We'll see. The problem is that so far Trump has been flip flopping all over the place on foreign policy (and other) issues. For example, the war in Ukraine. First Zlelenskii is the cause of the failure to achieve a peace deal then Putin, then back again and so on and so on. At the moment it's almost impossible to 2nd guess what he's likely to say/do next. Hopefully he'll settle down over time, otherwise we're in for a wild 3 years
2023 Israeli-Gazan War
- Thread starter Ironduke
- Start date
Revisiting this topic after a year. Support for Israel has declined amongst US adults after almost 2 years of war.
How Americans view Israel and the Israel-Hamas war at the start of Trump’s second term
A slight majority of Americans (54%) say the Israel-Hamas war is either very or somewhat important to them personally.
www.pewresearch.org
A significant majority of Democrats now have a negative view of Israel, support for Israel has declined amongst Republicans too. There are influential voices on the right, Tucker Carlson comes to mind who openly question the level of US support for Israel.
In the short term it still won't lead to any changes in policy, and definitely not in the Trump administration.
In the longer term, it needs to be seen. I think the near unconditional support of Israel by successive US Governments comes from a combination of factors, cold war politics, sympathy for jews after the holocaust in the liberal (in the classical sense of the word) elite on both sides and the generations that grew up just after the war and a few decades after, the political power of the evangelist right and the pro Israeli lobbies like AIPAC.
Millennials and GenZ though seem to have a much more negative opinion of Israel, even amongst Republicans. When people of this age group come to positions of power in the next few decades one might wonder if the reflexive support for Israel amongst the US elite will remain. Would the Democrats especially be able to ignore the opinions of a large majority of their voters? It is true that in US politics influential groups and lobbies can hold sway over policies that are unpopular to the broader masses, like the NRA as another prominent example, but there are limits to the extent.
TrumpCentrist
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Agreed. Trump is being an idiot by tying himself so closely with the State of Israel. It's a really bad move that was only surpassed by Biden declaring his undying support for Israel while they cluster-bombed children.Revisiting this topic after a year. Support for Israel has declined amongst US adults after almost 2 years of war.
How Americans view Israel and the Israel-Hamas war at the start of Trump’s second term
A slight majority of Americans (54%) say the Israel-Hamas war is either very or somewhat important to them personally.
A significant majority of Democrats now have a negative view of Israel, support for Israel has declined amongst Republicans too. There are influential voices on the right, Tucker Carlson comes to mind who openly question the level of US support for Israel.
In the short term it still won't lead to any changes in policy, and definitely not in the Trump administration.
In the longer term, it needs to be seen. I think the near unconditional support of Israel by successive US Governments comes from a combination of factors, cold war politics, sympathy for jews after the holocaust in the liberal (in the classical sense of the word) elite on both sides and the generations that grew up just after the war and a few decades after, the political power of the evangelist right and the pro Israeli lobbies like AIPAC.
Millennials and GenZ though seem to have a much more negative opinion of Israel, even amongst Republicans. When people of this age group come to positions of power in the next few decades one might wonder if the reflexive support for Israel amongst the US elite will remain. Would the Democrats especially be able to ignore the opinions of a large majority of their voters? It is true that in US politics influential groups and lobbies can hold sway over policies that are unpopular to the broader masses, like the NRA as another prominent example, but there are limits to the extent.
tbm3fan
Defense Professional
I gave up on Israel long ago. Got tired of their holier than thou attitude. Granted 1200 Israelis killed that October is bad but killing 30,000+ Gazans, pretty much indiscriminately, is nothing to be concerned about. Forget about the far right who truly would love to eliminate all of them. What does Holocaust mean anymore? Oh look, people are gathering at the cafe for coffee, and one might be Hamas, so let's hit it with a bomb and kill dozen or so innocents. Holocaust my ass. It is getting old. Countering Iran is fine but it doesn't give them a free pass to abuse others as they like.Revisiting this topic after a year. Support for Israel has declined amongst US adults after almost 2 years of war.
