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  • Toby
    replied
    Germany Needs Post-Brexit Trade Deal to Protect its Own Economy, Minister Says

    Germany needs to negotiate a new trade deal with the UK after Brexit to save its own economy from any potential fallout, a leading politician has said.
    Britain leaving the EU poses a “high risk” to the economy, Bavarian Finance Minister Ilse Aigner said, adding that the UK is one of “the most important trading partners” for the region.

    “We have to do everything to address the uncertainties that have arisen,” she said. “We have to find ways to put economic relations with the UK on a new foundation without fractures.”

    Her comments are in contrast to other EU politicians, who want Britain to “pay a price” for quitting the bloc in order to stop other member states from leaving.

    The Telegraph reports that Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat, whose country will hold the rotating EU presidency next year, said Britain must not get a “superior deal” after Brexit.

    “All of us have been pretty clear in our approach that we want a fair deal for the UK but that kind of fair deal can’t translate itself into a superior deal,” he said.

    “I know that there is absolutely no bluffing from the European side, at least in the council meetings I have attended, saying ‘we will start in this position and then we will soften up’. No, this is really and truly our position.”

    Ms Aigner’s comments suggest some in Europe may be nervous about punishing Britain for leaving the bloc. The UK is one of their biggest trading partners and any hit on the British economy would likely have a knock-on effect across the continent.

    However, Mr Muscat even went as far as questioning whether British Prime Minister Theresa May would trigger Article 50 to begin the formal process of leaving by the March deadline she has set herself.

    Downing Street responded that “the timetable remains to trigger Article 50 by the end of March next year.”

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  • zara
    replied
    I'm not sure leaving the EU without triggering Article 50 is such a good idea. Remember the Article 50 negotiations are about splitting up the assets and liabilities of the union, who pays for pension rights, who owns what buildings etc. We'd in effect be allowing the EU to keep it all.

    The new trading arrangement is negotiated either (we don't know yet) alongside the A50 negotiations or after the 2 years. If we simply withdrew, it would not only poison the well for future negotiations it would probably leave us open to legal challenge in the WTO for renegeing on our treaty obligations.

    The day after we left British goods would stop moving at Calais and other european ports. It would be the 'cliff edge' nightmare scenario that businesses have been warning about.

    And the idea that 'Europe needs us more than we need them' is utter self-delusion. It's just not reality.

    Leave a comment:


  • tankie
    replied
    Originally posted by kato View Post
    The "Why?" is pretty simple. Because EFTA won't let you in. Norway's already positioned itself.
    EFTA, FREE TRADE AREA , Norway as will the rest of the world , trade , why ? trade is trade and along with the rest of europe needs what you called ,the tiny island , Great Britain , but you EU need the UK ,much much more than we need you . Did you read the full post i posted kato , 911 ?
    Last edited by tankie; 26 Nov 16,, 11:56.

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  • kato
    replied
    The "Why?" is pretty simple. Because EFTA won't let you in. Norway's already positioned itself.

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  • Toby
    replied
    Originally posted by tankie View Post
    Try to get to the end , it sums it all up nicely .its opened my eyes .A whole lot more .And hopefully this should be brought to the attention of UK GOVT and the judiciary .


    BRITAIN TO JUST WALK: EUROPE has NO LEGAL JURISDICTION POST BREXIT VOTE

    Theresa May shouldn’t bother discussing anything with the EU
    Don’t trigger Article 50 – just leave


    By: Ingrid Detter de Frankopan 21/11/2016

    Despite my best attempts, .............
    Very interesting Thank you.
    Last edited by Toby; 25 Nov 16,, 23:16.

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  • tankie
    replied
    Try to get to the end , it sums it all up nicely .its opened my eyes .A whole lot more .And hopefully this should be brought to the attention of UK GOVT and the judiciary .


    BRITAIN TO JUST WALK: EUROPE has NO LEGAL JURISDICTION POST BREXIT VOTE

    Theresa May shouldn’t bother discussing anything with the EU
    Don’t trigger Article 50 – just leave


    By: Ingrid Detter de Frankopan 21/11/2016

    Despite my best attempts, says professor of international law Ingrid Detter de Frankopan, everyone has been deaf to the painstakingly simple course for the United Kingdom to take: don’t trigger Article 50 at all.

