Collapse in Afghanistan

[Albany Rifles]

Who knew that the doctrine & strategy taught in high school classes at the New York Military Academy were so much better than that taught at Princeton ROTC, The Armor Officer Basic Course, the Infantry Officer Advanced Course, the Combined Arms & Services Staff School, the U.S. Naval War College & the MIT Seminar XXI National Security Studies Program!

 

[tbm3fan]

Who knew that the doctrine & strategy taught in high school classes at the New York Military Academy were so much better than that taught at Princeton ROTC, The Armor Officer Basic Course, the Infantry Officer Advanced Course, the Combined Arms & Services Staff School, the U.S. Naval War College & the MIT Seminar XXI National Security Studies Program!

You're assuming he paid attention which I can assure you he didn't and wouldn't.

 

[Albany Rifles]

You're assuming he paid attention which I can assure you he didn't and wouldn't.

With that Fat Nixon I assume nothing....

 

[Double Edge]

The Paks are getting back from the Taliban exactly what they dished out to others

Early on Sushant quotes from a book written by a former Taliban ambassador to Pakistan, Abdul Salam Zaeef

Pakistan, which plays a key role in Asia, is so famous for treachery that it is said they can get milk from a bull.

They have two tongues in one mouth, and two faces on one head so they can speak everybody’s language; they use everybody, deceive everybody.

They deceive the Arabs under the guise of Islamic nuclear power, saying that they are defending Islam and Islamic countries.

They milk America and Europe in the alliance against terrorism, and they have been deceiving Pakistani and other Muslims around the world in the name of the Kashmir jihad.

But behind the curtain, they have been betraying everyone.

Their Islam and their jihad were to destroy their neighbouring Islamic country together with the infdels.

They handed over their airports to the Americans so they could kill Muslims and destroy an Islamic country.

Their loyalty to the Arabs is so great that they sold diplomats, journalists and mujahedeen for dollars. Like animals.

God knows whether they will ever use their nuclear bomb to defend Muslims and Islam.

They might use their weapons—as they have used everything else—against Muslims.

There is no better description i have seen to date :smile:

 

[Mithridates]

Victory has a 1000 fathers while Defeat is an orphan.

It really doesn't matter who decided what and when was what done. We've lost Afghanistan the second we decided can't bleed Afghanistan into submission. Insurgency/guerrilla warfare has only one strategy - to outbleed the occupier. The counter strategy is obvious - then bleed them white. Every man, woman, child, dog. If you're willing to bleed them all, you will see how fast all will be coming to your side if only not to be bled.

But we are not Nazis. We don't want to stomache that kind of war. The Taliban does.

I'd say we're not Romans. This is how they dealt with revolt:

Josephus claims that 1.1 million people were killed during the siege, of which a majority were Jewish. Josephus attributes this to the celebration of Passover which he uses as rationale for the vast number of people present among the death toll.[SUP][24][/SUP] The revolt had not deterred pilgrims from Jewish diaspora communities from trekking to Jerusalem to visit the Temple at Passover, and a large number became trapped in the city and perished during the siege.[SUP][25][/SUP] Armed rebels, as well as the frail citizens, were put to death. All of Jerusalem's remaining citizens became Roman prisoners. After the Romans killed the armed and elder people, 97,000 were still enslaved, including Simon bar Giora and John of Giscala.[SUP][26][/SUP] Of the 97,000, thousands were forced to become gladiators and eventually expired in the arena.

And we're apparently not Greeks either:

It was the wealthiest city under the sun and the private houses had been filled for a long time with riches of every kind. The Macedonians rushed into it, killing all the men and plundering the houses, which were numerous and full of furniture and precious objects of every kind. Here much silver was carried off and no little gold, and many expensive dresses, embroidered with purple or with gold, fell as prizes to the victors.

But the great royal palace, famed throughout the inhabited world, had been condemned to the indignity of total destruction. The Macedonians spent the whole day in pillage but still could not satisfy their inexhaustible greed. [...] As for the women, they dragged them away forcibly with their jewels, treating as slaves the whole group of captives. As Persepolis had surpassed all other cities in prosperity, so she now exceeded them in misfortune.

What the Taliban did to win power is something they couldn't have done against a Roman or Greek general from antiquity. But that's because the men would all have been killed from the git-go, after the US invasion.

 

[Double Edge]

You were dealing with a proxy war not an insurgency. If you fight a proxy war the way you do an insurgency it won't work.

You were unwilling to accept it was a proxy war.

No need to go Mongol.

