If you're thinking of buying a hard drive, better do it right now

bigross86

bigross86

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If you're thinking of buying a hard drive, better do it right now

You've probably heard about the flooding in Thailand. You may not have heard about all the hard drive factories that are underwater and non-operational and will probably stay that way for at least the next six weeks. The next three months are looking really, really bad for hard drives — especially for anyone who's buyin'.

Western Digital, Hitachi, Seagate, and Toshiba are all facing direct production issues as a result of the flooding, and even Korean companies such as Samsung are having trouble getting the specific components that they need to build their own drives, like a motor — responsible for spinning the disc in hard disc drives. Most customers have about two weeks of inventory, and distributors may have an additional two weeks, but beyond that, things are looking gloomy. On Apple's earnings call this week, CEO Tim Cook said that he's "virtually certain there will be an overall industry shortage of disk drives as a result of the disaster."

According to Thailand's prime minister, the flooding may take up to six weeks to recede, and after that, who knows how long it's going to be before factories resume production and there's enough logistical infrastructure back up to get drives and parts out of the country. On top of all that, China's cuts to rare earth supplies are just going to make everything worse by the time the holiday season rolls around. This isn't just speculation, either: it's already getting bad out there.

Over the last two or three days, I've watch prices on the drive I've been looking at for a new PC build (a 1TB Samsung SpinPoint F3, if you're curious) skyrocket from $60 to $110 to completely out of stock most places. As people start to worry, demand will increase, and since there's not going to be any new supply for weeks (maybe even months), things may very well get frantic as soon as current stock runs out. So, if you've been thinking about a new computer, an upgrade to an old computer, or even just an external drive for backup storage, now is definitely the time to pull the trigger.

That is, if it's not already too late.
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Just yesterday all the stores ran out of HDD, RAM and similar products ;)

The answer is, we are out of stock, once we have some, we will contact you.

Classical supply/demand.
 
The bigger question is how this will effect things down the line. Less hard drives being made means less computers being turned out. Less computers available means A) prices jump on those that are for sale and B) less computers in general are bought. Considering the entire world pretty much runs on computers nowadays, this could have serious repercussions in all fields of life...
 
I've got 2TBs to fill. Doubt it will happen anytime soon. We'll be using crystal technology by the time I get enough stuff on this one to make a dent.
 
On Saturday my PC died - @#$#$% - Blue screen all that great crap.:insane:

That Q6600 PC was trouble from the start - and it didn't come with an OS disk (XP64) the vendor promptly went out of business - the power supply failed ... but it had been working since 2008 when I fixed it with a server PS. I ordered a new HDD for it and bought a copy ofXP64 - which I was cheated out of in the first place - leave it to MS to keep charging me for the same OS on the same damn PC.:bang::puck:

Now I am using this mac - what a pain in the ASS - Mac is pathetic - it is worse than windows for the "I know what you want to do" it won't send email! it keeps deciding defaults for me - everything is backwards - buttons on the opposite of the screen - tedious updates --- :mad:

I doubt this hard drive shortage is anything more than a money grab - but we the consumer will be hosed - no doubt:tank::tank:
 
i'm looking at getting a new computer next year, so i'm hoping prices will have stabilized by then.

my issue is finding a computer manufacturer that can still make relatively robust computers. i understand with greater complexity comes greater tendency towards failure, but i suspect some of the old time computer manufacturers have seriously gotten lax with quality control, particularly with parts coming from china.

any particular brands you guys recommend?

also, any new graphics card worth buying on the horizon? i have what was state of the art for 2006-2007-- it is getting a bit rusty now.
 
astralis said:
i'm looking at getting a new computer next year, so i'm hoping prices will have stabilized by then.

my issue is finding a computer manufacturer that can still make relatively robust computers. i understand with greater complexity comes greater tendency towards failure, but i suspect some of the old time computer manufacturers have seriously gotten lax with quality control, particularly with parts coming from china.

any particular brands you guys recommend?

also, any new graphics card worth buying on the horizon? i have what was state of the art for 2006-2007-- it is getting a bit rusty now.
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If you are buying a laptop, all the major brands are equally crap. My buddies in the US say that Toshiba are pretty decent nowadays.

If you are getting a desktop, its very easy to build your own in the land of Newegg and Tiger Direct.
Wait for Ivy Bridge, Intel's new line of Processors.
With AMD already having released Bulldozer, there will probably be a price cut in the run up to its release.
Retail release is targeted for March 2012.
 
I normally build my own. It all depends on what you want your computer to do and how much you are willing to spend. Any new computer will do if all you need is browsing the web, do some email, shopping, and play some flash games like farmville.

