2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War
- Thread starter Mithridates
- Start date
Vermont would be more friendly,
I believe Putin thinks that way, as well as others that agree with him, because there is something "wrong" with him and his followers. This means a behavior pathology or psychopathology, poorly studied unfortunately.
Abnormal behavior can come from different sources, such as mental illness, dementia / physical damage, or from an environmental influence. Most mental illnesses are a mix, and often difficult to predict. Some abnormalities are mostly from environmental influences, that are easier to predict and spot, and even prevent, like addictions. Some literature suggests that at least criminal violence is mostly environmental isolated to 4 specific cumulative life experiences explained in the book, "Why The Kill . . ." by Rhodes. Group violence is not understood as well but there is evidence in a niche area political science literature that suggests that group violence also comes from a cumulative process. Cumulative processes can be understood and interrupted and have been successfully solved in individuals and social systems, also unfortunately not discussed in the international relations literature that I have seen.
So Putin and his followers likely think that way because their life experiences made them that way. Life experiences can be personal or from indoctrination. Indoctrination, or "violent coaching" is one of the 4 key cumulative life experiences to produce violent criminals per one criminologist discussed in the referenced book.
it's hard to believe after all this time, Zelensky -still- doesn't know how to deal with this administration.
trying to appeal to their (non-existent) higher values, talking about Russian influence, trying to publicly get security guarantees.
he should have laid it on with a trowel like a courtier out of Versailles - then QUIETLY negotiate within the context of the rare earth deal.
terrible, just terrible. it's hard to believe after all this time, Zelensky -still- doesn't know how to deal with this administration.
trying to appeal to their (non-existent) higher values, talking about Russian influence, trying to publicly get security guarantees.
he should have laid it on with a trowel like a courtier out of Versailles - then QUIETLY negotiate within the context of the rare earth deal.
terrible, just terrible.
trying to appeal to their (non-existent) higher values, talking about Russian influence, trying to publicly get security guarantees.
he should have laid it on with a trowel like a courtier out of Versailles - then QUIETLY negotiate within the context of the rare earth deal.
terrible, just terrible. it's hard to believe after all this time, Zelensky -still- doesn't know how to deal with this administration.
trying to appeal to their (non-existent) higher values, talking about Russian influence, trying to publicly get security guarantees.
he should have laid it on with a trowel like a courtier out of Versailles - then QUIETLY negotiate within the context of the rare earth deal.
terrible, just terrible.
Amled
Well-known member
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9dejydynngo
Trump does have a tendency of exaggerating, when he is doing his BFF Putin a favor.
After his one-on-one with Putin; during his previous term, he came out and told an astounded world, that the miniscule nation of Montenegro (around 650,000 populations, with a military of around 6,000) was a danger to world peace!
While I seriously doubt that Trump even knew where Montenegro was located, Putin certainly did! Especially since NATO and Montenegrin intelligence had at that time just forestalled a pro-Russian putsch, with solid evidence pointing straight to the Russian FSB!
This time it’s Ukraine that’s cast in the role. I guess that to Trump, when a weaker part stands up to a stronger. it offends his world view.
He and his pet pit bull Vance actually thought that they could pressure Zelensky. When that failed, they accused him of insulting the Oval Office by his refusal, and kicked him out of the WH!
I’ve said it before, but Putin an a his minions must be laughing their asses off!!!
In reality, how was this going to end any other way though?
Zelenskyy wanted security guarantees and needed them for a good reason.
Trump was never going to give security guarantees.
If neither backed off, there was never going to be a deal.
So serious questions for the group:
Do you think a majority of the heavy hitters in the Trump administration in relevant roles (Trump, Vance, State Department, Defense, Intelligence, National Security, etc.) are majority pro-Ukrainian coup occurring?
If so, do you think there's a medium/medium-high/high-level individual inside the Trump administration that would behind the scenes orchestrate and help aid it?
Do you think a majority of the heavy hitters in the Trump administration in relevant roles (Trump, Vance, State Department, Defense, Intelligence, National Security, etc.) are majority pro-Ukrainian coup occurring?
If so, do you think there's a medium/medium-high/high-level individual inside the Trump administration that would behind the scenes orchestrate and help aid it?
tbm3fan
Defense Professional
You mean something equivalent to the White House Plumbers? Hard to say given that the current admin seems to act a bit like a sieve although trump is trying to get rod of every single person who would side with Ukraine and also side against him in every shape or form. Fascism moves in dribs and drabs.
statquo
Well-known member
Here’s another question for everyone. With the US saying we aren’t going to protect you anymore, taking a predatory foreign policy, siding with the autocrat, are we entering the age of nuclear proliferation? If you can’t depend on the US protecting you, why shouldn’t you acquire nuclear weapons for protection then?
