Chinese actions in the South China Seas

[troung]

Aquino is an incompetent leader. He should have made the incident escalate into a full blown military confrontation. The AFP might be defeated by the Malaysian military, but it will leave a scar in the way PH deals with Malaysia and there will be long term hostilities between the two countries and muzzies will be more marginalized and the PH will be forced to appropriate a larger budget into the Armed forces and focus on China will be lessened and China will continue to devour south east asia and make it a Chinese turf and slowly kick out the muzzzes. This is a Win win situation for all humanity and a big defeat for Abu troung the lslamist

So please break it down for us what exactly they were to do to escalate ))

 

[Double Edge]

Mattis: US will defend Japanese islands claimed by China
https://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/asia/us-defense-secretary-mattis-japan-visit/index.html

Was listening to a book talk by Michael Hanlon , Senkaku Paradox.

Paradox is fighting makes no sense but walking away could have catastrophic consequences.

China plays these games with its neighbours. PH is not alone here.

Some reply by doing crazy things like pick a fight with them in a third country ie Doklam.

So what will the US do if China occupies Senkaku ?

Nobody knows but he thinks the US will not start WW3 over islands nobody lives on and whose ownership USG has no opinion of. Don't want a repeat of Austrian archduke in 1914.

There are eight islands. One's gone, fortify the remaining seven with some US or Japanese forces. Move some more of the 7th fleet in. x2 or 3 whatever Trump's doing to China for the long haul. Economic sanctions. The salami slicing comes with costs. Signal that this will be the last aggression that does not lead to a conflict. Red line.

He wants responses that doesn't see US or Japan firing the first shot if China grabs a sliver here or there.

Earlier in 2014 a journalist asks General John Wissler what would the US do if we woke up one day and the Chinese had occupied one of the islands

His reply was if so instructed, they could take it back without requiring to put any boots ashore. This means either an amphibious assault or just bombing the trespassers on the island.

Is this credible. maybe or not.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

His reply was if so instructed, they could take it back without requiring to put any boots ashore. This means either an amphibious assault or just bombing the trespassers on the island.

A lot easier than that. Just blockade the thing. There's no fresh water there.

 

[Double Edge]

Great. just great. That will be the case with all of those reclaimed islands in the SCS or elsewhere.

Little islands that no one can spend much time on.

Only good for short stay girl scout excursions.

Did the PLA officer who ordered these actions get a promotion ?

 

[Oracle]

^ Both of you are forgetting one thing. Blockading SLOC is one thing, but if ADIZ is not enforced then PLAAF can fly supplies to those islands, including water.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

^ Both of you are forgetting one thing. Blockading SLOC is one thing, but if ADIZ is not enforced then PLAAF can fly supplies to those islands, including water.

Have to do SEAD first. Western destroyers have some very nasty SAMs.

However, in the case of those disputed Islands with Japan, everyone has to leave during Winter. Wind and waves would make short work of any residence. Being exposed to hurricane scale winds day in/day out does not make for a nice deployment. The entire camp could be swept out to sea. The only reason why anyone want those pieces of rock is to extend their EEZ claims 200 miles from those position ... but nobody is going to live there.

 

[Oracle]

Have to do SEAD first. Western destroyers have some very nasty SAMs.

I guess if USN blockades SLOCs, then ADIZ also comes into effect simultaneously?

However, in the case of those disputed Islands with Japan, everyone has to leave during Winter. Wind and waves would make short work of any residence. Being exposed to hurricane scale winds day in/day out does not make for a nice deployment. The entire camp could be swept out to sea. The only reason why anyone want those pieces of rock is to extend their EEZ claims 200 miles from those position ... but nobody is going to live there.

Very interesting.

 

[Double Edge]

The only reason why anyone want those pieces of rock is to extend their EEZ claims 200 miles from those position

Aha, China has finally accepted Land + 200 miles of sea = EEZ

All disputes in the SCS will now come to an end.

Yes ?

 

[Oracle]

Aha, China has finally accepted Land + 200 miles of sea = EEZ

All disputes in the SCS will now come to an end.

Yes ?

Very clever. Good thought.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Aha, China has finally accepted Land + 200 miles of sea = EEZ

All disputes in the SCS will now come to an end.

Yes ?

Since when has any country been consistent with their national claims?

 

[Double Edge]

Since when has any country been consistent with their national claims?

On one hand question UNCLOS and on the other use it. Weak position & case.

