1947 was of no concern, since the message wasn’t intended to the parts of the population that can read and write, but to the “less fortunate” majority, whom was starting to fell stagnation anxiety.




Since the matter was urgent, there wasn’t time for true development of the air frame so the Yugoslavian government decided to take a short cut and acquire blue prints via its spy network. Allegedly it succeed by acquiring some of the blueprints for the SEPCAT Jaguar.




It was clear from the start, that Yugoslavia will not be able to develop the aircraft such as Jaguar. So the new project kept the initial layout, twin engine, high wing configuration. For the power plants, the aircraft got the Rolls-RoyceViper 633-47 turbo jet engines, western avionics and ordinance. It appeared at the time, that Yugoslavia was leaning more and more towards the NATO than to the Warsaw pact. It seemed so until it decided to F..it up.

During the 70es, the situation in the Middle East was heating up and there was an real threat of serious energy disruptions. Combined with the growing urban population, Yugoslavia decided to build a big ass dam on the river Danube on its border with Romania. So in order to secure the deal, Yugoslavia also made a defense contract with the Romania of building a new aircraft. Yes, the J-22 which in Romania became known as IAR-93 Vultur. Since Yugoslavia bought the license to produce Viper-633-47 and now had a cooperation with Romania, this meant that Romania was an Warsaw pact country that operated full standardized NATO airplane. Needles to say, the British were furious and this was a mistake that they didn’t forgot till this day.


At the end Yugoslavia got the aircraft and the dam.


Since this F..up happened, the aircraft development was halted and it remained under powered and under developed. Since the metallurgy was primitive, the aircraft was heavy. But since it was never intended to be of any military use, that wasn’t a big deal. It was specifically designed to fly fast at low level, but not because it needed to do deep interdiction strikes, but to amuse the crowds and re assure the ones whom had the doubts in the reality of Yugoslavia. It was an Potemkin show off air frame.


Luckily for it, the breakup of Yugoslavia will actually show that J-22 can fly and can deal a lot of damage, especially in Bosnia, during the “Operation Corridor 92”. That operation was J-22 prime time where its potential was fully used. Bosnian Serbs were flying sortie after sortie until finally the corridor was secured and the link with Serbia established. During the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, J-22 were used despite the loss of air supremacy, with only one aircraft being lost due to either mechanical failure or KLA ground fire.


Not only that the J-22 could deal a lot of damage it could also take a lot of punishment, thanks to its sturdy construction. Also its construction proved to be air worthy. Originally it was planned to last 24 years but after inspection it was concluded that its actually twice as much, which is why it was chosen for the upgrade program. The aircraft is relatively easy and cheap to maintain and its long service ensures that there is no shortage of mechanics that can service it.


All in all, this aircraft happened to be a very happy accident.

 

[Versus]

Old and new cockpits for the J-22

 

[Versus]

Before the hysteria regarding the new Russian stealth starts (spoiler alert, its a solid meh) here is the j 22 low pass.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTyqir09eqA

 

[Versus]

Second in line of domestic air frames is the G-4 "Super Seagull ".
Following the overall advancements in technology and the need to upgrade its fleet of aircraft during the 70'es, Yugoslavia embarked on another project, aimed to produce advanced jet trainer with light ground attack capability. Since it was somewhat less demanding than the J-22, the G-4 was easier to conceptualize and engineer, mainly because the role of the aircraft was more clearly defined. The first prototypes were completed in 1978 and the testing began. The maiden flight happened 1983 and shortly after, the aircraft entered the service where it remains till this day. The aircraft is powered with the same power plant as its predecessor, the G-2, the Viper 632-46 with 17,8 kN of thrust but thanks to the different and more advanced aerodynamics it outperforms the G-2 substantially. The aerodynamic layout is classical, resembling the British Hawk, its a low wing monoplane with one vertical stabilizer, fixed elevators and swept wings without anhedral layout.