How Americans view Israel and the Israel-Hamas war at the start of Trump’s second term
A slight majority of Americans (54%) say the Israel-Hamas war is either very or somewhat important to them personally.
A significant majority of Democrats now have a negative view of Israel, support for Israel has declined amongst Republicans too. There are influential voices on the right, Tucker Carlson comes to mind who openly question the level of US support for Israel.
In the short term it still won't lead to any changes in policy, and definitely not in the Trump administration.
In the longer term, it needs to be seen. I think the near unconditional support of Israel by successive US Governments comes from a combination of factors, cold war politics, sympathy for jews after the holocaust in the liberal (in the classical sense of the word) elite on both sides and the generations that grew up just after the war and a few decades after, the political power of the evangelist right and the pro Israeli lobbies like AIPAC.
Millennials and GenZ though seem to have a much more negative opinion of Israel, even amongst Republicans. When people of this age group come to positions of power in the next few decades one might wonder if the reflexive support for Israel amongst the US elite will remain. Would the Democrats especially be able to ignore the opinions of a large majority of their voters? It is true that in US politics influential groups and lobbies can hold sway over policies that are unpopular to the broader masses, like the NRA as another prominent example, but there are limits to the extent.
The power imbalance between Israel and the Palestininans and Arab States started shifting decades ago. In the 60s and 70s Israel was arguably fighting for its very existence. Since the end of the cold war? That table has well and truly turned! Palestinians have virtually zero chance of threatening Israel in any meaningful way and Iran is (or rather was) the last man standing in terms of active military support for the Palestinian 'cause'. Today? Israel demonstrably holds all the cards. - but it's still playing the martyr card as often as it can.
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I have resisted believing the claims by the left that Israel is following a policy of Genocide in Gaza. Mostly because I believe the term 'Genocide' is misused far too much in our current political discourse by every group that claims a grievance, a most recent example being Trump accusing the South Africa President of a white genocide.
However, this author made a persuasive case though I not entirely convinced.
Death and Exile: An Israeli Genocide in Gaza
An analysis of intent and action in the Israeli war in Gaza
mazmhussain.substack.com
The most obvious objection would be that Israel does not deliberately seek out and murder Palestinians civilians indiscriminately in a manner associated with genocidal groups like the Nazis or ISIS. It is still a Western army following a code of conduct, which may seem callous and disregarding of Palestinian life, is still within norms followed by most Western militaries.
However, this author makes the important point that even in events that are considered a genocide in mainstream discourse like the Holocaust or the Armenian Genocide, a large percentage of the victims are not deliberately murdered but instead die of deprivation, starvation and disease. In that regard an argument might be made that certain elements of the Israeli right do seek to drive the Palestinians out of Gaza, using hunger, terror and deprivation; from their homes and making them crowd in small areas where disease might be rampant, leading to deaths in the hundreds of thousands.
The reason I am still not convinced that the goals of the Israeli government are genocidal in nature are firstly that these many Palestinian deaths has not happened yet, the reports of famine turned out to be exaggerated, while excess deaths are happening they are lower in number, aid is still flowing. While Netanyahu depends on the far right for the survival of his Government, his alignment with some of their goals is more opportunistic rather out of a sincere belief in their goals. And due to the pragmatism he has shown throughout his long career, he will probably reverse these policies if the Palestinians start dying in much higher numbers from starvation or disease.
However, inspite of that Israeli actions in recent years have gone far beyond what can reasonably be defended by any fair minded person who believes in the liberal ideals of the Western tradition, the current Israeli Government is led by hard right, some of whose more extreme members do want to drive Palestinians out of Gaza through extreme means including starvation if necessary, whose values have little in common with most liberals in the West.
