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  • Originally posted by snapper View Post
    UK exports to the EU January 2020/2021 % change.
    Handy "simple" interpretation found in a German article:

    For foodstuff in general exports from the UK to the EU have fallen to 2004 levels - overall downturn is -63.8% on that.

    Import to the UK is still at 2013 levels, but is expected to go to the same levels as export around October once the UK actually starts border checks on those imports (which the EU does, the other way around).




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    • If I'm reading this right, the entire change amounts to less than a £bil. Hardly life and death struggle for a G7 country. However, this will be a big struggle for a lot of farmers and factories.
      Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 28 Mar 21,, 21:59.
      Chimo

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      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
        If I'm reading this right, the entire change amounts to less than a £bil.
        That's just food items.

        Overall trade lost:
        • export to the EU : -5.6 billion pounds (-21.6%)
        • imports from the EU : -6.6 billion pounds (-28.8%)
        Half of all global imports to the UK come from the UK, 36% of British exports go to the EU.

        However, one has to account for the fact that considerable quantities of trade were also handled through EU territory with other countries, and is impacted by new British trade barriers:
        • imports to the UK from non-EU countries : -2.4 billion pounds (-12.7%)
        • exports from the UK to non-EU countries : +0.3 billion pounds (+1.7%)
        The trade deficit of the UK effectively doubled, while the overall economy of the UK contracted by -2.9%.

        https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...de/january2021

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        • You might want to rephrase this (unless it is re-exports)
          “Half of all global imports to the UK come from the UK,”
          Trust me?
          I'm an economist!

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          • Originally posted by kato View Post
            That's just food items.

            Overall trade lost:
            • export to the EU : -5.6 billion pounds (-21.6%)
            • imports from the EU : -6.6 billion pounds (-28.8%)
            Half of all global imports to the UK come from the UK, 36% of British exports go to the EU.

            However, one has to account for the fact that considerable quantities of trade were also handled through EU territory with other countries, and is impacted by new British trade barriers:
            • imports to the UK from non-EU countries : -2.4 billion pounds (-12.7%)
            • exports from the UK to non-EU countries : +0.3 billion pounds (+1.7%)
            The trade deficit of the UK effectively doubled, while the overall economy of the UK contracted by -2.9%.

            https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/natio...de/january2021
            How much of this would be the impact of the pandemic?

            EDIT: They have disclaimers in the article you have quoted:

            Trade has not been typical in recent months (no shit!) and, because of the practical challenges and temporary factors outlined in Section 3, we would encourage users to apply caution when making short-term comparisons of trade movements.
            And they have provided pandemic related and other caveats at the end

            ...
            In addition to the changes facing the UK after the transition period ended, the UK went into another national lockdown at the beginning of January 2021.
            ...

            External evidence suggests some of the slower trade for goods in early January 2021 could be attributable to disruption caused by the end of the transition period. In addition, we also need to consider the stronger November and December stockpiling trade figures associated with some commodities and therefore may expect to see an unwinding of stocks from these previous months.
            ...

            Despite the slow start for trade in January 2021, data from the Business insights and impact on the UK economy suggests that importing and exporting began to increase towards the end of January. The proportion of businesses reporting that they were unable to export decreased by 5.4 percentage points between the reporting periods 11 January to 24 January and 25 January to 2 February. Similarly, the proportion of businesses reporting they were unable to import decreased by 3.0 percentage points between the same reporting periods.
            It is too early to say what the actual medium-long term impact of this is going to be. Especially not till the global economy has recovered from the pandemic.
            Last edited by Firestorm; 31 Mar 21,, 03:54.

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