On point 4? Any US Administration is likely to be hamstrung/impotent when it comes to intervening/blocking direct action by Israel due to the influence of the Jewish lobby in the US. This is not to say I think it's some kind of all powerful, malevolent force there. Just that its well funded, well organized, well connected and very experienced when it comes to influencing politics in DC since it's had decades of practice at doing what it does. Hell it's arguably the most effective lobbying group in the US, beating even big oil for the range and extent of it's reach. And this is a task made easier by the narrow gap in the polls between both sides of US politics. It can effectively sway decision making in Washington if it succeeds in influencing even a relatively small number of members in the Congress and the Senate.
2023 Israeli-Gazan War
- Thread starter Ironduke
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On point 4? Any US Administration is likely to be hamstrung/impotent when it comes to intervening/blocking direct action by Israel due to the influence of the Jewish lobby in the US. This is not to say I think it's some kind of all powerful, malevolent force there. Just that its well funded, well organized, well connected and very experienced when it comes to influencing politics in DC since it's had decades of practice at doing what it does. Hell it's arguably the most effective lobbying group in the US, beating even big oil for the range and extent of it's reach. And this is a task made easier by the narrow gap in the polls between both sides of US politics. It can effectively sway decision making in Washington if it succeeds in influencing even a relatively small number of members in the Congress and the Senate.
So we have a foreign state via their proxies controlling our democratic process that gives them millions of dollars in aid including military paid for by American taxpayers is what you're saying?
Can you see how that makes a citizen cynical? Menendez was convicted of being bought by Egyptian and Qatari interests. Cuellar is under suspicion by the Feds of working for the Azerbaijanis. The Mayor of New York City Eric Adams is under indictment for helping out the Turks. A Cabinet Undersecretary just got outted for being a Chinese spy. Those are all small potatoes compared to this. How many people in Congress are serving a foreign state as well as our state, all under the guise of diaspora campaign donations? How about the State Department? The Defense Department? Our intelligence agencies?
The Arabs are hardly good people here by and large. But we're getting played by our ally that for the past year have not been acting like an ally. This is a full fledged wider war at this point, Israel are striking locations in 3 separate sovereign countries not counting Gaza, and we're getting drawn into a war we don't want to be in because American diplomacy has largely failed. Meanwhile no one says sh*t because they don't want to help Trump win by pointing out Biden, Blinken, Sullivan have completely failed on this, Biden's reduced mental state that led to the Democrats dumping him from the ticket hardly helping matters, and what would President Harris do differently from Biden in regards to the Middle East? I have no effing idea.
I do have a notion of one if not both major wars going on in the world will change somehow post-election, but it's kind of unsettling that thousands of people every day are dying just due to waiting on our election result seeing how that changes the status quo. But the post-World War II Era of Geopolitics that Biden was fighting so hard to keep going is finally over in my opinion. Trump wants nothing to deal with it and I don't think Harris has any real love or desire to fight for it how Biden has.
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Sort of/in a way. As I understand it the lobby is a domestic institution with roots set deep in the post WW2 Jewish diaspora albeit Jewish immigration started long before that and Jews have played an important role in the development of America from very early on. So when I say the American Jewish Lobby I really mean it's the American Jewish lobby. The 'problem' is that for obvious reasons it has very close ties with Israel and the Israeli political establishment. It's a common theme in lots of countries with large immigrant populations. Italians, Greeks Irish, Chinese etc all often retain links to the homeland. And to a greater or lesser extent from time to time various foreign governments try to use those links to their advantage. The Jewish Lobby? IMO Has simply mastered the art.
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tbm3fan
Defense Professional
That is correct and with Netanyahu's popularity now at a high point he is in a position not to give a damn what the U.S. thinks. Notice also that any talk about hostages has disappeared despite around 94, give or take, still held. Netanyahu is in the cat bird seat right now and screw everyone else. He probably knows Iran doesn't want to war with him even when he hits back. Hezbollah doesn't want to war with him either due to the cost to them. He has the upper hand at this time...
Yeah, that is all a crime unless they register as Foreign Agents. Foreign Agents Registration Act - Wikipedia
And I'm pretty confident if investigate journalists dug into it with all these various diaspora organizations funneling money into politics from multiple countries to both parties there's massive money laundering going on, because non-U.S. citizens are barred from donating directly into politics.
tbm3fan
Defense Professional
Well I think we can all conclude any kind of a cease fire is off the table now. Hezbollah, Iran's forward based proxy, has been hurt badly. The Lincoln is being extended in the region and Truman is rushing over to join. Iran made a mistake with that missile barrage. The next tit for tat is going to be on a magnitude much higher than "you hit me I hit you twice as hard." The question being what is Iran going to lose?
It's not that simple. Your not a 'foreign agent' for example if your a Chinese/American, (born in the US) who imports machinery from China and whose bottom line is going to be badly impacted if the US decides to raise tariffs on Chinese goods appreciably and your response is to lobby against that increase. Does it matter if the Chinese Government is in favor of what your doing? No. Does it matter if the Chinese Government pays you to do it? Yes.
Same with American's of Jewish decent who lobby for continued military support for Israel. Especially since they can count on their efforts being amplified by the Christian fundamentalist lobby who quite frankly they seem to be adept at playing like a cheap violin.
You don't have to be paid to be a foreign agent. It does help clear some of the ambiguity obviously.
It's illustrative I feel of how American law works. We have a law. Do we want to enforce in your case? It depends on if we like you or not and how rich you are. At the top level we are a corrupt country, states like Israel have figured out how to exploit that to serve them, including much less virtuous states than Israel.