This is why full spectrum, full tech lost to zero spectrum and ideology.

Wonder what lessons the Chinese will draw from this experience.

They will stand up some Counter Insurgency regiments.

Why they expect to fare better will be interesting to understand

 

[Officer of Engineers]

No need to go Mongol.

You're missing the friggin point. The other side is willing to outbleed you. The easiest and most obvious counter is to bleed them dry.

 

[Double Edge]

You're missing the friggin point. The other side is willing to outbleed you. The easiest and most obvious counter is to bleed them dry.

Not an option and never was.

What is the point of suggesting something you cannot do ?

You figured out a way to defeat the Soviets who were more brutal. This same method was deployed against you.

Back then the wrong people were armed. Same happened again.

Majority of Afghans are moderate. These were the people to stick with.

But the Paks did not want to work with them because moderates are nationalists.

So they selected the extremists to empower because the extremists would not threaten their border.

Extremist ideology transcends borders.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Not an option and never was.

Did we live though those times together? Did you forget the anger the Americans felt? Did you not remember the cry for vengence when they wrongly believed 50,000 died at the WTC. Were you not aware that nukes were considered? Against Pakistan if they stood in our way? It was very much an option. Pakistan chickened out and the Americans figured they could do the same job with thermobarics.

You figured out a way to defeat the Soviets who were more brutal. This same method was deployed against you.

Let's get something straight. We defeated the Soviets because oil prices crashed which resulted in us outspending them. They left Afghanistan not because they lost the will to fight. They were beating the Mujahadeed so bad that ther northern warlords switched sides. The Soviets left Afghanistan because they can no longer afford it.

Majority of Afghans are moderate. These were the people to stick with.

But the Paks did not want to work with them because moderates are nationalists.

So they selected the extremists to empower because the extremists would not threaten their border.

Extremist ideology transcends borders.

So what? Ask yourself. What do we gain by keeping Afghanistan? Every foreign Empire left Afghanistan for a reason. There is zero to gain there. Afghanistan is an invasion route to India, Iran, and Central Asia. Not even a trade route. There are a lot more easier roads to carry trade. Afghanistan is bandit country and bandits could be much cheaper control by punitive expeditions than by occupation.

 

[Double Edge]

Did we live though those times together? Did you forget the anger the Americans felt? Did you not remember the cry for vengence when they wrongly believed 50,000 died at the WTC. Were you not aware that nukes were considered? Against Pakistan if they stood in our way? It was very much an option. Pakistan chickened out and the Americans figured they could do the same job with thermobarics.

Yeah we did. I lived through it in NYC.

All of these things happened.

Where was the Mongol ? you admit ROE's did not allow for it.

Keeping collateral damage to a minimum otherwise the HR people in your countries will agitate to bring you back.

So saying you could win with it isn't an option. There were other ways to win but those could not be taken.

Let's get something straight. We defeated the Soviets because oil prices crashed which resulted in us outspending them. They left Afghanistan not because they lost the will to fight. They were beating the Mujahadeed so bad that ther northern warlords switched sides. The Soviets left Afghanistan because they can no longer afford it.

The Soviets won tactically. Not strategically. Same story here.

Does it matter how many times you beat them only for them to return after you leave.

We're all in the same boat and loathing a repeat of the 1996-2001 period.

I want to believe those twenty years amounted to something.

Funny how both our predictions ended up wrong on this one :smile:

You said civil war and i argued the govt would hold so long as it got funding from abroad.

There is no civil war at least not yet and the govt folded like a house of cards.

So what? Ask yourself. What do we gain by keeping Afghanistan? Every foreign Empire left Afghanistan for a reason. There is zero to gain there. Afghanistan is an invasion route to India, Iran, and Central Asia. Not even a trade route. There are a lot more easier roads to carry trade. Afghanistan is bandit country and bandits could be much cheaper control by punitive expeditions than by occupation.

Don't have to keep it. But you want to leave the place different than how you found it.

When the Viets left Cambodia the Khmer Rouge never returned.

Unless you isolated the battlefield it was never going to happen. It drags on for decades.

I'm sure the generals knew what to do. Getting the permission to do it was another question.

What lessons are the Chinese drawing from this experience ? First two gulf wars taught them you needed high tech and speed.

In this theater they will learn that there is a limit to how much tech a battlefield can absorb. And even then the results aren't guaranteed.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Where was the Mongol ?

