Will SARS make a come back?

[Double Edge]

Given we are dealing with commies here, the below applies

Read the intel.
Read the ground.
Read the enemy.
Read the situation.

Then, decide.

aka check your biases at the door !

Let's see how sustainable this will be. Wish them all the best.



Recovered there seems as high as Germany. Half the affected

Kerala opts for reverse quarantine to flatten Covid-19 curve | NIE | Apr 14 2020

Reverse quarantine means protect the vulnerable or what Germany did since day 1

Kerala resumes 28-day quarantine for ‘suspects’ | Hindu | Mar 09 2020

Only state in the country with a 28 day quarantine. That is only for high risk contacts and those with symptoms. Low risk is 14 days. The definition of low risk is interesting. Anyone who shares the same space but not exposed to anyone deemed high risk.

The norm is 14 days elsewhere in the country.

COVID-19: Kerala police is using ‘geofencing’ to ensure people stay in home quarantine | News Minute | Mar 24 2020

They use geofencing to monitor the quarantined. This is similar to what China uses without the health codes. However

At present, not everyone on the observation list is being monitored. “Only the high-risk contacts, like those who have had close association with the positive COVID-19 cases and those whom officials think may break protocol, are monitored,” he explained.

Kerala tests more than 10,000 samples for Covid-19 infection | Hindu | Apr 07 2020

10k submitted of which 9,607 prove negative. That is a 1 in 25 hit rate.

Guess how many in home quarantine ? 150k !!! For just one state : O



PPE ? we ain't got enough to go around. So these people came up with this instead. Only if doctor recommended. Not mass testing.

Kerela Directorate of Health services

That is where you find the quarantine numbers : )

Around 110k in quarantine as of Apr 13, so it has reduced

Trying to find what the definition of recovered is i had to look at the guidelines for discharge.

2 samples, 24h apart are clinically stable. So that's a double check . Patient has been in quarantine for 14 days from last negative test result or 28 days whichever is later.

With best recovery rate, Kerala is the flagbearer of India's fight against Covid-19 | TOI | Apr 06 2020

Why does Kerala have the best recovery rate in the country ?

According to a ToI report, healthcare experts have cited Kerala's early identification system and its specialised Covid-care wards as the main reasons behind the state's good recovery rate.

Other contributing factors are a strong community health network in both Kerela & TN and experience with Nipah virus.

Coronavirus: India's Kerala state spots cases early after experience with 2018 Nipah outbreak | Straits Times | Feb 05 2020

Mr Rajeev Sadanandan, the former health secretary who helmed Kerala's response to Nipah virus, said: "Frankly, there were two embarrassing things in the Nipah experience.

"One, that we missed the index case. The first person who turned up with the symptoms died before his sample could be collected."

"Two, a lot of infections happened in the hospital setting. Both are not signs of a good health system," said Mr Sadanandan, who now chairs health systems research at the Indian Council of Medical Research.

To avoid repeating its mistakes, Kerala created structures like isolation centres and "cuff corners" to prevent hospital-acquired infections. For faster detection, the state also developed case definitions of emerging pathogens and established response protocols.

So how did it play out

As news of the coronavirus outbreak in China emerged in January, Kerala became "extra vigilant", the Health Minister said.

Within a week, the state set up a health desk in all four of its airports to screen international passengers, who are given a health card to fill out with details of their travel and health.

People with fever, cough or sore throat - symptoms of the coronavirus infection - are taken for examination by medical practitioners, and quarantined for observation.

"Nipah came out of the blue, while 2019-novel coronavirus was very much expected as several Kerala students from Wuhan, China came back to Kerala in early January 2020 for the Chinese New Year vacation and then due to the outbreak. So, preparedness was better," said Mr G. Arunkumar, director of the Manipal Institute of Virology in Mahe, who had helped identify the Nipah virus early.

