Brexit

[tankie]

You can actually watch the Supreme Court Brexit case live here:

https://www.supremecourt.uk/live/court-01.html

Thanks but no thanks , blood pressure is high enough without watching this stitch up .

PS Davies is sprouting that we may have to pay to trade in the EU , does that then mean they have to pay to trade with the UK ?? just asking .hohum

[zara]

Thanks but no thanks , blood pressure is high enough without watching this stitch up .

PS Davies is sprouting that we may have to pay to trade in the EU , does that then mean they have to pay to trade with the UK ?? just asking .hohum

No of course they won't have to pay. They don't pay Norway and they dont pay Switzerland. We're the beggars here Tankie.
We're going to get a bad deal. All our government can do try and make sure it's better than no deal at all. Ireland are our only allies in this.

[tankie]

We're the beggars here Tankie.

rolls eyes

[zara]

rolls eyes

We are a country with a total GDP of 2,760 billion Dollars. The EU (without the UK) has a GDP of 16,860 billion dollars.
Therefore what we are asking for is equal terms for an economy over 6 times our size. What we are offering is 6 times less than what we are seeking.
This is the norm in trade deals. Look at Switzerlands deal with China. The Chinese were given free access to the Swiss market for 17 years before Switzerlands free trade with China begins. Why? Because the Swiss enconomy is far far smaller than the Chinese economy, therefore worth less.

If I'm wrong about this then why is Davis suggesting it? Boris more or less agreed when he said the payments have to be sensible.

However, the idea that the EU will offer such a deal is probably unlikely.

[snapper]

Why is it so valuable... Farming land?

Farmland is not normally regarded as geo politically vital and besides the farmland in Ukraine with it's 'black earth' (and a slightly warmer climate in summer) is regarded as probably the best in Europe. As Dok hints it is Belarus' position which primarily makes it important;

Because it's a buffer between Poland and Russia. Just like Ukraine.
With the extra points to connect the Baltics on a wider line.

There are other calculations (see for example the RAND report https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ran...AND_RR1253.pdf) and many variables but essentially they would have to close what is known as the 'Suwałki gap' - the corridor between Poland and Lithuania south of Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg and Belarus and re-enforce the block - only possible via Belarus until the Baltics are over run. NATO must reduce the A2AD capacity in Kgrad/burg and stop the re-enforcement which leads to gaining air superiority over Belarus and in the wider theater. Whether they like it or not the Belarusians will get an ultimatum from Moscow in the event of military action in the Baltics and it seems increasingly that they will resist - otherwise why refuse the Muscovite demand for a new airbase there? etc... Realistically they could over run the Baltics as the NATO build up went on but with a hostile Belarus as well once the NATO build up was completed they would face almost certain defeat.

There are alot of 'what if' scenarios but this thread is about Brexit and I do not want to go into details when already off topic. If you want a fuller explanation ask elsewhere or pm me.

[Toby]

Farmland is not normally regarded as geo politically vital and besides the farmland in Ukraine with it's 'black earth' (and a slightly warmer climate in summer) is regarded as probably the best in Europe. As Dok hints it is Belarus' position which primarily makes it important;

lol, understood!... Similar to Poland in WW2

There are other calculations (see for example the RAND report https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ran...AND_RR1253.pdf) and many variables but essentially they would have to close what is known as the 'Suwałki gap' - the corridor between Poland and Lithuania south of Kaliningrad/Koenigsburg and Belarus and re-enforce the block - only possible via Belarus until the Baltics are over run. NATO must reduce the A2AD capacity in Kgrad/burg and stop the re-enforcement which leads to gaining air superiority over Belarus and in the wider theater. Whether they like it or not the Belarusians will get an ultimatum from Moscow in the event of military action in the Baltics and it seems increasingly that they will resist - otherwise why refuse the Muscovite demand for a new airbase there? etc... Realistically they could over run the Baltics as the NATO build up went on but with a hostile Belarus as well once the NATO build up was completed they would face almost certain defeat. There are alot of 'what if' scenarios but this thread is about Brexit and I do not want to go into details when already off topic

Interesting reading non the less, I'm learning...

