2022-2026 Russo-Ukrainian War

No, I posted the screenshot to mock the Russians, and to save it for posterity before the article gets slipped down the memory hole.

Nov 20 the Russians claimed to have completely liberated Kupiansk and surrounded the Ukrainians on the left bank of the Oskil. The day before Ukraine took all of Russia's gains in the city in one fell swoop, Putin was even offering to personally take journalists on tours of the "liberated" city.

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William Spaniel just released a short video on the battle giving some background and putting everything in context as he usually does.

 
jlvfr said:
And there goes another russian navy boat, this time the Kilo class Varshavyanka. First sub kill by a drone, I think?

The future of inshore ships does seem bleak... keep your ships afloat and away from shore, or else...
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Hmmm, perhaps! I note from the photos that have been released that there were multiple Russian naval vessels docked in port at the time the submarine was hit. Some of them appeared to be major (expensive) surface assets. Yet the submarine was the only asset hit and subs by their nature are particularly vulnerable to even relativity small explosive payloads given the fact that a direct hit threatens the integrity of their pressure hulls. Basically? The mere fact an attack was pressed home renders the sub unusable until it's been dry docked and subjected to comprehensive inspection & repair even if the damage appears at first sight to be minimal.

IMO as a layman? Subs and aircraft would seem share a similar vulnerability in that even minor structural damage potentially renders them more or less non operational for fear of a sudden critical failure pending comprehensive (and expensive) inspection and testing protocols prior to being cleared for active duty. And of course if I had my choice of targets in that port? A Kilo Class submarine would probably be way down on my list of given it's replacement cost and relative utility to Russia in the current war.

So while its good for propaganda purposes? I'm not sure this strike actually shifts the 'victory' needle much, if anything in Ukraine's favor. The fact it was the only vessel struck in this attack and that for it's size was technically one of the most vulnerable? Seems to indicate to me that Ukraine for whatever reason couldn't bring a lot of firepower into play for this particular operation.
 
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Monash said:
Seems to me to indicate that Ukraine for whatever reason couldn't bring a lot of firepower into play to this particular operation.
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I can believe that. I think they went for the ship that posed the greatest threat. A Kilo capable of firing cruise missiles while sailing around underwater would certainly class as that.
 
jlvfr said:
I can believe that. I think they went for the ship that posed the greatest threat. A Kilo capable of firing cruise missiles while sailing around underwater would certainly class as that.
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Maybe but sub launched missiles, indeed naval missile systems as a whole seem to have more or less faded as a significant threat to Ukraine after the first 12 months or so of the war. Oh they still get launched from time to time now but from memory not often. Basically, in this war? There isn't anything they can do that can't be done by land and air launched systems more cheaply/with far less manpower. These last say two years? Russia's navy has spent it's time largely corralled in the eastern end of the Black Sea except for the odd minor sortie.
 
Ukraine strikes another shadow fleet tanker, this time in the Mediterranean, with aerial drones. The ship is the Oman-flagged Qendil, returning from India where it had delivered a load of oil from Novorossiysk. The ship has changed its flag of registry twelve times since 2023. From marine tracking data, it looks as though the ship was en route to the Baltic, possibly Ust-Luga or nearby, now diverting to Aligaga, Izmir Province, Turkey.

www.twz.com

Ukraine Strikes Russia-Linked Tanker In The Mediterranean With ‘Bomber Drone’

The Ukrainian drone attack on the tanker, part of the Russian shadow fleet, is the first one of its kind outside of the Black Sea. The Ukrainian drone attack on the Oman-flagged tanker, part of the Russian shadow fleet, is the first one of its kind outside of the Black Sea.
www.twz.com www.twz.com

MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic

MarineTraffic Live Ships Map. Discover information and vessel positions for vessels around the world. Search the MarineTraffic ships database of more than 550000 active and decommissioned vessels. Search for popular ships globally. Find locations of ports and ships using the near Real Time ships...
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QENDIL, Crude Oil Tanker - Details and current position - IMO 9310525 - VesselFinder

