2023 Israeli-Gazan War

[rj1]

News coming in now Israel has orchestrated the missile or bomb strike in Qatar. Apparently it was intended to kill senior members of Hamas's who are leading their side of the cease fire/peace negotiations in Qatar! Reports by Qatari officials indicate indicate 5 members of the Hamas negotiating team were killed along with one Qatari security officer. Senior officials who were the intended target were apparently not injured.

Senior Qatari officials are claiming that the US government provided them with a warning of the attack - 10 minutes after it occurred! Qatar also reports that it's US provided military radar systems did not detect the incoming attack even though the system worked perfectly in June when it detected incoming missile strikes from Iran aimed at a US Airbase in the country. Nations around the world are piling in to condemn the strike and are calling for action.

IMO if it is true the strike got in & out undetected then the apparent failure of the US early warning system to work as intended will at the least cause the Qatari Government to 'reevaluate' future purchases of US military hardware and/or the extent of it's ongoing military co-operation with the US. The failure of the US Government to provide advance notice of the attack is also problematic. The Qatari's might even be considering whether the US tampered with their radar network to give the Israel's a short window of opportunity to carry out the strike although that might be a step too far even for the current administration. Trump is reportedly 'not happy' with the Israelis which probably means Bibi is going to get a slap on the wrist before normal service resumes next week.

Occam's Razor tells you either the Americans were complicit or the Israelis infiltrated the air defense systems either in Qatar or when they were still in the U.S. and put in a backdoor that could disable them on command. The caveat to "the Americans are complicit" is either it's designed to give the President plausible deniability, or there's some select people in the U.S. defense apparatus that have "tangled allegiances" and working for another team.

Geopolitically, all these Arab states only deal for the U.S. to buy their own security. If they can't even do that, what's it worth? Qatar hosts CENTCOM and in the past few months has gotten bombed by both Iran and Israel.

 

[Monash]

Occam's Razor tells you either the Americans were complicit or the Israelis infiltrated the air defense systems either in Qatar or when they were still in the U.S. and put in a backdoor that could disable them on command. The caveat to "the Americans are complicit" is either it's designed to give the President plausible deniability, or there's some select people in the U.S. defense apparatus that have "tangled allegiances".

Geopolitically, all these Arab states only deal for the U.S. to buy their own security. If they can't even do that, what's it worth? Qatar hosts CENTCOM and in the past few months has gotten bombed by both Iran and Israel.

It could be that American ADR systems can't detect the F-35 I suppose and the Israelis do have that platform. It would certainly be embarrassing having to admit the radar systems your selling to allies around the world either can't detect incoming strikes by your top fighter or else have been nobbled so that non US users can't detect them.

 

[rj1]

Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East guy for the Economist:

Didn't clock this last night, but the optics of Netanyahu announcing (and joking about) the attack on Qatar *at a US embassy event*—while the Trump administration was simultaneously trying to insist it was shocked and upset by the attack—they're, um, quite something

Nobody in the region is going to buy the White House spin. Personally I think they're correct not to: it's too implausible to believe that America wasn't read in. But if you want to look like you're shocked and upset, dunno, maybe you start by cancelling Netanyahu's party invite?

We're almost to our third year of leaks about how such-and-such an Israeli action infuriated the White House, none of which have translated into any meaningful policy change. It's the one real through-line between Biden and Trump.

 

[rj1]

Amit Segal

@AmitSegal
·
5h

Israeli sources say there’s still no confirmation that any of those senior Hamas officials were indeed eliminated.

Sources in Qatar claim that the strike was carried out minutes after the officials’ meeting ended

 

[rj1]

Netanyahu in a speech to Israeli industry said the country would have to become autarkic due to its increasing economic isolation. He blames Muslim immigration to the Western world, Qatar, China, and social media.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-admits-israel-is-economically-isolated-will-need-to-become-self-reliant/

 

[Monash]

Netanyahu in a speech to Israeli industry said the country would have to become autarkic due to its increasing economic isolation. He blames Muslim immigration to the Western world, Qatar, China, and social media.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-admits-israel-is-economically-isolated-will-need-to-become-self-reliant/

Lets see how many Israeli businesses agree with him that doing so is possible (and how many disagree and start voting with their feet).

