Will SARS make a come back?

[kato]

So the mean age of fatalities in Germany is 46. In Italy is 63.

That's the mean ages for corona infections in the two countries, not for fatalities. The mean age of fatalities among Corona patients in Germany is 83, in Italy it's around 80.

So if this is true then there is no standardised way in which countries report their stats.

There is a statistic to look at which is relatively similar in all countries: The mortality rate among those hospitalized after tested positive. There is a runaway effect within this increasing it slightly once ICU patients are triaged for lack of capacity. Italy and hard-hit areas in France are at around 12-13% due to this effect. Published numbers from Hubei were around 10%, Germany is at 8-9%.

Italy since late February only tests to confirm those cases who are hospitalized or otherwise show severe symptoms. Hence light symptom runs are not detected at all in Italy, while in Germany these make up around 85-90% of all cases.

[Oracle]

Well the home delivery ciggy service was unsuccessful at getting a permit as govt did not think they qualified as "essential service"

So i went out and looked around.

Found a provision store with a tobacco license that sold them and now i have more than you : P

After paying a 20% markup : |

Better than previous one i got at least these ones are less than a month old and have the new price on them.

I have no idea where you will get booze but i'm sure the black market will sort it out.

I see about 5% people on the streets, there are cops about but they aren't questioning people or beating them as you see in videos. Over 95% of the people i see moving around are wearing masks. So that is awareness as well as compliance.

Home delivery of ciggi service? Never heard of ciggi being home delivered. Provision store is what a grocery is, if I'm not wrong. Tobacco needs license to be sold?

Lol, you paid 20% markup. Last time I bought, I also paid 10% markup. Now people are buying those at 30-40% more.

Booze is available in black. Wherever there is a booze shop, the people nearby gets to buy them at exorbitant rates. I don't have any shop near my home, so it's risky to travel, buy it and transport it home. Life without alcohol is not that bad afterall.

Anyway, for Indians who're braving the lockdown inside their homes, a few good old soap operas might do you all good. Here is Malgudi Days.

[Oracle]

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[Double Edge]

There is a statistic to look at which is relatively similar in all countries: The mortality rate among those hospitalized after tested positive. There is a runaway effect within this increasing it slightly once ICU patients are triaged for lack of capacity. Italy and hard-hit areas in France are at around 12-13% due to this effect. Published numbers from Hubei were around 10%, Germany is at 8-9%.

Is there any source you can share that shows this data ?

Italy since late February only tests to confirm those cases who are hospitalized or otherwise show severe symptoms. Hence light symptom runs are not detected at all in Italy, while in Germany these make up around 85-90% of all cases.

I heard similar about China after mid Feb. There are at lest 40k more asymptomatic covid positives they tested which did not make the stats.

The probem with the light symptom types is maybe the test kits Italy is using lacks the sensitivity to make a positive ID. Most likely they got false negatives but the doctor suspects they are positive.

Germany is using tests that are more sensitive and of higher specificity. More reliable in distinguishing infected from not infected.

That's the mean ages for corona infections in the two countries, not for fatalities. The mean age of fatalities among Corona patients in Germany is 83, in Italy it's around 80.

If fatalities are so low then Germany is doing a good job isolating its vulnerable. This is something any country can emulate. It costs nothing and saves people from needlessly becoming statistics.

People are afraid, they point to the state of overburdened isolation wards. Afraid they will die alone in some corridor. Well, there are precautions they can take so they or their family never have to see one.

Keep this up and by years end will corona fatalities even be a significant contributor to deaths compared to deaths from other causes in Germany or the US for that matter : )



See how low US & Germany flying there. Waay below the radar. Hugging the deck.

This site only uses Euro data so maybe you find what you mentioned earlier here.



Compare the testing that produces the higher case load in Germany and the fatality rate is going to be under 0.5% for Germany by the end of this crisis.

[Double Edge]

Home delivery of ciggi service? Never heard of ciggi being home delivered. Provision store is what a grocery is, if I'm not wrong. Tobacco needs license to be sold?

Didn't hear of them either. But a few sprung up around the country last year. Here is one in Gauhati. Their twitter has not been updated in a while though so maybe defunct.

