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  • Doom n gloom from the guardian



    Nell and Baker do not make any specific predictions about how the UK will leave the EU, but they do point out two key facts:

    The EU will not give the UK a deal in which Britain gets access to the single market but opts out of the "freedom of movement" requirement that lets EU migrants into the country. In fact, the EU cannot give this deal to the UK because it would represent an existential threat to the EU itself: If one country gets access to the single market while controlling its own immigration borders, then every country in the EU will want to do the same.
    Leaving the EU will cause such massive damage to the UK economy that it might be political suicide for any government to actually leave despite the fact that a majority of people voted Leave in the EU Referendum.
    You can sum up the problem in 10 easy steps:


    READ MORE
    Why Britain could end up rejoining the EU after a decade of Brexit
    1. The Conservative government has a small majority of just 12 seats.

    2. Prime minister Theresa May is pro-Remain.

    3. A majority of MPs are pro-Remain. "Parliament had a clear pro-Remain bias since over 70% of all MPs and over 50% of Conservative MPs supported Remain," according to Morgan Stanley.

    4. The government faces a general election in 2020, right after the UK — in theory — leaves the EU.

    5. One million UK voters live in EU countries. The vast majority of them will vote against any government that threatens their EU residency status.

    Angela Merkel insists Article 50 must be triggered before Brexit talks

    6. Reduced access to the single market will hurt the economy. The mere prospect of it is already triggering a recession in the second half of this year.

    7. Do the Tories really want to go into the 2020 election defending a policy that hurts the economy and increases unemployment?

    READ MORE
    Francois Hollande says he will tell Theresa May Brexit talks must start quickly without pre-negotiations
    Brexit to spark UK recession say economists as forecasts slashed
    Easyjet chief Carolyn McCall says Brexit pound sterling slump has cost airline £40m
    Brexit sees commercial property demand slump as London prices suffer most
    8. The EU will not offer the UK a "special deal" featuring full access to the single market but control of UK borders because such a deal would encourage other nations to leave. Nationalist movements, and anti-EU sentiment, are on the rise across Europe.

    9. The EU can withdraw the UK's bank "passport" that gives UK financial services firms access to the single market. Do the Tories want to go into 2020 defending a policy that decimates The City, which (according to Morgan Stanley) pays 11% of the UK's entire tax base?

    10. Triggering Article 50 is reversible! Not many people know this. But the UK can formally trigger its Article 50 request and then withdraw the request before Brexit actually takes place, if the country wants to.

    On those assumptions, May's government is heavily incentivised to drag its feet over the Leave negotiations. It would be much easier for the Tories to be seen to be negotiating an exit, while not actually exiting, than actually leaving Europe. Especially when 2020 comes around.


    The new government after 2020 will face a similar choice. Unless that government is an expanded Tory majority dominated by hardcore eurosceptics, then you should expect Brexit to be pushed back even further as "crucial" trade negotiations continue ... indefinitely.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by tankie View Post
      10. Triggering Article 50 is reversible! Not many people know this. But the UK can formally trigger its Article 50 request and then withdraw the request before Brexit actually takes place, if the country wants to.
      [B]


      This is news to me...Article 50 seems pretty clear - dont see anything allowing us to change our mind:


      Article 50

      1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

      2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

      3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

      4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

      A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

      5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

      Article 49
      Any European State which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is committed to promoting them may apply to become a member of the Union. The European Parliament and national Parliaments shall be notified of this application. The applicant State shall address its application to the Council, which shall act unanimously after consulting the Commission and after receiving the assent of the European Parliament, which shall act by an absolute majority of its component members. The conditions of admission and the adjustments to the Treaties on which the Union is founded, which such admission entails, shall be the subject of an agreement between the Member States and the applicant State. This agreement shall be submitted for ratification by all the contracting States in accordance with their respective constitutional requirements. The conditions of eligibility agreed upon by the European Council shall be taken into account.

      Comment


      • I hope the guardian has it wrong , but ?

        Comment


        • Originally posted by tankie View Post
          I hope the guardian has it wrong , but ?
          Was watching 'the long goodbye' on BBC Parliament last night where they looked at how we would actually execute Brexit.
          It seems like it could take a decade or longer and even then there would have to be some sort of ratification process of any deal either in the form of another referendum or an Act of Parliament (or both).

