2022-2026 Russo-Ukrainian War

Monash said:
Yes I saw that article. But in any event given the absence of any action by Putin towards signing at least a temporary ceasefire? It's become pretty obvious now that Russia has no intention of signing on to a peace deal anytime soon.
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That wasn't why I posted. The point I was trying to get at was the Russian stupidity not to use a ceasefire to maneuver troops into place
 
Officer of Engineers said:
That wasn't why I posted. The point I was trying to get at was the Russian stupidity not to use a ceasefire to maneuver troops into place
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Any large scale pre-positioning efforts would probably be detected by NATO and/or Ukraine itself. Hell for that matter the Uki's would be tempted to do the same thing themselves! I can certainly see them using the breather to double down on their own defensive preparations. For that matter You' probably see a lot of earth being shifted and mine fields being laid by both sides.
 
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Monash said:
Any large scale pre-positioning efforts would probably be detected by NATO and/or Ukraine itself. Hell for that matter the Uki's would be tempted to do the same thing themselves! I can certainly see them putting using the breather to double down on their defensive on strengthening prepared defensive positions. You' probably see a lot of earth being shifted and mine fields being laid by both sides.
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Yes but the Russians could moved more in the ceasefire than the Ukrainians could! That's why the Ukrainians did not want the ceasefire!
 
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I presume remains will be recovered and examined to confirm the source of origin is in fact Russia. Assuming it was Russia as seems likely? I'm scratching my head over what the hell it was they thought they were going to achieve with this little stunt. Doing this consistently is just begging for Poland to do the same back which no-one want's (except perhaps Ukraine of course).
 
Never going to happen, but I think it's perfectly appropriate to intercept Russian missiles and drones while they're still over Ukrainian airspace. Since Russia clearly cannot control their aerial ordinance, just as a precaution to prevent their entry into NATO airspace.
 
Ironduke said:
Never going to happen, but I think it's perfectly appropriate to intercept Russian missiles and drones while they're still over Ukrainian airspace. Since Russia clearly cannot control their aerial ordinance, just as a precaution to prevent their entry into NATO airspace.
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That's one of the options William Spaniel outlined in his latest YouTube episode which covered NATO's possible options/responses to the drone incursion i.e. position NATO ground to air defense assets including Patriot batteries close to the Polish/Ukrainian border with orders to intercept any Russian drones that 'look like' they may be heading for Polish territory. If that means that about a quarter of Ukraine automatically gets free, additional air defense coverage by default? To bad so sad - for Russia. And if Ukraine (by coincidence of course) then chooses to strengthen it's domestic ground to air defense systems further east by moving assets over that part of the country? Ditto!
 
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Any thoughts on the theory that Russia did this to force NATO countries to retain air defense systems on their own territory, and as a result have less to be able or willing to give to Ukraine?
 
Monash said:
Yep, he and Perun are my 'go to' guys for Ukrainian war analysis.
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James Ker-Lindsay also has great videos on geopolitical analysis on the conflict and issues related/adjacent to it.
www.youtube.com

Prof James Ker-Lindsay

"...an authoritative voice...to help one make sense of a surprising amount of the international news." - E-International Relations (www.e-ir.info) Hello and welcome. My name is James Ker-Lindsay, and here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood. I...
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com

The Telegraph's Ukraine: The Latest is a great daily podcast to keep up to date on what's going on, gets uploaded to YouTube everyday.

I also watch Denys Davydov, Ukraine Matters, Combat Veteran Reacts, and Reporting from Ukraine. The first three are mostly hot take amateur coverage of daily events, but they're good to watch to know what's going on each day.
 
Ironduke said:
Any thoughts on the theory that Russia did this to force NATO countries to retain air defense systems on their own territory, and as a result have less to be able or willing to give to Ukraine?
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Not convinced. If anything, this might give NATO nations an excuse to provide air cover of some sort over parts of Western Ukraine, reducing Ukraine's air defence requirements.

It looks to me more like the sort of thing Russia (and sometimes NATO/US) did regularly during the Cold War & Putin revived in the last 10-15 years - probing the enemy to see what their responses are like. I'm sure Russia was carefully watching the response & takng notes.
 
