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Revenue stream?
Import tariffs contributed 1.4% of federal revenues in 1962-2024. Now, assuming that there isn’t a quick reversal when the economy tanks – don’t think a $327 billion (10% of imports) tax hike won’t knock consumer and business spending sideways.

With a 6-month lead time, hoarding kicks in, which means sales fall off the cliff on day 181.

That parallel universe needs to be Trump-free to really work.
 
DOR said:
Revenue stream?
Import tariffs contributed 1.4% of federal revenues in 1962-2024. Now, assuming that there isn’t a quick reversal when the economy tanks – don’t think a $327 billion (10% of imports) tax hike won’t knock consumer and business spending sideways.

With a 6-month lead time, hoarding kicks in, which means sales fall off the cliff on day 181.

That parallel universe needs to be Trump-free to really work.
Click to expand...

Depends on how quickly the 10% gets imposed. Scale it in over a year? Anyway I didn't say it was a good idea (tariffs generally aren't a good long term solution to any problem). Just that if you had to have them then 10% is manageable (compared to known historical rates) and would raise revenue without causing the world's trade system into chaos. As it stands?
 
Again with the raising revenue?
What's that about?

A couple of things to bear in mind:
First, 10% isn't going to protect any infant industries (as if that were the plan).
Second, 10% isn't going to move any large-scale capital investment (including infrastructure!) from a $35/day economy to a $35/hour one (as if that were the plan).
Third, there are many more fair, far more efficient, and far more politically attractive ways to raise useful amounts of revenue.
 
DOR said:
Again with the raising revenue?
What's that about?

A couple of things to bear in mind:
First, 10% isn't going to protect any infant industries (as if that were the plan).
Second, 10% isn't going to move any large-scale capital investment (including infrastructure!) from a $35/day economy to a $35/hour one (as if that were the plan).
Third, there are many more fair, far more efficient, and far more politically attractive ways to raise useful amounts of revenue.
Click to expand...

What is with me? Nothing really. I've already said I'm not a fan of tariffs and don't think they should be in place. Worse than the tariffs themselves however has been Trump's execution of their implementation!. Its been a complete shambles. I've just accepted that in this instance? They're a fait accompli. That being the case?

They will raise revenue, just so long as Trump doesn't decide to compensate 'losing' domestic industries like he did with the farmers back in 2018 and end up spending all that revenue in transfer payments. Which was the case back then & coincidentally did end up consuming almost all the revenue those traffics raised before he dropped them near the end of his term. And again any money raised? If not spent? Could be used to reduce the deficit, however since Trump has also hinted at potential tax cuts (for the rich)?

Basically if I can't change something? I'm looking for any possible benefit, no matter how small that can be derived from an economic event, even hypothetical benefits! And in this case? Sadly it's almost certain they will be exactly that - hypothetical.
 
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Monash said:
What is with me? Nothing really. I've already said I'm not a fan of tariffs and don't think they should be in place. Worse than the tariffs themselves however has been Trump's execution of their implementation!. Its been a complete shambles. I've just accepted that in this instance? They're a fait accompli. That being the case?

They will raise revenue, just so long as Trump doesn't decide to compensate 'losing' domestic industries like he did with the farmers back in 2018 and end up spending all that revenue in transfer payments. Which was the case back then & coincidentally did end up consuming almost all the revenue those traffics raised before he dropped them near the end of his term. And again any money raised? If not spent? Could be used to reduce the deficit, however since Trump has also hinted at potential tax cuts (for the rich)?

Basically if I can't change something? I'm looking for any possible benefit, no matter how small that can be derived from an economic event, even hypothetical benefits! And in this case? Sadly it's almost certain they will be exactly that - hypothetical.
Click to expand...

Don’t assume that the kinds of tariff rates we’re talking about here raise any money at all. There are costs that must be borne when one slaps around the supply/demand curve. Layoffs. Bankruptcies. Unemployment insurance. Lower tax collections from people who can’t make as much money as they used to.

When dealing with the Orange Anti-Christ, looking for any possible benefit is a losing proposition.
 
DOR said:
Don’t assume that the kinds of tariff rates we’re talking about here raise any money at all. There are costs that must be borne when one slaps around the supply/demand curve. Layoffs. Bankruptcies. Unemployment insurance. Lower tax collections from people who can’t make as much money as they used to.

When dealing with the Orange Anti-Christ, looking for any possible benefit is a losing proposition.
Click to expand...

All taxes impose costs. I just pointed out that they do raise revenue and sensible President could use that revenue constructively. But since its Trump we're talking about I'm pretty sure whatever revenue his tariffs do bring in? Is going to pissed away on wall somewhere. In this case possibly even a real wall! :frown:
 
No, all taxes do not, net of other impacts, raise revenue.
Some just make poorer people more miserable.
 
DOR said:
No, all taxes do not, net of other impacts, raise revenue.
Some just make poorer people more miserable.
Click to expand...

What was the quote? Something like "The art of collecting taxes is like plucking a goose! In both cases the aim is to get the most amount of feathers for the least amount of hissing.'
 
The best level of tax on imports is what is needed to pay for necessary examination, registration, classification, documentation, etc., of the imported item. Anything more than that needs a really, really convincing argument ... which is totally absent this year.
 
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