But this is about power and if some arrangement can be found where the plaintiff withdraws the complaint then a modus vivendi can be had.

Tenuous, subject to change according to the govt of the day. What does China do then when the previous agreements get tossed out. Start the pressure again ?

Even if the country is indebted there is no guarantee that government of the day just turns round and say screw you we're not paying back any more and your leases will soon be terminated. China is hardly going to land marines on their coast.

heh, this is no plan for China.

They're winging it on a hope and a prayer.

The only way they keep the balls in the air is their influence and power has to grow by leaps and bounds and there are powerful players with their own interests at stake backing them. I just cannot see this happening at this point given China's behaviour.

 

[Double Edge]

Have to do SEAD first. Western destroyers have some very nasty SAMs.

What about the forces on the island ? is there nothing in their arsenal to threaten ships enforcing the blockade ? all this A2AD business.

Course the first shot by them means their island base turns into a crater.

Maybe A2Ad will be more effective from the mainland only, to keep foreign navies at a distance. Easier replenishment as well.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Not surprising considering the history of Chinese trying military shortcuts.

Insufficent shore bombardment vessels? Put field artillery and tanks on the decks of freighters.
Manpower shortages? Beef up a regiment to do a division's job.
You don't have enough aircraft carriers? Build islands with runways.

Here's the problem. These islands have to find the enemy in order to kill the enemy. Kinda hard to do when the enemy is a moving ship not wanting to be found. Your island, however, ain't going nowhere. The enemy has already found your island wheras the Chinese have to achieve weapons lock before they can fire. Western warships can stand outside of detection range and lobe cruise missiles galore.

Yeah, not well thought out.

 

[Double Edge]

So the Senkaku bit of his book is a non-event

He also mentions the same dynamics at play if Russia were to occupy a town in say Estonia. Idea being to throw NATO into disarray.

Envoke article 5 or not. Moscow gets to watch NATO tear itself apart over this question.

I think i'm getting what he means by reading between the lines

A lot easier than that. Just blockade the thing. There's no fresh water there.

Even though your suggestion makes perfect military sense he does not want military to be the sole arbiter. Because military sees every problem as a nail in need of a hammer.

Consider this hypothetical. Blockade is enforced, hot headed PLA officer fires off some missiles. Maybe hits something, in response the western ships crater the Chinese island base. All goes FUBAR. US got sucked into some one else's territorial dispute. Now China & US are in a conflict.

He wants to avoid such an eventuality. Lower downs for better or worse cannot be the ones that get conflicts going.

So his recommendation of responses is fortify the remaining islands and economic warfare and not a blockade (i'm presuming) aka military response. He wants better integration between depts that usually do not talk to each other. He wants more stakeholders with votes over potential military responses. The treasury dept should be in on the war planning discussion.

Nobody does planning better than the DoD and he's nervous that they are the first guys to be called in and the response invariably is military.

Trump hasn't started any wars, people were saying at the outset he has surrounded himself with generals but then he's also nervous that Trump's messaging can lead to deterrence failure. Two examples. Korea 1950 & Kuwait 1990.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

Trump hasn't started any wars, people were saying at the outset he has surrounded himself with generals but then he's also nervous that Trump's messaging can lead to deterrence failure. Two examples. Korea 1950 & Kuwait 1990.

He doesn't follow history very well. Of all the nuclear confrontations between the US and the USSR, it was Moscow, not Washington DC who backed down. The US will not be suckered into someone else's territorial dispute. The US will defend its vital sea trade lanes. The current conflict with Iran should serve as the example. Trump is ready to bomb Iran. It was others who talked him out of it when intel could not confirm it was the Iranians who planted those mines.

 

[Double Edge]

He doesn't follow history very well. Of all the nuclear confrontations between the US and the USSR, it was Moscow, not Washington DC who backed down.

Hypothetical was my idea. Not Michael. I wanted to push your blockade idea some.

The US will not be suckered into someone else's territorial dispute. The US will defend its vital sea trade lanes.

Then there will be no blockade. FONOPS to continue as usual should China try to enforce an EEZ around the islands.

He's ok if China with a defense budget of $200 billion has only one Senkaku to show for it : D

But it stops there.

He's not against a military response so blockade could be on the table but wants extra options

The current conflict with Iran should serve as the example. Trump is ready to bomb Iran. It was others who talked him out of it when intel could not confirm it was the Iranians who planted those mines.