Ironduke said:
Any thoughts on the theory that Russia did this to force NATO countries to retain air defense systems on their own territory, and as a result have less to be able or willing to give to Ukraine?
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In the first instance? It could be the case but I'd tend to say no with one key proviso. While that scenario might play out IMO a once off penetration of NATO airspace isn't going to have that effect, repeated incursions however could. The problem is that while Moscow can play this incident off as the result of Ukrainian jamming or whatever they can't do that with repeated, persistent incursions. That would be clear evidence that Russia's was deliberately intending to violate NATO airspace! Obviously that would not be good given the escalation in tensions that would result. But NATO would still the option of massing ground to air assets near the Ukrainian border as William Spaniel outlined.

In that scenario? Moscow's only option would be to either cease sending the drones into Poland or else double down and start sending drones into NATO airspace along axis other than the Polish border! That would stretch NATO's air defense capabilities and reduce assistance to Ukraine. But it would also cost Russia drones they could be using in Ukraine so Putin would have to be very confident of he had the numbers necessary for both ops. (Given how many he's using? Maybe he is that confident, who knows?) Would Putin want to escalate that far and risk direct conflict between NATO and Moscow? Again who knows. Certainly not me.
 
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Monash said:
In that scenario? Moscow's only option would be to either cease sending the drones into Poland or else double down and start sending drones into NATO airspace along axis other than the Polish border! That would stretch NATO's air defense capabilities and reduce assistance to Ukraine. But it would also cost Russia drones they could be using in Ukraine so Putin would have to be very confident of he had the numbers necessary for both ops. (Given how many he's using? Maybe he is that confident, who knows?) Would Putin want to escalate that far and risk direct conflict between NATO and Moscow? Again who knows. Certainly not me.
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The elephant in the room on all this is you have all the European states squarely against Moscow but likewise are scared sh*tless of fighting a hot war with them. This is my read on the latest on "Coalition of the Willing" talks. There's a group of states per Starmer and Macron that are willing to have peacekeeper troops stationed in Ukraine (albeit the details on all that as far as "who made hard commitments to do what" are being keep very quiet)...after hostilities end. Who is hostilities ending depending on? Well, Zelenskyy and Putin. Zelenskyy is not going to cease hostilities because they're getting invaded, that would mean surrender and accepting Russian terms as dictated to them. We then go back to Putin where based on what Starmer and Macron said, can control Western troops not being deployed into Ukraine by simply keeping the war going.

One person once asked Shashank Joshi on Twitter, defense analyst for the Economist, "why should Putin have any voice in post-war Ukraine". He responded "ask Trump". Well, if Ukraine's backers that are going to help enforce peace are only going to go after Russia has stopped shooting...Putin is by fact having control over post-war Ukraine because him continuing fighting will prevent their deployment. If you want to remove or lessen the leverage Putin has on what happens to post-war Ukraine, you deploy your troops now and if there's casualties, there's casualties and you fight back at an appropriate scale. Zelenskyy has tried to internationalize this war forever and if that occurred it'd be a large win for him, but does anyone think Putin does not know the rest of Europe's hesitations against open conflict and whether those countries' political support would collapse in the event of a hot war, and is not using that knowledge against them? Trump has clearly used our defensive posture vis a vis Europe as economic leverage to get what we want from them.

The whole of Europe becoming the Ottoman Empire circa 1900 is quite amazing to see in live time.
 
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jlvfr said:
Apparently Russia is trying to buy back the S-400 systems they sold to Turkey...
Ukranian attacks must be really putting a stress on the russian air defence net...
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Interesting. I doubt Erdogan will comply though since doing so would literally amount to a NATO member nation selling weapons to Russia in violation of the arms embargo. Imagine the shit show that would result if news got out he had done so. On top of that? The Turks presumably spent good money purchasing the S400s in the first place because they filled a perceived gap in their air defense capabilities. Unless they now regard that capability as obsolete or unnecessary (which I doubt) what are they going to replace them with?

But even if the report isn't true? I bet it's enough to get NATO interested in doing a very thorough head count on Turkeys S400 systems and their whereabouts over the next few months.
 