    Second rate lawyers are misleading everyone in the country by insisting that, in order to leave the European Union it is essential to “trigger” Article 50 in its entirety. This line has been swallowed whole by the government, the media and commentators.


    It is, however, absolute nonsense. Under international law and under Article 50 (1) itself, only notice to leave is necessary.

    The horror that I feel about this misdirection is compounded by that the fact that if Article 50(2) is ‘triggered’ it implies that the UK government accepts that the EU will decide the conditions of UK’s withdrawal.

    This has serious consequences.

    An arbitrary two-year negotiation window; a supreme agency problem between negotiating parties (the European Commission and various powerful governments) and a ratification process that is far from certain.

    All the while we will be contributing approximately £40bn gross, or £20bn net, to the European project.

    We will be paying for them to negotiate – and once we get to the end of the timeline there will be no real incentive to reach prompt agreement, as well as no reason to be true to their negotiated position.

    In fact any excuse of an election, a financial crisis or a small war – could derail years and millions of man-hours of work.

    Now turn this situation on its head.

    The United Kingdom withdraws from the European Union (as directed by the people of the country in the referendum of June 2016) in March 2017 with immediate effect.

    The European Union loses almost 14% of its revenues overnight. I suppose our mission / delegation will be received with a great deal more alacrity then they would otherwise.

    This would turn the screw on the Commission and force them to conclude negotiations rapidly.

    It would give them less of a chance to strike back, ask for an “exit” premium and force a rapid conclusion on all parties.

    While it is true that this could descend into a tariff war – it is likely that we would end up with this situation at the end of two years anyway.

    There is the Commission, 27 other governments with diverse objectives ranging from using Britain’s exit to foster greater unity or to underline the need for retaining sovereignty within the Union.



    }


    Most organisations have provisions for withdrawal of members in their constitutions.

    Should such provisions be lacking, there is still an implied power of member to leave.

    Every international organisation is founded on a multilateral treaty signed and ratified by its initial members.

    Other members may later join by accession to this treaty.

    But the treaty of an organisation has a double function: it is both a contractual agreement between the initial and later members as well as a constitution of the organisation they have created.

    But when there is a clause allowing a member state to withdraw, there is a further contractual aspect.

    In such a case the constitution of an organisation is coupled with a contractual right to withdraw from the established organisation.

    To withdraw from an organisation is an implied condition in the founding constitution, in the same way as the organisation enjoys implied powers to achieve the purposes for which it was created.

    But the current member states of the organisation remain its masters: they are free to amend the constitution, to extend or reduce the organisation or to abolish it should they so wish.

    Any member who longer wishes to be a member is always entitled to leave. Thus, there is always a unilateral right to withdraw from an organisation.

    The European Communities, later the European Union, lacked such provisions before the Lisbon Treaty inserted Article 50 to cater for states that wished to leave.

    But this article has been disastrously misunderstood by the numerous commentators that now consider themselves experts in the constitutional law of the European Union.

    In a sense, some states have left the European Communities/EC/EU, but this has happened so far only in certain very exceptional situations: Algeria left after its independence from France in 1962. After a referendum in Greenland in 1985, this “autonomous country” that is still under Danish sovereignty left the EC.

    Greenland was concerned about the overfishing by other European countries in its waters. Saint-Barthélemy, a former French colony in the Caribbean, left on its own demand when it attained independence, separating from Guadeloupe in 2007, and was converted into an associated overseas territory with effect from 2012.

    Some of those who have so far commented on the possible interpretation of Article 50 have been misled by attempting comparisons with “divorce” settlements. Others have, quite rightly, considered it necessary to have recourse to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties of 1969.

    But a closer look at Article 50 makes us realise that the Vienna Convention is not really relevant in this context: it only applies if there is no provision for withdrawal in a Treaty; and there is, precisely in Article 50.

    Why is it then so difficult to accept that Article 50 should be read and understood as it is phrased? Indeed, if we refer to the Vienna Convention in that context, we know that article 31 emphasises that

    “A treaty shall be interpreted in good faith in accordance with the ordinary meaning to be given to the terms of the treaty in their context and in the light of its object and purpose.”