It's a deal largely of the Arab states are so dependent on American defense...which just so happens to be Israel's main benefactor that means they have zero defense as it comes to Israel. The states that are not in the U.S. defense club coincides with who has had a rough last 2 years. Observe one of Israel's gripes with the new Syrian government is they want the Turks - who have a real military unlike every non-Israeli state in the Middle East - to be kicked out. (Turkey also being a NATO state which means any hypothetical Israeli attack on them becomes politically touchy.)
To me it's just a symbol of the post-World War II world is dead and we're into something new. I'm not sure what the new world is and I don't think anyone really does. There's tending to be more acknowledgement that international law is pretty much a dead concept because it's so unenforceable. Russia really started along this path challenging the world order with Ukraine but Israel drove a bulldozer through it while thumbing its nose at its main benefactor for a year humiliating Biden's rules-based international order worldview. My concern is more while people in the MAGA mindset and President Trump don't really care for multilateral international institutions (not without cause in some areas in my opinion), what's it going to look like when a state or country blows things up further in a country or region where we want norms to stay where they are? India-Pakistan is an example and Trump declared peace unilaterally, probably at a Pakistani request and the Indians were infuriated by that if you've read the follow-up news on that conflict. China though for example can invade any minor country off its coastline or in southeast Asia and when Trump tells them to stop, Xi can respond not without reason "we hold all the cards". (I'm very skeptical of U.S. navy presence and performance in any hot South China Sea conflict under this President, especially considering the current state of U.S. naval shipbuilding.)I have resisted believing the claims by the left that Israel is following a policy of Genocide in Gaza. Mostly because I believe the term 'Genocide' is misused far too much in our current political discourse by every group that claims a grievance, a most recent example being Trump accusing the South Africa President of a white genocide.
However, this author made a persuasive case though I not entirely convinced.
Death and Exile: An Israeli Genocide in Gaza
An analysis of intent and action in the Israeli war in Gaza
The most obvious objection would be that Israel does not deliberately seek out and murder Palestinians civilians indiscriminately in a manner associated with genocidal groups like the Nazis or ISIS. It is still a Western army following a code of conduct, which may seem callous and disregarding of Palestinian life, is still within norms followed by most Western militaries.
However, this author makes the important point that even in events that are considered a genocide in mainstream discourse like the Holocaust or the Armenian Genocide, a large percentage of the victims are not deliberately murdered but instead die of deprivation, starvation and disease. In that regard an argument might be made that certain elements of the Israeli right do seek to drive the Palestinians out of Gaza, using hunger, terror and deprivation; from their homes and making them crowd in small areas where disease might be rampant, leading to deaths in the hundreds of thousands.
The reason I am still not convinced that the goals of the Israeli government are genocidal in nature are firstly that these many Palestinian deaths has not happened yet, the reports of famine turned out to be exaggerated, while excess deaths are happening they are lower in number, aid is still flowing. While Netanyahu depends on the far right for the survival of his Government, his alignment with some of their goals is more opportunistic rather out of a sincere belief in their goals. And due to the pragmatism he has shown throughout his long career, he will probably reverse these policies if the Palestinians start dying in much higher numbers from starvation or disease.
However, inspite of that Israeli actions in recent years have gone far beyond what can reasonably be defended by any fair minded person who believes in the liberal ideals of the Western tradition, the current Israeli Government is led by hard right, some of whose more extreme members do want to drive Palestinians out of Gaza through extreme means including starvation if necessary, whose values have little in common with most liberals in the West.
I don't think we'll really know how much the world has changed until we get a President that's not Trump, because whoever it is, their exercise of power and influence is going to be weaker, be it Vance or another Republican or a Democrat. And at that point, other countries are going to hard bargain us the way they've been treated, because the norms have been blown up. There's also bits of how the world is changing that are outside of all this and represent natural geopolitical change, e.g. the UK is clearly in systemic decline, India are becoming a more serious country and international power.
The Israelis are in final solution mindset. Yes, I understand the historical connotations of that term, but they're the Romans, Gaza is Carthage, and this is the Third Punic War, they want to remove the potential of there being any future conflict from that area. This is all going on, and no one is doing anything about it. That's part of why the post-World War II world is dead.
