Elon Musk & Tesla Omnibus Thread

[tantalus]

Battery cost decline and the speed of manufacturing are the key things here for me. The only think that will slow the disruption of the legacy automakers is the fact that it takes time to build factories and ramp production, and crucially and most importantly build the batteries, it will take 2 decades in fact. It's only a few years until battery costs make the bumper price ticket equivalent and electric is already cheaper to run year by year. If the cost of battery production continues to decline at its current rate than this game is effectively over. And why shouldnt it, battery tech is a new technology (unlike ICE which is mature) that will continue to innovate and it has no scale, price comes down purely with scale. And batteries are by far the main cost of electric vehicles, that is where the margins are. All this will render the legacy automaker timelines irrelevelant by the time we actually get to them. Some of them will survive, some of them won't, mergers and partnerships to cope with the massive R and D budgets and cross field expertise.

But I do agree that self driving is where the real show is. And the software skills that goes with turning a car into a giant smart phone. The legacy automakers lack the skills here. We should expect to see other tech companies come into this space, the legacy automakers wlll be sucked up for their manufacturing experience and the their exisiting manufacturing capacity will be crucial, however many of their assets and long and complex supply chains will become stranded and useless.

Because Self driving actually allows a car to be used for many hours it would have been previously been parked, it will be possible to leverage the value locked into the battery tech that allows a car to run for a million miles. At the moment there isnt an advantage to having a car be able to drive 5 times longer over its life beacuse you cant build a market place where people pay 5 times more for the car upfront. The fact the car is cheaper to maintain and cheaper to run per mile is also a hard selling point in an industry where its the price you pay upfront that matters the most. But it will be music to the ears for companies that operate self driving fleets and have massive access to capital. Self driving and electric are syngerisitc in generating value from each other in ways that ICE and self driving are not.

Another interesting development will be smart insurance. Once the car is smart, they can harvest your data to factor in how long you drive for, average speeds, night vs day time driving, dangerous routes, more dangerous climates, your handling skills and offer insurance tailored to you, if you get better at driving, starting cycling to work, your insurance will drop in price. This all puts legacy auto under massive pressure to adapt. This era may be short lived depending on how long it takes for self driving to fully break through, but its a nice example of how data will change the world and generate massive value to the consumer.

[tbm3fan]

This little graph shows that cars will disappear from GM probably quite sometime before 2035 as consumers are moving away in lightning speed.

[JRT]

This little graph shows that cars will disappear from GM probably quite sometime before 2035 as consumers are moving away in lightning speed.

In the list below, notice that there is not one Tesla, and the thee best selling vehicles are full size pickup trucks, followed by two compact crossover utility wagons.

25 Best-Selling Cars, Trucks, and SUVs of 2020
It was a bumpy road for auto sales at times due to the coronavirus pandemic, but we've tallied up the top sellers.

BY JOEY CAPPARELLA
JAN 6, 2021
best selling cars, trucks, suvs of 2020CAR AND DRIVER
U.S. auto sales were looking good for the first few months of 2020—until the COVID-19 pandemic interrupted many aspects of daily life in our country. Automakers have now reported sales numbers for the entire year, and they were a mixed bag. Due to a stoppage in sales during the second half of March, the numbers were rocky throughout April, May, and June but then then began to show signs of improvement later, in the third and fourth quarters. We've now tallied up the 25 best-selling cars, trucks, and SUVs through all of 2020, which—predictably—is a list full of SUVs and trucks, along with a smattering of cars.