The aircraft is 12,25 meters in lenght, with the wingspan of 9,88 meters and 4,03 meters in height. The wing area is 19,5 square meters. Maximum speed is 920 km/h (491 mph) in a clean configuration and at 13.000 feet (6000 km). Its cruise speed is 550 km/h (340 mph). Stall speed is 97 mph or 180 km/h.
In the light ground attack role, aircraft is armed with a gun pod, containing the gsh-23, gast operated 23 mm twin barrel cannon. Under the each wing it has two hard points that can take various types of ordinance, ranging from unguided bombs and rocket pods.

During the 90es, it was planned for the aircraft to be upgraded with two additional hard points, new avionics and two infra red seeking missiles at the wingtips for self defense. That version had an M, for modernized added to its name. However, wars of the 90es sealed the fate of that modernization. Again, during the 2000 there was another attempt to upgrade the aircraft, this time with more digital avionics but that project faded away in favor of J-22, which was judged to be more suitable airframe for modernization.

 

[Versus]

Some photos of G4 and its modernized variant (only for testing)

 

[Versus]

During the wars of the 90es, G-4 saw some combat usage. In total 3 aircraft were lost due to ground fire while several of them were damaged. The Yugoslavian Air force quickly realized that G-4 was more valuable as a trainer and that other air frames should take the combat roles. Nevertheless the airframe proved to be quite sturdy, The G-4 with the serial number 23725, lost its vertical stabilizer three times during the war but was repaired and returned to service. During the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, 23 of them were destroyed on the ground, including the complete Yugoslavian airforce's acrobatic team. As a personal experience, during my deployment in Kosovo, I saw two of them flying low over our heads and 10 seconds later there was an F-14 right behind them also in a low level pass. It was surreal situation in a way and the bad day for the cat, cause it didn't got the kills that day.

Unfortunately such luck was nowhere to be found with its older brother G-2, in a light attack variant, the J-21, which was the aircraft with highest number of losses. Despite that the J-21 did some amazing missions during the war.

 

[Versus]

The J-21 is a single seat, light attack aircraft, developed from G-2 Seagull trainer aircraft which can be seen here with F-22's ( https://www.airliners.net/photo/Untitled/Soko-G-2-Galeb/2816488/L ) at Tyndall AFB in Florida. I am not sure but I think that this one belongs to John Travolta. The G-2's are claimed to be very fun aircraft to fly and are praised and loved by many pilots around the world, due to their flight characteristics and low maintenance costs. The airframe is sturdy and very forgiving . This is due to the fact that the G-2 was the first domestic jet that was adopted by the Yugoslavian military and it was a bit over engineered. Its origins can be traced to the F-84 Thunderjet, which was a primary ground attack role aircraft for the Yugoslavia at the time.

This is an old bird, its first flight on July 3rd 1965 but it still flies and it is the primary aircraft for the Serbian Airforce acrobatic team. Several of them fly here, as a civilian aircraft.

The development of J-21 started as a the replacement for the Thunderjets. In the mid 60es the F-84's started to show its age and Yugoslavia in its many political shifts, was leaning from the west towards Soviet Union so in order to avoid possible problems with its combat aircraft, it started developing its own jet. It uses R&R Viper 531 jet engine with 13, 32 kN of thrust. The aircraft is 10.88 meters in lenght, with the wingspan of 10.56 meters and the height of 3.64 meters. Total wing area is 19.43 square meters. Maximum speed is 820 km/h with the cruising speed of 740 km/h. G load limits are +8/-4. The aircraft is armed with two 50 cal browing machine guns and on 8 external hard points it can carry 1320 kg of ordinance in total.

 

[Versus]

Operation Deny Flight, February 28th 1994.

