Originally posted by snapper
View Post
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
The battle of Brexit!
Collapse
X
-
Last edited by zara; 17 Apr 17,, 17:54.
-
The initial problem will be overcoming the Fixed Term Parliament Act passed by the Cameron - Clegg coalition Government which stipulates 5yr Parliamentary terms. As I understand it this requires either a 2/3rd majority vote in the House of Commons or a vote of "No Confidence" in the Government before an election can even be triggered. They could also have a vote to repeal the current law on fixed terms. The Government majority is slim (around 17) so getting a 2/3rd majority would require the Opposition's support. Will they oblige? If not a "No Confidence" vote could be tried but this would require Tory MPs to vote against their own Government. Possibly the easiest way is to repeal the Fixed Term Act as this requires just a majority vote. It appears however that they are first going to try to get the 2/3rds majority needed to overcome the Act. Presumably this will moved in the House tomorrow.
The PM's full statement (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39630009) she cites the need for a strong Government during the Brexit negotiations as the prime motivation for the election;
"Our opponents believe because the government's majority is so small, that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course. They are wrong.
"They underestimate our determination to get the job done and I am not prepared to let them endanger the security of millions of working people across the country.
"Because what they are doing jeopardises the work we must do to prepare for Brexit at home and it weakens the government's negotiating position in Europe.
"If we do not hold a general election now their political game-playing will continue, and the negotiations with the European Union will reach their most difficult stage in the run-up to the next scheduled election.
"Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country.
"So we need a general election and we need one now, because we have at this moment a one-off chance to get this done while the European Union agrees its negotiating position and before the detailed talks begin.
To some extent it is bound to be another Brexit dominated campaign though in theory it will not alter the choice already made. The Liberals doubtless will say a vote for them is a vote for remain and are likely do well on this basis. UKIP are nigh on dead in the polls and have no MPs at present (Carswell having gone independent). The Labour Party are a shambles and will look for losing so they can get rid of Corbyn (who they tried to get rid of last year). In terms of Scotland it is risky at best; presuming 'leave' voters in Scotland may vote Conservative the Tories may do slightly better there but the SNP will get another majority and be able to call again for another referendum.
There is much that will be read into it no matter what but it seems almost certain that Theresa May will get a larger majority, the LibDems do better and the Labour Party get trounced.
The only other thing to say about it is that clearly delay any serious Brexit negotiations. It is nonsense to say that you need an election now or it would get in the way of Brexit negotiations. Article 50 negotiations take 2yrs by the Lisbon Treaty and could have been triggered last year. Even now they must end in 2019 which is before when the next election should be (2020) by the Fixed Term Act. Moreover Theresa May has consistently rejected just what she has now decided to do. My opinion of her low at best - she was a remainer but now leads the leave Party, rejected a snap election only to call one for political expediency and rejects cutting the deficit. I hope she builds some more Frigates and enlarges the army and on foreign policy she is generally ok other than the EU.Last edited by snapper; 18 Apr 17,, 14:09.
Comment
-
Hmmm, I'm getting sick of saying "this is a mistake". Corbyn can easily make this a Brexit referendum vote #2 and we're back to 51/49 with the 51% for Corbyn. Imagine that, an extreme socialist, ant-semitic, 'eat the rich' Hugo Chavez in charge of Westminster. Aye carumba.In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.
Leibniz
Comment
-
Originally posted by kato View PostBritain runs FPTP.
Labour only needs a minor swing to take govt, a re-energised anti-brexit vote will do that for them.
FPTP biases against small parties, not large ones.In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.
Leibniz
Comment
-
And how will this affect the plod investigation that is going on into the tory election overspending scandal ??????? The 20 seat majority will be slashed if the ones under investigation are found guilty and deselected , it will then have seriously backfired on May , and this BS ref brexit needing negotiation , hang on a mo its only supposed to take 2 years !!!!!! But they are in power until 2020 thats another 3 years so why call an election njow , the plot thickens watson forsooth .
Comment
-
Originally posted by Parihaka View PostCorbyn can easily make this a Brexit referendum vote #2 and we're back to 51/49 with the 51% for Corbyn.
As proof of this it seems her Majesty's Opposition have backed the Government's call for an election of 8th June, giving them the majority needed to overcome the Fixed Term Act. For many of these Labour MPs it almost Turkeys voting for Christmas.
Originally posted by tankie View PostAnd how will this affect the plod investigation that is going on into the tory election overspending scandal ?Last edited by snapper; 19 Apr 17,, 17:27.
Comment
-
Originally posted by kato View PostReduction through automation in manufacturing and industry was a thing of the 90s in Europe for the most part. "Industry 4.0" as the current step (hate the term, personally) mostly hits the service and administration fields - because production already is automated."Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."
Comment
-
I see Gina Miller has now changed tack. It's all about creating a tactical opposition now that a general election has been called.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...st-hard-brexit
Any doubts about her are now confirmed
Comment
-
There are tens of millions of people still living lives in these towns and cities in the US, that never came back economically. Alternating between marginal employment, underemployment, unemployment, and welfare. I'm sure there are regions of Europe where it is the same.Last edited by Toby; 20 Apr 17,, 06:50.
Comment
Comment