[Toby]

Sorry sloppy phrasing on my behalf. Meant 'Single', not 'Free'

Don't you see this would break the UK single market as well as the European one. You couldn't control the products or people coming into the country.

'Good luck with Belarus you deserve each other'?
I think you misunderstood my point. The UK would join Belarus as the only European country out of the single market.

I did. One too many on Saturday night ;)

Your concerns are understood. I just think alot of what is being projected is negative propaganda. Lets not forget that Britain is ‘Europe’s investment banker’ without our input it will fail. So its in everybodies interest to accomodate each other. We're not Belarus by a long way and never will be.

[snapper]

Interesting reading non the less, I'm learning...

Then it is a pleasure.

[Toby]

does that then mean they have to pay to trade with the UK ?? just asking .hohum

Everything that works in life involves more than one ...So yeh I think a two way street is the way to go. Unfortunately some folks seem dead set on shooting themselves in the foot by pretending to hold all the chips. The arrogance of these unelected bureaucrats is astonishing...
Reminds me of my divorce.. 'The unstoppable force meets the immovable object'

[zara]

Everything that works in life involves more than one ...So yeh I think a two way street is the way to go. Unfortunately some folks seem dead set on shooting themselves in the foot by pretending to hold all the chips. The arrogance of these unelected bureaucrats is astonishing...
Reminds me of my divorce.. 'The unstoppable force meets the immovable object'

The EU holds the overwhelming portion of the chips. Britain is in an extremley vulnerable position, see what happens here if we revert to WTO rules. We NEED a deal. The EU can live without one.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2016...the-brexit-lie

If you compare what weve got with any individual state, then yes we have strong leverage with most. But the EU is negotiating as a bloc, which dwarves our influence. It'll be the same when we try to negotiate a deal with the US and China - we are minnows compared to them.

The Brexiteer leaders utterly failed to predict that the EU would negotiate as a bloc.

[Chunder]

The EU holds the overwhelming portion of the chips. Britain is in an extremley vulnerable position, see what happens here if we revert to WTO rules. We NEED a deal. The EU can live without one.

Good. Go make deals like the rest of the commonwealth did when the U.K joined the E.U. You'll see it's far easier. Our P.M can visit any old country and come back with a deal or a MOU, can yours do that? It's sad watching a former country that was a trailblaser with trade now afraid of leaving it's mothers teat. The E.U in it's total accounts for our 5th largest (and it's a measly 5th at that) export market - and a significant portion of that goes to the U.K. Moral of the story: big common market, but pretty useless competitive wise.

[zara]

What is the obession with the Commonwealth amoung Brexiteers? Why is always the commonwealth they want to trade with but Brazil, Korea, China or South Africa rarely get a mention? It has a real wiff of empire naustalgia about it.
India have already said they want free movement of labour in the UK for their millions of IT workers in return for a trade deal. I don't think too many Express, Mail or Sun readers would be happy about that. Having just got rid of the hated Polish there is a new wave of highly educated indians enter the country.

[zara]

Our P.M can visit any old country and come back with a deal or a MOU, can yours do that?

I don't think he can!!

ChAFTA took 10 years to agree!
Japan–Australia Economic Partnership Agreement took 7!

If we dont have a transitional deal with the EU we will face the better part of a decade with no agreements or very small ones. This what business mean by the Brexit 'Cliff'.

[tankie]

However, the idea that the EU will offer such a deal is probably unlikely.

We didnt vote OUT to make deals . the deal camoronoccio offered was , IN or OUT , you the people decide , its your choice IN or OUT .

[zara]

We didnt vote OUT to make deals . the deal camoronoccio offered was , IN or OUT , you the people decide , its your choice IN or OUT .

So you dont want ANY kind of deal with Europe? Not even a Canadian style FTA? Or do you just not want deals with any country?