In 1992, during the withdrawal of Yugoslavian Federal Army from Bosnia, due to certain logistic errors, one battery of M-87 MRLS *Hurricane* was left behind in the weapons production facility, located in the city of Travnik. At the time, the M-87 was the most powerful land based weapon system in the arsenal of Yugoslavian Federal Army. With its 12 barrel 282 mm rocket launchers and the 50 km of effective range, this weapon system was very potent piece of hardware. At the time of Federal Army withdrawal, these systems were incomplete but in January 1994, Serbian intelligence was starting to get information that the systems are being completed and that the manufacturing of rockets has begun. In February, those intelligence reports were confirmed as true. This course of events, prompted the Bosnain Serb military leadership to devise a plan to destroy the launchers, rockets and the production facility, because M-87 could seriously shift the balance towards the Bosnian Muslim side. The clock was ticking and a mission planning was put into action. Considering the fact that the targets were located deep into the enemy territory, airstrike was chosen as the best option. However, the NATO has declared the no fly zone over Bosnia and that placed this whole operation under a great risk. However, M-87's threat posed a bigger risk so the operation was green lit.
It was decided that the pilots needed to be strictly volunteers and all eight pilots from the 105 fighter bomber squadron from Republika Srpska Krajina (Croatian Serbs) and 92 combined air brigade (Bosnian Serbs) , answered the call. They were transported from Banjaluka to the Udbine airbase, on February 27th. In order to remain undetected as long as possible, the low-low flight plan was adopted with terrain following. This meant increased fuel consumption and lower speed but it did offered better chance for the success of the mission. All pilots were made aware that this mission could be an one way mission. Regardless, they all accepted it.

In the early morning of February 28th, all was set. Units for electronic surveillance, radar crews and other combined assets, had a complete overview of the Bosnian airspace and were monitoring the NATO communications. The communications were established with Banjaluka and the signals for "go"/"no go" were set, depending on the position of NATO aircraft. However, at that crucial moment, when the time for the take off came, there was a miscommunication with the command center. The person on the other side, didn't know the code words for the operation and that prompted the fears that the plan was busted which lead to the immediate commencing of the operation. So at 6 am, the entire group, of six j-21 and two j-22 took off from the the Udbine aribase.

After 21 minutes into the flight, they were picked up by the NATO AWACS and one of the j-22 pilots spotted the F-16. He informed the J-21 flight lead about it, whom confirmed that he also saw the F-16. The decision was to proceed with the mission.

All six j-21 attacked the weapon production facility in Travnik, destroying the factory and the M-87's, while J-22 attacked and destroyed ordinance production facility.

That was the time when F-16 engaged them. According to the NATO sources, F-16 launched the first missile (I think that it was AMRAAM) at 6:45 and than two Sidewinders, at 6:47 and 6:48. Considering that J-21 doesn't have any kind of warning system or counter measures, all three missiles destroyed the aircraft. Fourth J-21 was hit by sidewinder from another F-16. Three Serbian pilots were killed due to failure to eject or the parachute failure to deploy due to low level flight. Fifth J-21 had a ground collision. Only one damaged J-21 was able to return to base. J-22's also returned safely.

Two USAF F-16's, (F-16 block 40, number 83-2137/RS and F-16 block 40, number 89-2009/RS) on that day, scored the first air victory in the history of the NATO.

 

[Versus]

Going back in time, during the 50es, Yugoslavia experimented a lot with the jet technology and some quite exotic aerodynamics...

 

[Versus]

Out of which the 453 mw was designed for Batman

 

[Versus]

Going further down the timeline, we reach the prop age. The dive bomber with pilot laying was thought to be a great way to reduce G loads. Until the time to jump out of the aircraft came.

 

[Versus]

First fighters, domestically built after the WW2 were S-49 and S-49 C

 

[Versus]

S-49 was actually an further development of IK-3 fighter from the WW2 era.

 

[Versus]

Before IK-3 there was a seagull wing, monoplane, which was the first fighter aircraft produced by Kingdom of Yugoslavia.

 

[Versus]

And finally, we reach the grand grand grand daddy of them all, the Saric-1, first aircraft designed by a Serb, seven years after the Wright brothers.