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25. Toyota 4Runner (129,052 units sold)
Rugged is in, and the Toyota 4Runner sold well in 2020 despite being an old-school, body-on-frame SUV that has been around in its current form for nearly a decade. Sales were down just 2 percent compared with 2019.
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24. Ford Transit (131,556 units sold)
Ford is doing well in the van business with the Transit, which comes in passenger and cargo forms. Still, numbers were down 15 percent compared to 2019.
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23. Jeep Cherokee (135,855 units sold)
Despite declining 29 percent compared with 2019, the Jeep Cherokee maintained midpack status in the compact-crossover sales race. It's far from leaders such as the Honda CR-V and Toyota RAV4 but in the mix with secondary players such as the CX-5 and Tucson.
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22. Nissan Altima (137,988 units sold)
Altima sold more units than the Honda Accord in the first quarter, but a weak second quarter saw it drop further down the chart. Nissan's mid-size sedan ended up being down 34 percent compared with 2019.
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21. Mazda CX-5 (146,420 units sold)
Mazda's top seller (and one of our 10Best winners) is now firmly embedded the top 25 overall. Its sales declined just 5.3 percent in 2020, a smaller dip than many competitors.
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20. Subaru Outback (153,294 units sold)
The Outback is the only station wagon that sells in significant numbers in the U.S. Despite a 15 percent decline compared with 2019, it made its way into the top 25.
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19. Subaru Forester (176,996 units sold)
The Forester is the best-selling Subaru model, and its numbers were were only down by 2 percent in 2020. That's an impressive result given that many competitors declined by double digits.
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18. Ford Escape (178,496 units sold)
The Escape fell far behind the top compact crossovers in sales in 2020, with a 26 percent decline overall.
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17. Honda Accord (199,458 units sold)
Sales of the Accord haven't been at their best for some time now, and it declined by 26 percent in 2020. Regardless, we still love this 10Best-winning sedan and recommend it without hesitation.
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16. Jeep Wrangler (201,311 units sold)
Coming off a strong 2019, Jeep Wrangler were somewhat soft in 2020, with a 12 percent decrease overall.
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15. Jeep Grand Cherokee (209,786 units sold)
The Grand Cherokee remains the best-selling Jeep, but its numbers have fallen along with other Jeep models (and most models in the industry, to be fair). Sales were down 14 percent compared with 2019.
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14. Toyota Highlander (212,276 units sold)
The Highlander went up several spots in this year's ranking, but it did not quite catch the Ford Explorer to become the best-selling three-row SUV. Sales were down 11 percent overall.
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13. Ford Explorer (226,217 units sold)
The Explorer is once again the best-selling three-row SUV in America. It was one of the few models to be up this year, as sales rose 21 percent compared with 2019, when Ford was struggling with the initial sales launch of this new model.
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12. Nissan Rogue (227,935 units sold)
There was a time when the Nissan Rogue sat atop the sales chart for non-pickups. But no longer, as it's been far surpassed by competitors such as the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V despite a successful redesign for 2021. Sales were down 35 percent.
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11. Toyota Corolla (237,178 units sold)
The Corolla compact sedan and hatchback saw a 22 percent decrease in sales compared with 2019.
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10. Toyota Tacoma (238,806 units sold)
The smaller of Toyota's two pickups is more popular by far than its Tundra big sibling. The Tacoma dropped only 4 percent compared with 2019.
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9. GMC Sierra (253,016 units sold)
The Sierra had a relatively strong year, even more so than its Chevy Silverado stablemate. It was one of the few bright spots in the industry, with sales going up 9 percent compared with 2019.
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8. Honda Civic (261,225 units sold)
The Civic was down 20 percent through 2020, which is less of a decrease than its competitor the Toyota Corolla, which was down 22 percent.
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7. Chevrolet Equinox (270,994 units sold)
Sales of the Equinox were down 22 percent in 2020, and GM also announced that the recently revealed 2021 update for this crossover will now be delayed until the 2022 model year.
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6. Toyota Camry (294,348 units sold)
The Camry retained its best-selling passenger-car title this year, despite a 13 percent drop in 2020. That's less of a decline than its arch-rival the Honda Accord experienced.
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5. Honda CR-V (333,502 units sold)
The recently updated CR-V experienced a 13 percent drop in sales in 2020. A new hybrid model went on sale in March.
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4. Toyota RAV4 (430,387 units sold)
The RAV4 somehow managed to pull off an increase through the first three months of 2020, but ended up with a slight decrease of 4 percent once all the numbers were tallied. It was still the best-selling non-pickup in the country by a wide margin.
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3. Ram Pickup (563,676 units sold)
Pickup trucks were among the few models to increase in sales in the first quarter, but the later quarters were not as strong for Ram's full-size lineup, which decreased 11 percent compared with 2019. After beating out the Chevy Silverado in 2019 sales, the Ram went back to its typical third-place spot in 2020.
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2. Chevrolet Silverado Pickup (586,675 units sold)
Chevy somehow managed to move more Silverados in 2020 than it did in 2019. By the end of the year, the light-duty model was down just 0.5 percent while the heavy-duty trucks increased by 14 percent.
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1. Ford F-Series Pickup (787,422 units sold)
Ford's perennially best-selling pickups did not increase its sales in 2020. But they managed to hang on to the top spot despite an 12 percent decrease compared with 2019.
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[kato]

In the list below, notice that there is not one Tesla, and the thee best selling vehicles are full size pickup trucks, followed by two compact crossover utility wagons.