As of Feb 3, 2,239 people are isolated and under surveillance in Kerala. Of these, three people, from different regions of the state but all with a history of travel to Wuhan, tested positive for the virus.

On Feb 4, the Kerala government declared the disease caused by the coronavirus as a "state calamity", a protocol that allows for a marshalling of state resources.

Kerala's public awareness campaign now encourages those who return from China and show even a mild fever to go to the nearest health centre.

Mr Sadanandan said that health secretaries in most other Indian states were worried that without proactive surveillance, the coronavirus might spread undetected.

"What you need is political will, an adequate number of personnel in the public health system, these people having adequate capacity and training, and also pride in their job - that an epidemic won't happen on my watch," he said.

Beginning of Feb they already had 2k under the scanner. That is the early warning system in play. They day after they declared a state emergency.

Forewarned is forearmed. This is as close as we get to Taiwan in India : )

The word early is the reason for more recoveries. They got infected early and are now out of quarantine.

[Oracle]

Fingers crossed : (

All India deliveries? Yeah right. By all India, they mean metros.

This lockdown also gave me few ideas. Like for example www.licious.com, replicating the same here. Or maybe something else, but it has to do with food.

I can't help thank my lucky stars, what if I started a small business in January or Feb, that would have been bankrupt by now.

[Double Edge]

I can't help thank my lucky stars, what if I started a small business in January or Feb, that would have been bankrupt by now.

If that business made face masks & hand sanitiser maybe not : )

[Oracle]

If that business made face masks & hand sanitiser maybe not : )

Well, not everybody can emulate Nouriel Roubini or Oskar Schindler.

[Double Edge]

How Pathanamthitta district setting a model in containing COVID-19 spread despite the high risks | DH | Mar 20 2020

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan directed all districts to adopt the Pathanamthitta model, the highlights of which were

- swift isolation of all those having primary and secondary contacts with the infected,
- many worship places being closed voluntarily and
- participation of people at gatherings restricted to less than ten.

They also got buy in from religious leaders

Raju Abraham, an MLA from the district, said that as soon as five persons in the district were tested COVID-19 positive on March 8 and the health authorities alerted about the chances of a massive spread, the people's representatives and district collector P B Nooh urged all religious heads in the districts to ensure minimum gatherings.

"About 90 percent religious places were willing to stop the prayers. Many churches also called off Sunday masses. Now ward level committees with representatives from police are being formed to ensure that no one violated home quarantine," said Abraham.

How Agra, Bhilwara and Pathanamthitta coronavirus models differ | IE | Apr 13 2020

Bhilwara is really brutal

How did the Pathanamthitta differ ?

Technology has been the hallmark of the Pathanamthitta model in Kerala. The district saw its first cases in early March, when a three-member Italy-returned family ended up infecting several relatives while socialising with them. The count would eventually go up to 16.

Border sealing and contact tracing happened here too. But more than just screening contacts, every person who had entered the district was screened and a database created so that they could be easily reached at short notice. In addition, graphics were created showing the travel route of the positive cases and publicised. This included details of all places the family had travelled to, and the potential contacts they would have made there between February 29 and March 6.

This helped in self-reporting. As people realised from the route maps that they had indeed come in contact with a COVID-19 positive person, many walked up to be screened or treated.

What a difference !!

[kato]

If that business made face masks & hand sanitiser maybe not : )

Or you do it like this guy from a village near here:



He decided to buy "a few" facemasks in Poland and Brazil in early January. As in, those pallets behind him are what he has left over by now after selling two to three million of them...

[Double Edge]

Spain accused of 'reckless' easing of lockdown as millions prepare to return to work | Telegraph | Apr 13 2020

Madrid decision to get millions back to work comes as France maintains strict lockdown until May 11

By Henry Samuel PARIS ; James Badcock MADRID and Giada Zampano ROME
13 April 2020

Spain - one of the world’s worst-hit by coronavirus - came under heavy criticism on Monday for “recklessly” easing lock down without sufficient protection for workers.

