As Canada isn't the only place having an election this week I might as well offer a few insights and explanation to our non-Australian posters. In the interests of full disclosure I'm a pretty rusted on Labor (ALP) voter, but I'll try to keep this as unbiased as I can. I'm sure Monash will jump in to keep me honest if required. 
OK, so first the system and the players. We have a bicameral Parliament and a multi party system. Our lower house or House of Representitives is based on single member constituencies and elected using preferential voting. The upper house or Senate is notionally the State's house, with 12 senators per state (and two each for the two territories) based on proportional representation and an impossibly complicated preferential system ). The main parties are: The Labor party (ALP), a centre left party that has been shifting firmly toward the centre for over 40 years; The Liberal party, a centre right party that has been shifting firmly to the right for 30 years (arguably 50, but thats another discussion); The National party, a right wing agrarian socialist party that represents rural voters & is in permenant coalition with the Liberals - collectively the LNP; The Greens - you already know. There are a bunch of minor parties not worth explaining, but the other relvant grouping is a collection of centre-right independents (not a formal party) known as the Teals. They grabbed a bunch of formerly safe LNP seats at the last election based on their support for environmental & more progressive social policies. They have created a major impediment to the LNP forming a government.
In 2022 Labor returned to power under Anthony Albanese (universally known as Albo) an affable former member of the party's left who shifted centre more recently. While he only gained a small majority, the immense unpopularity of the LNP government made him very popular initially. The leader of the opposition is Peter Dutton, a member of the party's right who lacks Albo's ease with people....to put it mildly. Dutton is most effective on the attack and is especially fond of 'culture wars' issues. He got his opportunity when the ALP held a referrendum on constitutional recognition for Indigenous people in the constitution in late 2023. This had originally been a bipartisan endevour, but Dutton unsurprisingly opposed it and it was defeated. Following that Albanese's popularity dropped & he adopted a more cautious style. Additionally, the war in Gaza has been an issue for the ALP, with muslim voters generally concentrated in ALP seats and an ALP senator leaving the party to form her own Muslim-based party. Another problem for the ALP is an increasingly unpopular Labor state government in Victoria, easily Labor's strongest state. By late last year the LNP was consistently polling ahead of the ALP and Dutton was more explicitly associating himself with the ascendant Donald Trump. That seemed a winning strategy at the start of the year, but Trump's erratic behaviour has seen the LNP desperately trying to distance itself from him.
As is often the case with politics, most people only start paying attention when the campaign begins. The election was called in late March for May 3. By this point the LNP vote had begun to drop & the ALP was level or slightly ahead. It is fair to say the LNP has had a nightmare of a campaign. As mentioned, Albo has an advantage in the 'likeability' stakes and Dutton's preferred style of attacking has been undermined by people's reaction to Trump. That alone would be an issue, but the LNP doesn't seem to have thought out its policies very well. The result is multiple backflips & contradictory messages. A policy to build nuclear reactors that was supposed to appeal to people after lower energy prices has become increasingly unpopular and seems unlikely to help win back 'Teal' seats or Victorian voters. The ALP hasn't done anything spectacular, but it has been disciplined & on message. Dutton has increasingly retreated to 'culture wars' issues that look more aimed at stopping LNP voters drifting to right wing minor parties than trying to gain seats from the ALP or Teals.
As of today polling says that the ALP will retain and possibly expand its majority while the Liberal party will register its lowest vote since the party's foundation in 1944. I am not convinced of either claim. I suspect there will be some very odd results in individual seats. So, my prediction is a minority ALP government that negotiates with the Greens & Teals to guarantee supply. That said, I won't be shocked with a narrow ALP win. Other results seem considerably less likely.
While there are some similarities here with Canada, they should not be overstated. The ALP was never as unpopular as the Liberals in Canada & they weren't burdened with a leader as unpopular as Trudeau. The LNP was ahead for the past 6 months, but not as far ahead as the Conservatives in Canada. They also have a leader who has never been especially popular personally. While Trump has had an impact here, he is not the issue he is in Canada. Further, Australia has not thrown out a first term government at Federal level since 1932 - the depth of the Great Depression. That said, with cost of living still an issue here there was definately an opening for the opposition, but they had to have a more effective strategy.
