The battle of Brexit!

[kato]

France and the UK are currently in a standoff around the island of Jersey in the Channel Islands crown dependency.

The Jersey government, by virtue of not considering themselves British, last friday refused 80% of some 340 applications from French fishermen for trawling around Jersey. French fishermen have decided to assemble a flotilla of about 60 ships (50 by French sources, 80 by British) that sailed into Jersey's harbour today as a civil protest. Minor altercations occured, some flares fired and a freight ship blocked in and so on. Apparently one French and Jerseyite fishing vessel also rammed each other.

The UK of course couldn't have those foreigners invading (and yes, it's called an invasion in perfidious Albion), and sent in the Navy. The two River class OPVs Tamar and Severn were deployed to intercept the flotilla. The French Navy has responded by deploying the armed Maritime Gendarmerie vessel Athos and the unarmed fast patrol vessel Themis to ensure the safety of its citizens and is "accompanying" the flotilla.

As of right now, the Jersey government has begun negotiating with the protesters. The Royal Navy ships are sitting at the western edge of the island, the French Navy ships a few miles off the east edge, and the fishing flotilla is in the middle right by the port. According to AIS data three further French patrol vessels are sitting ready underway at sea in positions from where they could interfere within two hours, including one of the Flamant OPVs at Cherbourg.

The European Commission has officially declared to the UK that the Jersey action violates the terms of the post-Brexit EU/UK Trade Deal, and is otherwise calling for calm and restraint. Some French officials have threatened to cut electricity supply to Jersey as a possible retaliatory action in line with the treaty - the island receives 95% of its electricity from France - while fishermen have called for a full blockade of Jersey.

[Firestorm]

That's just food items.

Overall trade lost:

• export to the EU : -5.6 billion pounds (-21.6%)
• imports from the EU : -6.6 billion pounds (-28.8%)

Half of all global imports to the UK come from the UK, 36% of British exports go to the EU.

However, one has to account for the fact that considerable quantities of trade were also handled through EU territory with other countries, and is impacted by new British trade barriers:

• imports to the UK from non-EU countries : -2.4 billion pounds (-12.7%)
• exports from the UK to non-EU countries : +0.3 billion pounds (+1.7%)

The trade deficit of the UK effectively doubled, while the overall economy of the UK contracted by -2.9%.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...de/january2021

How much of this would be the impact of the pandemic?

EDIT: They have disclaimers in the article you have quoted:

Trade has not been typical in recent months (no shit!) and, because of the practical challenges and temporary factors outlined in Section 3, we would encourage users to apply caution when making short-term comparisons of trade movements.

And they have provided pandemic related and other caveats at the end

...
In addition to the changes facing the UK after the transition period ended, the UK went into another national lockdown at the beginning of January 2021.
...

External evidence suggests some of the slower trade for goods in early January 2021 could be attributable to disruption caused by the end of the transition period. In addition, we also need to consider the stronger November and December stockpiling trade figures associated with some commodities and therefore may expect to see an unwinding of stocks from these previous months.
...

Despite the slow start for trade in January 2021, data from the Business insights and impact on the UK economy suggests that importing and exporting began to increase towards the end of January. The proportion of businesses reporting that they were unable to export decreased by 5.4 percentage points between the reporting periods 11 January to 24 January and 25 January to 2 February. Similarly, the proportion of businesses reporting they were unable to import decreased by 3.0 percentage points between the same reporting periods.

It is too early to say what the actual medium-long term impact of this is going to be. Especially not till the global economy has recovered from the pandemic.

[DOR]

You might want to rephrase this (unless it is re-exports)
“Half of all global imports to the UK come from the UK,”

[kato]

If I'm reading this right, the entire change amounts to less than a £bil.

That's just food items.

Overall trade lost:

• export to the EU : -5.6 billion pounds (-21.6%)
• imports from the EU : -6.6 billion pounds (-28.8%)

Half of all global imports to the UK come from the UK, 36% of British exports go to the EU.