 

[Versus]

During the WW1, first dogfight between Serbian Airforce and Austro Hungarian airforce happened on August 27th 1914. Officially this was the first Serbian fighter and flown by first Serbian fighter pilot Miodrag Tomic.
On that day,at 17 hrs lieutenant Tomic was on a recon mission over the village Cerovac He was attacked by the Austro Hungarian pilot, one hour into the mission. The Austro Hungarian pilot, from the "Flik 2" unit,fired at him a hail of bullets from Roth–Steyr M1907 gun. Tomic was able to save himself by diving suddenly and avoiding the incoming fire.The Austro Hungarian twin seater, was piloted by Oskar Fekete, while the shooter was Viktor Zebauerr .

Upon landing, Tomic's aircraft aircraft was armed with the captured machine gun. Since his aircraft was a Bleriot XI Tandem, an twin seat aircraf, Tomic got a gunner and two of them, became the only armed aircraft on the frontline. Tomic will become the pilot with the highest number of victories in the Serbian Airforce, during the WW1. As a token to a gender equality, his wife,Danica Tomic. after the war, became the first female pilot in Serbia and later on, she became the first female certified pilot in Kingdom of Yugoslavia.

After the WW1 ended Tomic remained in the sevice. Between two wars,on one occasion, he was a host for the US military delegation, where he met Douglas MacArthur on September 28th1933.

When the the Nazis attacked Yugoslavia he commanded the fighter squadrons located in the city of Novi Sad. As Yugoslavia was overrun and occupied by Germans, Tomic was captured and taken to the Osnabrück camp where he remained until the end of the war. He never returned to Yugoslavia. From 1945 till 1950 he was the department chief for civilian personnel in the first French Air Force division, located in Paris. From France he and his wife immigrated to the United States where he remained till the end of his days. He retired at the rank of a colonel.

He's grave is in Libertyville, Illinois.

 

[Versus]

If we want to go into nitty gritty details, the origins of Serbian Airforce can be traced to the end of 19th century. At the time, the Serbian military brass added the baloon unit to its ranks, although it didn't had any baloons or men to "fly them". The first airmen,Kosta Miletic, was sent to Russia, for baloon training, and in 1902 became the first airmen in the Serbian army. In 1909, Serbian military got its first baloons, adding the air component to its capabilities.
Officially, the airforce command was formed on December 24th 1912. First combat mission (recon), happened on March 29th 1913, during the Balkan wars.

 

[Versus]

Going even further into the depths of sands of time, we can find this Serb. His name is Ognjenislav Kostovic Stepanovic. He was born in Wieselburg, Austria, in 1851. However, the majority of his life, he spent in Saint Petersburg where he worked for the Russian Military. Ognjenislav was an eccentric engineer and is credited with the invention of the early composite material, called arbonite (plywood). He patented the invention and the production in the US, on September 4th 1906. In 1880 he embarked on project of designing the controllable ballon, but his invention was destroyed in a fire and thus never made to flight testing. However, he developed the gasoline engine for it around the same time when the Daimler Benz developed his engine. The only difference was that the Daimler engine was a single piston engine with 3 HP while Kostovic's engine was 8 piston boxer engine with 100 HP output. He was a bit paranoid and he reported his engine in 1888 to the authorities and than waited for 4 more years for the patent. Some sources state that he made a whole range of inventions that were way ahead of its time. Flying models of helicopters, airplanes, ornitocopters, sumbaries etc. One of his most weirdest inventions, was the air torpedo, which is in fact a guided projectile. The only difference was that it wasn't a rocket but a series of controlled dirigibles.
How much of this is true and how much is just a fiction or propaganda, remains to be seen but over all, he was a quite smart guy. At the end of his career, he designed the electric vehicle for ladies.
He died on October 16th 1916 in St. Petersburg.

 

[Versus]

Now, after all this one question remains. Why, after all of these things, we are at the point where we are. The biggest problem that Serbian Airforce has now days, is not the hardware, but the lack of pilots. Not only that, but the interest for the profession has seen a significant drop. It has been 119 years since the first Serb took to the skies, Serbian military recognized the third dimension of the war pretty much at the same time as other European armed forces, made significant efforts to master the air, was among first nations to take warfare into the skies and considering economic power or lack of it, made an amazing progress in the field, showed that it has the brains and the bal.s to use it, now, faces the biggest crisis since its inception. The loss of will to fly.

