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[Albany Rifles]

[Versus]

First the invasion of giant spiders now this
https://wegotthiscovered.com/movies/...kanda-forever/

[Versus]

Well it appears that drama has ended. Its not official yet and photograph needs to be authenticated.

[Versus]

Nope, the photo is dismissed as fake, the hunt is still on.

[JRT]

18 November 2022
Russian documentary claims Moscow has organised mass "adoptions" of children forcibly taken from Ukraine

Prominent Russian bloggers have begun circulating a multi-part documentary series with images of Ukrainian children who have allegedly been adopted into Russian families.

...

Russia’s Demographic Collapse Is Accelerating
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 19 Issue: 127
By: Paul Goble
August 18, 2022

Most countries are slowly recovering from the disastrous demographic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, but Russia is not. Instead, as new data shows, the Russian Federation has resumed its long-term demographic decline (see EDM, September 13, 2016), a trend likely to intensify and profoundly affect not only the country’s self-image but also its prospects for economic recovery and fielding a large military (see EDM, July 16, 2020).

The Kremlin is currently casting about for ways to limit or reverse this trend, but financial constraints—many of which arise from President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and ideological blinders affecting much of the Russian leadership—are preventing Moscow from making real progress, according to independent demographers. Indeed, the problem has grown so large and is approaching so rapidly that many commentators are suggesting that the situation will soon be worse than during the disastrous 1990s (Nakanune.ru, August 9), and at least one analyst has declared the country will reach “a perfect storm” demographically by the end of this year or the beginning of next (Svoboda.org, August 9). As a result, Russia runs the very real risk that this demographic crisis will soon become a political one as well.

Aleksey Raksha, an independent Russian demographer and perhaps the closest Russian counterpart to the late US expert Murray Feshbach, provides the most comprehensive discussion of these developments. He relies exclusively on the first results of the latest census, which were released earlier this summer (Vedomosti.ru, April 8), and a broader selection of demographic data that Rosstat, the Russian government’s statistical arm, has now released (Rosstat.gov.ru, August 2022), making it far harder for his words to be dismissed. The situation he outlines is devastating (Svoboda.org, August 9).

During the first five months of 2022, Russia’s population fell by 430,000, which far exceeded the figure for the same period in 2021 and one that points to another decline of more than one million people for 2022 as a whole. The 2021 figure reflects both the relationship of births and deaths among the permanent population and the size of migration flows. Last year, in-migration partially compensated for the greater number of deaths as compared to births, but this year, it has not. Instead, increased out-migration has contributed to the total population decline. The opening of the country to in-migration after the pandemic may lead to a slight improvement in the second half of 2022, but that will not be enough to compensate for the indigenous decline continuing into 2023 and throughout the coming decade (Osnmedia.ru, July 26).

Raksha points out he is not suggesting war losses or war-driven emigration are to blame. According to him, neither has been large enough to affect overall demographic figures, although they may hit certain age groups harder than others—though some observers strongly disagree and suggest that emigration is removing many women in prime child-bearing age cohorts from Russia (Yakutsk.ru, August 10). The Russian demographer is also dismissive of those who say recent increases in death rates are the result of Putin’s healthcare optimization program, which has left many Russians without access to medical treatment (Nakanune.ru, April 7).

What has mattered, Raksha says, are three other factors: the continuing trend among Russians to have fewer children; the government’s reduction in pro-natalist policies, or even their outright cancellation given financial exigencies; and fears among many Russians about the future given economic problems and the war. Not only are these driving down the fertility rate to lows not seen in peacetime before, but they are also combining to reduce the future number of women who might bear children in the future, thus limiting the ability of the country to escape these problems. The number in this cohort is now declining at a rate of 3 percent annually.

Given that fertility rates are now well below replacement levels—it has fallen below 1.5 children per woman, far below the 2.2 children needed to maintain the population at existing levels—Russia’s total population will decline. In truth, unless immigration swells to politically dangerous levels, Moscow invests far more in promoting larger families than simply restoring the Soviet-era practice of awarding “hero mother status” to women with large families or the Kremlin occupies the territory of some of its neighbors and absorbs their populations, this outlook will not change. In pointing to the third possibility, Raksha notes it is often forgotten that Moscow now counts the population of Ukraine’s Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, when it talks about population increases since the 2010 census.

The independent demographer also points to another statistical quirk that Moscow is exploiting to make its reported figures look better than they are, and one that ignores why any current improvement will not last. During the first five months of 2022, mortality rates declined slightly, but that almost certainly reflects the fact that many who might have survived into 2022 without a pandemic died in 2021 or 2020 before from COVID-19.

If one takes that into consideration, it means Russia will not be able to count on a significant decline in death rates in the future. Instead, it may face an increase, especially if healthcare cannot keep up with the problems of an aging population and the possible spread of new diseases. That in turn may pull down life expectancies given that additional improvements in infant and child mortality, which have the greatest impact on death rates, appear unlikely, as those figures have become extremely low (Ach.gov.ru, 2020; Datatopics.worldbank.org, accessed August 16).

