2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

omon said:
It will fall, then other cities will fall too, it is inevitable.
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A the rate Russia is advancing and losing men while doing so? The last Russian will die conquering the last city in Ukraine.
 
Monash said:
A the rate Russia is advancing and losing men while doing so? The last Russian will die conquering the last city in Ukraine.
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Omon assures us that Russia has more than enough willing meat to throw into the grinder to conquer all of Ukraine.
 
Monash said:
A the rate Russia is advancing and losing men while doing so? The last Russian will die conquering the last city in Ukraine.
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The last Ukrainian will die before then. The Ukrainians are losing men at equivalent rates as the Russians and the Russians have more.
 
Officer of Engineers said:
The last Ukrainian will die before then. The Ukrainians are losing men at equivalent rates as the Russians and the Russians have more.
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On paper. Putin can't risk ordering a general mobilization for political reasons and some regional governments are starting to reduce the amount offered as sign-on bonuses because they're running out of cash as is the Russian government itself for non-military expenditures. Meanwhile Ukraine is at least still receiving financial support from the west.
 
For an entire army tying down NATO, including massive US forces that can't be used in Taiwan? Damned cheap!

The point is the UKR is losing the war. In any metric you want to use, the ONLY way the propaganda has worked is to ignore the Ukrainian side. Once you add in the same metric to the Ukrainian side, the story becomes a Russian tilted one. Money? The Russians got more (Chinese). Casualties? Roughly the same tilted against the Russians. Territory? Russians are gaining. Recruitment? OVERWHELMINGLY in Russia's favour. Over 125K (that's 5 Ukrainian armies) of Ukrainian absences or desertion in 2025 alone and this in a country of full mobilization. Meanwhile, not only are the Russians raising new armies (however small they may be), they've also got North Koreans sending entire divisions.

That the UKR is holding her own is a miracle of her determination but statistics wise leaves us one hope for Kiev: Ukrainian brilliance (drone warfare).
 
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Officer of Engineers said:
$170bil loans so far
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That's just Russia's total external debt to China incurred since 2000. China has not loaned Russia $170 billion over the course of this war.

I don't think the war will be decided on the battlefield. Ukraine doesn't have to win the war, they just have to not lose it. And Putin will not live forever.
 
Ironduke said:
That's just Russia's total external debt to China incurred since 2000. China has not loaned Russia $170 billion over the course of this war.
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Just the fact that China is not asking for repayment alone is money in Moscow's pocket. $170bil that Russia can use as she sees fit as long as the war goes on.

Ironduke said:
I don't think the war will be decided on the battlefield. Ukraine doesn't have to win the war, they just have to not lose it. And Putin will not live forever.
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So basically who leaves office first? Zelensky or Putin. Odds are better that Zelensky is booted out of office before Putin dies.
 
The entire loan balance of $170 billion not being immediately called due does not mean Russia has $170 billion to spend. Most of that money was already spent before the war began. Can't spend it twice just because it hasn't been repaid.

Maybe Zelensky will leave office before Putin dies, but I don't think this will result in a Ukrainian surrender to Russia.

And I'm not sure where you're getting your figures that Ukrainian to Russia casualty figures are roughly the same. The Russians for all their meager gains have been on offensive all of 2025, I don't think they're inflicting equal losses on the side that's on the defensive.
 
Ironduke said:
The entire loan balance of $170 billion not being immediately called due does not mean Russia has $170 billion to spend. Most of that money was already spent before the war began. Can't spend it twice just because it hasn't been repaid.
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Yes, it does. You loan me $100K to buy my house. I don't have to pay you back. My mortgage payments mine to spend as I please. Xi and Putin got the money angle well in hand.


As you can see the loans jumped big time in 2014 and major big time during the invasion.

Ironduke said:
Maybe Zelensky will leave office before Putin dies, but I don't think this will result in a Ukrainian surrender to Russia.
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Whomever replaces Zelensky will face the same pressure.
Ironduke said:
And I'm not sure where you're getting your figures that Ukrainian to Russia casualty figures are 1:1. The Russians for all their meager gains have been on offensive all of 2025, I don't think they're inflicting equal losses on the side that's on the defensive.
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Never said 1:1. I said equivalent. By that, I mean Ukrainian casualties are not out of whack against the Russians. We're not see 2:1, let alone 3:1 pro Ukrainian casualty ratios. My rough estimates is 1.3 Russians to every 1 Ukrainian. Not out of whack by any means. The Russians can lose more because they have more. The Ukrainians could afford less because they have less. But everyone the Ukrainians lose would be harder to replace than the Russians. As of 2025, desertions and absentee reporting is 125K+. Given there's only 200K of such cases since the beginning of the war, over half is in 2025 alone is a staggering statistic. And no, the Ukrainians did not suffer 125,000 casualties this year but they lost far more troops than that.
 