Trump has been consistent there like with NK

Michael is referring here to Trump's first order questioning of the value of alliances. eg. NATO expansion or defending islands.

The questions are fine just that they need to not be voiced in public otherwise it gives opponents the wrong idea.

 

[Double Edge]

Things have been heating up in the region of late. Copy pasting this from a description of a youtube video dated Jul 26 that i watched recently

Temperatures are on the boil in the maritime domain both in the South China Sea as well as the Sea of Japan that lies to its north east.

While the Vietnam-China face-off in the energy rich and strategically located South China Sea (SCS) continues, the Sea of Japan too became a flashpoint earlier this week with no less than four nations--South Korea, Russia, Japan and China--involved in a spat.

It happened after South Korea accused Russian and Chinese military aircraft of violating its airspace and fired 30 warning shots besides scrambling its jets. The Russian and Chinese aircraft had reportedly flown over the disputed Dokdo/Takeshima islands over which both South Korea and Japan stakes a claim.

An angry Tokyo, with its claims on the island, in turn accused Seoul and Moscow of violating its airspace. In the meantime, the sparring between Vietnam and China in the South China Sea shows no signs of abating. Both nations have competing claims in this sea and both claim sovereignty and jurisdiction over it as their naval vessels confront each other in what Vietnam says is its Exclusive Economic Zone.

In the first part of this exclusive interview with SNI Deputy Editor Parul Chandra, the Vietnamese ambassador to India Pham Sanh Chau maintains it is his country that has sovereign rights as per UNCLOS. He also says that despite differences over the SCS, Vietnam and China have “good relations”and ties that are evolving in a constructive manner. On the controversial Belt and Road Initiative of China (BRI), the envoy says while Vietnam understands India’s position on it, his country is part of it as it will promote prosperity in the region and beyond.

Looks like the Russians are cooperating with China to create a diversion and take some of the heat of China's actions in the SCS.

Dokdo/Takeshima ? not heard of them before

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liancourt_Rocks_dispute

 

[Double Edge]

Protest ? i thought they were friends. What about this verbal agreement between the leaders.

Philippines protests 'swarming' of more than 100 Chinese vessels | Al Jazeera | Jul 31 2019

The Philippines has increasingly become more outspoken against China in recent weeks, despite President Rodrigo Duterte's pronouncements that he wants to maintain closer ties with Beijing.

On Tuesday, Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana accused China of bullying, saying that Beijing's peaceful assurances to Manila contrast with its behaviour in the contested waters.

"They say we do not bully people around, they follow international law, but I said you are not, what you are telling is not what you are doing on the ground," Lorenzana said in one of his most stinging public rebukes yet of Chinese actions in territories claimed by Beijing, Manila and four other governments.

Unless China does what it says, its words will be doubted and Filipinos will continue to look at Beijing with mistrust, said Lorenzana, a retired army general.

No shit !

He also cited China's low trust ratings in local opinion polls compared with those of the US, a treaty ally of the Philippines.

Interesting

Duterte, who revived ties with Beijing after taking office in 2016, has refused to immediately seek Chinese compliance to the arbitration ruling while seeking Chinese infrastructure funds and investment, often coming under criticism for his China-friendly approach.

Ah so he is looking for a settlement then

 

[Suika2]

In June of this year, PLA Navy carrier Liaoning sailed from the East China Sea, through the Miyako Strait and into the Pacific Ocean. While it wasn't the first time for the Liaoning to sail through the Miyako Strait and then come around the southern end of Taiwan and back to China, the June 2019 sail was the first time the carrier group sailed deep into the Pacific and came up near Guam. Afterwards it sailed west and towards the South end of the Philippines and then up north into the South China Sea. The following image was from Chinese websites about the patj of the PLAN carrier group.

Here is an image of the 6 ships that made up the Liaoning carrier group as they passed through the Miyako Strait on June 10th. The pictures are from a JSDF report about the observation of those ships sailing by. The report itself is linked below the image.

https://www.mod.go.jp/js/Press/press2019/press_pdf/p20190611_01.pdf

This video was taken by some Vietnamese on a small boat i the South China Sea when they unexpectedly came upon the Liaoning sailing by. The video description says that the video was taken in June, 2019.

 

[Officer of Engineers]

It's a public statement to the Chinese. The JSDF can find the carrier. The JSDF can sink the carrier.