Will SARS make a come back?

[kato]

Is there any source you can share that shows this data ?

It's something you usually only find locally in the countries. Germany publishes number of hospitalisations with its daily bulletins, in France it's a main number published in French-speaking press etc.

What is a bit remarkable when looking at these numbers is that both the hospitalisation rate and the mortality rate among those hospitalised is slowly climbing in Germany too in recent days.

March 23rd : Clinical information for 72.6% of cases / 8.53% hospitalised / 6.13% of hospitalised dead
March 24th : Clinical information for 72.2% of cases / 9.01% hospitalised / 6.39% of hospitalised dead
March 25th : Clinical information for 72.6% of cases / 9.32% hospitalised / 6.98% of hospitalised dead
March 26th : Clinical information for 72.8% of cases / 10.03% hospitalised / 7.43% of hospitalised dead
March 27th : Clinical information for 72.9% of cases / 10.53% hospitalised / 7.80% of hospitalised dead
March 28th : Clinical information for 72.8% of cases / 11.05% hospitalised / 8.32% of hospitalised dead
March 29th : Clinical information for 72.7% of cases / 11.36% hospitalised / 8.97% of hospitalised dead
March 30th : Clinical information for 72.3% of cases / 11.83% hospitalised / 9.28% of hospitalised dead

This might indicate an increasing spread into more vulnerable groups.

[Oracle]

Now this is an interesting bit of news. Japanese researchers have done a mapping of those that had the BCG vaccine to countiries that had vice those that did not have it. They noticed a pattern.

Can a century-old TB vaccine steel the immune system against the new coronavirus? | Science Mag | Mar 23 2020

I think most Indians have had BCG so maybe here's hoping that helps.

I don't think I have had BCG vaccine. I also don't think vaccines like the BCG is very popular amongst Indian muslims. So, there you go.

By most Indians, you mean, a generation after us, and only the rich of our generation and earlier.

[Oracle]

Let me get this straight. You're beating people with a cane that you're holding with bare hands and the cane is touching sweat, saliva, pee, shit ... and you're enforcing COVID-19 distancing?. Just an FYI, short sleeves are not NBC gear.

Sir, a majority of our countrymen understand only caning. The police is caning people, so that they don't drag their ass out of their home, and if they're infected, infect others. That is, community transmission can be minimized, though I doubt it has already happened, just waiting for it to peak.

[kato]

By most Indians, you mean, a generation after us, and only the rich of our generation and earlier.

Oddly over here i'm precisely in the generation that got it (just checked) - for the generation before me i'm moderately sure my father isn't vaccinated against Tb (he was born in WW2), and for the generation after me the national vaccination advisory agency recommends no longer vaccinating against Tb since 1998.

[Double Edge]

I don't think I have had BCG vaccine. I also don't think vaccines like the BCG is very popular amongst Indian muslims. So, there you go.

By most Indians, you mean, a generation after us, and only the rich of our generation and earlier.

If you have a scar on your upper arm you had it. Can't miss it.

I mean people of Shekhar Gupta's generation and on up.

I didn't think people had a choice with this as I understood it to be a universal policy.

Rich or poor does not matter. Muslim or not why would that matter. All would get it at school.

One of the things Gagandeep said is when people had small pox it was considered as a visitation of some demon.

The way they dealt with it was to brand people. That was the exorcism.

This was like 50 - 80 years ago. People are more open to vaccines these days.

BCG was considererd acceptable as it left a scar and to these villagers was like branding.

Maybe tribals never had it but i'd be surprised if people in towns & cities did not get it.

There can always be objections but in a country with TB rampant back in the day what basis would there be to object.

[Double Edge]

It's something you usually only find locally in the countries. Germany publishes number of hospitalisations with its daily bulletins, in France it's a main number published in French-speaking press etc.

What is a bit remarkable when looking at these numbers is that both the hospitalisation rate and the mortality rate among those hospitalised is slowly climbing in Germany too in recent days.

March 23rd : Clinical information for 72.6% of cases / 8.53% hospitalised / 6.13% of hospitalised dead
March 24th : Clinical information for 72.2% of cases / 9.01% hospitalised / 6.39% of hospitalised dead
March 25th : Clinical information for 72.6% of cases / 9.32% hospitalised / 6.98% of hospitalised dead
March 26th : Clinical information for 72.8% of cases / 10.03% hospitalised / 7.43% of hospitalised dead
March 27th : Clinical information for 72.9% of cases / 10.53% hospitalised / 7.80% of hospitalised dead
March 28th : Clinical information for 72.8% of cases / 11.05% hospitalised / 8.32% of hospitalised dead
March 29th : Clinical information for 72.7% of cases / 11.36% hospitalised / 8.97% of hospitalised dead
March 30th : Clinical information for 72.3% of cases / 11.83% hospitalised / 9.28% of hospitalised dead

This might indicate an increasing spread into more vulnerable groups.