 

[rj1]

Lets see how many Israeli businesses agree with him that doing is so is possible (and how many disagree and start voting with their feet).

If you told me what's the end game of all this I say Israel annexes sections of Gaza and the West Bank, renames them, war keeps going at a low level, this U.S. government is on board, and everyone else except the U.S. and their very close allies gives them the South Africa treatment. Spain's Prime Minister after a pretty disastrous Vuelta Espana cycling race where an Israeli team took part and protesters pretty much ruined the race and its last day has called for a sport boycott on the same grounds for why Russia is under a sports boycott. While Spain are not the power, the talk has at least started. You look at the UN resolution vote endorsing the path toward a two-state solution this past week and the only countries of any note that joined the U.S. and Israel of course voting against were Hungary and Argentina. The next most powerful country after them was Paraguay.

The danger for Israel is remove American friendship and what's left for them? The Abraham Accords are pretty much dead following their attack in Qatar. That Tel Aviv to New York flight is pretty long and narrow through the Mediterranean. It's not going to happen under this President but a Democrat becoming President in 2029 is very plausible and Buttigieg already got shamed down talking about his Israeli friends in the context of a Democrat presidential primary where the comment got made something in the vein of "if your friends kill 50,000 people, why are you friends with them?" There's people in the Democratic Party that are pro-Israel but I think the party is gone on this point outside of northeastern Jews like N.J. Rep. Josh Gottheimer, and those types are not winning a charged primary where foreign policy comes up. (Throw on top of it the muddled response to Trump coming to power has finally led to calls inside the Democratic Party to get rid of their internal gerontocracy, and replacing 80-year-olds with 40-year-olds is going to lead to a way more critical viewpoint toward Israel. Trump has told Israel the same thing as well of young Republicans are much more critical of Israel.) You almost need a current opposition Israeli Prime Minister that throws the further right elements under a bus possibly for war crimes to bring them back into good graces, and I'm not sure that's possible in Israeli politics.

On that point, the Israelis this week hosted "250 state legislators - 5 from each state and bipartisan" to give them the tour and be anti-BDS. Not sure how many Republicans vs. Democrats. What AIPAC and like-minded PAC's do in 2026 and 2028 will be interesting to say the least.

 

[tbm3fan]

Lets see how many Israeli businesses agree with him that doing is so is possible (and how many disagree and start voting with their feet).

Sounds like the bunker mentality is taking him down the rabbit hole. Soon, he may become Moses in his head, and he will be leading Israel somewhere. Only that somewhere is not going to be the Promised Land.

 

[Monash]

If you told me what's the end game of all this I say Israel annexes sections of Gaza and the West Bank, renames them, war keeps going at a low level, this U.S. government is on board, and everyone else except the U.S. and their very close allies gives them the South Africa treatment. Spain's Prime Minister after a pretty disastrous Vuelta Espana cycling race where an Israeli team took part and protesters pretty much ruined the race and its last day has called for a sport boycott on the same grounds for why Russia is under a sports boycott. While Spain are not the power, the talk has at least started. You look at the UN resolution vote endorsing the path toward a two-state solution this past week and the only countries of any note that joined the U.S. and Israel of course voting against were Hungary and Argentina. The next most powerful country after them was Paraguay.