Vessel QENDIL (IMO 9310525, MMSI 461000286) is a Crude Oil Tanker built in 2006 and currently sailing under the flag of Oman.
www.vesselfinder.com www.vesselfinder.com



https://twitter.com/x/status/2002036004123709842
 

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William Spaniel did an interesting update on this attack primarily looking at why this could turn out be a decisive moment in the war. Basically? His argument is that if reports are true and Ukraine took out the tanker with an airborne drone then considering where the attack occurred & due to range limitations it was possible one or more of the NATO member nations that border the Med might have looked the other way while a Uki drone violated their airspace. If true this would mean the Mediterranean is now a live target zone for Russia tankers and there's nothing Russia can do about it.

If the above is true then there is a secondary impact which he notes is even worse for Russia. If Ukraine can now regularly interdict tankers in the Med it means they can no longer transit through the Suez Canal when delivering oil to India or China or returning from those countries empty. (He also notes that Ukraine seems to prefer targeting dry tankers on return journeys to avoid international criticism about environmental vandalism.) Russia's only option then is to take the much longer route around Cape Hope to Russian oil hubs in the Baltic, although even there if Poland (unofficially) gives permission for overflights they would be vulnerable unless escorted by the Russian navy. The net practical effect of the longer journey is an effective reduction in the total size of Russia's ghost tanker fleet of something like 37% because each ship now takes so much longer to complete one round trip. From Ukraine's perspective? This is just as effective as sinking the same number of vessels.

It would be nice to know if he is right about this. The only other option is that some NATO country/s are letting Ukraine transport drones though their territory to launch points outside the block. The new Syrian regime for example might be amenable to hosting such launches. After all it's not like they have any reason to be chummy with Putin and Syria is an ideal location for this kind of Op.
 
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As a forum reader and gamer, I tend to agree this could be a real “decisive moment” if the analysis holds up. The logistics angle is often underestimated, and stretching supply lines can be as damaging as direct losses. Thinking in systems like this feels familiar to strategy games, where It encourages learning about odds, probabilities, and risk management. I even see parallels when people analyse scenarios or markets via tools like premier bet rdc, weighing constraints and outcomes. If verified, this would quietly shift the balance without headline-grabbing battles.
 
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remgeros said:
As a forum reader and gamer, I tend to agree this could be a real “decisive moment” if the analysis holds up. The logistics angle is often underestimated, and stretching supply lines can be as damaging as direct losses.
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Welcome! If William Spaniel is correct in his analysis and at least some NATO members are turning a blind eye to Ukrainian drone movements? I think the proof will appear over the next couple of months. If the Ukrainians can repeat this success at least few more times during that period? The Mediterranean/Suez route will be effectively closed to Russia.
 
Officer of Engineers said:
I still can't see Kiev giving up the Donbas Line without equivalent Russian withdrawal.
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I assume they're at least trying to build secondary defensive lines being weak points in their lines already. That aside part of the deal could be to freeze everything in place until a new 'maginot line' is built along the agreed border on a strict/tight timeline.
 
I've just watched some video of an Ukranian drone taking out russian horse troops... a horse cavalry troop. I actually thought this was a fake, then double checked and it does look like russia is now using horse cavalry?! Is this a sign of how short they are on vehicles or something else?!
 
jlvfr said:
I've just watched some video of an Ukranian drone taking out russian horse troops... a horse cavalry troop. I actually thought this was a fake, then double checked and it does look like russia is now using horse cavalry?! Is this a sign of how short they are on vehicles or something else?!
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Yes, they are that short. They're using motorbikes, motorcycles, quad bikes, scooters, bicycles, you name it. They are very much short on all types of proper military vehicles, wheeled and tracked.

Was just watching a Professor Gerdes video on YT, he mentioned that on 11 Jan 2026, the current phase of the Russian war against Ukraine (dated from 24 Feb 2022), will have lasted longer than the entire "Great Patriotic War".
 
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