The accusations came as Europe’s leaders debated how far and fast to lift confinement amid signs the epidemic is slowing down and pressure to kick start paralysed economies.

The latest figures suggest that Spain’s lockdown is stemming infections, which grew by only two per cent on Monday, the lowest daily rate so far. Almost 170,000 have now contracted the virus. The health ministry reported 517 deaths in a day, also a drop, taking the total toll to 17,489.

Amid cautious optimism that the curve of fatalities, hospitalisation and infection rates is flattening in Europe, moves are foot in France, Germany and Italy to gradually lift confinement in the coming weeks

In Spain, while many continue to remain indoors except for essential reasons like shopping, millions were on Monday allowed to travel to work, particularly factory and construction workers, after a 10-day freeze on all non-essential economic activity elapsed. The coronavirus outbreak has already cost some 900,000 jobs since mid-March.

Spanish prime minister Pedro Sanchez warned: "We are still far from victory, from the moment when we can pick up our normal lives again, but we have made the first decisive steps in the path towards victory.”

With workers allowed to travel, Spanish security forces launched an official drive to distribute face masks from a stock of 10 million, handing them out at major public transport hubs.

"It's amazing that the government is doing this because either you can't find them in shops or they're very expensive," said nurse Brenda Palacios, who took two masks.

However, many employers complained that no direct supply lines had been organised for their workers.

“It’s pathetic that it is a question of luck if a worker gets handed a face mask at a station. It is impossible to obtain masks, even though the recommendations say we must provide them for employees,” Antonio Moraleda, a builder who employs six workers, told The Telegraph.

Sergio García, a 34-year-old construction worker from Madrid, told El País that nothing had improved at his building site since before the economic lockdown.

“I am still turning up with my own gloves and mask. They give me nothing here, and some of my colleagues are working without protection.”

Unions have told workers to down tools if they do not feel protected on the job.

Pablo Casado, leader of the main conservative opposition Popular Party, accused the government of “excessive improvisation” regarding the return to work.

Quim Torra, the president of Catalonia called the partial lifting “hugely rash” and declared that his regional administration would be taking its own measures to protect those due back at work after Catalonia’s Easter Monday holiday.

Debate over easing restrictions was equally fierce in Italy, whose death toll topped 20,000 on Monday. While daily deaths rose to 566 from 431 on Sunday, the number of critically ill patients fell for the tenth successive day and the rise in new infections also dropped to a new low of just two per cent.

With the country due to gradually start lifting lockdown measures from May 4, many local authorities are pushing for firms to re-open earlier as the fragile Italian economy faces its heaviest recession since the Second World War.

Italy’s northern Liguria region was the latest to announce autonomous steps to restart some activities, from forestry to beach club maintenance.

“It’s shameful that some construction sites, like the ones working on optic fibre, are closed,” said Liguria’s governor Giovanni Toti.

In Veneto, one of the first regions hit by the coronavirus outbreak but which has seen cases falls sharply, governor Luca Zaia suggested re-opening all “virtuous firms” able to fully protect their workers with masks, gloves and social distancing.

“About 60 per cent of firms here are already open and we can see it from traffic, which has increased,” he claimed. “At this point, I’m making plans considering that the lockdown doesn’t exist anymore.”

However, two other northern regions, Lombardy and Piedmont – among the worst-hit – are keeping to a strict lockdown until early May.

Meanwhile, Germany - where deaths, some 2,799, and new infections are lower than in most EU states - is considering a far more radical shift in confinement rules.

With restrictions imposed in mid-March set to expire on Sunday, Chancellor Angela Merkel and the heads of Germany's 16 regions are due on Wednesday to decide whether to heed the advice of the nation's Academy of Sciences Leopoldina.

The body advised the phased reopening of schools as soon as possible, starting with primary and middle, along with shops and restaurants - as long as social distancing measures are rigorously respected - and for government offices to get back to work.