    I have learnt to be suspicious of the European Union. I did set out much that had been little known about EU’s secret plans and projects in my recently published book The Suicide of Europe.

    Now I have been put on notice again. I asked myself why would the EU be to keen for the UK to leave at once?

    Immediately after the UK referendum on 23 June 2016, the president of the European Parliament, Martin Schultz, insisted, the UK government should contact the EU by Tuesday 28 June to indicate its intention to leave.

    Why this haste? I should have thought the EU would be pleased to receive a massive sum every week from the UK – whether or not it is exactly £375m or £166m after rebates and paybacks or any other sum; in any event it is a large sum.

    Why would the EU not be happy to accept this for as long as possible? Could it have something to do with Article 50? Well, before the Lisbon Treaty there was actually no right at all to leave the then EEC. (Article 312 EC, Article 51 TEU, and Article 208 of the EURATOM Treaty, all concluded for an unlimited time) This would seem to confirm the actual, real (but fairly secret plan to turn the EEC/EU into an irreversible federation.

    There were no provisions for exit in the earlier treaties. But there was a surge of protests from various member states, from academics and from courts, that it is not possible to keep sovereign states in an organisation against their will.

    There was an important judgment by the German Constitutional Court affirming the right to leave the EEC whatever the Treaties stipulate: Maastricht Urteil (BVerfGE 89, 155 of 12 October 1993). The court stated that the states are still “the masters of the treaties” and can always decide to abandon the organisation, revoking their acts of accession by a contrary unilateral denunciation.

    After severe criticism from many quarters of the federalist agenda, it was finally agreed to include a clause on withdrawal in the planned EU constitution.

    When this was not ratified the clause was incorporated in the Lisbon Treaty. The withdrawal clause confirmed that the EU is not (yet) a federal state.

    Again, the German Constitutional Court confirmed in the Lisbon Urteil (BVerfG, 2 BvE 2/08 of 30 June 2009) that the EU even under the Lisbon Treaty, is not (yet) a federal state.

    Therefore, constitutional safeguards of national identity still exist in the EU.


    As an aside, the Lisbon Treaty is not easily accessible as I have learned from scouting around for an official comprehensive copy that includes all modifications.

    The version of the Lisbon Treaty on the UK government’s website has a tag by the then foreign secretary, David Miliband, that “the text is illustrative and has no legal force”; the version on the EU site says “this version available for information only”.

    I then sent a formal request under the Freedom of Information Act to the FCO asking for an official comprehensive copy but I was told that there was no such copy available at the FCO. I should, I was told approach the government of Italy as that government is the depository of the Lisbon Treaty.

    Knowing Rome well, I shuddered at the thought of waiting for an official comprehensive copy of the Lisbon Treaty, preferably in English, in the corridors of the Italian Foreign Ministry.

    But the Article 50 we do have provides that:

    1. Any member state may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

    2. A member state which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention.

    In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that state, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.

    That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

    It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

    3. The treaties shall cease to apply to the state in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the member state concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

    4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing member state shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

    A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

    5. If a state which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

    Thus, as provided in Article 50(1), a Member State may withdraw without any other conditions “in accordance with its own constitutional arrangements”.

    Since the United Kingdom is singularly fortunate in this situation that there is no written constitution, the UK is clearly free to act in any way it sees fit and proper.

    It is important to stress that there is no need for any agreement at all with the EU. (The UK is also fortunate not to have the euro as a withdrawal for the eurozone states is much more complicated).

    The option is there under article 50 (2) to negotiate further relationships with the EU. But we may not wish to do that. It may even be extremely unwise to do so. Nor are we obliged to discuss anything.

    But if we do start engaging under article 50(2) we may live to regret that as the EU can drag out such negotiations endlessly. The EU might even introduce new conditions and requirements.

    Under article 50(3) the treaties will only cease to apply from the date of the withdrawal agreement “or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2,”.

    This implies that there may not be any “withdrawal agreement” in which case the two year period becomes relevant. But if the UK only exercises its right to withdraw from the EU under article 50(1) there is no need for any “agreement”.

    In the media I see endless comments and discussion about who is going to be in the ‘negotiating team’ in Brussels.

