And the only way to prevent that if they do sortie would be to tie up so many of their blue water surface assets as screens and close escorts that they don't have enough left to cover the invasion forces! Kind of hard to be in two places at once even when you are desperately needed in both.
China-Taiwan: Aircraft carrier 'seals off' island on third day of drills
- Thread starter Amled
- Start date
And the only way to prevent that if they do sortie would be to tie up so many of their blue water surface assets as screens and close escorts that they don't have enough left to cover the invasion forces! Kind of hard to be in two places at once even when you are desperately needed in both.
Yeah, the carriers are probably toast in the war but I doubt it will be the Taiwanese that will do it. too hard a target for them, and not high enough on the priority list. same thing with the PLAN subs. Taiwan Navy is just gonna fight to survive, let alone conduct ASW.
they sure are now. they received warning from the US on this for years, and this was a wake-up call.
OTOH places like the Jiashan fortified mountain bunkers are gonna be a tough nut for PLA firepower to crack, even if they're hitting it from the Pacific side. moreover if the Chinese are gonna maneuver enough forces to actually execute a credible Pacific side attack, that by itself would work as serious indications and warnings that a real war is imminent.
and the US/Japan/Australian subs would be salivating at the prospect of the PLAN coming out to the eastern side to play...PLAN subs would have less survival time than a chew toy on this forum.
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DOR
Voter
Pacific side ... landing?
Crossing the Taiwan Strait is tough enough -- nothing like D-Day; really tough -- but executing a swing around the island?
Or, is this strictly airborne ?
Crossing the Taiwan Strait is tough enough -- nothing like D-Day; really tough -- but executing a swing around the island?
Or, is this strictly airborne ?
As the good Col mentioned, just standoff strike.
Think the most the PLA would swing in terms of actual landing MIGHT be an attempt on port of Keelung. Easiest to get to Taipei City from there, but I can’t imagine the second/third waves are gonna be real happy with their butt swinging open in the wind.
DOR
Voter
Taiwan 2024 Presidential Nominees
William Lai Ching-te, the 64 year-old Vice President, is a former Premier (2017-19), Tainan mayor (2010-17), DPP legislator (1999-2010), and National Assemblyman (1996-99). He resigned as President of the Executive Yuan (premier) after 16 months following severe setbacks in local elections. He then challenged President Tsai Ing-wen for the party leadership, and lost. Lai subsequently joined Tsai's successful campaign as the Vice Presidential nominee. He has a Master's degree in Public Health from Harvard.
Lai rose out of the former New Tide opposition faction associated with independence activists (as opposed to reform-minded elected Tangwai officials). Although the faction later moderated its independence stance, it has long been considered the more progressive – and very successful – wing of the non-KMT political spectrum. The party eliminated factions in 2006.
In his first speech to the Legislative Yuan, the newly appointed Premier said, "I am a political worker who advocates Taiwan independence" but that "We are already an independent sovereign nation called the Republic of China. We don't need a separate declaration of independence."
KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih (65) is a noncontroversial former head of the National Police Agency (2006-08) and mayor (2015-) and Vice Mayor (2010-15) of New Taipei City (the municipality of four million residents surrounding Taipei [population: 2.5 mn]). He has a doctorate in criminology. Hou has avoided commenting on independence, preferring to ask for unity in the face of “fierce and dangerous international circumstances.”
William Lai Ching-te, the 64 year-old Vice President, is a former Premier (2017-19), Tainan mayor (2010-17), DPP legislator (1999-2010), and National Assemblyman (1996-99). He resigned as President of the Executive Yuan (premier) after 16 months following severe setbacks in local elections. He then challenged President Tsai Ing-wen for the party leadership, and lost. Lai subsequently joined Tsai's successful campaign as the Vice Presidential nominee. He has a Master's degree in Public Health from Harvard.
Lai rose out of the former New Tide opposition faction associated with independence activists (as opposed to reform-minded elected Tangwai officials). Although the faction later moderated its independence stance, it has long been considered the more progressive – and very successful – wing of the non-KMT political spectrum. The party eliminated factions in 2006.
In his first speech to the Legislative Yuan, the newly appointed Premier said, "I am a political worker who advocates Taiwan independence" but that "We are already an independent sovereign nation called the Republic of China. We don't need a separate declaration of independence."
KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih (65) is a noncontroversial former head of the National Police Agency (2006-08) and mayor (2015-) and Vice Mayor (2010-15) of New Taipei City (the municipality of four million residents surrounding Taipei [population: 2.5 mn]). He has a doctorate in criminology. Hou has avoided commenting on independence, preferring to ask for unity in the face of “fierce and dangerous international circumstances.”
DOR
Voter
Crisis Management and the Taiwan Situation: Chinese Views and Conflict Avoidance,
by Michael D. Swaine, China Leadership Monitor Issue 76, Summer 2023, June 1,2023 [https://www.prcleader.org/76-swaine]
Abstract:
As the United States and China continue to clash over the contentious Taiwan issue, the likelihood of serious diplomatic and military crises between Washington and Beijing is poised to grow in the years ahead. Tendencies to overreact on both sides, reinforced by their deepening mutual hostility and suspicion, could make a dangerous escalation more likely in a crisis. It is increasingly crucial for Washington and Beijing to possess more reliable and effective bilateral crisis management mechanisms and procedures that can help them avoid crises and prevent escalation when crises occur. Despite some progress over the years, the U.S.-China crisis management system remains largely fragile and insufficient. The existing limits and deficiencies stem from a broad array of factors in Chinese and American crisis management views, approaches, and practices that drive both sides to engage in less credible and often escalatory behavior before and during a crisis.
by Michael D. Swaine, China Leadership Monitor Issue 76, Summer 2023, June 1,2023 [https://www.prcleader.org/76-swaine]
Abstract:
As the United States and China continue to clash over the contentious Taiwan issue, the likelihood of serious diplomatic and military crises between Washington and Beijing is poised to grow in the years ahead. Tendencies to overreact on both sides, reinforced by their deepening mutual hostility and suspicion, could make a dangerous escalation more likely in a crisis. It is increasingly crucial for Washington and Beijing to possess more reliable and effective bilateral crisis management mechanisms and procedures that can help them avoid crises and prevent escalation when crises occur. Despite some progress over the years, the U.S.-China crisis management system remains largely fragile and insufficient. The existing limits and deficiencies stem from a broad array of factors in Chinese and American crisis management views, approaches, and practices that drive both sides to engage in less credible and often escalatory behavior before and during a crisis.
Michael Swaine tries his hand at both-sides-ism.
Anyone who has worked on this issue of mil-to-mil knows the real reason is because the CCP is not interested in "bilateral crisis management mechanisms" because for the most part, they feel uncertainty works in their favor.
the one time the Chinese picked up the DTL was when THEY were scared that Trump was gonna do an October surprise via an attack.
Anyone who has worked on this issue of mil-to-mil knows the real reason is because the CCP is not interested in "bilateral crisis management mechanisms" because for the most part, they feel uncertainty works in their favor.
the one time the Chinese picked up the DTL was when THEY were scared that Trump was gonna do an October surprise via an attack.