It conditioned easing confinement on face masks being declared compulsory in public transport.

France, however, where the death toll is just under 15,000, took a more cautious stance on Monday night, with President Emmanuel Macron announcing no easing of confinement until May 11.

In a televised address, he said that schools would be progressively opened starting from that date and a growing number of people allowed to return work. Restaurants and cafes would remain shut, however, and borders with non-European countries will remain closed until further notice.

By May 11, France would be able to test anyone presenting COVID-19 symptoms, he pledged.

"May 11 will be the start of a new phase. It will be progressive and the rules can be adapted according to our results," he said. The use of masks may become "systematic".

His comments came after major French study led by national research institute, Inserm, warned of a second wave of infections without mass testing and the isolation of infected people.

“Lifting confinement without an exit strategy would prompt a second wave that would largely crush the health system,” it warned.

Outside Europe, India is also reportedly planning to reopen its manufacturing industry, despite an expected extension of a nationwide lockdown until the end of April.

The world’s second-most populous nation announced a three-week curfew on March 24, causing factories to shut down and a bottleneck of goods with all non-essential transport curtailed.

[kato]

This lockdown also gave me few ideas. Like for example www.licious.com, replicating the same here. Or maybe something else, but it has to do with food.

We have a lot of small food resale businesses who are currently going under. Their primary business is procuring and stocking "regional" food products and selling them - often with delivery - to restaurants. Some food production - small farmers - is also heavily dependent on this sales chain, and now sees their business plummeting with restaurants locked down. Lamb for example - since it's in season for easter now - is down 50% in sales for local production.

If this goes on over the summer it might even impact diversity in food availability. There are for example some ancient pig breeds raised regionally in parts of Europe with their meat pretty much only sold through restaurants. Here locally that's the Swabian-Hall swine (a crossbreed with Chinese Meishan pig), which already previously between ca 1950 and 1970 for lack of consumer sales went from being the default domestic pig to being virtually extinct with only 8 pigs remaining by 1980.

[kato]

Our local newspaper has finally dug up when the last similar disease-related lockdown occured in my city: In 1958.

The infectious disease outbreak back then was smallpox. A doctor at the university clinic got infected on a visit to India, and of course was both not vaccinated and did not observe any precautions after coming back. The clinic also only halfheartedly isolated him and did not report the outbreak for a full week. The outbreak was finally contained by quarantining the clinic he worked at, isolating 500 people; the quarantine was enforced by a riot police cordon after initially there were attempts to circumvent it by those inside - including a quick black market developing through side windows to procure in particular alcohol and tobacco for those inside.

Contact tracing was employed to track those who had contact with the people inside before the quarantine, as well as those who had contact with the doctor's maid or the clinic's barber, with the contacts quarantined at a quickly constructed isolation ward in the clinic. Schools and university remained closed down for weeks.

Difference to today was of course that there was a vaccine available. Vaccination against smallpox was already legally required since 1874 (!) but the requirements had been relaxed during nazi times and only reinstated in 1949; 27,000 people were swiftly mass-vaccinated after the outbreak. The doctor was sentenced in 1962 for negligent manslaughter to 130 days prison set out on probation and a 1000 DM fine - equivalent about 2500 USD today.

[Double Edge]

I'm trying to figure out how many people we have under quarantine that is in state facilities and home quarantine.

Looking at various state govt health websites i see figures mentioned in their bulletins

When they don't mention this i looked at news reports

kerela - 100k
Maha - 160k
TN - 100k
WB - 100k
UP - 435k
Gujarat - 6k
Karnataka - 20k

How much is that ? 920k

Fair to say we have close to or just over a million people in quarantine in the entire country

As people finish their 14 days with no symptoms they are let out.

Otherwise they will get treatment or beds.

Yes, the reported cases are the tip of the ice berg.