You're kidding me. Did you actually think that a few 100 SOF backed by airpower could actually take Afghanistan? We've allied with Donstum for crying outloud. Mongol was done by our Afghan allies. Wew've just turned a blind eye to it.

The Soviets won tactically. Not strategically. Same story here.

Does it matter how many times you beat them only for them to return after you leave.

We're all in the same boat and loathing a repeat of the 1996-2001 period.

I want to believe those twenty years amounted to something.

That's the freaking point. There is nothing to win.

Funny how both our predictions ended up wrong on this one :smile:

You said civil war and i argued the govt would hold so long as it got funding from abroad.

There is no civil war at least not yet and the govt folded like a house of cards.

I see a repeat of history. The Mujahadeen fractured. So will the Taliban. Sooner or later, one warlord will want more than what he has.

Don't have to keep it. But you want to leave the place different than how you found it.

When the Viets left Cambodia the Khmer Rouge never returned.

Unless you isolated the battlefield it was never going to happen. It drags on for decades.

I'm sure the generals knew what to do. Getting the permission to do it was another question.

What lessons are the Chinese drawing from this experience ? First two gulf wars taught them you needed high tech and speed.

In this theater they will learn that there is a limit to how much tech a battlefield can absorb. And even then the results aren't guaranteed.

Every Empire in history left Aghanistan. Not drove out but left. It's just not worth it to garrison. Afghanistan is only vital if you need a landbridge to occupy either Iran or India. Once you lose the need to occupy either, you also lose the need to garrison Afghanistan.

Once our egos get over the hurt, Afghanistan would be forgotten just as every other Empire had forgotten about it.

 

[Double Edge]

You're kidding me. Did you actually think that a few 100 SOF backed by airpower could actually take Afghanistan? We've allied with Donstum for crying outloud. Mongol was done by our Afghan allies. Wew've just turned a blind eye to it.

This was in the initial stages. Later on when the TB were reconstituting and hitting back there was no Mongol.

That's the freaking point. There is nothing to win.

What were the objectives to enter Afghanistan ? ensure it does not and never becomes a base for terrorists to operate from.

That is what winning means.

I see a repeat of history. The Mujahadeen fractured. So will the Taliban. Sooner or later, one warlord will want more than what he has.

I hear Indian officers saying the same thing. There are different factions. The dependence on Pakistan is less since they don't need sanctuary, their families are no longer held hostage.

There is churn and the situation remains fluid until a stable power configuration emerges.

Every Empire in history left Aghanistan. Not drove out but left. It's just not worth it to garrison. Afghanistan is only vital if you need a landbridge to occupy either Iran or India. Once you lose the need to occupy either, you also lose the need to garrison Afghanistan.

Once our egos get over the hurt, Afghanistan would be forgotten just as every other Empire had forgotten about it.

No need for a garrison if the ancien regime was disbanded. Such an opportunity presented itself shortly after the TB were disposed.

TB wanted to formally surrender.

This was brought to Karzai's notice but inexplicably he fails to inform his old college buddy Khalilzad (!)

Or that is what i learnt from Lyse Doucet's podcast of the region.

Could never figure out where she came from going by her accent. She's Canadian. She knows Afghanistan very well.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

This was in the initial stages. Later on when the TB were reconstituting and hitting back there was no Mongol.

We've lost our bloodlust.

What were the objectives to enter Afghanistan ? ensure it does not and never becomes a base for terrorists to operate from.

Mission achieved. The TB will no longer tolerate answering to foreigners.

There is churn and the situation remains fluid until a stable power configuration emerges.

The last time we had a stable Afghanistan was under Timur

Could never figure out where she came from going by her accent. She's Canadian. She knows Afghanistan very well.

Anyone who tells you they understand Afghanistan is selling you snake oil. Aghans don't understand Afghanistan. That's why they're tearing themselves apart.

 

[Double Edge]

Did you actually think that a few 100 SOF backed by airpower could actually take Afghanistan? We've allied with Donstum for crying outloud. Mongol was done by our Afghan allies. Wew've just turned a blind eye to it.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1413492/

I am advising a man on how to best employ light infantry and horse cavalry in the attack against Taliban T-55s, mortars, artillery, personnel carriers, and machine guns – a tactic which I think became outdated with the invention of the Gatling gun. [The mujahideen] have done this every day we have been on the ground. They have attacked with 10 rounds of ammunition per man, with snipers having less than 100 rounds – little water and less food. I have observed a PK gunner who walked 10-plus miles to get to the fight, who was proud to show me his artificial leg from the knee down.