Am referring to kirana stores. Some shops sell them and some do not. Why ? Same with super markets.

I assumed a license or permit of some sort is required.

Lol, you paid 20% markup. Last time I bought, I also paid 10% markup. Now people are buying those at 30-40% more.

Until they allow goods through i don't know how things will go. I'm good for a couple of weeks after that it will be an open question.

Booze is available in black. Wherever there is a booze shop, the people nearby gets to buy them at exorbitant rates. I don't have any shop near my home, so it's risky to travel, buy it and transport it home. Life without alcohol is not that bad afterall.

Right, the rule now seems to be you should not be found further than a radius of a kilometer or two from home.

Anyway, for Indians who're braving the lockdown inside their homes, a few good old soap operas might do you all good. Here is Malgudi Days.

Awesome i've not seen these but many people have fond memories of it : )

Mine is an older WW2 movie where Gregory Peck tells his people they are not going to see their family and there is a fight on. He tells them they are already dead. Rallies his people and its based on true story.

Nothing like some positive reinforcement at a time like this : )

[Oracle]

Didn't hear of them either. But a few sprung up around the country last year. Here is one in Gauhati. Their twitter has not been updated in a while though so maybe defunct.

Am referring to kirana stores. Some shops sell them and some do not. Why ? Same with super markets.

I assumed a license or permit of some sort is required.

Small kirana shops also sell ciggis, even tiny pan shops. I don't think selling ciggis need any license. Don't know if supermarkets need licenses. In the UK, the government has declared "off license shops" selling beer/wine/alcohol as essential services, with the understanding that people need to chill in their homes, during a pandemic. When will we F lot get down on moral bullshit. October 2 is dry day, everybody stocks up on booze on October 1. Doesn't make any sense at all. The government isn't earning any significant revenue now. If liquor shops were open, say just for 3 hours everyday, and people were asked to maintain social distancing, people would be happy, and the government would earn much needed excise revenue.

Until they allow goods through i don't know how things will go. I'm good for a couple of weeks after that it will be an open question.

In a couple of weeks the lockdown ends, so you're good for the entire period of lockdown. I am good for another 10 days, then I am done. So, from today I'll have to hop shops which might have them, and pay through my nose to buy them. Another 10 packs and I'm good till 15th-April.

Right, the rule now seems to be you should not be found further than a radius of a kilometer or two from home.

People are moving many kilometers from home. Very few people follow the law.

Awesome i've not seen these but many people have fond memories of it : )

Mine is an older WW2 movie where Gregory Peck tells his people they are not going to see their family and there is a fight on. He tells them they are already dead. Rallies his people and its based on true story.

Nothing like some positive reinforcement at a time like this : )

Will mark it for viewing later. Btw, you should watch Malgudi Days if you fancy simple village life stories of yesteryears.

[Double Edge]

Small kirana shops also sell ciggis, even tiny pan shops. I don't think selling ciggis need any license. Don't know if supermarkets need licenses.

I don't know what the deal is. Maybe proximity to a school means can't sell any. I think the minimum distance is like 500m or something.

Kirana store is a N.Indian term. I don't think we have those in Bangalore. There's these little booths people have and i only see them selling the ciggs. Those guys ain't reopening for a while. So that leaves the small grocery shops & supermarkets

I didn't tell you the best part. You know how these shops are mom & pop jobs as in every one in the family helps out.

So i scored these ciggs from a person who could not have been more than twelve years old. Haggling and all

Just makes you think of the term, not for sale to minors : D

Well, the law never said a minor could not do the selling.

In the UK, the government has declared "off license shops" selling beer/wine/alcohol as essential services, with the understanding that people need to chill in their homes, during a pandemic. When will we F lot get down on moral bullshit. October 2 is dry day, everybody stocks up on booze on October 1. Doesn't make any sense at all. The government isn't earning any significant revenue now. If liquor shops were open, say just for 3 hours everyday, and people were asked to maintain social distancing, people would be happy, and the government would earn much needed excise revenue.

They're thinking of doing that with regular shops i was told today. As in ones that sell food. Only open for a few hours early in the morning. As people aren't cooperating.