By this time tomorrow we will likely know the results.
OK, so first the system and the players. We have a bicameral Parliament and a multi party system. Our lower house or House of Representitives is based on single member constituencies and elected using preferential voting. The upper house or Senate is notionally the State's house, with 12 senators per state (and two each for the two territories) based on proportional representation and an impossibly complicated preferential system ). The main parties are: The Labor party (ALP), a centre left party that has been shifting firmly toward the centre for over 40 years; The Liberal party, a centre right party that has been shifting firmly to the right for 30 years (arguably 50, but thats another discussion); The National party, a right wing agrarian socialist party that represents rural voters & is in permenant coalition with the Liberals - collectively the LNP; The Greens - you already know. There are a bunch of minor parties not worth explaining, but the other relvant grouping is a collection of centre-right independents (not a formal party) known as the Teals. They grabbed a bunch of formerly safe LNP seats at the last election based on their support for environmental & more progressive social policies. They have created a major impediment to the LNP forming a government.
In 2022 Labor returned to power under Anthony Albanese (universally known as Albo) an affable former member of the party's left who shifted centre more recently. While he only gained a small majority, the immense unpopularity of the LNP government made him very popular initially. The leader of the opposition is Peter Dutton, a member of the party's right who lacks Albo's ease with people....to put it mildly. Dutton is most effective on the attack and is especially fond of 'culture wars' issues. He got his opportunity when the ALP held a referrendum on constitutional recognition for Indigenous people in the constitution in late 2023. This had originally been a bipartisan endevour, but Dutton unsurprisingly opposed it and it was defeated. Following that Albanese's popularity dropped & he adopted a more cautious style. Additionally, the war in Gaza has been an issue for the ALP, with muslim voters generally concentrated in ALP seats and an ALP senator leaving the party to form her own Muslim-based party. Another problem for the ALP is an increasingly unpopular Labor state government in Victoria, easily Labor's strongest state. By late last year the LNP was consistently polling ahead of the ALP and Dutton was more explicitly associating himself with the ascendant Donald Trump. That seemed a winning strategy at the start of the year, but Trump's erratic behaviour has seen the LNP desperately trying to distance itself from him.
As is often the case with politics, most people only start paying attention when the campaign begins. The election was called in late March for May 3. By this point the LNP vote had begun to drop & the ALP was level or slightly ahead. It is fair to say the LNP has had a nightmare of a campaign. As mentioned, Albo has an advantage in the 'likeability' stakes and Dutton's preferred style of attacking has been undermined by people's reaction to Trump. That alone would be an issue, but the LNP doesn't seem to have thought out its policies very well. The result is multiple backflips & contradictory messages. A policy to build nuclear reactors that was supposed to appeal to people after lower energy prices has become increasingly unpopular and seems unlikely to help win back 'Teal' seats or Victorian voters. The ALP hasn't done anything spectacular, but it has been disciplined & on message. Dutton has increasingly retreated to 'culture wars' issues that look more aimed at stopping LNP voters drifting to right wing minor parties than trying to gain seats from the ALP or Teals.
As of today polling says that the ALP will retain and possibly expand its majority while the Liberal party will register its lowest vote since the party's foundation in 1944. I am not convinced of either claim. I suspect there will be some very odd results in individual seats. So, my prediction is a minority ALP government that negotiates with the Greens & Teals to guarantee supply. That said, I won't be shocked with a narrow ALP win. Other results seem considerably less likely.
While there are some similarities here with Canada, they should not be overstated. The ALP was never as unpopular as the Liberals in Canada & they weren't burdened with a leader as unpopular as Trudeau. The LNP was ahead for the past 6 months, but not as far ahead as the Conservatives in Canada. They also have a leader who has never been especially popular personally. While Trump has had an impact here, he is not the issue he is in Canada. Further, Australia has not thrown out a first term government at Federal level since 1932 - the depth of the Great Depression. That said, with cost of living still an issue here there was definately an opening for the opposition, but they had to have a more effective strategy.
By this time tomorrow we will likely know the results.
