China's Uighur problem

Double Edge

Double Edge

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Thought we had a thread on this. We did. It's here

Topic don't stop just cause it got closed. This will be part deux

China Rebukes House Bill Condemning Crackdown On Uighurs | NPR | Dec 04 2019

The bipartisan bill, which passed the House in a 407-1 vote, condemns "gross human rights violations" against the Uighurs and calls for "an end to arbitrary detention, torture, and harassment of these communities inside and outside China."

The bill, which now goes to the Senate where passage seems certain, could further complicate movement toward a deal with China to end the ongoing trade war with Washington.

The measure passed Tuesday states that since 2014, Chinese authorities have detained some 800,000 Uighurs and other ethnic minorities and subjected them to brutal conditions.

The White House has not signaled whether the president will sign the bill. The Senate passed a similar measure in September. Sen. Marco Rubio, a sponsor of the bill, said, "I look forward to working with my Senate colleagues to get it passed and sent to the President for enactment."
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What does this bill do ?

It also calls on President Trump to take action to sanction senior Chinese officials involved in the abuses in Xinjiang.

The measure also calls for imposing export restrictions on technologies used to surveil the minority populations.
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Here's the run-down on the officials (and immediate family members) barred from traveling to the US, and subject to seizure of assets held there:

Chen Quanguo (陈全国) is the CCP Secretary of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and a member of the 19th Politburo. Prior to his current position, he was party boss in Tibet (2011-16), and Governor and Acting Governor of Hebei Province (2009-11). In Henan Province, he ran the Provincial School of Administration and Party School (2005-09) while serving as Deputy Secretary (2003-09). He also ran the Henan CCP Organization Department (2000-04), served as Vice Governor (1998-01), and as Acting Mayor of Luohe City (1996-98). He also has stints in the senior leadership of Pingdingshan and Suiping cities, also in Henan. Chen Joined the CCP in 1976 and has an economics degreee from Zhenghou University and an Econ MA from Wuhan Automotive Polytechnic University. He was born in Pingyu, Hunan Province, in 1955. Chen seems to be a protege of former PBSC member Li Changchun, and worked him and with Premier Li Keqiang when all three were in Henan Province.

Wang Mingshan (王明山) is the head of Xinjiang's Public Security Bureau (PSB).

Zhu Hailun (朱海仑) is Xinjiang CCP Deputy Secretary (2016-) and a former party head of Urumqi, the capital city (2009-16). Although he is a Han born in Jiangsu (1958), he speaks fluent Uyghur and has been based in the province since shortly after joining the CCP in 1980.

Huo Liujun (霍留军) was party secretary of the Xinjiang PSB.
 
Is cultural and demographic genocide a fair label for what China is doing?

Do people think that this is as dangerous as china gets or fast forward 20 years do people see the potential for an even greater evil?
 
tantalus said:
Is cultural and demographic genocide a fair label for what China is doing?

Do people think that this is as dangerous as china gets or fast forward 20 years do people see the potential for an even greater evil?
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Yes and yes. Makes 2 of us that think alike.
 
When forecasting X years into the future, it is very useful to go X years into the past, and remind yourself what it was like, how much can change in that time frame, and how easy it is to extrapolate from recent trends that may not continue exactly as they are seen at this time.

Having done formal 2, 5, 10, 20, and 50 year forecasts, I can tell you the shorter ones are the worst.
 
DOR said:
When forecasting X years into the future, it is very useful to go X years into the past, and remind yourself what it was like, how much can change in that time frame, and how easy it is to extrapolate from recent trends that may not continue exactly as they are seen at this time.

Having done formal 2, 5, 10, 20, and 50 year forecasts, I can tell you the shorter ones are the worst.
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I agree its a fools errand to predict the future. Logically longer term forecasts are even less likely to predict accurately.

I agree using history while being extremely careful to not fall into the cavernous trap of hindsight bias is a very useful. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

That said It might be time we treat China as a grave threat and try to create dialogue that hedges against the worst outcomes.
 
tantalus said:
Is cultural and demographic genocide a fair label for what China is doing?