The danger for Israel is remove American friendship and what's left for them? The Abraham Accords are pretty much dead following their attack in Qatar. That Tel Aviv to New York flight is pretty long and narrow through the Mediterranean. It's not going to happen under this President but a Democrat becoming President in 2029 is very plausible and Buttigieg already got shamed down talking about his Israeli friends in the context of a Democrat presidential primary where the comment got made something in the vein of "if your friends kill 50,000 people, why are you friends with them?" There's people in the Democratic Party that are pro-Israel but I think the party is gone on this point outside of northeastern Jews like N.J. Rep. Josh Gottheimer, and those types are not winning a charged primary where foreign policy comes up. (Throw on top of it the muddled response to Trump coming to power has finally led to calls inside the Democratic Party to get rid of their internal gerontocracy, and replacing 80-year-olds with 40-year-olds is going to lead to a way more critical viewpoint toward Israel. Trump has told Israel the same thing as well of young Republicans are much more critical of Israel.) You almost need a current opposition Israeli Prime Minister that throws the further right elements under a bus possibly for war crimes to bring them back into good graces, and I'm not sure that's possible in Israeli politics.

On that point, the Israelis this week hosted "250 state legislators - 5 from each state and bipartisan" to give them the tour and be anti-BDS. Not sure how many Republicans vs. Democrats. What AIPAC and like-minded PAC's do in 2026 and 2028 will be interesting to say the least.

IMO the wars in Gaza and Ukraine have this much in common - the leaders of both Russia and Israel 'own them'. Get rid of the leaders and you get rid of the wars because it gives whoever replaces them the chance to hit the 'reset' button'. I'm not claiming both are identicle BTW for example Israel had every right and indeed arguably needed to respond with military force after Hamas's attack of October 2023 while Putin's little soiree in Ukraine was an act of aggression from day one. It's what the Gazan war has morphed into over time that makes it similar in that regard to Ukraine. Both leaders are the ones pushing the war and to a greater or lesser extent their survival depends on the outcome. Putin at least has the option of calling it a day, drawing a line on a map and claiming victory before returning to business as usual. BiBi? Is at risk of going to jail the moment he loses office! Which he will eventually even after he annexes all of the strip and every inch of Palestinian land in the West Bank because the Palestinians (at least what's left of them) will still be there! The other difference? Where ordinary Russians have never backed the war from day one almost all Israelis did support their war in the beginning, it's just that the longer it goes on now the fewer there are who still support it.

As for sanctions on Israel? One way to start might be reducing the number of flights in to and out of Israel passing through Europe. That would cause great difficulties without crippling the economy immediately. Trump would have a fit of course but what can he do? Ban flights from Europe to the US or tariff them to death? US Airlines and other business sectors would turn on him in an instant - they need those flights.

 

[Monash]

Sounds like the bunker mentality is taking him down the rabbit hole. Soon, he may become Moses in his head, and he will be leading Israel somewhere. Only that somewhere is not going to be the Promised Land.

In his head? 'Apparently the 'promised land' is Gaza . Maybe he has a 'thing' for crushed concrete.

 

[rj1]

Times of London and other news outlets reporting that Israel are set to be suspended from the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) next week in the aftermath of the UN genocide declaration. While it does not mean Israel are kicked out of FIFA, it would be an effective boycott as they pretty much would have nowhere else to go and play on a confederation level as the Asians and Africans would certainly not take them. Israel still have a chance at the moment of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup (to be held in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico) although they're supposed to play Norway October 11th and the Norwegians are deciding whether to play the game or not.

I guess if it happened they could play Russia and Belarus in friendlies.

 

[Monash]

Times of London and other news outlets reporting that Israel are set to be suspended from the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) next week in the aftermath of the UN genocide declaration. While it does not mean Israel are kicked out of FIFA, it would be an effective boycott as they pretty much would have nowhere else to go and play on a confederation level as the Asians and Africans would certainly not take them. Israel still have a chance at the moment of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup (to be held in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico) although they're supposed to play Norway October 11th and the Norwegians are deciding whether to play the game or not.

I guess if it happened they could play Russia and Belarus in friendlies.

And enter Intervision next year, what fun!