We have witnessed the horse cavalry bounding overwatch from spur to spur to attack Taliban strongpoints – the last several kilometers under mortar, artillery, and sniper fire. There is little medical care if injured, only a donkey ride to the aid station, which is a dirt hut. I think [the mujahideen] are doing very well with what they have.

We could not do what we are doing without the close air support – everywhere I go the civilians and mujahideen soldiers are always telling me they are glad the U.S.A. has come. They all speak of their hopes for a better Afghanistan once the Taliban are gone.

https://www.defensemedianetwork.com/...rst-49-days-4/

They send 19 you send 12. This lot came back. All of them :wink:

 

[Double Edge]

Every Empire in history left Aghanistan. Not drove out but left. It's just not worth it to garrison. Afghanistan is only vital if you need a landbridge to occupy either Iran or India. Once you lose the need to occupy either, you also lose the need to garrison Afghanistan.

Once our egos get over the hurt, Afghanistan would be forgotten just as every other Empire had forgotten about it.

The state of affairs which brought about the Treaty of Gandamak has completely changed.

In place of our being obliged to occupy the advanced strategic positions secured to us by that treaty, and which the safety of our Indian Empire forced us to hold as long as Kabul was the centre of a great political and military power, we can now afford to withdraw our troops within our original frontier.

We have nothing to fear from Afghanistan, and the best thing to do is to leave it as much as possible to itself. It may not be very flattering to our amour propre, but I feel sure I am right when I say that the less the Afghans see of us the less they will dislike us.

Should Russia in future years attempt to conquer Afghanistan or invade India through it, we should have a better chance of attaching the Afghans to our interests, if we avoid all interference with them in the meantime. The military occupation of Kandahar is, as I have before stated, of vital importance ; but even there we should make our presence but little felt, merely controlling the foreign policy of the ruler of that province.

Second time around the Brits left Afghanistan to the strongest Afghn leader, Abdur Rahman Khan, an enemy to the Brits and ally to Russia.

It's as if after fighting the Taliban for ten years the US were to quit and put the Taliban back in charge. From the documentary by Rory Stewart, in 2011 (!)

Talk about deja vu :smile:

The gamble paid off. Abdur Rahman wanted a subsidy and no internal intererence in his country. And the Brits got control of Afghan foreign policy and most importantly Abdur Rahman did not allow the Russians to threaten India.

For the Brits this was a perfect solution.

Hmm, should we think along these lines ?

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Abdur Rahman done Mongol

 

[Double Edge]

I mean the situation at the end of the second Anglo Afghan war is similar to the current situation

- Taliban wants funds ie. recognition. I don't know what the deal with narcotics is. The last time around they clamped down on it for it to only prosper after they got deposed.

- We want a veto on their foreign policy. Brits did not want the Russians to proceed, we don't want international terrorists to proceed.

Is the Taliban's foreign policy up for sale ?

As far as the Paks go, no because they have nothing to offer.

To China, or the west that answer could depend on how well the haggle goes.

At the same time such recognition will entrench a terrible regime which can't be good long term.

Whether this will be the 'perfect solution' as the Brits saw it back in 1880 ?

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Whether by us or by our proxy, someone has to do a Mongol to get Afghanistan to do what we want.

 

[Albany Rifles]

Are you really trying to say you are basing the success of the US in Afghanistan was a single A Team riding horses?

The author of the book (never mind the bullshit which is that movie) never made the claim. There was almost the entire 3rd Special Forces Group working with the Northern Alliance...not just 1 captain and 11 men. And they were backed by every air frame in the US Air Force & US Navy. The Marines airlifted a brigade into Kandahar. The 10th Mountain Division sent a brigade...as did the 101st Airborne. I know the exact where's and how's but I'm not at liberty to say. But the office where I was working in at the time was responsible for developing and organizing the support infrastructure for the entire effort in 2001-02. And the above was just the DOD effort. There was a massive logistics chain going back through Germany to the US and all elements of the US government were brought to bear...not just the DOD. Not to mention the massive amount of support we received from the UK, Canada, Norway and other NATO Allies.

And that doesn't even bring up the massive amount of defections from the Taliban forces to the Northern Alliance forces. And that was only in the northern part of the country.

The Horse Soldiers was looking through a straw at the war.

 

[Double Edge]

Imran Khan's Pleading Fails: OIC Refuses To Recognise Taliban, Leaves Its FM Out Of Photo | Republic World | Dec 20 2021

OIC isn't ready to recognise the Taliban. They did not even want the Taliban's rep in the group photo.