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Revisiting this topic after a year. Support for Israel has declined amongst US adults after almost 2 years of war.
How Americans view Israel and the Israel-Hamas war at the start of Trump’s second term
A slight majority of Americans (54%) say the Israel-Hamas war is either very or somewhat important to them personally.
A significant majority of Democrats now have a negative view of Israel, support for Israel has declined amongst Republicans too. There are influential voices on the right, Tucker Carlson comes to mind who openly question the level of US support for Israel.
In the short term it still won't lead to any changes in policy, and definitely not in the Trump administration.
In the longer term, it needs to be seen. I think the near unconditional support of Israel by successive US Governments comes from a combination of factors, cold war politics, sympathy for jews after the holocaust in the liberal (in the classical sense of the word) elite on both sides and the generations that grew up just after the war and a few decades after, the political power of the evangelist right and the pro Israeli lobbies like AIPAC.
Millennials and GenZ though seem to have a much more negative opinion of Israel, even amongst Republicans. When people of this age group come to positions of power in the next few decades one might wonder if the reflexive support for Israel amongst the US elite will remain. Would the Democrats especially be able to ignore the opinions of a large majority of their voters? It is true that in US politics influential groups and lobbies can hold sway over policies that are unpopular to the broader masses, like the NRA as another prominent example, but there are limits to the extent.
OK, so you dug up a year old post where I showed that your views lacked historical perspective in order to tell me that one day, at some undetermined point in the future, you will eventually be right. Well that was really worth the effort.
You'll have to forgive me if this post sounds both irritated & hastily composed, but I'm already spending more time on this than it is worth.
In the intervening period of time one of the most pro-Israel governments in US history has been elected and joined an Israeli military action to bomb Iran's nuclear program while not even pretending to attempt to limit Israeli killing in Gaza; Israel & the Gulf states have quietly begun to return to the path of co-operation they were on before the October 7 attacks; and Israel has occupied part of Syria with zero pushback. But hey, some people in the US protests & Tucker Carlson said some shit. So did Candace Owens if we are keeping score in the right wing grifterverse.
So, there is every chance that some time before 'the next few decades' arrive Israel will have crushed Hamas, made (sort of) friends with some major Arab states and shown just how weak & friendless its major enemy is. Fuck me, if things keep going this badly for the Israelis they will actually have a land border with Iran & Turkey by the time all those millenials & Gen Xers come to power.
Here is the thing about predicting 'the next few decades' in almost any context, let alone an internet chat forum - it is a wank. You can basically say anything and claim you'll be right one day fairly confident that you'll never be held to account. Its fine to do it for fun, but it makes no serious or meaningful point.
Lets imagine you were playing this game back in the 80s & early 90s, when blatantly anti-Jewish figures like Jesse jackson & Pat Buchanan mounted Presidential runs for both parties, and when a Republican administration considered sanctions against Israel for its invasion of Lebanon. What would the 'next few decades' prediction look like? I bet it wouldn't look like both major parties effectively being all in on support for Israel and effectively turning a blind eye to a slaughter that has killed almost 60,000 mainly civilians in under 2 years.
Maybe you will be right. Maybe younger voters from today will eventually push change in both major parties & Israel will lose US support. Or, maybe, once the daily footage of dying civilians is off TV & the possibility of the US getting more involved in a war is over, not enough of people will care enough about doing that to make much of a difference. Or maybe a couple of dozen other things that I can't be arsed thinking up. So congratulations, you are right....unless you aren't.
As John Maynard Keynes once pointed out: "The long run is a misleading guide to current events. In the long run we are all dead". Smart bloke Keynes.
Meant no offense, but for many Geo political events or changes, significant changes happen over the longer term.