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Officer of Engineers said:
The Russians got China.
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Not for fiances they haven't. Xi's relationship with Putin is transactional and at the moment Russia has little beyond oil and gas to offer, hell Chinese companies already have access to recourse extraction projects across the Russian far east. About the only thing Putin could offer would be to sell the entire region to Beijing and somehow I see even Putin balking at that option! On top of which XI also wants to curry favor with Trump at the moment over bi-lateral trade issues and tariffs. If word leaked out that China was financially supporting Russia's war effort the political ramifications for its trade with the EU and US would - not be good. IMO XI has little to gain from helping Putin out of the mess he got himself into in Ukraine more than he is already and lot to lose if he were to do more than just profit from cheap oil and gas and the sale of dual purpose electronics etc
 
Err the graph shows Chinese loans were increasing at a rapid rate before the war even started. It doesn't show a raid change since it started.
 
Still $170bil loans since 2000 that is not being paid back. That's a hell of a lot of loan payments going towards the war.

Lastly Xi is the LAST person to curry favour with Trump. He sees himself as Trump's equal and certainly sees himself smarter than Trump. Trump is the last thing in any equation between Xi and Putin.
 
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Officer of Engineers said:
Still $170bil loans since 2000 that is not being paid back. That's a hell of a lot of loan payments going towards the war.
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And that's part of Russia's economic predicament the longer the war continues the deeper in the whole they are and there's not a lot Putin can do to speed up the pace of whatever forward progress he is managing in Ukraine so when the war finally end? Russia is going to have serious economic problems. Defaults are not out of the question, that or a renegotiation of loan terms - both of which cost China. Given it's own economic problems how much more good money do you think Xi is prepared to throw onto the table for Moscow on top of the big pile of potentially bad debt already there.
 
Do you really think Xi cares about Putin winning? He cares about Putin tying down NATO and it's respective US forces. All Xi has to do is to keep Putin in the fight and it's damned cheap the way Xi is doing it. Again, Xi cares about Taiwan. He couldn't give a rat's ass about Putin winning or losing as long as NATO (and its respective US forces) does not move on Taiwan.

This is nothing new. During the Cold War, Deng's calculus is to not win or lose against the USSR but to tie down Siberia so that NATO would have a chance. Same thing here. Putin's job (in Xi's mind) is to tie down NATO so he has a chance at Taiwan.
 
Officer of Engineers said:
Do you really think Xi cares about Putin winning? He cares about Putin tying down NATO and it's respective US forces. All Xi has to do is to keep Putin in the fight and it's damned cheap the way Xi is doing it. Again, Xi cares about Taiwan. He couldn't give a rat's ass about Putin winning or losing as long as NATO (and its respective US forces) does not move on Taiwan.

This is nothing new. During the Cold War, Deng's calculus is to not win or lose against the USSR but to tie down Siberia so that NATO would have a chance. Same thing here. Putin's job (in Xi's mind) is to tie down NATO so he has a chance at Taiwan.
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Putins's 'trying down' bugger all US forces in Europe. There are what 70 to 80 thousand US soldiers stationed there, About the same as there were before the war started. And Trump is making noises about drawing down on that number. Combat aircraft? There are what? 3 or 4 fighter wings plus support wings stationed in England, Germany and elsewhere. Potentially significant if a war were to break out in the Pacific but still no more air frames than were stationed in Europe prior to the war starting and those assets can be transferred where needed pretty rapidly. Naval Vessels? Not many at all because not many are needed since the European NATO members have more than enough hulls in the water to deal with Russian naval power in Europe short of a full on submarine campaign in the Atlantic.

Yes the US want's to pivot towards the Pacific but that pivot is underway it certainly hasn't been stalled by the war in Ukraine. If anything that war has done Xi a disservice by highlighting serious short falls in NATO's magazine capacity (for example artillery shells and SAMs while other NATO Members are also rearming and reequipping.

And since the buildup for any invasion of Tawain would be observed by the US and it's East Asian partners well in advance of completion unless Xi is planning to invade Tawain in the next couple of years? Putin just made his job harder not easier.
 
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