Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Cold War 2.0: US-China

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #31
    I would encourage people to take a leap forward and guess what the world could look like in 2030-2040. No doubt american dominance remains for the short through medium term, even with coronavirus.

    The future will not be nukes or aircraft carriers. In will be cyber, advanced a.i., quantum computing and emerging disruptive industries centred on digital, robotic and green energy applications. China has and will steal the knowledge, they dont need to capture silicon valley with boots on the ground, or capture the oil fields of saudi arabia, they wont even need a large percentage of the worlds talent, just their intellectual property. They can focus their resources efficiently and leapfrog america to the future, skipping whole social economic trends and reach the end point first.

    I also suggest that A.I will be like nothing we have seen before, intelligence beyond human capability, augmented and fused with humans, far more powerful than any tecnology and rapidly transforming all domains, social, economic and military, if the chinese are willing to pursue these technologies no matter the cost and risk with great speed, we risk being outflanked by the CCP.

    If the CCP dont moderate and become more extreme in their world view, the risks will be very grave. We have become complacent assuming that we will always live in a world shaped by the united states and the principles they cherish. And that a risk of a dark world died in 44, 45 and 89. Given enough time, if the power continues to concentrate with the CCP and the wrong people within that party, and they continue to make the correct conccenrated economic and technology bets we will have an adversary worthy of the soviet union of 1950 and one that may dwarf it.

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by tantalus View Post
      I would encourage people to take a leap forward and guess what the world could look like in 2030-2040.
      This dinosaur would suggest you wouldn't try to look that far. In my day, we only saw two options. A continued Cold War with hot brush wars around the globe (Vietnam and Soviet Afghanistan galore) OR WWIII. None of us saw the collapse of the USSR even three years before it happenned.

      None of us foreseen Tienamen Square and then none of us foreseen Chinese students democratic dreams being bought out by CCP dollars.

      About the only thing that I can say for certain is that any advance enough AI would sooner or later logic it out that the human race is just too ludicrous to be ruuning the world.

      All hail our Lord and Master Skynet.

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        Letting them into the WTO in 2001 was not with that aim in mind ?
        The New Opium Wars. Getting them into the WTO was in an attempt to get fair trade practices into China and hence, dollars out of China.

        Comment


        • #34
          It always amazes me how few people realize that post-1978, China did everything the West demanded.

          It deregulated, decentralized, democratized -- yes, there was a one-man dictatorship prior to that, and a collective leadership with regular elections (albeit inside the party) afterwards -- liberalized, and opened up to the world.

          But, they didn't just blindly follow advice that was more corporate than diplomatic. They didn't, for example, follow the Japan model and wreck the economy through massive currency manipulation. They didn't follow the Korean model and develop the economy on the back of massive foreign currency loans. Rather, they followed the Taiwan model and kept key components (finance, agriculture) under state control while letting foreign equity pay for the nation's development.

          Before someone insists that only a wumao could write such a thing, read some history with an open mind.
          Trust me?
          I'm an economist!

          Comment


          • #35
            the issue is not post-1978, the issue is post-2013.

            IE the world could, and did, live with Jiang Zemin's China and Hu Jintao's China.

            Xi Jinping has completely changed the calculus-- not just with the US, but with India, Japan, Australia, even the -EU-.

            he's changed it so much that people are now wondering if the China hawks weren't right all along, and that everything post-1978 was a mistake just because of Xi.
            There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by astralis View Post
              the issue is not post-1978, the issue is post-2013.

              IE the world could, and did, live with Jiang Zemin's China and Hu Jintao's China.

              Xi Jinping has completely changed the calculus-- not just with the US, but with India, Japan, Australia, even the -EU-.

              he's changed it so much that people are now wondering if the China hawks weren't right all along, and that everything post-1978 was a mistake just because of Xi.
              What's the likelihood that Xi resigns and lets a more collaborative leader take over? I think the annual retreat of the senior CCP leadership is about to happen. What can we expect from that? Surely Xi will face pressure for all that's transpired.