Do people think that this is as dangerous as china gets or fast forward 20 years do people see the potential for an even greater evil?
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Would the great leap forward & cultural revolution come close for your first sentence ?

What terrible things have these people not already done.

Could they top it, not in their country.

They've already sorted out their majority population.

The Tibetans have been dealt with. HK is a work in progress.

Who else is left after the Uighurs ?

The danger i see is smaller countries along the periphery enacting Chinese laws that are as repressive.

Any country that China has a veto with. As a kowtow.
 
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Double Edge said:
Would the great leap forward & cultural revolution come close for your first sentence ?

What terrible things have these people not already done.

.
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It's a good point. The GLF probably dessrves the title of the greatest disaster of the 20th century. In my mind, rightly or wrongly, I have divided these chinas into two. The great Leap Forward was a China that was largely defined by ideology and incompetence. Todays China is defined by ruthlessness and competence and therefore the Uighurs are potentially the first terrible step of this new China...

Double Edge said:
They've already sorted out their majority population.

The Tibetans have been dealt with. HK is a work in progress.

Who else is left after the Uighurs ?

The danger i see is smaller countries along the periphery enacting Chinese laws that are as repressive.

Any country that China has a veto with. As a kowtow.
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It would be the Han and the irresistible temptation to apply ai and survelliance technology that surpasses even orwells wldlest dreams.

Double Edge said:
The danger i see is smaller countries along the periphery enacting Chinese laws that are as repressive.

Any country that China has a veto with. As a kowtow.
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I agree and not just the periphery. China is showing what is possible and has only just begun, exportation of its technology and laws are a grave concern. Now more than ever we could do with the promise of American Exceptalism being fulfilled, but the US needs to atleast deliver on the basic premise it promises its own citizens and not divide internally even further. Atleast both sides have coalesced around the idea that China is a problem and the old strategy has failed. The best thing the USA can do is fix its own problems first and quickly.
 
The longer the forecast, the easier it is. Demographics and geography don't change quickly, and institutions take some time to evolve or fade away.

When people throw around terms like genocide in reference to the Great Leap Forward – or worse, the Cultural Revolution – I have to assume that they are using the wrong term.

Genocide is an intentional effort to destroy a specific group of people. Neither of those events have that characteristic.
 
Tibet & Xinjiang - cultural & demographic genocide.

Rest of the world - genocide via bullying, threats, IP theft, hacking, stealing etcetera. Oh my!
 
Establishment view chronicling events going back to the 90s


Describes the problem but does not explain how the camps and policy post 2015 came about
 
DOR said:
The longer the forecast, the easier it is. Demographics and geography don't change quickly, and institutions take some time to evolve or fade away.

.
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I have to say I don't follow as the more time that passes, the more unknown unknowns can lead to unpredictable outcomes.



DOR said:
When people throw around terms like genocide in reference to the Great Leap Forward – or worse, the Cultural Revolution – I have to assume that they are using the wrong term.

Genocide is an intentional effort to destroy a specific group of people. Neither of those events have that characteristic.
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Ya that makes sense. If we misuse the world we weaken the moment when we do need it.
 
tantalus said:
I have to say I don't follow as the more time that passes, the more unknown unknowns can lead to unpredictable outcomes.
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No one who does this for a living makes highly specific forecasts beyond about 3-5 years, with the occasional exception of population growth rates (it takes a while to grow procreators). Our rule of thumb for economic growth was a single point figure for the first two years, then a gradually broadening range further out.

However, that's economics, which is highly numeric. When it comes to longer-term forecasts, you're looking at things like Will the the Indian middle class consumer market catch up with that of China, and if so, when? That requires deciding how to measure things (one of my favorites: anyone with motorized transportation or better is considered middle class), what assumptions to make about growth rates, and what assumptions to make about population increases.

Off the top of my head, the answer would be yes, in some time period over 25 years.
 
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