Unfortunately, I will have to jump into my own mouth this time and borrow the answer from the autopsy thread. Reasons for this situation can be found in the days before WW2 broke out and as usual, those reasons bear the mark of the lion's paw.

There is no better way to tell this story than making it start during the 90es and no better event than the one happened on March 27th 1999...

Yes, the "Operation Allied force" and the "Vega 31". But with a quite different twist this time.

 

[Versus]

The NIghhawk.

Operation "Allied Force" was second NATO campaign, waged in the Balkans and it lasted from March 24th 1999 till June 10th 1999. On March 27th 1999, a F-117 stealth aircraft was on its mission over the Belgrade, piloted by Lt. Col. Darrell Patrick "Dale" Zelko. After completing its bomb run, Zelko started its egress to Aviano AFB in Italy. At 8:15, Serbian air defense SA-3 Goa launched its missiles, hitting the Zelko's F-117. Zelko was able to bail out and was later recovered by the CSAR team and flown back to Aviano. This event was media hyped to oblivion both in Serbian press and in the world. Needles to say it sparked a fanboys war on many forums. All in all, it was an unpleasant blow to the USAF pride and one of the reasons for retiring the entire fleet of F-117. In the longer run it prompted the rethinking of the stealth as a concept which lead to new approaches in the design of airframes and different tactics of its usage.
Remains of the F-117 are now the part of the airforce museum in Belgrade and Zelko meet the SA-3 commander , retired colonel Zoltan Dani. whom was officer in charge of the battery that shoot him down. Their encounter was recorded in a movie called "The second meeting".
Here are some shoots from the movie.

For me, this event was never something that needed to be elevated to the realm of a myth. There was nothing surreal or supernatural in it. This is the reality of war, this is its face and the true form. This was purely rational and logical set of circumstances with equally logical outcome. I held this belief during and a long time after the war. But after digging trough the layers of time in the autopsy thread, I've found certain pieces that tied the story and made the puzzle complete.

Shooting down the F-117 wasn't only an action of Serbian Air Defense against action of the USAF. It was a mystical ritual aimed to remove the curse that has been cast on the Serbian Airforce on that same day but 58 years ago.

March 27th 1941 was the day when a group of officers from the Royal Yugoslavian Air force, lead the coup which rejected a treaty that was previously signed between Yugoslavia and Nazi Germany and directly lead to the attack of Nazi Germany on Kingdom of Yugoslavia on April 6th 1941. In history it is known as "March coup d'état of 1941". With that event, the entire course of history of Serbia was changed and that event set us on a course that ended with 1999 and the operation "Allied Force". In some mystical transcendental cosmic sense, shooting down the F-117 was an attempt of removing the guilt for that and setting the the things right. It was done so, because in the aftermath of that event, evidence was found that a kitty was present at the time and that it brought a present for the officers.

A bag with 100.000 pounds in it.

In that light, F-117 was a wrong target and a collateral damage of a spin that started in the 19th century.

 

[Versus]

General Dusan Simovic, chief of the Royal Yugoslavian Air Force in 1941 and the main conspirator of the March's coup.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5dA...&start_radio=1

 

[Versus]

This still makes a bitter taste after all these years...

 

[Versus]

Before the draft, I had only bits and pieces of this story and didn't had the time to analyze it in detail. All that was about to change once I entered the service. I was selected by the Air Force and that was my initial branch. Later on I was transferred to the infantry and deployed to Kosovo in 1999 and that was the moment when I felt it. The absolute hate that other military branches have towards us. Sometimes I think that they hate us because they fear us and they fear us because we wear the Simovic's curse, the mark of the traitor and oh boy, did I felt it on my own skin. It went so far that at one moment I was about to be put in front of the firing squad . On other occasion I was nearly left behind by my squad, when the truck broke down and they sent me to secure the position while the truck was being fixed and once the truck was repaired, they nearly left without me.