Monash
Military Professional
This is one of the (many) issues with Trump's so called 'peace plan' I don't understand. He seems to be operating on the assumption that America and Russia can come to some bilateral agreement on a peace deal and that he can then impose that deal on Ukraine and everyone else involved! And to top it off he seems to think he can do it at no cost to the US. The US gets Ukrainian mineral rights and the responsibility for the necessary post peace security guarantees get outsourced to Europe! All with no consultation from the other parties involved. He can't force the EU to drop sanctions, return frozen funds or restart trade with Russia, he can't force them to drop military support for Ukraine and he cant force Ukraine to accept terms which leave them exposed to another Russian offensive in 12 months as soon as it manages to reorganize and rearm.
Hell at this stage it doesn't even look like the US will even be involved in monitoring and enforcing compliance with whatever terms are included in the treaty. I'm starting to think Trump's plan from the onset was simply to put the first deal he could get out of Putin on the table regardless of it's contents then walk away shouting 'mission accomplished. After that? When it inevitably gets rejected? He can simply start blaming everyone else for it's failure. That way he crosses ending the war in Ukraine off his 'to do' list because it's other peoples fault his 'brilliant' deal was rejected. Then off he waddles to his next master plan. The resort in Gaza perhaps?
Hell at this stage it doesn't even look like the US will even be involved in monitoring and enforcing compliance with whatever terms are included in the treaty. I'm starting to think Trump's plan from the onset was simply to put the first deal he could get out of Putin on the table regardless of it's contents then walk away shouting 'mission accomplished. After that? When it inevitably gets rejected? He can simply start blaming everyone else for it's failure. That way he crosses ending the war in Ukraine off his 'to do' list because it's other peoples fault his 'brilliant' deal was rejected. Then off he waddles to his next master plan. The resort in Gaza perhaps?
Monash
Military Professional
Most of those were proxy wars and the ones that weren't i.e. Pakistan/India (post the development of the Pakistan's bomb) & Russia China? Were border wars where both sides were careful to limit the amount of conventional forces involved. the location of combat and the depth of any advance. It could always have gone wrong of course but still the combatants were cautious and 'messaged' their punches.
what Zelensky didn't, and doesn't, comprehend is that for Trump and Vance, the rare earths deal is the chump change, the face-saving deal to minimally support Ukraine - a country they don't give a shit about, because Trump/Vance don't care about values nor about Europe. they only care to the extent that Trump wants to look like a peacemaker and win that freakin' Nobel to rub it in the face of Obama and Biden.
the entire idea was conceived by Lindsey Graham. Zelensky viewed it as "minerals for security guarantees"; Trump views it as "minerals for US presence".
so the tack Zelensky should have taken was to put on a shit-eating grin and take the goddamn deal - knowing full well that those minerals aren't gonna get out of the ground anytime soon, but at the very least could say that Ukraine was trying to fulfill the US demands.
then, at the lower level, slowly push for more - and most of all, build up their own forces feverishly while praying that a more-friendly administration comes down the pike four years later to massage the deal.
instead, he thought he had leverage, wanted to make a point about not trusting the Russians, etc etc, show pictures of dead Ukrainians to Trump/Vance.
Trump is a showsman, give him the goddamn show and go home. when Trump talked about Zelensky "not having any cards", he wasn't -just- referring to Zelensky not having cards vis-a-vis Putin.
Last edited:
Monash
Military Professional
Cocking the trigger is still not pulling the trigger & MAD is still a powerful motivator for caution. And I'm not arguing that a nuclear war can or never will be fought I'm simply pointing out that there is a strong disincentive against doing so..
Monash
Military Professional
Nothing was said about anyone having 'expectations' that the other side will always deescalate in the face of 'threats'. Instead deescalation results from the certainty of the outcome should one side or the other launch an attack i.e. it is certain that regardless of who fires first both nations involved will die as a consequence of the inevitable (and to date unstoppable) counterstrike. It's not a case of threatening nuclear destruction, its a case of guaranteeing it!
Last edited:
Monash
Military Professional
That's the point. As of now there's no technology in the world that can prevent any nuclear armed state one side launching a devastating counterstrike in the event they are attacked. Whoever fires first? Knows this to and as a result knows they're going to be die as well (or at least that their nation will) just a few minutes after their enemy dies. There's no 'win'.
Monash
Military Professional
I don't believe so, in the case of the Sino Russian war in question and as I stated in an earlier post this was an example of a: 'border war where both sides were careful to limit the amount of conventional forces involved. the location of combat and the depth of any advance. It could always have gone wrong of course but still the combatants were cautious and 'messaged' their punches.'
In theory? Nuclear blackmail can work when a nuclear armed power threatens a nation without such weapons or even one with just a handful of nukes but today at least, the collateral damage to the aggressors international standing and the potential intervention of other powers tends to limit its practicality. And as I keep pointing out in any war between the major nuclear powers today there's no way the instigator can prevent lethal retaliation. Everybody dies - that's the deterrent!
Monash
Military Professional
The 'everyone' was and is not meant to be taken literally. The point is that one side cannot attack another without taking serious damage in return. And even a small number of nuclear weapons (depending on where they are aimed) can do enough damage to act as a deterrent in all but the most extreme of circumstances. Even if the US and Russia go at it hammer and tong? The human race would survive. It would just not be a world any sane person would want to see or live in (and I assume that includes the both of us).