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Monash said:
On top of that the Turks presumably spent good money purchasing the S400s in the first place because they filled a perceived gap in their air defense capabilities. Unless they now regard that capability as obsolete or unnecessary (which I doubt) what are they going to replace them with?
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Acording to the article, 2.5 billion in 2017 USD. They'd have to replace them with multiple Patriot or something similar. But yes, the political side will problably block this.
Highly unlikely but... imagine if Turkey gives them over to Ukraine? Wouldn't that start a loud screaming session in the Kremlin...
 
jlvfr said:
Acording to the article, 2.5 billion in 2017 USD. They'd have to replace them with multiple Patriot or something similar. But yes, the political side will problably block this.
Highly unlikely but... imagine if Turkey gives them over to Ukraine? Wouldn't that start a loud screaming session in the Kremlin...
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I'd love that second bit occur but alas the same problem applies. What does Turkey replace them with regardless of who they give (or sell) the S400s to? Replacing them with Patriots would take a couple of years (at a guess) given current demand. On top of which ? Lets face it. Erdogan has never exactly been part of the Ukraine 'fan club' has he? Yes, Turkey is part of NATO but Erdogan himself? Is cut more from the same fabric as Putin than he is from the cloth of classic European liberal democracy.
 
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Monash said:
I'd love that second bit occur but alas the same problem applies. What does Turkey replace them with regardless of who they give (or sell) the S400s to? Replacing them with Patriots would take a couple of years (at a guess) given current demand. On top of which ? Lets face it. Erdogan has never exactly been part of the Ukraine 'fan club' has he? Yes, Turkey is part of NATO but Erdogan himself? Is cut more from the same fabric as Putin than he is from the cloth of classic European liberal democracy.
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True; he's very much playing both sides. Supplied some gear to Ukraine (Bayraktar!), plays nice with the EU, while at the same time waving at Russia...
 
jlvfr said:
True; he's very much playing both sides. Supplied some gear to Ukraine (Bayraktar!), plays nice with the EU, while at the same time waving at Russia...
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Remember he also helped to arm (and I suspect train) the Azeri forces that humiliated Russia & drove Armenia out of Nagorno-Karabak. Russian troops were in the firing line there before they bugged out.

He is also helping Azerbaijan set up the Zangezur corridor through Armenia to its Nakhchivan exclave. This has seriously upset Iran & Russia.

Erdogan has shown a willingess to play footsies with Russia when it suits, but in recent times he hasn't been making many friends in Moscow. That alone is a fair indication that Putin is struggling. Erdogan is a survivor. Right now he doesn't see Putin as a good bet.
 
Speaking of which Russian authorities are reporting that a major Russian oil refinery located north of Moscow (the Slavneft-YANOS refinery) suffered a 'technical failure' a few days ago. There seems to be a lot of technical failures going around these days in the Russian oil industry. Any way I'm sure this one 'tis but a scratch' and production will return to normal levels shortly! :sneaky:

IMG_7693.jpeg
 
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Monash said:
Speaking of which Russian authorities are reporting that a major Russian oil refinery located north of Moscow (the Slavneft-YANOS refinery) suffered a 'technical failure' a few days ago. There seems to be a lot of technical failures going around these days in the Russian oil industry. Any way I'm sure this one 'tis but a scratch' and production will return to normal levels shortly! :sneaky:
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The exchange is not in the UKR's favour

www.businessinsider.com

Ukraine says a massive Russian overnight missile and drone barrage was packed with 100,000 foreign-made parts

Zelenskyy said Russia fired 496 strike drones and 53 missiles in one night, and they had 102,785 foreign-made components, including from the US.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
 
Officer of Engineers said:
The exchange is not in the UKR's favour

www.businessinsider.com

Ukraine says a massive Russian overnight missile and drone barrage was packed with 100,000 foreign-made parts

Zelenskyy said Russia fired 496 strike drones and 53 missiles in one night, and they had 102,785 foreign-made components, including from the US.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
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Yes saw that. Those components need to be made available for inspection by the representatives of the governments involved asap. Some but not all can probably be traced back to specific batch numbers and from there to the original buyers. At the least the manufactures can then be blocked from making further sales to those customers absent evidence the parts were diverted somewhere else further along the supply chain.
 
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