On the wider scale, in the former Yugoslavia, this stance was only exaggerated. That is why the majority of personnel in the Yugoslavian Air Force and Air defense, consisted out of Slovenians and Croats. Serbia filled up the ranks of the Army aka the ground forces. Or to borrow the phrase form "Starship troopers", Croats and Slovenians do the flying while the Serbs do the dying. But even in that disproportional state, handful of Serbian Air Force men were not blind to the events of the 80'es. They knew that the communism was finished and that future lies in peaceful integration with the West. It is very little known fact, that during the 80'es, there was a very small group of Serbian officers within Yugoslavian Air Force, whom was lobbying for the adoption of F-15 as the next gen fighter for the Yugoslavian Air Force, aside from Mirage 2000, F-20 Tigershark and the F-16. Saying that publicly was of course the heresy and the group was dealt with in silence. It was the Croat, Anton Tus, whom was the chief of Yugoslavia's Air Force, that made the decision to purchase MiG 29. It happened in a semi secretive manner, in a air show in Finland 1986, where the Tus made the decision which will cripple the Serbian Airforce with MiG 29's. Of course, Anton Tus deflected to the Croatian side when the breakup began.

 

[Versus]

The mark of the traitor.

Simovic's curse is the main self destruction mechanism, built in into the Serbian Airforce. As such, it is the main reason for irrational behavior and actions of its members. It is the cause of the death drive within the branch.

The story of Simovic's curse, is a part of much larger context, that will be analyzed in the autopsy thread but for now, I will just say that belongs to the containment measures, applied by the United Kingdom in order to contain Russian expansion. It is a mechanism that protects England's interests and as such it is a part of British foreign policy towards Serbia since the 19th century. That narrative remains unchanged till this day.

Relations between United Kingdom and Serbia trough out the history, are mega complex and that is an understatement. Those relations have so many twists that the whole thing is so messed up that it is almost impossible to untangle it. It is so F.. up on multiple levels and multiple dimensions that it hurts the mind. Every instance of that relationship has the duality to start with and often branches in multiple directions and serves different goals. Those goals than branch out across the time so if they are allied in the present, they are hostile decades later. If they are hostile in the present, they actually prove to be allied again, decades later. Everything has the duality built in from the get go. It actually shows the superiority of British foreign policy and the way how England protects its interests and how it secures its future. It is dedicated effort and any attempt to comprehend it otherwise will spell the doom for the other party. Above all, England is real and England is serious.

Serbia is not and this disproportion means that in that game, Serbia will always loose and bear the consequences for it.

Yugoslavia as a project, was an artificial construction that served as the buffer and the shock absorber between East and he West in one dimension and between North and the South in another. As such, its foundation is the grave in which the corpse of an idea of Serbia as a national state was placed. That is why, the Yugoslavia as a house is a haunted house. It is haunted by the restless spirit of dead Serbian nation state, whom was betrayed and killed in the 19th century with the adoption of the pan slavic national program. That haunted spirit is the main cause of the horrors that others experience and the primary reason for their hatred towards us.

This was the dynamics that plagued the Kingdom of Yugoslavia in the eve of WW2. Aware that the there is no sufficient national unity to confront the Nazi Germany, Yugoslavian authorities made the pact with the Germans. It was a raw deal, Hitler will get safe passage trough Yugoslavia, its resources and in return he will provide the security and the access to the Aegean sea. Yugoslavian side didn't had any choice but to accept it. This treaty was known as Cvetkovic-Macek treaty and it was the least evil proposition form all other options, because it didn't include open violence. This course of events made both England and US very worried.

US dispatched William Donovan, a special envoy of Theodore Roosevelt, on January 23rd, to Yugoslavia whom stated that US will not support Yugoslavia claims and rights at the peace table in case it proceeds with the agreement with the Germany.

Winston Churchill was far more direct.

Enter the S.O.E.

England had a well established network of agents in Yugoslavia and trough it, they carried out the operation that lead to the coup, which nullified the treaty that Yugoslavia had with Germany. In total they spent 500.000 pounds stearling on it. All conspirators from the Yugoslavian army were from the Royal Airforce branch.