Fine but your fatality rate is still lower than France and does not look like its going to climb.

How did Germany protect its vulnerable ? did the old age homes get lock down orders or what.

It's very effective.

[Officer of Engineers]

So long as those cops wash their hands they will be fine.

No, they won't. Both sides are breathing heavy from physical exersion and those ain't N95 masks. They're already contaminated from the detained.

[kato]

How did Germany protect its vulnerable ? did the old age homes get lock down orders or what.

Care homes, hospitals and similar medical institutions immediately issued no-visitor rules nation-wide. Only staff is allowed in. Since then it is only allowed to enter a senior citizen home to visit a person on their deathbed (literally), and even that would be subject to precautions. Most professional nursing care providers that care for people at their private homes operate similarly - no visitors at their offices, no one coming back from a job or going out to the next one gets in or out without desinfection.

However residents can still venture out of their care homes - they're not under lockdown - and that's something that operators running such homes do criticize in public. Some get a bit creative in how to keep the people in their rooms, a local large care home for example now has socalled "garden concerts" where they play classic music on loudspeakers from the garden while people can roll out on balconies "to enjoy spring" ... from their safe isolation.

There are now increasingly outbreaks that are hitting the senior citizen homes though. Usually with over half of residents and staff infected, and 10% fatalities within the first few days.


Privately i would say that most people here are self-isolating to a large extent, and in particular older people. As an example my aunt celebrated her 82nd birthday two weeks ago; out of 20 guests only 9 attended (and only 3 of them over 60), the rest was staying home isolating to protect either themselves or vulnerable people in their household.

[Oracle]

I don't know what the deal is. Maybe proximity to a school means can't sell any. I think the minimum distance is like 500m or something.

Kirana store is a N.Indian term. I don't think we have those in Bangalore. There's these little booths people have and i only see them selling the ciggs. Those guys ain't reopening for a while. So that leaves the small grocery shops & supermarkets

I didn't tell you the best part. You know how these shops are mom & pop jobs as in every one in the family helps out.

So i scored these ciggs from a person who could not have been more than twelve years old. Haggling and all

Just makes you think of the term, not for sale to minors : D

Well, the law never said a minor could not do the selling.

500 mts is for booze shops, maybe ciggi too, IDK. Kirana store is a NI term, but you have them in Bangalore too. The 10000s of Malayalis ration shops, which sell rice, pulses, oil, biscuits, ciggis, onions, potatoes, and everything, except veggies & booze. These shops are basically in the list of essential shops that should remain open, as they sell rice etc. Don't understand why they're not open in Bangalore.

Mom and pop shops are fine, but the law says that a child under the age of 14 can't work. I think that applies to every industry, including retail ones like mom and pop shops. It's another thing, law enforcement is lax in India.

They're thinking of doing that with regular shops i was told today. As in ones that sell food. Only open for a few hours early in the morning. As people aren't cooperating.

If they catch you too far from home in their estimation they don't beat you they just impound your bike !!!

There's all sorts of stories going around. Some one told me a medicine delivery guy with all the badges and paper work got thrashed.

Seven cops got suspended for allowing traffic from TN into the state.

This is creating an artificial shortage for no good reason. What good is it to go to the shop and find the shelves bare because they didn't get supplied ? Not because of panic buying as the PM assured us all essentials would be available.

It means you go to another shop, you stay out longer and every one has to do it. Counter productive.

Btw Carrie Lam wants to ban liquor sales in HK because it alters people's behaviour. So that is the kind of reasoning i think applies to India too.

Regular shops, as in Kirana stores are open here. It's different everywhere, the rules I mean. No state is following Central government's notifications in letter and spirit.

I too read about genuine people out in the open getting beaten up by overzealous police. Bad luck.

Carrie wants to ban booze altogether, or just for now? Dude, we're in a lockdown, WTF might we do drinking at home. Cry, because we're all gonna die?

It's doubtful they will let us out before this thing peaks and that conversation is yet to be had.

I'm going on what the Brits are saying. They expect a peak in May - June and they're a few thousand ahead of us already. Talk going about that the lock down will continue for another twelve weeks in the UK. Which is quite long if you consider Wuhan was locked down, really locked down for two months and a week.

