Germany's Refugee Crisis

[bolo121]

Which are diluted among the general population. Several thousand at federal level make a few hundred at most at state level; a few dozen per district or region; at most a dozen per city; in the end you're at those 5-10 kids.

Unaccompanied minors don't go into the general refugee system btw, but are settled into the existing distributed youth care system for orphans and such.

Diluted, good joke.
Germans barely have children. These guys will have minimum 3. 5 kids and 2 wives is the really common scenario here.
It happened to my community, we were outbred and then outspent, now our old areas are part of muslim area of Bangalore.
You are screwed, 50 odd years from now when you are a minority in many urban centers your liberal western culture driven out, then you will cry.

[Oracle]

Refugee crisis: German man takes in 24 asylum-seekers and describes his 'disappointing' experience

Contrary view.

[kato]

You are screwed, 50 odd years from now when you are a minority in many urban centers your liberal western culture driven out, then you will cry.

Fifty years? We already have between 30% and 40% people "with a migration background" in the cities (i.e. people who immigrated or at least one of their parents immigrated). At least in the West. Give it ten years at most if we keep current levels of refugees.

You ever heard of ghettos. Anyway your country, your future. I will probably give Germany 100 years before the culture changes......

Ghettos are subject to social movement. The cheap housing built in the 50s to house many of the 14 million we inherited from east of the Oder-Neisse line was essentially turned over to four million Turks and Italians in the 70s. Then those turned it over to the four million "Germans" and others we got from East Germany and the Soviet Union in the early 90s. Now those are about to turn it over to the next group.

Refugee crisis: German man takes in 24 asylum-seekers and describes his 'disappointing' experience

Contrary view.

With the caveat that that's from Berlin. Berlin isn't representative for Germany.

Anyway, as an update of numbers: The source share of refugees in Germany has shifted somewhat; in my state, 17300 people requested asylum during October - 46% were Syrians, 15% Afghans and 12% Iraqi. The West Balkan countries, resulting from declaring them "safe states" only contributed around 4% of refugees last month.

[tankie]

And just how do you know that 46 % were Syrian , etc etc ??? the sale of black mkt passports have soared ?

[667medic]

Fifty years? We already have between 30% and 40% people "with a migration background" in the cities (i.e. people who immigrated or at least one of their parents immigrated). At least in the West. Give it ten years at most if we keep current levels of refugees.


Ghettos are subject to social movement. The cheap housing built in the 50s to house many of the 14 million we inherited from east of the Oder-Neisse line was essentially turned over to four million Turks and Italians in the 70s. Then those turned it over to the four million "Germans" and others we got from East Germany and the Soviet Union in the early 90s. Now those are about to turn it over to the next group.


With the caveat that that's from Berlin. Berlin isn't representative for Germany.

Anyway, as an update of numbers: The source share of refugees in Germany has shifted somewhat; in my state, 17300 people requested asylum during October - 46% were Syrians, 15% Afghans and 12% Iraqi. The West Balkan countries, resulting from declaring them "safe states" only contributed around 4% of refugees last month.

I am confused, earlier you mentioned that the immigrants will get diluted and now you acknowledge the possibility of ghettos, which are essentially areas with heavy concentrations of minorities, outcasts etc under economic or social pressure. The huge influx includes a significant male only population for now who will likely be joined by their extended family in the future unless of course they decide to hit local girls.

Could you care to explain your definition of social movement. What kind of social movement do you foresee in uneducated, low skilled people and there is no certainty what percent of the migrants are even willing to work...

[tbm3fan]

Which are diluted among the general population. Several thousand at federal level make a few hundred at most at state level; a few dozen per district or region; at most a dozen per city; in the end you're at those 5-10 kids.

Unaccompanied minors don't go into the general refugee system btw, but are settled into the existing distributed youth care system for orphans and such.

You're serious? Germany is only 137,000 sq. miles while California is 163,000 sq. miles. California's size sure didn't stop any gangs from being formed some of which are nationwide now like MS-13.

I hate to say it but you are living in a dream world. I tend towards center/liberal. However you'll never hear me talk like a liberal in that all we need to do is blah, blah, blah for so and so (throw benes their way) and all will be kumbaya. It just doesn't work that way.

[kato]

And just how do you know that 46 % were Syrian , etc etc ??? the sale of black mkt passports have soared ?

How likely is an Albanian who looks Syrian and speaks Arabic? At most you'll have some Lebanese and Iraqis will slip in that way in the long term.

