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French Presidential Election

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  • French Presidential Election

    First round: April 23rd (this sunday)
    Second round: May 7th (two weeks later)

    Initially penned (sic) as Marine le Pen vs Francois Fillon, the campaigns soon turned that into Marine le Pen vs Emanuel Macron.

    Major candidates are:
    • Francois Fillon: Republicans; center-right. Fraught by corruption affair ("Penelopegate"). Pro-business politics aimed at clientele politics and a leaner government, aiming to dismiss half a million government employees.
    • Benoit Hamon: Socialist Party; center-left. Winner of the primaries of President Hollande's ruling party after Hollande announced he would not run for a re-election. Considered to be left of Hollande.
    • Emanuel Macron: "En Marche"; centrist protest party. Tries to portray himself as a businessman who'd kick off with all-new politics, trying to make people forget that he was previously Minister of the Economy for two years until about half a year ago. Effectively the right-side version of Hamon, except he runs on his own platform.
    • Marine le Pen: National Front; ultra-right. Despite kicking her father's cronies out of the party - to secure her position - she pretty much continues the same politics. Successfully held back for quite a while, although as the campaign ramps up the rhethorics tend to mirror her father's racist platitudes.
    • Jean-Luc Melenchon: "Unsubmissive France"; ultra-left. Former member of the Socialist Party, left because he considers it "too liberal" in the sense of too centrist. Previously ran in 2012 with support of the French Communist Party.

    There's around a dozen candidates from smaller parties, the only one with some significance is Nicolas Dupont-Aignan who runs a right-wing platform seeking to position himself between Fillon and Le Pen and who could take a percent or two each from both of these two candidates.

    More recently though - last two weeks - Le Pen's support has been steadily, slowly eroding while Melenchon's star has been rising beyond what anyone thought possible. Fillon has also been making some progress again, despite having been thought to pretty much have fallen back enough as to have dropped out of the major race.

    Most recent projection:
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    Given no candidate is likely to get 50% in the first round we'll pretty much definitely see a second round (with the two top-scoring candidates). Predictions so far have shown that depending on the pairing in the second round, people will switch allegiance majorly; results for the second round are almost independent of the first round, since in any case around 50-60% of the electorate will chose a different candidate than in the first round. Prediction for all six possible combinations of the four front-runners:

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    Last edited by kato; 18 Apr 17,, 17:57. Reason: Fixed some names.

  • #2
    Good primer, thanks Kato.


    • #3
      Positions of French candidates on various matters in comparison (for the five named above) can be found in this PDF (en anglais):

      You can find on pages:
      (national policy)
      p.16 - Management of Sovereign Debt
      p.19 - Trade Policy
      p.23 - Energy Transition
      (security policy)
      p.27 - Terrorism and Domestic Security
      p.32 - Defense
      p.35 - Cybersecurity and Digital Technology
      p.40 - Migration
      (foreign policy)
      p.44 - the USA
      p.47 - Russia
      p.52 - Middle East / Turkey / the Mediterranean
      p.56 - Asia
      p.60 - Africa
      p.64 - The European Union
      p.67 - Franco-German Cooperation in Europe
      p.71 - France and Multilateralism (summary)

      In each case the positions of the five candidates on the same issues handily side-by-side.

      (P.S. Initially copied them over, but they're really too big)
      Last edited by kato; 18 Apr 17,, 18:46.


      • #4
        Any indication that the polls are heavily biased the way the US ones were?
        In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.



        • #5
          From what I hear from French people the press "likes Macron" and may be overestimating him; you hear that even from centrists, not just the alt-right who think "the media" (any) is biased against Le Pen.

          The US polls actually weren't that far from the outcome - if you took the margin of error into account. With any of the above polled second-round results the margin of error is far less than the distance to bridge.


          • #6
            Polls from friday, aggregated (from: Odoxa, BVA, Ifop-Fiducial) - not taking the Paris attack into account yet of course.

