NATO membership for Sweden and Finland

[Steph]

Whatever the numbers, I agree with TrumpCentrist: NATO would likely disappear if the US left. That seems to be no problem for Trump as the treaty is "so unfair".
Trump has repeatedly said that if NATO members don't "pay their bill," he won't defend them. In concrete terms, this means not implementing Article 5 of the treaty. And not implementing this article means de facto leaving the treaty. I don't know if Trump will do it (and I'm in no hurry to find out), but it's definitely a threat to leave NATO.

And when the question is put directly to him, the answer is somewhat confused, but leaving NATO is not excluded :

 

[tbm3fan]

Trump is a simpleton. The only way he will do something is if he is paid. Pro bono is not in his vocabulary when it concerns him. Of course he loves those who do pro bono work for him. So for the next four years Trump, Inc. = USA Inc. It should be pretty damn obvious by now.

 

[Monash]

Whatever the numbers, I agree with TrumpCentrist: NATO would likely disappear if the US left. That seems to be no problem for Trump as the treaty is "so unfair".
Trump has repeatedly said that if NATO members don't "pay their bill," he won't defend them. In concrete terms, this means not implementing Article 5 of the treaty. And not implementing this article means de facto leaving the treaty. I don't know if Trump will do it (and I'm in no hurry to find out), but it's definitely a threat to leave NATO.

And when the question is put directly to him, the answer is somewhat confused, but leaving NATO is not excluded :

If the US wadsto withdraw one of the most likely outcomes in the medium term is that Europe would cease to buy major American wepon systems and over time build their own. Systems like the F35 would still be bought because the nation's involved are already committed. But 6th gen fighters and similar advanced systems currently in development? No

That decision would in turn cripple thecAmerican arms industry because NATO members are currently their biggest customers by a long shot and help defray the cost of new systems for the US taxpayer. You can also probably forget access to European bases and airspace without special permission as well which severs the shortest route from the US to the middle East.

Trump can't have it both ways if he wants to forgo the disadvantages of NATO membership whatever he thinks those are? He also has to logo the benefits. And he grossly overestimated the burden placed on the US by being a member of the 'club' because he consistantly ignores the assets other members bring to the party.

 

[Steph]

If the US wadsto withdraw one of the most likely outcomes in the medium term is that Europe would cease to buy major American wepon systems and over time build their own. Systems like the F35 would still be bought because the nation's involved are already committed. But 6th gen fighters and similar advanced systems currently in development? No

That decision would in turn cripple thecAmerican arms industry because NATO members are currently their biggest customers by a long shot and help defray the cost of new systems for the US taxpayer. You can also probably forget access to European bases and airspace without special permission as well which severs the shortest route from the US to the middle East.

Trump can't have it both ways if he wants to forgo the disadvantages of NATO membership whatever he thinks those are? He also has to logo the benefits. And he grossly overestimated the burden placed on the US by being a member of the 'club' because he consistantly ignores the assets other members bring to the party.

Actually, Trump has already been underminig the Alliance when threatening 2 of the founding members, Canada and Denmark. No doubt that will make the others think about the reliability of the Alliance.
I suppose all these threats and the tariff war are meant to pressure the Allies into buying more American war material, so they are just threats… but who knows ?

 

[Amled]

Macron visits Greenland in show of European unity and signal to Trump
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0j7x2xe54eo

A welcome visit indeed! Especially coming on the back of his speech in the UN where he made it clear that: Greenland Is Not for Sale!
A sentiment that will ensure him of a warm welcome his plane lands in Nuuk. He will represent not just France, but also show EU support to the people of Greenland.
Though this might put him at odds with Trump and his minions, who are set on annexing the island against the will of over 80% of its population!
Even to the use of force against a fellow ally to effect the annexation!

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth appeared to suggest under tense questioning that the Pentagon had prepared "contingency" plans for taking Greenland by force "if necessary".

This in spite of the The Greenland Defense Agreement from 1951 allows the United States to have military bases and facilities in Greenland
Have to wonder what a move like that would do to NATO's unity???

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Actually, Trump has already been underminig the Alliance when threatening 2 of the founding members, Canada and Denmark. No doubt that will make the others think about the reliability of the Alliance.
I suppose all these threats and the tariff war are meant to pressure the Allies into buying more American war material, so they are just threats… but who knows ?

Trump has no intentions of leaving the alliance. Else, who's going to jump at his words. The moving goal post of 2% GDP defence budget to 5% GDP is a clear example. Everyone is going to meet it, including Canada. What's new? He moved it to 5% to which no one meets, not even the US.

 

[TrumpCentrist]

Trump's not gonna do shit, he's more similar to past presidents than people make him out to be. In the event of a third international conflagration Trump or one of his successors would most likely back NATO against any external threat, including Russia. But, so far as Russia continues focusing on Ukraine and NATO periphery, Trump will continue trying to get along with Russia regardless. Russia would have to be proven to be some sort of existential threat to Europe for Trump to get involved. As of this moment, Russia appears to be a paper tiger whilst China presents the sole legitimate threat to NATO as a whole (or a United Korea of course, lulz)

 

[Gun Grape]

I would love for NATO countries to push back. South Korea called his bluff during Trumps first term.
With the "Do what I say and pay more or Ill leave, the RoK President asked" How fast can you be gone?"

We are still in the RoK and they are not paying more then previously agreed on.

When Trump says "We won't come to your aid then NATO needs to tell us to cease operations immediately at Ramstein AFB, RAF Mildenhall and Lajes Field. Then retrograde those assets back to the States within 6 months.

See how long it would take Trump to change his tune
.