    Have the UK’s leading politicians not yet learned that by entering at all in such discussions we just show our weakness: we have the right to leave and the EU has no right to stop our immediate exit not to impose any conditions.

    So the notice under article 50(2) is sheer folly. Are the “experts” – so wrong in their predictions about the referendum – that have indoctrinated everyone about the need to “trigger” and the need to “negotiate”? Could there be some self-interest there for the experts to be consulted?

    Under international law and under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties of 1969 the UK is entitled to leave by mere notice under article 50(1).

    There is no need to “trigger” further agreements or discussions with the EU. The UK even has the right to leave at once.

    Since law, medicine and even politics are all based on common sense it would seem to me that the main and urgent issue is to disentangle ourselves as soon as possible from the rules and regulations of the EU. Why would we want to engage and discuss “trade deals”.

    What trade deals? The EU has taken years and years to negotiate a string of trade deals that are not even that advantageous to the UK.

    Surely the UK could just start its own trading under other arrangements? As an expert on treaty law, I fail to understand why you need any “trade agreements” to trade?

    I agree with businessmen like Tim Martin of Wetherspoon and Lord Bamford of Bamford JCB that to trade you just trade.

    Another fallacy I see in the daily press is that “staying in the single market implies a duty to accept free movement of labour”. Why? There is no organisation called “The Single Market”.


    EFTA was and still is a free trade area but certainly without any free movement of persons. The EEC/EU was established as a customs union and then adopted free movement of goods, money and persons as basic non-negotiable rules.

    But the UK is leaving this customs union, allowing the possibility for truly international trade world-wide.

    The discrimination against developing countries outside the EU, many members of the British Commonwealth, will cease. The EU dumping in such countries will be reduced by absence in such despicable schemes by the forceful UK.

    We should be suspicious: the haste on the part of the EU is surely due to the urge for the UK to “trigger Article 50” as the expression now goes. Nothing obliges the UK to “trigger” anything short of notifying the EU under article 50(1) that it is leaving. To ‘trigger’ article 50(2) we leave ourselves again in the uncertain but domineering hands of the EU.

    The word “guidelines” in that paragraph illustrates that we are not talking about any compulsory rules or any compulsory procedure.

    It is article 50(1) that gives the United Kingdom as definite and unconditional right to leave the European Union.

    We should be circumspect in entering in further discussion and fear the EU pretending to be bearing gifts. Dona ferentes has historical lessons to teach us.

    The EU needs the UK far more than the UK needs the EU and we have nothing to gain from “discussions” or further “agreements” – unless such agreements are with non-EU states such as the United States, India, Brazil and China. There is the future.
    Last edited by tankie; 25 Nov 16,, 21:18.

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  • Toby
    replied
    Originally posted by zara View Post
    Economic policy is not about being 'symbolic'. That's nuts!

    I'm not talking down to you, Im just asking for specifics. You appear to want to abolish regulation because it came from the EU, not because of any practical or thoughtful reason. Just tell me what these appalling and terrible regulations are that you want rid of so badly?

    And your statement that 100 billion is nothing compared to the UK debt of 2 trillion further enforces my point. With such a huge debt how can you even contemplate a tax cut that high?

    Even if we took your radical solution of cancelling the pensions of 400,000 people what then? Who pays for their care? the government thats who!
    Regulations on business's create added cost. By reducing the amount of regulation will decrease running costs. Did you not know that? Clearly different regs will apply to different types of business's. I mean there's too many to be bothered about specifics. But ok just to indulge you, I now have to have an F Gas certificate which I paid £350 approx for. I've operated for 20 years buying refrigerant without one, but now because a politician signed something my overheads just went up. How about DPF filters on Diesel vehicles.....A politician signs something and now all vehicle manufacturers have to provide a device to collect soot particles, only they don't work after a short time and cost the owner of the vehicle a lot of money to put right....Massive cost burden put on us by a dumb politician. They couldn't wait for the technology to be perfected...They just introduce legislation regardless. Also now we're being told we have to introduce a pension scheme for employee's, its never ending.

    Axe VAT as a symbolic act and reintroduce a purchase tax at a lower rate....This will trigger greater spending on the high street and help create more tax revenues for the treasury , its a real no brainer!
    I'm a libertarian Zara so I don't believe in big government. Big government, bigger problems...Small government smaller problems......

