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  • Originally posted by snapper View Post
    UK exports to the EU January 2020/2021 % change.
    Handy "simple" interpretation found in a German article:

    For foodstuff in general exports from the UK to the EU have fallen to 2004 levels - overall downturn is -63.8% on that.

    Import to the UK is still at 2013 levels, but is expected to go to the same levels as export around October once the UK actually starts border checks on those imports (which the EU does, the other way around).




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    • If I'm reading this right, the entire change amounts to less than a £bil. Hardly life and death struggle for a G7 country. However, this will be a big struggle for a lot of farmers and factories.
      Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 28 Mar 21,, 21:59.
      Chimo

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      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
        If I'm reading this right, the entire change amounts to less than a £bil.
        That's just food items.

        Overall trade lost:
        • export to the EU : -5.6 billion pounds (-21.6%)
        • imports from the EU : -6.6 billion pounds (-28.8%)
        Half of all global imports to the UK come from the UK, 36% of British exports go to the EU.

        However, one has to account for the fact that considerable quantities of trade were also handled through EU territory with other countries, and is impacted by new British trade barriers:
        • imports to the UK from non-EU countries : -2.4 billion pounds (-12.7%)
        • exports from the UK to non-EU countries : +0.3 billion pounds (+1.7%)
        The trade deficit of the UK effectively doubled, while the overall economy of the UK contracted by -2.9%.

        https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...de/january2021

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        • You might want to rephrase this (unless it is re-exports)
          “Half of all global imports to the UK come from the UK,”
          Trust me?
          I'm an economist!

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          • Originally posted by kato View Post
            That's just food items.

            Overall trade lost:
            • export to the EU : -5.6 billion pounds (-21.6%)
            • imports from the EU : -6.6 billion pounds (-28.8%)
            Half of all global imports to the UK come from the UK, 36% of British exports go to the EU.

            However, one has to account for the fact that considerable quantities of trade were also handled through EU territory with other countries, and is impacted by new British trade barriers:
            • imports to the UK from non-EU countries : -2.4 billion pounds (-12.7%)
            • exports from the UK to non-EU countries : +0.3 billion pounds (+1.7%)
            The trade deficit of the UK effectively doubled, while the overall economy of the UK contracted by -2.9%.

            https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...de/january2021
            How much of this would be the impact of the pandemic?

            EDIT: They have disclaimers in the article you have quoted:

            Trade has not been typical in recent months (no shit!) and, because of the practical challenges and temporary factors outlined in Section 3, we would encourage users to apply caution when making short-term comparisons of trade movements.
            And they have provided pandemic related and other caveats at the end

            ...
            In addition to the changes facing the UK after the transition period ended, the UK went into another national lockdown at the beginning of January 2021.
            ...

            External evidence suggests some of the slower trade for goods in early January 2021 could be attributable to disruption caused by the end of the transition period. In addition, we also need to consider the stronger November and December stockpiling trade figures associated with some commodities and therefore may expect to see an unwinding of stocks from these previous months.
            ...

            Despite the slow start for trade in January 2021, data from the Business insights and impact on the UK economy suggests that importing and exporting began to increase towards the end of January. The proportion of businesses reporting that they were unable to export decreased by 5.4 percentage points between the reporting periods 11 January to 24 January and 25 January to 2 February. Similarly, the proportion of businesses reporting they were unable to import decreased by 3.0 percentage points between the same reporting periods.
            It is too early to say what the actual medium-long term impact of this is going to be. Especially not till the global economy has recovered from the pandemic.
            Last edited by Firestorm; 31 Mar 21,, 03:54.

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            • France and the UK are currently in a standoff around the island of Jersey in the Channel Islands crown dependency.

              The Jersey government, by virtue of not considering themselves British, last friday refused 80% of some 340 applications from French fishermen for trawling around Jersey. French fishermen have decided to assemble a flotilla of about 60 ships (50 by French sources, 80 by British) that sailed into Jersey's harbour today as a civil protest. Minor altercations occured, some flares fired and a freight ship blocked in and so on. Apparently one French and Jerseyite fishing vessel also rammed each other.

              The UK of course couldn't have those foreigners invading (and yes, it's called an invasion in perfidious Albion), and sent in the Navy. The two River class OPVs Tamar and Severn were deployed to intercept the flotilla. The French Navy has responded by deploying the armed Maritime Gendarmerie vessel Athos and the unarmed fast patrol vessel Themis to ensure the safety of its citizens and is "accompanying" the flotilla.

              As of right now, the Jersey government has begun negotiating with the protesters. The Royal Navy ships are sitting at the western edge of the island, the French Navy ships a few miles off the east edge, and the fishing flotilla is in the middle right by the port. According to AIS data three further French patrol vessels are sitting ready underway at sea in positions from where they could interfere within two hours, including one of the Flamant OPVs at Cherbourg.

              The European Commission has officially declared to the UK that the Jersey action violates the terms of the post-Brexit EU/UK Trade Deal, and is otherwise calling for calm and restraint. Some French officials have threatened to cut electricity supply to Jersey as a possible retaliatory action in line with the treaty - the island receives 95% of its electricity from France - while fishermen have called for a full blockade of Jersey.

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