          The more I hear about the nitty gritty of leaving the more i'm convinced we wont actually leave. Or if we do it will be some sort of Brexit in name only and very little will change..

          Comment


          • Originally posted by zara View Post
            Was watching 'the long goodbye' on BBC Parliament last night where they looked at how we would actually execute Brexit.
            It seems like it could take a decade or longer and even then there would have to be some sort of ratification process of any deal either in the form of another referendum or an Act of Parliament (or both).

            The more I hear about the nitty gritty of leaving the more i'm convinced we wont actually leave. Or if we do it will be some sort of Brexit in name only and very little will change..
            Once you invoke art. 50, it's 2 years tops till you are out.
            No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

            To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
              Once you invoke art. 50, it's 2 years tops till you are out.
              Yes I know, but don't think our PM will invoke it. here's why:

              - She doesn't want to go down in history as being the PM that broke up the union with Scotland. She made that clear in her acceptance speech when she spoke about her support for the union.

              - She doesn't want to be the PM that set Northern Ireland back on the path of violence, or possibly in the longer term, re-unification. Brexit has suddenly given many more pragmatic Nationalists and Unionists a strong economic reason to support re-unification. Demography is already heading in this direction, this vote may bring it forward by a generation.

              - It would devastate the Gibraltan economy and may send them down the path of autonomy.




              - Once Article 50 is triggered it puts all the power in the hands of the the remaining 27 states. IT starts a ticking clock that penalises our position, not theirs. There is no way we can get a good deal in the 2 years. When Greenland left the EU (with a population of 50,000) they had a single issue - Fish. And that took 3 years. We will inevitably end up with a terrible deal (that includes freedom of movement) and will not satisfy anybody.

              - Triggering A50 probably involves an Act of Parliament. That could well pass, but it will almost certainty be blocked by the Lords. They can repeatedly delay this by up to a decade, with millions of young Pro-EU voters coming of voting age and millions of old anti-EU voters dying.

              I think Brexit will die a death of a thousand cuts because its simply too hard pull off.

              Comment


              • Essentially few tricks to fcuk up with the current voters. My, my...
                No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                  Essentially few tricks to fcuk up with the current voters. My, my...
                  Well in fairness to the PM, shes in a nightmare scenario. We voted to leave the EU, not EFTA or the EEA. Unfortunately most people didn't know the difference and the leading Leave politicians didn't bother to explain it to them.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by zara View Post
                    Well in fairness to the PM, shes in a nightmare scenario. We voted to leave the EU, not EFTA or the EEA. Unfortunately most people didn't know the difference and the leading Leave politicians didn't bother to explain it to them.
                    By that standard, those who knew didn't bother to get out and vote.
                    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                      By that standard, those who knew didn't bother to get out and vote.
                      Not all Leave voters voted because of Immigration though. I'd guess (though Ive not seen any polls) that most did, but there could well be millions who didn't.
                      In any event it gives the government an easy way to side step the Ireland/Scotland/Gibralatar issues.

                      Comment


                      • The UK aint going anywhere with these sleazy tory twats .

                        Brussels deal keeping Britain from being fully independent of EU sparked fury
                        UKIP THE PEOPLES MANDATE·MONDAY, 25 JULY 2016
                        A DEAL that could stop Britain from fully leaving the EU sparked anger last night.
                        UK and EU sources say Brussels could offer Britain temporary curbs on immigration in return for access to the single market. But angry Brexit campaigners accused politicians in Europe of failing to accept that Britain has voted to cut ties totally with the EU.
                        Earlier Tory MPs dug their heels in and insisted they will not let Theresa May backslide on Brexit by surrendering on immigration control and trade.
                        Mrs May, who last week discussed the referendum result with her French and German counterparts, has said she does not expect to trigger formal EU talks this year but insists that “Brexit means Brexit”, even though she supported the Remain side in the referendum.
                        Yesterday British and EU sources said a deal was being considered in Europe under which the UK would be exempted from Europe’s free movement obligations for up to seven years while maintaining access to the single market.
                        Britain would be expected to continue paying into the EU budget, although probably less than now, and would not have a say in single-market rules. British officials stressed it was still “very early days” but that some form of “emergency brake” on migration was one of the ideas “on the table”.
                        Nathalie Tocci, director of the Rome-based Institute for International Affairs, who is also an adviser to EU “foreign minster” Federica Mogherini, said she thought the Italian government would back an emergency brake in order to keep Britain in the single market.