I am confused, earlier you mentioned that the immigrants will get diluted and now you acknowledge the possibility of ghettos, which are essentially areas with heavy concentrations of minorities, outcasts etc under economic or social pressure.

Not their possibility, their existence. Asylum seekers are - without their own choice - distributed among states and municipalities and thus diluted. If they get a job and make money for rent they can choose where they'll live - and there'll be a proportion that'll move into the ghettos - but without that they have to take the housing given to them by the municipality they're distributed to.

The huge influx includes a significant male only population for now who will likely be joined by their extended family in the future unless of course they decide to hit local girls.

German immigration law limits family reunion to spouses and pre-existing minor children (and even children above age 16 only to a limited extent). Spouses immigrating under family reunion have to prove German knowledge and go through mandatory integration courses.

Could you care to explain your definition of social movement. What kind of social movement do you foresee in uneducated, low skilled people and there is no certainty what percent of the migrants are even willing to work...

I know a portuguese "guest worker" immigrant who can't read or write, doesn't speak proper Portuguese or German, and worked as sort of a janitor in factories. His son is the university-educated press spokesman of a major IT company with around 8,000 employees. My neighbors are a Turkish family where the grandfather worked as a cook after immigrating, and the four children now run a business of around a dozen shops in town, with financial stakes in two dozen more. One of the guys who works for me has an Italian grandfather who came as an uneducated railroad tracklayer, his parents learned proper trades and he is going to university.

Extreme examples, but once you look at a full generation you can see movement.

You're serious? Germany is only 137,000 sq. miles while California is 163,000 sq. miles. California's size sure didn't stop any gangs from being formed some of which are nationwide now like MS-13.

California has around 0.5 police officers per square mile. Germany has 1.8.

[Doktor]

How different does a Syrian looks compared to a Palestinian, Turk, Kurd, Iraqi, Lebanese, even Saudi?

On the rest of the topic. Don't you miss several hundreds if not thousands from the shelter housings?

[bolo121]

Fifty years? We already have between 30% and 40% people "with a migration background" in the cities (i.e. people who immigrated or at least one of their parents immigrated). At least in the West. Give it ten years at most if we keep current levels of refugees.
Ghettos are subject to social movement. The cheap housing built in the 50s to house many of the 14 million we inherited from east of the Oder-Neisse line was essentially turned over to four million Turks and Italians in the 70s. Then those turned it over to the four million "Germans" and others we got from East Germany and the Soviet Union in the early 90s. Now those are about to turn it over to the next group.

Oh puhlease you and I both know you never had any situation like now where you have hordes of young Islamic middle eastern men, many already radicalized coming in.
You got lucky with the Turks because their economic situation improved so much. With this lot who are economic immigrants plus a few genuine war refugees you wont have any such luck.
Just sit in your nice ICE trains and go to france. Their banlieue are a free preview for you.
They will settle they wil make large families, import imams and set up mosques. Before you know it ta da! urban Ghetto.

[kato]

import imams and set up mosques

Which DITIB, the Turkish state religious office, is currently trying to prevent. Can't infringe on their monopoly after all.

'sides, we're not only getting muslims. During 2014, 63.3% of asylum seekers were muslim (of any denomination), 24.6% were christian, 3.7% were yazidi and 1.3% were hindu.

[kato]

How different does a Syrian looks compared to a Palestinian, Turk, Kurd, Iraqi, Lebanese, even Saudi?

... ever look at one? That's about like saying you can't differentiate between a Han Chinese, a Korean and a Japanese.

[tbm3fan]

California has around 0.5 police officers per square mile. Germany has 1.8.

Far be it from me to continue to rain on your parade. I'll just wait for the day when the storm hits.

Germany might be a future example in disruptive technology in the form of disruptive immigration.

Good luck.

[Doktor]

... ever look at one? That's about like saying you can't differentiate between a Han Chinese, a Korean and a Japanese.

So your police officere are experts. I have been watching DW article where local authorities say the can't find Translators from Arabic. Someone would have thought... oh, nevermind what tbm said.

[Mihais]

... ever look at one? That's about like saying you can't differentiate between a Han Chinese, a Korean and a Japanese.

Racist.

[tantalus]

Far be it from me to continue to rain on your parade. I'll just wait for the day when the storm hits.

Germany might be a future example in disruptive technology in the form of disruptive immigration.

Good luck.

Maybe it might be best to outline what represents success and what represents failure beforehand, given there is going to be some of both.

How much future disruption to german society is worth trading against the amount of good that can be achieved by helping hundreds of thousands of people fleeing war?