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Israel has launched its retaliatory strike against Iran
https://www.twz.com/news-features/israels-retaliation-strikes-on-iran-have-begun
https://www.twz.com/news-features/israels-retaliation-strikes-on-iran-have-begun
Go back a year & Netanyahu looked like a man on borrowed time. He had presided over the worst Israeli intelligence failure in (exactly) 50 years and the largest single day death toll of Jews since the holocaust. In the US he had a President who, while supportive of Israel, would happily have seen him removed from office & replaced by someone more amenable to peace negotiations. He was basically hanging on.
How things have changed. He may now be the most significant & transformative Israeli leader since its early days. Hezbollah has been seriously weakened. The Assads are gone along with their Russian backers. Iran's regional position has been seriously weakened. Hamas has been wrecked and will struggle to regain the power & lattitude for action it did before. And he has a US President who has made it clear that he isn't much fussed how Netanyahu deals with Gaza - up to & including mass deportations.
He could still stuff it all up, but for now he is in a position of strength unimaginable a year ago. He is going to be setting the terms by which any Palestinian hopes for....well anything much...advance. Provided he doesn't go full Milosevic Arab nations will grudgingly deal with him. What a difference a year can make.
How things have changed. He may now be the most significant & transformative Israeli leader since its early days. Hezbollah has been seriously weakened. The Assads are gone along with their Russian backers. Iran's regional position has been seriously weakened. Hamas has been wrecked and will struggle to regain the power & lattitude for action it did before. And he has a US President who has made it clear that he isn't much fussed how Netanyahu deals with Gaza - up to & including mass deportations.
He could still stuff it all up, but for now he is in a position of strength unimaginable a year ago. He is going to be setting the terms by which any Palestinian hopes for....well anything much...advance. Provided he doesn't go full Milosevic Arab nations will grudgingly deal with him. What a difference a year can make.
Netanyahu's term in office still has to end whether he likes it or not. After that? He needs to win office again. If he doesn't? He faces the same criminal charges that have been hanging over has head these past few years whether he likes it or not. And those charges haven't gone away no matter how how he's tried to avoid them. If he ties to stage some kind of constitutional 'Putsch'? All I can say is 'good luck'? Because (based on al the media reports I've seen these past few years) secular Israeli's have just about had enough of carrying the Orthodox religious Jews on their economic backs.
The hard truth is that whether Netanyahu stays in power after the next election or not? The Israeli State's current path is economically unsustainable and as such? It's destined to fail.
Predicting Netanyahu's demise is as popular as it is unsuccessful. He looked down & out many times & proved remarkably resilient. Lets see how he goes.
As for Israel 'failing', I wouldn't be putting money on that either. Again, has shown an impressive ability to adapt and survive. Far more so than its neighbours.
You might be right about Netanyahu but my point was that the charges haven't gone away and if he had the ability to make that happen? He would have done so long ago. Beyond that and to clarify I wasn't predicting the 'failure' of the Israeli State, I simply noted that secular Israelis appear to have had enough of doing all the 'heavy lifting' for the conservative orthodox section of the population.
The High Court has already ruled that ultra orthodox Jews are no longer exempt from military service, that hasn't caused the State to fall over. So I doubt passing laws phasing out financial support for them will either. In fact probably the opposite, not having to pay for all Ultra Orthodox Jews to study religion and support their families at the same time? Is only going to improve the State's bottom line. God knows the current situation isn't financially sustainable for demographic reasons. So no, I wasn't anticipating the State of Israel 'failing' any time soon and if what I predicted actually happens? It would actually be in a sounder financial position than it is currently.
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Gaza won't be 'emptied' in its entirety, but parts of it will most definitely be cleared of people and turned into 'security zones'. That was always going to happen anyway to an extent, but had Biden won there would have been at least some pushback to limit how much land was taken & where. Trump won't care. Gaza is going to be split up into a series of walled off areas surrounded & constantly monitored by Israeli security forces. Everything that goes in & comes out wil lbe monitored to a greater degree than ever before. Rebuilding will be slow & life will be even less pleasant that it was before.
Israel would probably have been better off pursing a strategy of occupying the 12 klick border zone shared by Egypt and Gaza long ago together with a zone a couple of klicks deep back into Gaza itself. Then fortifying it both upwards and downwards as far as they can go. Hamas would be cut of at knees financially and militarily because the smuggling tunnels that run under that border are and were their main source of revenue and armaments. No need to bomb the strip to dust. Just embargo the shit out of the place with only food an medicine getting in..
Yes, in theory that would have been a good idea. That is what will be happening now plus a few more security zones cutting through the strip. Gaza is going to be sewn up pretty tight.
Kind of amazed how this war has seemingly died for interest as far as resolution and what's going on is going on. There's people upset with it of course but outside of the activist class I feel a giant apathy publicly. Gaming this out I feel like the Palestinian population will be decimated in the region deliberately because it's what the Israeli government want to do and no one is actively stopping the Israelis from doing it, which has historical undertones.
So much for Day 1 the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts would stop, but that was always bluster anyway.
In the past day, Ynet reported "Netanyahu has ordered the Israeli Air Force to prepare for unilateral strikes against Iran, without the support of the United States". Israeli Channel 12 (Netanyahu mouthpiece) says "Trump has ordered the U.S. military to halt any further cooperation with Israel on potential strikes against Iran".
So much for Day 1 the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts would stop, but that was always bluster anyway.
In the past day, Ynet reported "Netanyahu has ordered the Israeli Air Force to prepare for unilateral strikes against Iran, without the support of the United States". Israeli Channel 12 (Netanyahu mouthpiece) says "Trump has ordered the U.S. military to halt any further cooperation with Israel on potential strikes against Iran".
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TrumpCentrist
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