                        It would, though, have to be time-limited to comply with EU rules. But the package would be highly controversial with those who backed Brexit, who want our duty to accept the free movement of people to be ended and for Britain to come out of the single market.
                        Tory former cabinet minister John Redwood said: “The UK did not recently vote for a slightly beefed-up version of David Cameron’s attempted renegotiation with the EU. “We voted to leave, to take back control of our laws, our money and our borders. “The rest of the EU is missing the point. There should be no negotiation over taking back control.”
                        Fellow Tory MP and veteran Eurosceptic Sir Bill Cash dismissed the idea of staying in the single market, declaring: “You cannot remain. If you’re out, you’re out.” Jayne Adye, director of Get Britain Out, said: “The EU seems to have been shaken by Brexit. But we must have control of our own borders and not a time-limited sticking plaster.”

                        Federica Mogherini is the EU's Foreign Minister.
                        As yesterday’s Sunday Express reported, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has said he is increasingly confident Britain can get a deal with the EU which both allows free trade and cuts immigration.
                        Meanwhile, it emerged that a group of Tory MPs met last week to discuss how to ensure Mrs May delivers on migration control and severs full links with the single market.
                        One source said: “We don’t trust the PM. She’s got off to a good start but the jury is out. The idea of an ongoing relationship with the EU is not acceptable.”

                        Boris Johnson expects to curb immigration and have free trade
                        One MP at the meeting suggested threatening to disrupt legislation if the PM went in the wrong direction. And Tory Eurosceptic Steve Baker, who was named chairman of the group, said MPs wanted to be “constructive,” and would be supportive if Mrs May kept her promises.
                        Tory Party chairman Patrick McLoughlin, asked if Brexit would end mass migration from Europe as many voters believed, said people had different reasons to vote to leave “but it does mean that we have to have control of our borders, yes”.

                        Tory Pary Chairman Patrick McLoughlin said "Brexit means Brexit" Controlling the borders Yes.
                        Amid speculation Mrs May could call a snap general election to capitalise on Labour turmoil, Mr McLoughlin promised Article 50 would be triggered first.
                        Tory MP Peter Bone said he was reassured by Mrs May’s appointment of key Eurosceptics to her Government: “Bringing in people like that has made it a lot easier for people like me to be more relaxed.”
                        The Daily Express is continuing its crusade, which was so instrumental in the referendum victory, to ensure the Government carries out the voters’ wishes.

                        Comment


                        • Personally I don't think sacrificing peace in Ireland and/or the union with Scotland on the alter of democracy is worth it.
                          Brexit will be a disaster for the UK and Ireland if it goes ahead. Perhaps a soft Brexit may limit the fallout, but then we've lost control and gained nothing.

                          Comment


                          • With zara on that. When Europe as a whole faces so many threats... the hoard of immigrants, on-going war in Ukraine and the Baltics threatened, the complete fiasco the euro has made of many nations economies it should be a case of "united we stand; divided we fall". Nor can I foresee 'Brexit' taking only two years after A50 is activated which will leave the UK in a state of limbo and damage investment, trade etc... You might not like the EU (I don't as most know) but to change the rules and workings of a club you have to be in it.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by snapper View Post
                              With zara on that. When Europe as a whole faces so many threats... the hoard of immigrants, on-going war in Ukraine and the Baltics threatened, the complete fiasco the euro has made of many nations economies it should be a case of "united we stand; divided we fall". Nor can I foresee 'Brexit' taking only two years after A50 is activated which will leave the UK in a state of limbo and damage investment, trade etc... You might not like the EU (I don't as most know) but to change the rules and workings of a club you have to be in it.
                              No you dont , without members it fails , then countries can go back to doing what they do best , being a country .

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by zara View Post
                                Personally I don't think sacrificing peace in Ireland and/or the union with Scotland on the alter of democracy is worth it.
                                Brexit will be a disaster for the UK and Ireland if it goes ahead. Perhaps a soft Brexit may limit the fallout, but then we've lost control and gained nothing.
                                Very Chamberlainian
                                No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                                To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                                Comment

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