 

[rj1]

Tim Marshall's latest regarding Trump's discussion with Muslim nation leaders in New York:

​

​

SAUDI TROOPS IN GAZA?​

​

After this week's meeting with Trump at the UN - it's possible.​

Tim Marshall Sep 26

​

Representatives from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, Jordan, UAE, Egypt, Qatar and Indonesia took part, all were senior politicians and included four heads of state (Turkey/Qatar/Jordan/Indonesia). The immediate issue before them was Gaza, but the deeper strategy was also on the table.​

The White House wants the Saudis to lead a multi-national security force made up of all, or some, of the eight countries which will police Gaza in the aftermath of an end to the war there. This throws up several problems to be solved. Firstly, Saudi Arabia has no experience in such an operation and would probably have to cooperate with Turkey. However, Ankara and Riyadh are competing with each other (and Iran) to be the dominant Muslim power in the Middle East. Secondly, both have difficult relations with Israel but would have to co-operate with it during Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza and the subsequent rebuilding process. The Israelis will want security guarantees as they pull out and then the right to inspect aid and materials going in afterwards.​

To facilitate co-operation enroute to a ceasefire it’s thought Trump pushed Turkey and Saudi Arabia to put aside their rivalry when it comes to Gaza, and argued that Turkey should work with Israel to reduce tensions between them. In the longer term, if peace can come to Gaza, the White House will revive the idea of Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords and normalise relations with Israel. This in turn is supposed to lead to a wider acceptance of Israel in the region, meaning fewer conflicts and more trade deals.​

It’s all ‘doable’ but difficult. Saudi Arabia’s security anxieties have been partially assuaged by last week’s signing of a mutual defence pact with its long-time ally Pakistan and it’s probable we will see Pakistani troops in Saudi Arabia before too long. However, the Saudis still need to come to an arrangement with Turkey and Israel over Syria. The latter two each occupy parts of the country. Turkish troops are stationed in the north, close to the Kurdish regions, while the IDF has established a buffer zone in Druze dominated areas of Syria, notably Mount Hermon and the Yarmouk Valley. This seriously stymies Riyadh’s attempts to rebuild influence there following the overthrow of President Assad. Also, Turkey and Israel need to ensure their forces inside Syria do not clash.
That is for the middle term, in the short term the task is to build a peace keeping force for Gaza with a clear leadership structure, funding, and terms of operation. Turkey’s President Erdogan, who was at the UN meeting said it had been ‘fruitful’ so it’s possible there is progress. However, there’s an even more difficult task - creating a peace to keep.​

Considering current state of Israeli-Turkish relations, would Israel go for this?

Trump has said he won't let Israel annexation the West Bank.

In other news, Tony Blair's career is getting resurrected from the dead and is angling to have the Paul Bremer role running Gaza as its transitional administrator to then handover to a new Palestinian administration.

 

[rj1]

It's reported Israel and Hamas have come to an agreement on Phase 1 of the peace plan. All hostages released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and the Israelis to withdraw to a line in Gaza.

See how it holds. Netanyahu has to present to his government for approval.

 

[Monash]

It's reported Israel and Hamas have come to an agreement on Phase 1 of the peace plan. All hostages released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and the Israelis to withdraw to a line in Gaza.

See how it holds. Netanyahu has to present to his government for approval.

There's a high probability the arch conservative factions won't agree especially since as far as I am aware there are no orthodox prisoners still in Hamas's hands and they want the entire strip annexed and it's occupants expelled. That being the case? My guess is it will come down to whether or not Trump has been serious about the US putting real pressure on Bi Bi & Israel if it doesn't comply. We'll know soon enough I guess.

 

[TopHatter]

Breaking News….
US President spews hyperbolic bullshit.


_______

Translation: "My peace 'plan' didn't work! I told everybody I could solve this in 5 minutes and now I don't know what to do!"

I thought he solved the crisis that no one else could for 3,000 years! Maybe it was just concepts of a peace plan....