            Macron - 24.0%
            Le Pen - 22.8%
            Fillon - 19.2%
            Melenchon - 19.0%
            Hamon - 7.5%
            Dupont-Aignan - 4.2%
            everyone else combined - 3.3%

            "Everyone else" includes:
            • municipal politician Nathalie Artaud for Trotzkyist party Worker's Struggle, for which she is also spokeswoman since 2008. Considers herself the "true communist candidate" in the election. Got 0.56% in the 2012 election.
            • municipal politician Philippe Poutou for the unionist New Anticapitalist Party, slightly to the right of Artaud - they get criticized by Marxists for being too reformist. Got 1.15% in 2012.
            • municipal politician Francois Asselineau for the alt-right Popular Republican Union (UPR); a conspiracy theorist who thinks that Le Pen's Front National was created by Francois Mitterand in cahoots with the CIA to prevent him becoming president (note: Mitterand died 11 years before Asselinau got political aspirations and formed the UPR).
            • National Assembly representative Jean Lassalle for the semi-separatist Occitan* platform Resist!, known for quirky protests such as singing in the senate - in Occitan, not in French. Politically centrist. Used to be in the UDF, a politically centrist party, and has been sitting for them and their successors in the National Assembly since 2001.
            • "professional candidate" Jacques Cheminade for Solidarity & Progress, who's attempted running in literally every presidential election since joining the LaRouche movement in the mid 70s ("attempted" since he failed to get enough supporters - you need 500 signatures - to become candidate most of those times, and hence only stood in the election in 1995 and 2012 before). He got almost 90,000 votes in 2012 and finished last.

            * Occitania is roughly the southern third of modern France, covering the former Roman province Gallia Narbonensis and some adjacent areas. The Occitan language that held on for centuries after the French outlawed it is still spoken by some people in the countryside. Occitan is not an official language in France - but has that status in Occitan regions in both Italy and Spain. Since 2016 about half of Occitania is part of the new Occitania region of France, with about 5.6 million people.
            Last edited by kato; 22 Apr 17,, 21:56.


            • #7
              Booths are open - and some are already closed. Total electorate is 45.67 million people in France and its dependent territories and 1.3 million abroad. Due to the wide spread of timezones (from UTC-10 to UTC+11) the 66,546 poll booths are open at different times, with overseas territories mostly already casting their votes yesterday (except in the Indian Ocean). The last poll booths close by 8 pm UTC+2 universally, which is when the first prognoses for results are legally allowed to be published.


              • #8
                Political compass tool in English to find your candidate in this election:

                It gives me the expected result for my political convictions, even if i spun the weighting beyond the below to make it magically recommend me the exact candidate i was expecting (hint: quite a bit to the top, quite a bit to the left...).

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                P.S. : 22 minutes until the last vote booths close. Results expected in around 2 hours. Official results will start assembling here after 2000B.
                Last edited by kato; 23 Apr 17,, 18:39.


                • #9
                  First estimate, Ipsos:

                  Macron - 23.7%
                  Le Pen - 21.7%
                  Fillon - 19.5%
                  Melenchon - 19.5%
                  Hamon - 6.2%
                  Dupont-Aignan - 5.0%
                  everyone else combined - 4.4%

                  Just about like predicted:

                  Originally posted by kato View Post
                  Macron - 24.0%
                  Le Pen - 22.8%
                  Fillon - 19.2%
                  Melenchon - 19.0%
                  Hamon - 7.5%
                  Dupont-Aignan - 4.2%
                  everyone else combined - 3.3%


                  • #10
                    Hamon just officially endorsed Macron to Parti Socialiste voters (i.e. supporters of the government) for the second round. Ending his speech taking responsibility for his low result with "long live the republic, long live the left".


                    • #11
                      Fillon also endorses Macron.

                      Government officially endorses Macron.


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by kato View Post
                        Fillon also endorses Macron.

                        Government officially endorses Macron.

                        Le Pen should hopefully be finished in the 2nd round now. I can't imagine many of the voters for the other candidates would transfer their votes to Le Pen.
                        Love the french system - it's great at keeping the crazies out


                        • #13
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                          Government endorsing Macron = Best news for Le Pen.


                          • #14
                            So the same shit that happened here is happening over there....

                            LoL pollsters.

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                            • #15
                              Live aggregation of results with map:

                              (en italiano)

                              Note for Le Pen's result in particular that none of the Paris districts have been counted yet - only the countryside, and that only partially too.