What's below is that other figure : )

[Oracle]

Or you do it like this guy from a village near here:

[ATTACH]48505[/ATTACH]

He decided to buy "a few" facemasks in Poland and Brazil in early January. As in, those pallets behind him are what he has left over by now after selling two to three million of them...

So this guy knew what was coming. Brilliant. If they don't make money, who will? I read news all the time, but couldn't come up with anything. This crisis taught me my thinking is so average. That's the difference between people who make real money and people who just get by.

[Oracle]

We have a lot of small food resale businesses who are currently going under. Their primary business is procuring and stocking "regional" food products and selling them - often with delivery - to restaurants. Some food production - small farmers - is also heavily dependent on this sales chain, and now sees their business plummeting with restaurants locked down. Lamb for example - since it's in season for easter now - is down 50% in sales for local production.

If this goes on over the summer it might even impact diversity in food availability. There are for example some ancient pig breeds raised regionally in parts of Europe with their meat pretty much only sold through restaurants. Here locally that's the Swabian-Hall swine (a crossbreed with Chinese Meishan pig), which already previously between ca 1950 and 1970 for lack of consumer sales went from being the default domestic pig to being virtually extinct with only 8 pigs remaining by 1980.

Then this is the right time to sell directly to consumers. That is, door delivery to retail customers. They can pivot their model, and if needed tailor the process a bit and survive. In India, lockdown means, one gets nothing, one sells nothing. Millions of MSM (mirco, small, medium) businesses would go bust.

[Oracle]

Lockdown extended till May 3rd. Hellooooo DE.

Yesterday, when booze shops opened, within 30 mins police came in and caned people in queue for not maintaining social distance and closed the booze shops. I was frustrated.

Not among the population to lose hope, I went again today. Stood in queue for 1.5 hours, and bought 2 full bottles. They were selling only 1 full bottle to everyone, but since I am a regular customer, they sold me 2, silently.



^ That was the queue after waiting for 1 hour.



^ The reward.

[Oracle]

'God is with us': Many Muslims in Pakistan flout the coronavirus ban in mosques

Former Pakistani cricketer develops symptoms of coronavirus, passes away at 50

One more tests positive for Covid-19 in Assam, count 31

[kato]

Then this is the right time to sell directly to consumers. That is, door delivery to retail customers. They can pivot their model, and if needed tailor the process a bit and survive.

With the limited lockdown we have here - food stores are allowed to open provided they can maintain minimum distance between customers in their shops (which btw includes maximum 5 people in queue) - the direct delivery model doesn't quite work business-wise.

However there's other ideas people get up to:

• Business A is selling drinks out of a warehouse (by the crate, not really individually). It's a family business, they've been doing that kinda thing for 175 years and they actually own their whole place. 70% of their business regularly comes from delivering to restaurants, event venues and other business places. The other 30% come from a shop attached to a warehouse, where they retail to individual customers. Since restaurants are closed, operating event venues is outlawed and many businesses have switched to home office their delivery business is down by 90%.
• Now, suddenly that shop is their main source of income. The shop is allowed to keep operating since as a drinks shop it's considered system-critical business. However, he also has 1-2 employees for the deliveries, who are now sitting idle. While there isn't much free space at his own shop, he also has parking space in front of his warehouse which he can reuse.
• He reaches out to other - smaller - business places in the village who have had their shops closed down and, using their products, expands his range of goods to offer to customers. The other places who now "sell through him" now are a flower and plant shop conveniently located next door and a guy who sells specialty food products ("handmade") and had to close down since he was technically licensed as a restaurant.
• So, basically now his drinks shop has its parking space reused to house a market with two "tent shops", which he can claim to be part of his business to authorities since it's basically also one of his employees who works out there. The two shops have previously switched to direct delivery to customers and have had limited luck with that, but in addition to placing goods at the warehouse can still do that now.
• Secondary benefit for Business A: He can now offer a service where contact-averse people can preorder and he stacks up the crate in front of the warehouse for direct pickup - and since there's now always someone outside there's someone who can watch those goods.