In Europe Tesla does not appear within the Top 50 - not quite sure whether they'd be in the Top 100 either. Best-selling electric car in Europe is the Renault Zoe, with a market share of around 0.8% (about 10% among electric car models - ahead of the Tesla 3, which accumulated 80% of its sales in only two European countries).

Pickup trucks and related utility vehicles are virtually irrelevant in the European consumer market. Compact crossover SUVs are making some inroads in recent years.

[tbm3fan]

Pickup trucks and related utility vehicles are virtually irrelevant in the European consumer market. Compact crossover SUVs are making some inroads in recent years.

What!? Europeans don't have the need to show how macho they are through a truck? They also don't have the dream, and it is just a dream, to take a truck or CUV off road to explore the wilderness?

I'll be damned!

Or is the price of gas the reason to keep that in check, for most, unlike here in the U.S.? Although narrow roads and places to park factor in. However, I know Europeans like to collect big American iron and drive them. Is that more of a disposable income thing? Can't you see yourself in a big F-450 Ford truck or Expedition driving the back roads of Bavaria?

[kato]

They also don't have the dream, and it is just a dream, to take a truck or CUV off road to explore the wilderness?

Not much wilderness to be had here - you literally can't drive 5 miles from anywhere in any direction without being in the next town.

In Gemany pickup truck sales are somewhere around 0.7% of the market, with pretty much only midsize pickups sold in Europe. One-quarter of that is Ford Rangers, the rest is evenly split between Fiat Fullback (rebranded Mitsubishi L200 / Ram 1200), Renault Alaskan (rebranded Nissan Navara), VW Amarok and Toyota Hilux. Production of some of these was cancelled by their companies without a replacement model in 2020.

[tbm3fan]

Not much wilderness to be had here - you literally can't drive 5 miles from anywhere in any direction without being in the next town.

In Gemany pickup truck sales are somewhere around 0.7% of the market, with pretty much only midsize pickups sold in Europe. One-quarter of that is Ford Rangers, the rest is evenly split between Fiat Fullback (rebranded Mitsubishi L200 / Ram 1200), Renault Alaskan (rebranded Nissan Navara), VW Amarok and Toyota Hilux. Production of some of these was cancelled by their companies without a replacement model in 2020.

I seem to remember open land south of Munich in 1976 when I traveled through to Salzburg before going into Switzerland.

[kato]

I seem to remember open land south of Munich in 1976 when I traveled through to Salzburg before going into Switzerland.

Upper Bavaria is roughly twice as densely settled as New York State.

Only wilderness in Bavaria is the mountain range along both sides of the Czech border - a national park in both countries. When i was there the last time five years ago they had parking meters along the roads in the middle of the forest.

[tbm3fan]

Toyota reverses course.

Toyota Motor Corp. plans to begin selling a pair of battery-powered vehicles in the U.S. this year, revising a wait-and-see approach to gauge Americans’ demand for wholly electric cars and trucks.

The Japanese automaker said Wednesday it will start selling the unnamed EVs and an unspecified plug-in hybrid model, adding to a lineup with several gas-electric hybrids that accounted for almost one-fifth of its total U.S. deliveries last year.

Toyota withdrew from EVs in the U.S. seven years ago when it ceased production of an all-electric version of its best-selling RAV4 crossover sport-utility vehicle. The company sells limited numbers of a fuel-cell-powered sedan called the Mirai, but its executives in the U.S. said as recently as last year that they haven’t seen enough demand to justify a broader lineup of battery-powered models.

The move to expand beyond hybrids represents a reversal of that cautious stance and comes at a time when rivals such as General Motors Co. are planning dozens of EVs and aiming to cease output of gasoline-powered vehicles entirely by 2035.

