A new Indo-Pak War

I am worried this time there is no international leadership to prevent a conflict like this from escalating after the US has abdicated its role.

During the last crisis in 2019 there were fears that both sides suspected the other of readying nuclear weapons and American diplomacy was key is addressing fears and getting both sides to back down.

I guess we are seeing a glimpse of how the world will be without a dominant US; the risk of conflict seems to be increasing everywhere and leaders seem to be taking actions they may not have in the past; like India suspending the Indus water treaty. The Russia-Ukraine war seems to be going on indefinitely; Israel has no restraints in hitting Gaza even after tens of thousands of death. Another war in South Asia is just another worrying item to the list.
 
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India has officially stated all pilots that participated in the operation are safe, without discussing aircraft. Reuters has a story claiming 4 separate local government sources saying 3 Indian aircraft down. From debris that landed in Punjab, the Pakistanis used at least in that instance Chinese-made PL-15E air-to-air missile. From some pictures of aircraft debris, one of the crashes shows the M88 engine of a Rafale.

There's no confirmation on if the Pakistanis shot down any or all of the Indian aircraft or if it was mechanical failures. Pakistan claims they shot down the aircraft with Chinese-made Chengdu J-10CE's (Firebirds).

2 of the Indian aircraft crashes occurred in Wuyan and Bathinda. The one in Wuyan the Indians have apparently already cleaned up.
 
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The only piece of wreckage I saw televised from Pakistan was apparently a drop tank which is hardly evidence of a confirmed kill. If there's a still image of the Rafale that would seem to definitely indicate the Indians suffered at least one casualty.
 
Monash said:
The only piece of wreckage I saw televised from Pakistan was apparently a drop tank which is hardly evidence of a confirmed kill. If there's a still image of the Rafale that would seem to definitely indicate the Indians suffered at least one casualty.
Click to expand...
Jim Sciutto of CNN has French intelligence confirming to him "at least one" Rafale was shot down.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1920142813498311108

Pakistan claims they hit 5: 3 Rafales, 1 Sukhoi, and 1 MiG. One of these they say were able to return to base although I'm unclear which one of the 5. India as far as I can see have yet to say anything officially about aircraft. But if we take at face value 3 aircraft were shot down, I think India's reason for the operation considering that fact probably makes the operation a complete failure. I think they wanted to do what Israel did to Iran of "we can attack you at will militarily and you can't do anything about it", which screams hubris to me but whatever. However Pakistan if they were able to shoot down 3 of the latest Indian fighters, we're pretty far away from what Israel did to Iran. Thus why I think this war is continuing into today where they're now trading drone and missile strikes and India is reported to be targeting Pakistan's air defense systems, India have to get back toward their desired end goal.
 
If the Pakistani claims are true, then it might be the first time that a Chinese made jet aircraft has brought down a Western manufactured warplane like the Rafale. Just wondering if there is any analysis of the newer Chinese warplane models and how they stack against their Western counterparts?
 

Exclusive: Pakistan's Chinese-made jet brought down two Indian fighter aircraft, US officials say​

ISLAMABAD/WASHINGTON, May 8 (Reuters) - A top Chinese-made Pakistani fighter plane shot down at least two Indian military aircraft on Wednesday, two U.S. officials told Reuters, marking a major milestone for Beijing's advanced fighter jet.

An Indian Air Force spokesperson said he had no comment when asked about the Reuters report.

The performance of a leading Chinese fighter jet against a Western rival is being closely watched in Washington for insights into how Beijing might fare in any showdown over Taiwan or the wider Indo-Pacific.

One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was high confidence that Pakistan had used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets - bringing down at least two.
Another official said at least one Indian jet that was shot down was a French-made Rafale fighter aircraft.

Both officials said Pakistan's F-16 aircraft, made by Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), opens new tab, were not used in the shootdown.

Delhi has not acknowledged the loss of any of its planes and instead said it carried out successful strikes against what it said was "terrorist" infrastructure inside Pakistan.

World powers from the U.S. to Russia and China have called for calm in one of the world's most dangerous, and most populated, nuclear flashpoint regions.

In France, Rafale manufacturer Dassault Aviation (AM.PA), opens new tab and the MBDA (AIR.PA), opens new tab, (BAES.L), opens new tab, (LDOF.MI), opens new tab consortium, which makes the Meteor air-to-air missile, could not immediately be reached for comment on a public holiday.

While Reuters reported on Wednesday that three Indian planes went down, citing local government officials in India, this marks the first Western confirmation that Pakistan's Chinese-made jets were used in the shootdowns.

Pakistan’s Defense minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, told Reuters on Thursday that the J-10 was used to shoot down three French-made Rafale planes, which were newly acquired by India.

Altogether, Pakistan says it downed five Indian planes in air-to-air combat.

CLOSELY EYING​

The Rafale and the model of the J-10 used by Pakistan are both considered generation 4.5 fighter jets, placing them at the leading edge of combat aircraft.

Western analysts and defense industry sources said the live use of some of the advanced weapons that could be deployed in future major power conflicts would be scrutinized in minute detail, but emphasized it was too early to draw firm conclusions.

"Air warfare communities in China, the U.S. and a number of European countries will be extremely interested to try and get as much ground truth as they can on tactics, techniques, procedures, what kit was used, what worked and what didn't," said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Social media posts highlighted the face-off between China's PL-15 air-to-air missile against the Meteor, produced by European missile group MBDA (AIR.PA), opens new tab(BAES.L), opens new tab(LDOF.MI), opens new tab.

But the analysts and sources said crucial details were unclear including whether Meteors were carried or how they may have been deployed.
"At the moment it's not possible to judge anything. We know so little," a Western defense industry source said.

Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan have fought three major wars, as well as numerous smaller conflicts.

Blasts rang out across the city of Jammu in Indian Kashmir late on Thursday during what Indian military sources said they suspected was a Pakistani drone attack across the region on the second day of clashes between the neighbors.
Pakistan said earlier on Thursday it shot down 25 drones from India overnight, while India said its air defenses had stopped Pakistani drone and missile attacks on military targets.
 
Indian and Pakistani media and their partisans make the Russians look like arbiters of truth. You can't find out what is really going on from local sources because they're just being rah rah cheerleaders that lie. And Western news outlets seem to be reporting on the conflict with kids' gloves, either because they don't know anything as well or they don't want to piss off either side.
 
It appears that the Indians have managed to kill senior leaders in the LeT organization, there has been footage of the funerals. The downing of the jets, atleast two, seems to have been confirmed by US and French Intelligence. It appears that the Indian Air force did not expect an attack in its own airspace and failed to detect the incoming missiles, which may point to a tactical failure rather any superiority of the Chinese built platform. So it seems that both sides can take some success from the the current operations and avoid further escalation.

The reports of drone attacks on multiple major cities in both countries seems a worrying development.
 
Mass drone warfare going on. India have told Twitter to ban 8000 Twitter accounts in the country that seem to coincide with people and orgs that discussed the downed aircraft honestly. (Twitter complied.) Blackouts enforced in the border region of Jammu. Pakistan amusingly are saying they have not retaliated against the Indians at all. Saudi diplomat just left Pakistan and it apparently did not go well.
 
Well 24 hours later & those same sources now indicate that the fighting seems to have died down at last. Hopefully things will reset to 'normal' over the next few days and diplomacy will win out (till the next time there's a major terrorist attack in Kashmir :cautious: .)
 
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