All we can do is analyze events and forces that may shape those changes, how they are influencing events today, thats what we do on forums like this everyday, what makes it interesting. While changes in policy and actual events in the ground might take too long into the future to meaningfully predict, on this issue, the deterioration of Israel's standing and influence in the Democratic party at least is something real that is happening at the very moment which the leadership will not be able to ignore for too much longer. The victory of the pro Palestinian candidate in the New York Mayoral election is already an example.
Yes, Israel might be at the peak of its power and its influence in the current Administration and Congress might seem as secure as ever, but I think its actual position is weaker than it seems and even degrading more as revulsion at its actions grows among more and more people. If you think my prediction was too vague, here is a more near term one. If there is a Democratic administration back in place in 2028, especially from the left wing of the party (the Bernie/AOC wing or maybe a slightly more moderate figure), I think we would see a more adversarial or atleast a neutral relationship between the US and Israel with even the billions in aid provided up for contest.
It might seem far fetched right now, but given another 3 years of Trumpian chaos and perhaps economic calamity, even a left wing Democrat administration might seem a saner option.
As to revisiting this topic after more than a year, I think facts have changed to an extent to warrant another analysis. Israel's response has been far harsher and cruel than we might have anticipated back then and has gone on much longer than thought perhaps. Opinion polls show a growing majority of Democrats having negative views of Israel. Back then it may have seemed far fetched for even a Democratic administration to question the relationship with Israel as Biden's lack of wavering of support to Israel even as its action grew harsher shows. But I don't think that is the case anymore after 2028 and beyond.
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One more thing I want to address but can no longer edit the original reply.
I didn't make any predictions about events on the ground in the middle east. Yes Israel could have borders till Iran or the Arabs might finally get their stuff together to make a meaningful challenge to Israel, who knows what might happen in decades when talking about an entire region.
I was only talking about explaining the support and backing that Israel has from the United States, which appears somewhat unique, something not even enjoyed by other close allies like the UK or Australia that have fought and bled with the US in multiple wars. There are a range of explanations for this from the conspiracy theorists to the ones who insist that its natural based on the shared ideals and values of both countries; which might get harder to explain after 60,000 deaths and counting.
I think its more likely explained by somewhat unique historical and political circumstances going back several decades which probably will not endure that much longer in the future, even if we are talking about a simple reversion to the mean, of Israel being treated like any other American friend or ally.
I didn't make any predictions about events on the ground in the middle east. Yes Israel could have borders till Iran or the Arabs might finally get their stuff together to make a meaningful challenge to Israel, who knows what might happen in decades when talking about an entire region.
I was only talking about explaining the support and backing that Israel has from the United States, which appears somewhat unique, something not even enjoyed by other close allies like the UK or Australia that have fought and bled with the US in multiple wars. There are a range of explanations for this from the conspiracy theorists to the ones who insist that its natural based on the shared ideals and values of both countries; which might get harder to explain after 60,000 deaths and counting.
I think its more likely explained by somewhat unique historical and political circumstances going back several decades which probably will not endure that much longer in the future, even if we are talking about a simple reversion to the mean, of Israel being treated like any other American friend or ally.
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Officer of Engineers
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Are you kidding me? Two World Wars and a getting ready for a Third World War and you think Israel got the lion share of support over the Allies?
Don't you think Zelensky looks at what we did to Iran after Israel chose to wage war as opposed to having it forced upon them and it makes him furious privately? Hell, it would to me if I was him.
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Officer of Engineers
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Biden and Trump determined that Zelensky ain't worth WWIII.
No other ally gets billions of free money. Ok, perhaps they don't need it like Israel, but still. What I know from reading history, the US did not support its allies much when they tried to hang on to their colonial empires and even encouraged dissolution. Like during the Suez crisis the US came down on the UK and France hard, humiliating them on the International stage.
I get your point though that their survival is not at risk the way Israel's might be and the US might go much further to protect UK or Canada if they faced a genuine threat, but I am not sure that the Trump administration would
Israel has gotten consistent support while it has engaged in conduct that sometimes goes against the rules based international order, that the US claims to uphold. Even when it inflicted immense suffering and damage in Gaza, worse than what Russia has done to Ukraine in many respects.