Many Russians see three other demographic trends as incredibly threatening. First, new census data shows that the only regions naturally growing in number are non-Russian ones. All predominantly ethnic Russian areas are declining; something that means the country is becoming ever less ethnically Russian (Capost.media, April 5, 2021). Second, relative to other countries, a large share of deaths in Russia are among its working-age males, hurting the economy and birth rates (Finanz.ru, February 16, 2021). Third, and certainly most immediately important to Putin, the number of men of prime draft age is falling rapidly. According to one estimate, maintaining the Russian army at its current size through 2032 will require Moscow to increase the share of men enlisted from the current rate of 6.31 percent to 8.01 percent down the road. While this could limit military options, it will beyond a doubt hit the economy, which will lack new workers unless migration increases radically. This is an unattractive option as far as many Russians are concerned (Versia.ru, February 22, 2021).

It is often wisely said that demography is destiny but only in the long term. In Russia’s case, that term may be far shorter than anyone might have expected.

...

[Amled]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...mmer-kr6tfr7vc

Wagner Group sends EU Parliament a message with ‘bloodied’ hammer!

I suppose that this is one way “Wagner” strong-man Yevgeny Prigozhin has of giving the EU Parliament the finger!!!

[Officer of Engineers]

It's now 22:20 EST, only 1 hour and 40 minutes left so Mariah Carey can shut the hell up for the rest of the year.

[Monash]

It's now 22:20 EST, only 1 hour and 40 minutes left so Mariah Carey can shut the hell up for the rest of the year.

There's always your 'special little angel' to think about through the long cold winter nights ahead Colonel. Merry Xmas BTW.

[Officer of Engineers]

There's always your 'special little angel' to think about through the long cold winter nights ahead Colonel.

So the old nightmare before Christmas.

Merry Xmas BTW.

It was until you put that picture in my head.

[Versus]

Serbian temporal distortion..we have it before the launch.
https://videocardz.com/newz/nvidia-g...400-us-dollars

[Gun Grape]

Merry Christmas Wabbits

[Versus]

Silent hill scene after the train accident in which resulted in ammonia spill in southern Serbia. On the other hand, on the north, at the Kosovo border we have our favorite "Patriotic games".
https://apnews.com/article/nato-serb...b3bf14896ccdf1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shKyQqe2YOs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBx5lutsoAw

[Versus]

Happy New Year Wabbists, in hope that 2023 will be less interesting than 2022.

[Officer of Engineers]

Question to the pro builders here?

How much do you save by not meeting code? A new neighbour (relatively speaking farm wise) needs to spend over $100K to bring his addition (built by previous owner) up to code. Now, most of it involves ripping out walls to properly wire and pipe the place but a new support beam needs to be installed as well but aside from the beam, I can't imagine total material cost would be over $1K in meeting code. Running wires and pipes properly can't add that much labour cost, especially in a new build. Ok, support beam wise might be $2K but overall, I can't imagine $5K savings in going off code.

Makes no sense to me to risk fire and plumbing hazzards in saving $5K in a $150K+ new build unless there is further savings in going off code.

[Gun Grape]

Question to the pro builders here?

How much do you save by not meeting code? A new neighbour (relatively speaking farm wise) needs to spend over $100K to bring his addition (built by previous owner) up to code. Now, most of it involves ripping out walls to properly wire and pipe the place but a new support beam needs to be installed as well but aside from the beam, I can't imagine total material cost would be over $1K in meeting code. Running wires and pipes properly can't add that much labour cost, especially in a new build. Ok, support beam wise might be $2K but overall, I can't imagine $5K savings in going off code.

Makes no sense to me to risk fire and plumbing hazards in saving $5K in a $150K+ new build unless there is further savings in going off code.

Before the housing boom,an average builder would charge Materials X 3 or X 5 depending on design, location, cost of labor, cost of permits ect...

Don't build to code and lots of bad things can happen

Its an addition, if there is a insurance claim (Flooding/Fire/Wind damage) Insurance will not cover any of the structure. Whole house become "Not built to code".

Depending where you live, If permits weren't pulled, work inspected than when the local building authority finds out. They can make you rip everything out, charge a large fine and here charge triple for the new permit.

In my old State, they would make the person demolish anything not permitted (Code or not) and start from scratch

Here if the homeowner is doing their own work, the Building Inspectors will offer lots of help on how you have to each part that requires a permit (Everything) and what they look for during their inspection.

Really doesn't make sense to not build to code. Doesn't take much to google local/National codes to see what materials you need.

Electricians and plumbers are not the big cost. Should have at least hired them. Heck 2 of the electrical companies here will come inspect your work, to make sure its up to code and only charge a service call.

so the long answer is you don't save anything by not building to code. But you can lose a lot when the pipes burst/leak because you used thin pipe/no insulation or an electrical fire starts because you used undersized wires for the load