If you want to play high intensity games like Battlefield 3 then you want a nice video card, preferably Radeon 68xx class or better. CPU should be Intel Core i5 (Sandy Bridge core) or better. I would stay away from AMD's Bulldozer processor for now. The performance is no better than the last Phenom II processor.

What you can do is buy a Dell or HP computer with a decent processor, then add your own video card. You could buy an off the shelf system with a decent video card, but then the price tend to get jacked up.
 
Astralis, one word:

GATEWAY!

Best computers you can buy without building it yourself.

Even moderate scums such as yourself won't complain about them. :biggrin:
 
gunnut said:
I normally build my own. It all depends on what you want your computer to do and how much you are willing to spend. Any new computer will do if all you need is browsing the web, do some email, shopping, and play some flash games like farmville.

If you want to play high intensity games like Battlefield 3 then you want a nice video card, preferably Radeon 68xx class or better. CPU should be Intel Core i5 (Sandy Bridge core) or better. I would stay away from AMD's Bulldozer processor for now. The performance is no better than the last Phenom II processor.

What you can do is buy a Dell or HP computer with a decent processor, then add your own video card. You could buy an off the shelf system with a decent video card, but then the price tend to get jacked up.
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GN, a question. My Sis will probably be visiting me from the US in a couple of months and I was thinking of moving on from My 3 year old HD4850. What card nowadays would you recommend to replace it?
 
I am inclined to go with the Phenom II X6 processors - lots of threads - only advanced gaming makes the Intel processors any better. With more cores - you can do more at once. 8 GB is a lot of RAM unless you know why you need more (be sure to have a 64 bit OS if you want more than 2 GB of usable RAM). I have had good luck with the 3btech.net vendor (there are 3btech clones with .com and .biz - so be sure you have the .net one if you want to use my recommendations). Remember computers change like the weather, a new "best" one everyday, the latest usually one costs about twice as much as the previous greatest version.. Some neat new things to consider: SSD drives, SATA3, USB3, it keeps getting better.

I like Tomshardware.com for recommendations on specific hardware.
 
Phenom II x6 is nice, but unfortunately not many programs support multi threading. I guess it's nice to have if you encode a bluray movie but must play Battlefield 3 at the same time...:tongue:

Nothing beats Phenom II processors when it comes to value. I run a Phenom II x3 720 @ 3.2 GHz. Thinking about the x4 965 at 3.4 GHz to see how fast I can overclock it.
 
gunnut,

I normally build my own. It all depends on what you want your computer to do and how much you are willing to spend. Any new computer will do if all you need is browsing the web, do some email, shopping, and play some flash games like farmville.

If you want to play high intensity games like Battlefield 3 then you want a nice video card, preferably Radeon 68xx class or better. CPU should be Intel Core i5 (Sandy Bridge core) or better. I would stay away from AMD's Bulldozer processor for now. The performance is no better than the last Phenom II processor.

What you can do is buy a Dell or HP computer with a decent processor, then add your own video card. You could buy an off the shelf system with a decent video card, but then the price tend to get jacked up.
Click to expand...

i prefer "partial builds", ie my computer right now is a dell but i put in my own power supply/video card/extra memory, and added new keyboard/mouse/monitor/speaker combo. i don't like to go through the added bother/expense of getting, say, windows software.

turns out that my card is actually not as old as i remember-- it's similar to bolo's, a HD4870. i figure i can wait until fairly late next year.

one of the reasons why i'd like a new card is because even when i moderately overclocked my card, it still cannot run shogun 2 with all the eye candy i'd like-- ie once i hit "anistropic 16x/shader model 4.1/HDR effect/etc" it starts locking up. shader model 5 is completely beyond it.

it seems a bit weird to me how a fairly good card from late-2008 has a shorter shelf life than my average dell computer circa early 2007.
 
YF,

Astralis, one word:

GATEWAY!

Best computers you can buy without building it yourself.
Click to expand...

how flexible are the computers to add-your-own? i ask becoz i notice dell has been getting less friendly for people who want to include extra stuff, ie it took me some time to find a bloody power source that could fit within the confines of the box, lol.

Even moderate scums such as yourself won't complain about them.
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"moderate scum", i like that. "scum, yes, but not as bad as the LIBRUL type..." :biggrin:
 
astralis said:
gunnut,



i prefer "partial builds", ie my computer right now is a dell but i put in my own power supply/video card/extra memory, and added new keyboard/mouse/monitor/speaker combo. i don't like to go through the added bother/expense of getting, say, windows software.

turns out that my card is actually not as old as i remember-- it's similar to bolo's, a HD4870. i figure i can wait until fairly late next year.

one of the reasons why i'd like a new card is because even when i moderately overclocked my card, it still cannot run shogun 2 with all the eye candy i'd like-- ie once i hit "anistropic 16x/shader model 4.1/HDR effect/etc" it starts locking up. shader model 5 is completely beyond it.

it seems a bit weird to me how a fairly good card from late-2008 has a shorter shelf life than my average dell computer circa early 2007.
Click to expand...