Officer of Engineers
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WWII Lend-Lease puts the aide to Israel to shame. Plus over a million casualties. Israel ain't even close to this level of aide.
Who would nuke Ottawa over Washington DC? Even if someone did, it's an automatic DEFCON 2, if not DEFCON 1, no matter what Trump decides.
And when the US goes DEFCON 2, so goes the entire NATO Alliance.
I didn't take offence, I just couldn't see the point of dragging up an old post of mine to make some prognostications on things that may or may not happen when most of us are dead. I still don't. You could just have done that without me.
Maybe you will be correct, maybe not. If you think some polling data 'proves' that you wil lbe then I'm happy for you. Alteratively just toss a coin, it will probably have a better success rate than the overwhelming percentage of predictions about events decades hence.
Point taken, the comment could have stood on its own.
Article in the New York Times related to recent comments in the thread.
As the article mentions the shift in Democrat's attitude to Israel has changed quite dramatically over 10 years from about +30 in favor to about +30 who have a negative opinion.
However, inspite of this ,while its possible, the chance of a Democratic regime in 2028 turning decisively against Israel is low. My earlier comment on this thread was probably motivated reasoning. Inspite of negative feelings towards Israel, most American voters probably don't care enough about the issue to make it a deciding factor in their vote. And while a Democrat President in 2028, unlike Obama, could take a harder line against Netanyahu or whichever Israeli leader without suffering for it electorally, institutional forces, both within the Democratic Party and the country would probably be strong enough to prevent any decisive action like cutting off aid, I don't see such a measure passing through the US Senate.
I think they would make the same determination for the Baltic states to be fair, and where does that leave us? Are we making the same determination for Taiwan? Serious question at the moment because I have my doubts.
You have to wait for them to get back into power to see how it filters out. Democrats I think are making the choice to go right some. This is obviously all up in the air simply because there's no such thing as a centralized party that can make those kinds of decisions, it's more ad hoc. While they don't care for Trump of course, I think there's lots of Democratic politicians that more appreciate Trump's methods and want a Democratic President to more act like Trump is acting to get things done for their political priorities.
Israel are flying high now, we'll see how it goes in the future. I imagine the rich northeastern-based Israel-focused lobbies who for obvious reasons cannot really be Republicans electorally on a regional level are going to do all they can to push the Democratic Party back right on this regard, but I think Netanyahu and his allies are too far gone for a Democratic President to back them. You'd probably need a new Prime Minister that's left of Likud to have an Israel-Democratic Party U.S. President warming of ties.
Re Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, does anyone know if this is all or mostly true? It doesn't surprise me in a sense if it all got outsourced to some nondescript contractor. Israeli and American governments can then claim ignorance for anything that occurs and blame the contractor. On another front, the "Haitian government" have "hired" Erik Prince's company to kill gangsters in that country.
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True ofcourse, but fascism was close to an existential threat for the US and its allies, and defeating Nazi Germany and its allies was an imperative for the US, by any means necessary. And it was over 80 years ago. I think a more relevant and more recent example is that the US did not back its allies during the liquidation of their colonial empires, even when they occasionally fought wars to hang on to their possessions. Even white South Africa (a much more morally reprehensible regime than Israel, atleast prior to Gaza, and not a US ally, but bringing the example as it was an Anglo sphere country of sorts) was forced to give way to majority rule.
I can understand the US supporting Israel as an ally whose survival may not be as secure as other other US allies, which inspite of its strength is a tiny country surrounded by enemies. But its questionable if this unconditional backing for Israel, even through some of its worst conduct, serves American interests in the middle east over the medium to long term. Infact, the hypocrisy of the US is laid bare when lecturing Russia and China on their authoritarian actions or aggression, while backing a regime that has unleashed suffering on a scale far greater than Russia in Ukraine, coming near to some of the worst catastrophes suffered by humanity in recent decades in sub saharan Africa.
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