With the coup done, treaty rejected, Simovic and the bunch well paid, Serbian Orthodox church unit of SOE started to spin the heroic Kosovo narative, most vividly captured in the radio broadcast of the Serbian patriarch Mihalio Dozic whos words still chill me to the bone today. From the military perspective SOE started the spin that Yugoslavia will need to hold on just for couple of days and that England and the allies will come to its aid. Just like in WW1 and beat the Jerry's just like in old times. Serbian military brass was so hooked on this fictional narrative that it swallowed the story hook line and sinker. And the fishing rod I might add.

On April 6th, on the day of Simovic's daughter wedding, at 6 am in the morning, combined force of 243 bombers and 120 fighter escorts of the Luftwaffe, converged onto Belgrade, dropping 360 long tons of high explosive and Incendiary bombs in three waves. Belgrade was reduced to the burning rubble. Many of the civilians didn't made to the bomb shelters because they never made it out of the bed. Bombs hit the Belgrade zoo, adding the lions and tigers to the nightmare.

Legend says, that as the first explosions rocked the Belgrade, in the SOE office in London, bubbly was poured into the crystal and cheering could be heard for the job well done.

Naturally, British never came nor the allies. Not even the "mother Russia".

But the international communist nutjobs fresh from the Spanish civil war did and Yugoslavia turned into an absolute slaughterhouse for the Serbs. Literary,

From that day, the Serbian Air Force bears the mark of the betrayer till this very day.

 

[Versus]

One of the most horrible example of the perversion of the truth and the twisted narrative that was span after the war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp8Qrtanlts

 

[Versus]

There is nothing we can do, to remedy this. Its history. Problem is, that history tends to repeat itself to those whom don't learn. In our case, we didn't learned it and it repeated in 1999 and now, it appears that it will happen for the third time. Again, we have the same situation. Before WW2 Royal Yugoslavian Ariforce consisted out of a mixture of both German and British fighters. It operated both Hurricanes and Bf-109. Since in order to maintain the fleet, Yugoslavia needed to be in good relationship with both Germany and UK, this meant that, when hostilities began between Uk and Germany, Yugoslavia could not maintain its fleet, because England couldn't deliver the spare parts, because it needed them for the defense and Germany couldn't supply its spare parts because it needed for the attack on Britain. Same goes for the bomber fleet, it had both German, British and Italian bombers and those bombers did fly and attacked German and Italian troops but with very little effect. The domestic fighter, IK-3 did put up the fight but there was only a couple of them that it didn't mattered. Yugoslavian Air Force, prior the WW2 used four types of fuel and 12 different types of oil for its air craft. In other words, it was a logistic nightmare.
Later on, the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia used at first, British Spitfires and American Thunderbolts, than switched to Soviet Yak-3s, than made its own fighter and than again moved to US jets, namely F-86 and F-84, than made the pretty boy G-2 and than moved to MiG-21. Than it made its strike aircraft based on NATO standards, than went into cooperation with the Warsaw pact to develop it which lead to the loss of support from the NATO (obviously) so the aircraft remained half finished.
When the crisis began, during the 90es, sanctions destroyed the logistics and made Yugoslavian Airforce ineffective and a sitting duck for the NATO aircraft.
Now, we are doing the same mistake, procuring the systems form France, Russia and China and since we are locked from all sides, all that is transported by air which makes the price skyrocket.

With the current developments on the global scale, it appears that the war is coming again and again we will not be ready, simply because we refuse to learn the lessons from history and that makes me both mad and sad.

 

[Versus]

The SAF's sad example actually shows a couple of things.