    At the end of the day £5 or £5 trillion pound is just a promise to pay and you either can pay it or you can't. Does it not occur to anybody that this money doesn't really exist? The only thing that exists is the promise to pay. People and countries need to be in debt so other people can charge interest and grow the global economy....Just one big Ponzi scheme really and not worth losing any sleep over.
    Last edited by Toby; 25 Nov 16,, 20:08.

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  • zara
    replied
    Originally posted by tankie View Post
    /\ you may just get what you wish for yet .
    I wish you were right, but I just cant see a path to that. Labour will support triggering Article 50 and May will do it in March. The EU wont give us a soft Brexit option, so after 2 years we are out regardless of the consequences.

    If the lib dems win richmond next week it may be a glimmer of hope for remainers, but the polls dont show they will.

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  • tankie
    replied
    /\ you may just get what you wish for yet .

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  • zara
    replied
    Originally posted by snapper View Post
    Could it not be argued that cutting VAT would actually free more money for people to spend on other things - boost the economy and so add to tax revenue?
    That was suggested in the 2008 financial crisis, but the government chose to increase VAT instead. They argued that there was no example that could be given where that approach had worked.

    They've already promised to cut corporation tax to 15%. We have a crumbling NHS, a cash starved military, rising poverty and an ageing population. We'd need deep deep cuts if we were to do something as drastic as eliminating VAT. I think we'd end up at the IMF if we tried that appoach.

    Here's a much better and cheaper solution:

    Don't leave the EU.

    Leave a comment:


  • snapper
    replied
    Could it not be argued that cutting VAT would actually free more money for people to spend on other things - boost the economy and so add to tax revenue?

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  • zara
    replied
    Originally posted by tankie View Post
    hahahahahaha good Q ,out , for the greater good ,and the fact i have just received my state pension , lol me me me me huh , but if we have to remain , do you think oap,s money will be comparable ??? , the Greek pensions being top of the list , even Eire has better with added benefits . UK will NOT go up , alas it will be reduced , hammond has seen to this .

    Have you googled it ref kato;s post ?
    Im not saying that if we remained Pensions would go up. But leaving makes us all poorer and leaves less room for the government to help pensioners. The triple lock is already under threat. The coming inflation is really going to hurt pensioners and the treasury do not have the funds to help thanks to brexit.

    It's ok I dont need to google, I beleive you.

    My dad did really well out his pension. He didnt even realise this till after he retired, but because in worked in Eire for 19 years he gets a state pension of around €200 a week plus the British pension of £160 (I think) He also gets a pension from the US company he worked for in Northern Ireland for years. He says hes got more money now than when he was actually working! I know hes one of the lucky few..

    Hes worried that Brexit may mean the Irish government wont have to pay him their pension.

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  • tankie
    replied
    Originally posted by zara View Post
    Im confused Tankie, If UK pensions are such a concern to you why on earth did you vote to Leave?
    hahahahahaha good Q ,out , for the greater good ,and the fact i have just received my state pension , lol me me me me huh , but if we have to remain , do you think oap,s money will be comparable ??? , the Greek pensions being top of the list , even Eire has better with added benefits . UK will NOT go up , alas it will be reduced , hammond has seen to this .

    Have you googled it ref kato;s post ?

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  • zara
    replied
    Im confused Tankie, If UK pensions are such a concern to you why on earth did you vote to Leave?

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  • tankie
    replied
    Originally posted by zara View Post
    Oh I didnt know, just assumed Tankie was right..
    Single person in the UK is app 120 pounds a week up to 155 per week ,so Germans get much more than the worlds most deserving pensioners ,Englishmen .

    The normal retirement age for everyone born after 1964 is 67 years. Women who take time off to have children have their contributions topped up by the state. But an OECD report published this week shows that Germany has the widest pension benefits gap between men and women in Europe and the US. The average monthly pension received is around €1,052 (£767.46) for men in the old West German states, and €1,006 (£733.9) for those in the old East German states, while for women the figures are €521 (£380) and €705 (£514).



    Wiki gives a different amount tho


    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rc...NmIN5rEbyJ_7zw
    Last edited by tankie; 25 Nov 16,, 10:56.

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