Toyota said 25% of its new-vehicle sales will be electrified by 2025 -- not far from what it expects to sell this year. But it added that the share will rise to almost 70% by 2030. The carmaker is developing a BEV platform called e-TNGA that it can use for multiple models.

The company’s renewed push into all-electrics in the U.S. follows President Joe Biden’s efforts to speed adoption of EVs. Toyota was among the last automakers to withdraw its support for former President Donald Trump’s effort to prevent California from continuing to set its own, tougher, emissions standards.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s?srnd=premium

[kato]

A bit unrelated (hey, there's an omnibus in the thread title... and yes, i speak latin) - but my local public transit company has been testing electric busses of various models and various recharge systems in the last couple years. Most recent project started is testing autonomous battery-electric busses locally in "real" traffic of a type for which a prototype installation is being run in Abu Dhabi.

End result is that they will not purchase battery-powered electric busses beyond those bought in the last couple years for trials with the oncoming fleet renewal, but instead opt for hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. We're talking about a mid-sized fleet of about 180 busses inhouse. The battery-powered vehicles are just too costly for any sort of professional commercial use (mostly due to recharge time, which means you need to buy between one-quarter and one-third more vehicles to make up for this "downtime"), whereas fuel cells are minimal additional costs over diesel, mostly one-off in infrastructure investment.

[astralis]

in terms of volume, Tesla globally produced 250K vehicles in 2018, 375K in 2019, 510K vehicles in 2020. Musk says his goal is 20 million/yr, 10 years from now.

by comparison, Toyota made 8 million this year.

Tesla's growth in volume is impressive. but from my own personal consumer standpoint, I'd like to see better quality control. I'd be interested in getting a Model Y if the quality improves and the US GREEN Act passes (7K tax credit, introduced in the House 2 days ago).

[Albany Rifles]

Or is the price of gas the reason to keep that in check, for most, unlike here in the U.S.? Although narrow roads and places to park factor in. However, I know Europeans like to collect big American iron and drive them. Is that more of a disposable income thing? Can't you see yourself in a big F-450 Ford truck or Expedition driving the back roads of Bavaria?

In the early 80s when I was stationed in Germany I had a squad leader who had a big honking pickup truck with saddle tanks...we are talking like 65 gallons worth of fuel.

He'd eat up an entire month's ration book it seemed every time he filled it.

The only reason he probably was able to afford it was we spent so much time in the field he hardly got a chance to drive it.

He had to park it in the post RV lost cause the company commander said it was too big park on company street. We couldn't get our tracks by it when we had alerts.

[kato]

There are exactly two pickup trucks that i see regularly in my neighborhood:

• one is owned by a place half a mile away that sells garden plants - they use it to transport small trees and such (they also have other specialized vehicles, such as a small quad-sized tractor for services at a cemetary with its narrow paths).
• the other belongs to the municipal company contracted to clean up the neighborhood tram stop, with a trash dump and various gear mounted in the truckbed.

Privately owned pickup trucks? Exactly zero. At least since the Americans moved out ten years ago, before that mid-sized stuff like a Fort F-150 or Dodge Ram could be sighted.

In general even for commercial purposes light flatbed trucks tend to be far more common. They largely function the same, although are less "sports vehicle" in comparison to US-style pickups. For anything "lighter" companies tend to buy vans, one reason i've heard cited on that is the weather.

[astralis]

well, I did it: I'm going to blow quite a sum on the Model Y. had a fun test drive the other day. interesting to read the first posts on this thread from 2016 to see what has, and has not, changed.

[tbm3fan]

There are exactly two pickup trucks that i see regularly in my neighborhood:

• one is owned by a place half a mile away that sells garden plants - they use it to transport small trees and such (they also have other specialized vehicles, such as a small quad-sized tractor for services at a cemetary with its narrow paths).
• the other belongs to the municipal company contracted to clean up the neighborhood tram stop, with a trash dump and various gear mounted in the truckbed.

Privately owned pickup trucks? Exactly zero. At least since the Americans moved out ten years ago, before that mid-sized stuff like a Fort F-150 or Dodge Ram could be sighted.

In general even for commercial purposes light flatbed trucks tend to be far more common. They largely function the same, although are less "sports vehicle" in comparison to US-style pickups. For anything "lighter" companies tend to buy vans, one reason i've heard cited on that is the weather.

You are describing America in 1968 when it comes to trucks.