 

[Steph]

Trump has no intentions of leaving the alliance. Else, who's going to jump at his words. The moving goal post of 2% GDP defence budget to 5% GDP is a clear example. Everyone is going to meet it, including Canada. What's new? He moved it to 5% to which no one meets, not even the US.

Whatever his intentions, his statements are weakening the Alliance. Countries like Canada or Denmark may seriously doubt American support in the event of a problem.
They should rather prepare alternative plans without the US, or even against them.
If an attack against the US similar to that of September 11, 2001, occurred tomorrow, I doubt the Danish government would send troops and be ready to have more than 40 deaths to help the US.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Whatever his intentions, his statements are weakening the Alliance. Countries like Canada or Denmark may seriously doubt American support in the event of a problem.
They should rather prepare alternative plans without the US, or even against them.

That really depends on what kind of attack. Terror attacks? We're on our own. An NBC strike? There's no one else to respond.

If an attack against the US similar to that of September 11, 2001, occurred tomorrow, I doubt the Danish government would send troops and be ready to have more than 40 deaths to help the US.

You've got the history wrong. Article V's military response is automatic. 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, 1973 Arab-Israeli War, and 11 Sept. Whenever the US went on worldwide military alert, so did NATO, There is simply no choice in the matter. The Danish military simply was not going to wait for Parliamentary approval to goto the skies after the planes hit the World Trade Centres. The American Embassy in Copenhagen was a prime target and hence, Danish civilians around the American Embassy.

Also, there are two factors concerning Afghanistan. It was NOT the US who pushed for NATO Command over UN Command in Afghanistan, it was Canada for a variety of reasons, least of all, the effectiveness of Command. Can you imagine a Nigerian General ordering a Dutch Battlegroup to rescue Chinese PMCs? Wheras no one is going to disobey an American general ordering bombing support for a Dutch platoon.

Second, the reason why Denmark committed to Afghanistan was to NOT do Iraq. Remember the hoopla about the Coalition of the Willing (US, UK, Australia) would be the only ones receiving Iraqi Contracts. Bush Jr backdowned because NATO committed more than proportional response to Afghanistan.

 

[rj1]

I would love for NATO countries to push back. South Korea called his bluff during Trumps first term.
With the "Do what I say and pay more or Ill leave, the RoK President asked" How fast can you be gone?"

We are still in the RoK and they are not paying more then previously agreed on.

When Trump says "We won't come to your aid then NATO needs to tell us to cease operations immediately at Ramstein AFB, RAF Mildenhall and Lajes Field. Then retrograde those assets back to the States within 6 months.

See how long it would take Trump to change his tune
.

We were going to have a meeting with Japan a couple weeks ago regarding raising defense spending to 3%, Colby last-minute raised the ask level to 3.5%, and the Japanese cancelled the meeting and they skipped going to the NATO Summit.

Spain pushed back and said they weren't doing it. Trump threatened doubling tariffs.


I don't really worry about Trump who is being surrounded by people in domestic and international affairs that are simply folding to him. I more worry about lame-duck Trump (his ego is never going to be able to handle lame duck status, which could come as soon as 18 months) and also after Trump, both domestically and internationally. If Vance pulled the same playbook, how effective you think he'd be?

 

[Monash]

We were going to have a meeting with Japan a couple weeks ago regarding raising defense spending to 3%, Colby last-minute raised the ask level to 3.5%, and the Japanese cancelled the meeting and they skipped going to the NATO Summit.

Spain pushed back and said they weren't doing it. Trump threatened doubling tariffs.


I don't really worry about Trump who is being surrounded by people in domestic and international affairs that are simply folding to him. I more worry about lame-duck Trump (his ego is never going to be able to handle lame duck status, which could come as soon as 18 months) and also after Trump, both domestically and internationally. If Vance pulled the same playbook, how effective you think he'd be?

If Trump keeps pushing the 'tariff button' every time somone tells him 'no' at some point tbe EU especially is going to say enough is enough. There are ways the Europeans can hit back. They just haven't reached breaking point yet.

 

[Amled]

If Trump keeps pushing the 'tariff button' every time somone tells him 'no' at some point tbe EU especially is going to say enough is enough. For instance There are ways the Euuopeans can hit back. They just havnt reached breaking point yet.

That point might arise if Trump activates his: “…or by other means!” clause regarding Greenland, and annexes the island!
Probably post July 9th.

 

[Monash]

That point might arise if Trump activates his: “…or by other means!” clause regarding Greenland, and annexes the island!
Probably post July 9th.

They might well be wise to keep their powder dry until his last few months in office,. Firstly this gives them time to prepare for the inevitable retaliation while giving Trump little time to act.

Secondly when/if they do start punching back both parties candidates for the upcoming US election (and their respective parties) will be frantic to avoid the mess they're likely to inherit if Trmp isn't reigned in. That IMO would give them a strong incentive to frustrate the orange haired Napoleon in the dying days of his reign.

 

[Gun Grape]

We were going to have a meeting with Japan a couple weeks ago regarding raising defense spending to 3%, Colby last-minute raised the ask level to 3.5%, and the Japanese cancelled the meeting and they skipped going to the NATO Summit.

Japan scraps US meeting after Washington demands more defense spending, FT reports​

Japan scraps US meeting after Washington demands more defense spending, FT reports

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Japan has canceled an annual high-level meeting with key ally the United States after the Trump administration demanded it spend more on defense, the Financial Times reported on Friday. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth had been expected...

www.yahoo.com

The key statement in this article is:

In March, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that other nations do not decide Japan's defense budget, after Colby called for Tokyo to spend more to counter China in his nomination hearing to be under secretary of defense for policy.