However, one has to account for the fact that considerable quantities of trade were also handled through EU territory with other countries, and is impacted by new British trade barriers:

• imports to the UK from non-EU countries : -2.4 billion pounds (-12.7%)
• exports from the UK to non-EU countries : +0.3 billion pounds (+1.7%)

The trade deficit of the UK effectively doubled, while the overall economy of the UK contracted by -2.9%.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...de/january2021

[Officer of Engineers]

If I'm reading this right, the entire change amounts to less than a £bil. Hardly life and death struggle for a G7 country. However, this will be a big struggle for a lot of farmers and factories.

[kato]

UK exports to the EU January 2020/2021 % change.

Handy "simple" interpretation found in a German article:

For foodstuff in general exports from the UK to the EU have fallen to 2004 levels - overall downturn is -63.8% on that.

Import to the UK is still at 2013 levels, but is expected to go to the same levels as export around October once the UK actually starts border checks on those imports (which the EU does, the other way around).

[snapper]

UK exports to the EU January 2020/2021 % change.


Whisky -63.1% (Jan 2020; £105.4m 2021; £38.9m)
Cheese -85.1% (2020; £45.3m 2021; £6.8m)
Chocolate -68.4% (2020; £41.4m 2021; £13.1m)
Beef -91.5% (2020; £39.9m 2021; £3.4m)
Aminal Feed -80.3% (2020; £34.3m 2021; 6.8m)
Lamb and Mutton -45.1% (2020; £32.8m 2021; 18.0m)
Salmon -98% (2020; 27.7m 2021; 0.5m)
Pork -86.9% (2020; 27.0m 2021; 3.5m)
Fish -79.1% (2020; 25.2m 2021; 5.3m)
Breakfast Cereals -74.4% (2020; 24.8m 2021; 6.3m)

"Teething troubles" according to the UK Government.

[kato]

The British Government's misunderstanding of this deal they signed is not limited to Cornish shellfish; they seemingly didn't know the implications of the Norther Ireland part of the deal

If you read carefully through the actual deal they even managed to sign up to having the ECJ decide any dispute in which Union Law or its interpretation is involved (... which factually means all disputes arising from the British side).

Sounds like a load of BS to me. I used to live right by the English Channel and we bought crabs/lobsters straight from the boats when they came in.

The depuration thing is solely about bivalve molluscs - clams, oysters, mussels and such.

By nature of being filter feeders they accumulate about every bacteria that swims in those waters, which is why that depuration process was invented in Wales - to remove those bacteria before selling them. The exact process and standards adhered to varies a bit between countries, partially due to the waters in the fishing grounds for these being variably infested with different bacteria and such.

[snapper]

Sounds like a load of BS to me. I used to live right by the English Channel and we bought crabs/lobsters straight from the boats when they came in.

The British Government's misunderstanding of this deal they signed is not limited to Cornish shellfish; they seemingly didn't know the implications of the Norther Ireland part of the deal - or the Scottish fishermen who had originally supported 'Brexit' but who now cannot sell their fish to their customers in Europe and are having to be 'bailed out' by a Conservative UK Government.

[kato]

"Meanwhile, the environment secretary George Eustice admitted on Monday that the EU’s ban on the import of live British shellfish because of new Brexit rules is a “devastating blow” for the industry, which was valued at £393m in 2019.".

The shellfish thing is a bit complicated - because it is not about shellfish for consumption, even if both sides will not say that.

Since about ten years ago English and Welsh fishermen have been selling "undersized" shellfish (by market demand anyway) - without depuration - to companies in France who further grow them in aquaculture until they become a marketable product. Which obviously is in direct competition with French fishermen, and in recent years has led to some clashes at sea between both sides.

This switch of business has also gone so far that by now depuration facilities for shellfish in the UK have mostly closed down and there's pretty much only a handful companies remaining - mostly for preparation for domestic consumption. Virtually all depuration for export is done by a single company (Viviers UK) which a few years ago was also convicted for exploiting immature oyster stocks.