What I think is, and this is purely a hunch, the peak will start after 7th April (7th - 14th). So, in no way will the lockdown end on 15th of April. What might be a blessing is that, states which have lesser number of Covid-19 infections, say for example Assam (for now), might end the lockdown, but continue enforcing sealing off the state's borders with other states, so that no new infections cross the border and come into Assam.

This is why they're clamping down. If people would comply then its easier for all. Any way in Bangalore the cops say everything is available within a km or 2. You don't need to go any further.

I had only 800 bucks with me today morning. A shop near my home was selling smokes. I went in, bought 5 packs, and some biscuits. Money gone. The SBI ATM near my home didn't have any money (for the last 5 days), so I had to walk 2 kms, maybe more, to another ATM to get some cash. I did some accounting, I spent around 10,500 sitting on my ass since Mar 19th. I withdrew another 7500 today.

So I look at how the world handled the influenza crisis a century ago and compare with today and ask where is the difference. Where is the improvement. The story AFAICT is exactly the same.

Quarantine?

[Oracle]

Oddly over here i'm precisely in the generation that got it (just checked) - for the generation before me i'm moderately sure my father isn't vaccinated against Tb (he was born in WW2), and for the generation after me the national vaccination advisory agency recommends no longer vaccinating against Tb since 1998.

Kato, you're living in a developed country. What's normal for you is luxury for most of us here.

[Oracle]

If you have a scar on your upper arm you had it. Can't miss it.

I mean people of Shekhar Gupta's generation and on up.

I didn't think people had a choice with this as I understood it to be a universal policy.

Rich or poor does not matter. Muslim or not why would that matter. All would get it at school.

One of the things Gagandeep said is when people had small pox it was considered as a visitation of some demon.

The way they dealt with it was to brand people. That was the exorcism.

This was like 50 - 80 years ago. People are more open to vaccines these days.

BCG was considererd acceptable as it left a scar and to these villagers was like branding.

Maybe tribals never had it but i'd be surprised if people in towns & cities did not get it.

There can always be objections but in a country with TB rampant back in the day what basis would there be to object.

I have 2 scars on my upper left arm. Mom doesn't remember what they're for. Polio was taken care of through drops. So, what are those for? Maybe they made me invincible.

I said muslims as I didn't know BCG (as you're saying now) was a universal policy. I thought it had to be taken orally and the costs were quite high, and so probably only the wealthy would opt for it. But TB cases are still very high in India, why?

Shekhar Gupta is older than me. :(

[Oracle]

Assam gets its first Covid-19 patient.



This is in my town.

[kato]

Within the local district - 54 towns and villages with about 700,000 people across 1,100 kmē - there are exactly 6 villages that do not have any corona cases yet. They're all located relatively isolated in the rural hills to the east of me and only have populations between 500 and 2000 people each (only one is larger at 4000).

As of three hours ago the same district had 777 Corona cases and 1,709 people in quarantine. 229 people considered "convalesced" and 10 deaths.

[Double Edge]

Let me get this straight. You're beating people with a cane that you're holding with bare hands and the cane is touching sweat, saliva, pee, shit ... and you're enforcing COVID-19 distancing?. Just an FYI, short sleeves are not NBC gear.

No, they won't. Both sides are breathing heavy from physical exersion and those ain't N95 masks. They're already contaminated from the detained.

I was wondering what you meant about NBC and then i realised i've seen this before many times. The guys in white suits

That is what you are referring to. Indian cops should be dressed like that when dealing with such people.

Our doctors have a shortage of PPE. The cops aren't going to get preference.

Clearly nobody has thought of kitting them out with Tyvek suits or whatever closest equivalent.

Those videos are from the north of my state which as far as i know do not have any infections yet.

That video above is when the outbreak is in full swing in China. The province of Jiangsu had 646 cases.

India is still at stage 2. Local transmission. We will only know we entered Stage 3 if its spread over a larger area when testing ramps up soon.

A couple of defence contractors have been assigned the task of creating PPE so hopefully supplies start coming in when things are more advanced than currently.

Being an Indian cop some times means slightly worse than line infantry odds : )

I hope we look after them well, they are literally putting their lives on the line for the greater good.

Not easy treating adults like they were a bunch of kids because otherwise nothing gets through.

[Officer of Engineers]

Clearly nobody has thought of kitting them out with Tyvek suits or whatever closest equivalent.

Chinese copies are litterally $1 a piece. They don't meet NBC requirements but for this specific purpose, they more than suffice. I'm not criticizing the cops. They have a job to do but you think their chief would spring $20 for his men.