If they catch you too far from home in their estimation they don't beat you they just impound your bike !!!

There's all sorts of stories going around. Some one told me a medicine delivery guy with all the badges and paper work got thrashed.

Seven cops got suspended for allowing traffic from TN into the state.

This is creating an artificial shortage for no good reason. What good is it to go to the shop and find the shelves bare because they didn't get supplied ? Not because of panic buying as the PM assured us all essentials would be available.

It means you go to another shop, you stay out longer and every one has to do it. Counter productive.

Btw Carrie Lam wants to ban liquor sales in HK because it alters people's behaviour. So that is the kind of reasoning i think applies to India too.

In a couple of weeks the lockdown ends, so you're good for the entire period of lockdown. I am good for another 10 days, then I am done. So, from today I'll have to hop shops which might have them, and pay through my nose to buy them. Another 10 packs and I'm good till 15th-April.

It's doubtful they will let us out before this thing peaks and that conversation is yet to be had.

I'm going on what the Brits are saying. They expect a peak in May - June and they're a few thousand ahead of us already. Talk going about that the lock down will continue for another twelve weeks in the UK. Which is quite long if you consider Wuhan was locked down, really locked down for two months and a week.

People are moving many kilometers from home. Very few people follow the law.

This is why they're clamping down. If people would comply then its easier for all. Any way in Bangalore the cops say everything is available within a km or 2. You don't need to go any further.

Will mark it for viewing later. Btw, you should watch Malgudi Days if you fancy simple village life stories of yesteryears.

So I look at how the world handled the influenza crisis a century ago and compare with today and ask where is the difference. Where is the improvement. The story AFAICT is exactly the same.

[Oracle]

:D :D :D

[Oracle]

Covid-19 has been a blessing in disguise for the Modi government, partly. Those stupid protestors of the CAA were finally sent home, some were detained. They were not ready for any negotiation even with Supreme court mandated negotiators blocking roads, affecting lives of common citizens. Had I been the area SI, I would have caned and dispersed these idiots long back.

[Oracle]

Very good. Excellent.

[Officer of Engineers]

Let me get this straight. You're beating people with a cane that you're holding with bare hands and the cane is touching sweat, saliva, pee, shit ... and you're enforcing COVID-19 distancing?. Just an FYI, short sleeves are not NBC gear.

[Double Edge]

Right, second video from the northern area of my state. Friend sent me this one few days back

Not a single one of them is wearing a mask. So there is zero awareness in that community.

Now they know

Very good. Excellent.

This happens when you have clearance from the top. Will we see similar videos from the neighbouring states ? or only people in my state like to defy the govt.

I'm sure the cops released most of those videos through whatsapp and they ended up in that talkies channel. The camera angles are very good aren't they. Puts you right in the middle of the action : )

The govt is slowly learning to use social media. Using it to instill fear in the people in the hopes they comply

[Double Edge]

Let me get this straight. You're beating people with a cane that you're holding with bare hands and the cane is touching sweat, saliva, pee, shit ... and you're enforcing COVID-19 distancing?

So long as those cops wash their hands they will be fine.

These areas likely don't have any cases yet. Hopefully it stays that way.

Just an FYI, short sleeves are not NBC gear.

Its pretty hot here right now. And there is a shortage of PPE & masks so doctors are being told to make do with what they have.

Defense contractors have been roped into making them so hopefully supplies come out in a few weeks time.

[Double Edge]

The Czech republic has made wearing masks mandatory. I expect they will peak and flatten faster than the rest of the EU.

[Double Edge]

Now this is an interesting bit of news. Japanese researchers have done a mapping of those that had the BCG vaccine to countiries that had vice those that did not have it. They noticed a pattern.

Can a century-old TB vaccine steel the immune system against the new coronavirus? | Science Mag | Mar 23 2020

A team in the Netherlands will kick off the first of the trials this week. They will recruit 1000 health care workers in eight Dutch hospitals who will either receive the vaccine, called bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), or a placebo.

The team may have answers within a few months.

I think most Indians have had BCG so maybe here's hoping that helps.