It shows the importance of clear vision when it comes to organizing and equipping something as complex as the air force. The existence of a clear vision is a precursor for everything. It defines the mission, it defines the equipment, it defines the logistics and it defines the training. It defines both strategy and tactics. It also shows the devastating influence of politics on the service it self. The moment you get politics into the service, you are done. This is because the airforce deals operates in the air and there is no fulcrum you can use in order remedy the mistake. Karma gets you instantly. Fly to slow you will stall, fly under the wrong angle and at the wrong speed you will stall and fall into a spin from which you may not recover. Loose your presence in the reality, you will lose situational awareness and get shoot down by the enemy or hit a hill. Gain few pounds and G loads will kill you. Don't invest into education and in few years you will have no pilots and the mechanics no matter what type of aircraft you fly. Try cutting corners during the development and the aircraft will not fly at all or not be able to full fill a mission for which it was designed. It will lose its purpose.

Airforce requires reality and it doesn't take BS, no matter how mesmerizing and pleasing it is to the heart and mind. Problem with the SAF is exactly that, the break with the reality. But that is completely different story and it doesn't belong here.

 

[Versus]

For those whom like history and can't wait for me to reach this segment on the autopsy thread here are the spoiler literature.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journ...3A25784B9245F7
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/112802.pdf
https://books.google.rs/books?id=RV_...201941&f=false
https://www.amazon.com/Churchill-Tit.../dp/B076YCHMQX

 

[Versus]

The current state of affairs doesn't bode well for Serbian side at all. Despite all efforts to modernize and upgrade its air force and air defense, in the light of possible threats, it is not enough. The biggest "challenge" is the Croatian air force and its Rafale's. To the East, Bulgaria is also will get F-16's Block 70. Both countries are aligned and both counters have disputes with Serbia. Also both counters have been engaged in wars against Serbia. In addition, both counters committed genocide against Serbs in both wars. Bulgaria in WW 1 and Croatia in WW2. Between them lies Bosnia where Republika Srpska remains a thorn in both Bosnian Muslim and Bosnian Croat side and on a wider scope, Croatia itself. Gong south we have Sanjak region that connects with Kosovo and than off to Bulgaria.

The most recent news point to the direction of conflict. In Bosnia, a new law has been implemented that forbids the negation of Srebrenica's genocide, which automatically takes away the legitimacy for the existence of Serbian entity and makes it open for the attack.

On June 9th 2021, during the joint exercise between Serbian and Bulgarian Air Forces an incident happened. One MiG 29 of Bulgarian Airforce crashed and pilot was killed. Few days later, Bulgarian journalist, Grigor Lilov,wrote a text or a comment where he accused Serbian Airforce for shooting down the Bulgarian Mig 29. After a month passed, an official report was written by the Bulgarian Defense Ministry stating that the reason for the crash was loss of situational awareness. The version of the event that includes Serbian missile battery, was not even considered. However the alternative narrative is created with Lilov text and that version was commented and elaborated by Croatian media as one of the plausible causes.

This narrative would come very handy for future events that might lead to conflict because it can deny Serbian airforce the opportunity to practice both with SAM's and its pesky fighters, further weakening its ability to defend Serbia when the time comes.

In Kosovo, the question of Northtern Kosovo which is populated with mostly Serbian minority and the municipalities in the southern Serbia mostly populated with Albanian minority represent two hot spots. After the ending of Nato bombing campaign, Kosovo Albanians invaded Serbia and with the local Albanian population started the armed rebellion that lasted till 2001.

Considering that the main Bosnian ally is Turkey and that main Albanian ally is UK,Germany and the US it is highly likely that they will be equipped with drones, following the success of Turkish "Baryaktar UCAV" in recent conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Backed up of usual ground contingent of domestic fighters, foreign mercenaries,advisers, various black ops and special operations, ISIS and "migrants". The most probable course for the conflict would be a joint operation of the coalition of all of them backed up by certain interest groups in the West along side of curbing the Russian influence, evil Serbs, unfinished jobs by the US Democrats from the Clinton era and Dayton agreement etc, narrative from the 19th century.

All in all we have less than two years to find a way to prevent the development of this scenario and with the tightening sanctions against Russia, as the "Charge of the light brigade part 2" nears,it will be harder and harder to get new acquisitions for them or spare parts to maintain existing hardware. We need to find another way.