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Poland swings 'right'.

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  • snapper
    replied
    Originally posted by kato View Post
    Any sort of attaching themselves to Ukraine further estranges Poland from Europe, and they know that.
    Not sure 'estrangement from Europe' is such a concern for PiS and anyway 'intermarium' is the logical continuation of the Eastern Partnership. Frankly given that Ukraine is potentially as strong and wealthier than Poland it would madness for Poland NOT to be involved economically and militarily; why fight on the Vistula when you can defend the Dnieper? To Piłsudski Ukraine was vital; “There can be no independent Poland without an independent Ukraine” he said and at the end said “My life is lost. I failed to create the free from the Russians Ukraine”.

    Already we have LITPOLUKRBRIG and V4 expansion talk with Romania, Lithuania and Ukraine potentially making it V7 with it's own combined military force (currently V4EUBAT). Both the V4BAT and LITPOLUKRBRIG will use English as an operational language so it doesn't take a great leap of imagination to see the two combined. Moreover given other NATO members unlikeliness to agree Ukrainian NATO membership an intermarium or CEE Alliance provides security for non NATO members - Georgia, Ukraine, Finland and Sweden perhaps. A new Polish/Swedish defence agreement was signed recently and a Polish/Lithuanian/Ukrainian gas interconnector project deal signed last week as Poland and Lithuania both now have LNG terminals and a Ukrainian one planned.

    I will be honest and say I have long thought this is best way to restore a balance of power within Central Europe; with the 'liberation' of Ukraine a strong Warsawa - Kyiv - Bucharest alliance is the best way to ensure the security of Central Europe and provide a 'third way' within the larger European political scene. I do not see Poland as dominant in any such future alliance - it certainly would not be by population even if a 'New Commonwealth' were created as some Belarussians would wish but in the start Poland must take the leadership role.

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  • kato
    replied
    Originally posted by Doktor View Post
    But, they had their more centric right. Didn't work I guess.
    PO pretty much lost its voter base by increasing taxes when they said they'd lower them.

    Originally posted by snapper View Post
    I am not sure this is a condition or requirement since it would be impossible anyway; Ukraine has a higher population than Poland by itself.
    Any sort of attaching themselves to Ukraine further estranges Poland from Europe, and they know that.

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  • snapper
    replied
    Originally posted by kato View Post
    Under Polish "guidance", given that within the area he includes there the Polish population remains the majority...
    I am not sure this is a condition or requirement since it would be impossible anyway; Ukraine has a higher population than Poland by itself.

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  • Doktor
    replied
    Originally posted by kato View Post
    Under Polish "guidance", given that within the area he includes there the Polish population remains the majority...


    The CSU in Germany is running a similar concept (christian-social), although with less populism and a bit less extreme. Basically highly conservative with social responsibility stemming from christian values. The voter spectrum also tends to be the same.
    But, they had their more centric right. Didn't work I guess.

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  • kato
    replied
    Originally posted by snapper View Post
    Given Duda's preference for a Międzymorze/Intermarium "from the Baltic to Black and Adriatic seas"
    Under Polish "guidance", given that within the area he includes there the Polish population remains the majority...

    Originally posted by snapper View Post
    What does a "socio-clerical touch" mean? Increased benefits, lowering pension age etc is normally regarded as 'left wing' I thought but perhaps I am mistaken in this or maybe you just wish to use another name?
    The CSU in Germany is running a similar concept (christian-social), although with less populism and a bit less extreme. Basically highly conservative with social responsibility stemming from christian values. The voter spectrum also tends to be the same.

    Leave a comment:


  • snapper
    replied
    Originally posted by kato View Post
    Eh, that's mostly rhetorics. They're nationalist conservatives with a socio-clerical touch.

    Given that Orban's election resulted in 3% of the Hungarian population fleeing the country if Poland matches that that will be "fun" in the next couple years.
    Given Duda's preference for a Międzymorze/Intermarium "from the Baltic to Black and Adriatic seas" I cannot see how this relates to 'nationalism' in the normal sense. What does a "socio-clerical touch" mean? Increased benefits, lowering pension age etc is normally regarded as 'left wing' I thought but perhaps I am mistaken in this or maybe you just wish to use another name? It remains to be seen of course if they can balance a budget and without that they are going nowhere fast.

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  • kato
    replied
    Originally posted by snapper View Post
    PiS is considerably more 'left wing' economically than the former Government
    Eh, that's mostly rhetorics. They're nationalist conservatives with a socio-clerical touch.

    Given that Orban's election resulted in 3% of the Hungarian population fleeing the country if Poland matches that that will be "fun" in the next couple years.

    Leave a comment:


  • snapper
    started a topic Poland swings 'right'.

    Poland swings 'right'.

    Polish Parliamentary (Sejm) elections yesterday have resulted in a win for what is considered the more right wing Law and Justice Party (PiS). The former Government of Civic Platform (PO) conceded defeat after the exit poll predicted a PiS vote of 39% compared to PO vote of some 24%.

    The PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski (identical twin of Lech Kaczynski who died in the Smolensk air crash) is not likely to become Prime Minister, the proposed PM is Beata Szydlo, who ran Duda's successful Presidential campaign. If the exit polls prove correct PiS may have a slim majority in the Sejm and not need to form a coalition. This has not been achieved in Poland since the fall of communism. Again IF the exit polls prove correct none of the former communist parties will manage to gain a sufficient percentage of the vote to be represented in the Sejm. Meanwhile some have expressed concern of a 'PiS dictatorship' with changes in the Constitution, absolute banning of abortion etc etc sighted as fears. Others speak of the 'Orbanisation' of Poland referring to Viktor Orban, the PM of Hungary. Many are surprised that during 2 terms of sustained economic growth lead by the Civic Platform Party that Poles, who are probably as a country richer than at any time in the past consider it wise to do away with a proven formula.

    Politics in Central Europe is not like that of France, UK, US and Canada etc; left and right mean different things. PiS is considerably more 'left wing' economically than the former Government; benefit increases and tax breaks are promised as well as lower retirement age. Presumably alot of funding for the rural areas in the eastern half of Poland, from which core support derives will come too. Meanwhile in foreign policy they are more traditionally 'right wing'; defence expenditure is likely to rise, the 'citizen militias' be incorporated into a Ukrainian style 'National Guard', support for Ukraine and the Międzymorze/Intermarium increase and the NATO commitment rise. They are very unlikely to enter the euro and are more 'euroskeptic' in the sense of some British Conservatives; "The issue of sovereignty is a very basic one for us. In this aspect, I generally share position of PM Cameron" said President Duda.
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