              Comment


              • #37
                absolutely none.

                there's some grumbling within the rest of the elite but nothing severe enough for an outright challenge. no real potential challenger to rally around either.
                There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by astralis View Post
                  absolutely none.

                  there's some grumbling within the rest of the elite but nothing severe enough for an outright challenge. no real potential challenger to rally around either.
                  ^^^^
                  What he said.
                  Trust me?
                  I'm an economist!

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by DOR View Post
                    It always amazes me how few people realize that post-1978, China did everything the West demanded.

                    It deregulated, decentralized, democratized -- yes, there was a one-man dictatorship prior to that, and a collective leadership with regular elections (albeit inside the party) afterwards -- liberalized, and opened up to the world.

                    But, they didn't just blindly follow advice that was more corporate than diplomatic. They didn't, for example, follow the Japan model and wreck the economy through massive currency manipulation. They didn't follow the Korean model and develop the economy on the back of massive foreign currency loans. Rather, they followed the Taiwan model and kept key components (finance, agriculture) under state control while letting foreign equity pay for the nation's development.

                    Before someone insists that only a wumao could write such a thing, read some history with an open mind.
                    What Astralis said. Overall I would say it was all going well until it didn't. And it can still work out but now its an open question. Sometimes you can make the right decisions and still get the wrong outcome.

                    And to add, one of the reasons I fear China so much is because I have much respect and reverence for much of their execution, they understand enigineering and science, they understand the trends and have the patience and resolve to get there. What has become unclear is what will really be their social model/world view and if they can sustain it politically and socially...

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by hboGYT View Post
                      What's the likelihood that Xi resigns and lets a more collaborative leader take over? I think the annual retreat of the senior CCP leadership is about to happen. What can we expect from that? Surely Xi will face pressure for all that's transpired.
                      He is 67, thats your best chance

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                        This dinosaur would suggest you wouldn't try to look that far. In my day, we only saw two options. A continued Cold War with hot brush wars around the globe (Vietnam and Soviet Afghanistan galore) OR WWIII. None of us saw the collapse of the USSR even three years before it happenned.

                        None of us foreseen Tienamen Square and then none of us foreseen Chinese students democratic dreams being bought out by CCP dollars.
                        Totally agree. But it goes both ways. Now might be a good time to imagine some worst case scenarios and start placing some more determined bets on key technologies.

                        Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post

                        About the only thing that I can say for certain is that any advance enough AI would sooner or later logic it out that the human race is just too ludicrous to be ruuning the world.

                        All hail our Lord and Master Skynet.
                        Ha, Yes that may be a valid conclusion.

                        But from our perspective it's called the control problem and its unclear if it will be solved on the way to developing the a.i. or if it needs to be developed adjacently. Its also unclear if it is easier or more difficult than simply develpong the ai. Global cooperation is a mess but ideally the world would begin an equivalent of the manhattan project to solve the control problem first, and even slow a.i. research if we think we are getting close until the control problem is resolved. We would be talking about a global regulatory body.

                        The other scenario is an equivalent of a global arms race. Done fast and without the control probelem solved we are taking a risk with the ai, and if its perfectly safe, we risk a rogue nation (or leader), or a society that has dramatically different values gaining global supremacy.
                        Last edited by tantalus; 10 Aug 20,, 20:44.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by tantalus View Post
                          He is 67, thats your best chance
                          I heard a commentator say he will resign by year's end on health grounds. Make of that what you want : )

                          Annus horribilis and all..

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                            I heard a commentator say he will resign by year's end on health grounds. Make of that what you want : )

                            Annus horribilis and all..
                            Define "a commentator."

                            I heard a commentator say Taiwan will retake the Mainland, and another say Hong Kong post-1997 will change China more than China will change Hong Kong ...
                            Trust me?
                            I'm an economist!

                            Comment

                            Working...
                            X