Depuration is a process in which shellfish live in tanks with sterilized seawater for a few weeks to get rid of the gigantic bacterial loads that they've grown in their time in infested waters. It was invented in Wales around WW1 to combat typhoid outbreaks related to shellfish, soon after became an industry standard and has been legally required for any sort of trade in shellfish worldwide since ... uh, probably before WW2. Britain's membership in the EU gave them a temporary avenue to not do it for the above specific trade as it was "not an export".

[snapper]

So I read this today on the BBC news website:

"He [Minister Michael Gove] told MPs an urgent "reset" was needed to the Northern Ireland protocol governing checks on GB-NI trade."

"Meanwhile, the environment secretary George Eustice admitted on Monday that the EU’s ban on the import of live British shellfish because of new Brexit rules is a “devastating blow” for the industry, which was valued at £393m in 2019."

It's almost as if the British Government was unaware of the implications of the deal it was signing...

[kato]

Stena Line, the largest Irish Sea operator, has doubled its services on the booming Rosslare-Cherbourg route, temporarily cancelling some sailings to Britain after freight volumes fell 60% in the first half of January.
[...]
Now its general manager, Glenn Carr, is fending off complaints about the number trucks passing through after freight traffic increased 500% in the first half of January.

Stabilized numbers: According to the Irish government, trade across the Irish Sea to Britain dropped by 50% in January compared to the previous year, while direct trade between Ireland and France has doubled.

[TopHatter]

After Brexit, Ireland and France cut out the middleman - Britain

CHERBOURG, France/DUBLIN (Reuters) - From his office overlooking Cherbourg docks, general manager Yannick Millet points to trailers destined for Ireland that belong to Amazon and FedEx, new customers and a signal of a potential big shift in post-Brexit trade.

Confronted by red tape and delays after Britain's messy exit from the European Union, Irish traders are shipping goods directly to and from European ports, shunning the once-speedier route through Britain.

"You see the shift in supply chains right here," he said.

All five operators connecting Ireland to mainland Europe have increased ferry services in the past nine months, with some bringing forward planned sailings and others moving larger ships away from quieter British routes to meet new demand.

Millet forecast Cherbourg would handle 9,000 trucks in January, equivalent to almost a quarter of what passed through the French port annually before the COVID-19 crisis.

For decades, the land bridge offered Irish traders the swiftest, most reliable route to continental Europe. It involves a short sea crossing between Dublin and Holyhead in Wales and then a hop between Dover and Calais. Every year 150,000 lorries would use the route.

But post-Brexit paperwork and delays in customs clearance are snarling up the process, adding hours or days to journeys and ratcheting up costs. Many companies are switching routes.

"This is a game-changer," said Chris Smyth, commercial director at Ireland's Perennial Freight. Demand was huge for freight space to ship to Cherbourg, Dunkirk, Rotterdam and Zeebrugge, he added.

Cherbourg's business before Brexit had been evenly split between Ireland and Britain. Now, the port would orient itself towards Ireland, Millet said.

"I thought traffic would double but it has tripled," he said. "The question now is whether the traffic volumes we see today will hold in the months to come."

AVOIDING THE MIDDLEMAN

Stena Line, the largest Irish Sea operator, has doubled its services on the booming Rosslare-Cherbourg route, temporarily cancelling some sailings to Britain after freight volumes fell 60% in the first half of January.

Irish Ferries has deployed a larger vessel out of Dublin and planned to add more weekly rotations next month, the Port of Cherbourg said. Brittany Ferries also brought forward a planned sailing linking France and Ireland.

Danish operator DFDS said the freight ferries plying its new 23-hour crossing from Rosslare to Dunkirk six days a week were "pretty much full". Route director Aidan Coffey said capturing 30% of "land bridge" traffic would make the route viable and DFDS might soon add up to two more sailings per week.

"We're blown away by the demand," Coffey said.

No one knows if the shift is permanent.