Another thing is whether your current CPU is capable of driving an advanced video card. Bolo has a killer CPU (for today) and his video card is choking the performance.

Your 4870 is pretty much on par with my 5770. The major difference is the 5xxx series has advanced power saving features. My card idles at 18W power draw, according to ATI. I think your 4870 idles at a much higher power draw, maybe 60W?

I was just looking at specs of the new cards. Assuming the 6770 behaves roughly like my 5770, and thus your 4870, you will need to go to 6870 to see major improvement, preferably 6950. Of course this discounts the fact that 4870 was not DX11 compliant while the 5770 and later are.
 
astralis said:
YF,
how flexible are the computers to add-your-own? i ask becoz i notice dell has been getting less friendly for people who want to include extra stuff, ie it took me some time to find a bloody power source that could fit within the confines of the box...
Click to expand...

Wow, good question.

Never felt the need to add anything to it besides a new video card. Not to say the one that came with it was bad.

Let's just say that my nephew, who used to be a world class Counter Strike player always started with a Gateway before adding stuff to it.
 
gunnut said:
Well...hell...that 4850 is killing your performance right now. The i5 2500k (is it overclocked?) should be able to drive just about anythong on the market. Now the question becomes how much are you willing to spend?
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Yep thats pretty much why I want to upgrade. I am no FPS player, but i would like to at least run something like cities XL2011 or a RTS like Starcraft 2 or Shogun 2 without things slowing down. I paid about $185 in INR for my HD4850 from Sapphire.
It was reasonable quiet, reliable and pretty much the best bang for buck GPU I ever purchased. So I guess I am willing to get whatever fits into that particular sweet spot nowadays for about the same kind of money.
I have read that with all the software they provide nowadays overclocking a 2500K is a breeze, but i am waiting for some time until it isnt brand new.
 
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astralis said:
gunnut,



i prefer "partial builds", ie my computer right now is a dell but i put in my own power supply/video card/extra memory, and added new keyboard/mouse/monitor/speaker combo. i don't like to go through the added bother/expense of getting, say, windows software.

turns out that my card is actually not as old as i remember-- it's similar to bolo's, a HD4870. i figure i can wait until fairly late next year.

one of the reasons why i'd like a new card is because even when i moderately overclocked my card, it still cannot run shogun 2 with all the eye candy i'd like-- ie once i hit "anistropic 16x/shader model 4.1/HDR effect/etc" it starts locking up. shader model 5 is completely beyond it.

it seems a bit weird to me how a fairly good card from late-2008 has a shorter shelf life than my average dell computer circa early 2007.
Click to expand...

Actually doing this doesn't make a lot of sense. Upgrading that dell would in any case invalidate the warranty, and yep while you may have to take a one time hit buying windows a custom build is still much more flexible and lower price.
I would say get yourself a Nice Lian Li Cabby and fill it up with the exact combo of components your needs and budget prefer.
 
bolo121 said:
If you are buying a laptop, all the major brands are equally crap. My buddies in the US say that Toshiba are pretty decent nowadays.
Click to expand...

I am posting this from my Toshiba P-205 that I have had for about three years now(i think). The only complaint i have is windows vista, but it now has enough updates that i have no prob with it. I would buy one again, but would like to have something that is military spec'd. EMP proofed, dust and water res and all that.
 
I've looked at them a little, but I haven't completely researched Toshibas offerings in that area. As tough as this one is, the Sattelite is damn close to the toughbook as far as durabilty, its those other things I am wondering about and sure i will pay handsomely for when the time comes.
 
bolo121 said:
Yep thats pretty much why I want to upgrade. I am no FPS player, but i would like to at least run something like cities XL2011 or a RTS like Starcraft 2 or Shogun 2 without things slowing down. I paid about $185 in INR for my HD4850 from Sapphire.
It was reasonable quiet, reliable and pretty much the best bang for buck GPU I ever purchased. So I guess I am willing to get whatever fits into that particular sweet spot nowadays for about the same kind of money.
I have read that with all the software they provide nowadays overclocking a 2500K is a breeze, but i am waiting for some time until it isnt brand new.
Click to expand...

Radeon 6870 should be around $200 and perfect for you.
 
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