The Irish Maritime Development Office, a government shipping promotion body, said a return to pre-Brexit logistic chains would depend on the speed of customs formalities along the land bridge and that ferries linking Ireland and mainland Europe could not replicate its volumes.

Eddie Burke, a senior official at Ireland's transport department, said the route through Britain would undoubtedly come back into play again.

Ferry operators were taking decisions on capacity week by week, said Ole Bockmann, Stena's operations chief in Cherbourg. Reverting to land bridge routes was simple, he said. "We just take the ships off and go back to the old system."

RENAISSANCE

It gives ports like Cherbourg and Ireland's Rosslare a narrow window to persuade traders that the longer sea crossing between Ireland and mainland Europe is commercially viable for just-in-time logistics.

Eighteen months ago, Rosslare on the southeastern tip of Ireland was struggling. Its traffic volumes were stagnant while rivals were enjoying a 10-year run of growth.

Now its general manager, Glenn Carr, is fending off complaints about the number trucks passing through after freight traffic increased 500% in the first half of January.

Carr said the old perception that direct crossings from Ireland were too long for fresh food and just-in-time supply chains was changing. Many of the companies that had switched from the land bridge would remain, he forecast.

"I was talking to some multinationals only this week and the question they asked me was, 'Glenn, are you putting on more services?'"

An 18-hour ferry ride away, Cherbourg port's Millet said his immediate priority was responding to shipping companies demands for better restaurants and washrooms for truckers and ironing out quayside glitches in the loading of extra vessels.

"Brexit has for us been an opportunity to rethink our port," he said.
__________

I'm sure it'll be fine....

[snapper]

So in July ago the long awaited Intelligence and Security Committee report (written last year by the previous Committee before the General Election) was finally published. (The full report is here; https://www.scribd.com/document/4698...oad&from_embed). This was not before the Government had tried to plan a chosen Chairman to head the committee who would presumably have downplayed the findings of the report but the Committee 'rebelled' and elected their own Chairman, a Tory (Conservative) of a more independent type who was subsequently 'rewarded' by having the whip removed . Basically the report alleges 'willful negligence' on the UK Government's part because nobody - no single Government department or service - had been actively given an agenda to look into 'Muscovite Interference' in any occasion where it was suspected. The Government acknowledged before the Committee report was published that some Muscovite interference occurred in the election last year that re-elected Johnson with a larger majority; how they know, or who told them or on who's side the Muscovites interfered they mentioned not. Considering the Committees report that the Government 'willfully' did not go looking the whole corrupt dirt pile which many of us are aware continues to this day it is a very good question as to who told the Government about interference in the last UK election. There was a deliberate avoidance of looking into the same in the Scottish referendum and and the EU vote (which besides broke the law).

Well now the truth is slowly coming out: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54228079 (This involves Boris Johnson's occasional tennis partner)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...d-billionaire/

One would have thought it would now be incumbent on this completely feckless British Government to react by tasking MI5/GCHQ and the relevant Police units to look into the whole business but I am not holding my breath. This is after all not only an incompetent shower of Ministers but one without shame for breaking the law domestic (the proroguing Parliament turned out to be illegal) or international. No wonder the current Conservative Party in the UK is so chummy with Muscovite thieves.

By the way the whole FinCen files (of transactions between banks 2000-2017 that were noted as 'suspicious') from which these UK relevant insights come is here: https://www.icij.org/investigations/fincen-files/

[kato]

Germany's Brexit rapporteur declared that "Britain is joining the ranks of despots" like North Korea.

Germany does not have a "Brexit rapporteur".

The statement was made by Detlef Seif, UK rapporteur for the CDU/CSU faction within the European Union Parliamentary Commission jointly composed of members of the German Federal Parliament and German members of the European Parliament; each of the parties represented in that commission have a rapporteur for the UK (and for any other European country). The role is somewhat fluent, although Seif has been holding it for a while now.

Seif opposes continuing any sorts of Brexit treaty negotiation with the UK due to their intention to break international law.