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Bloody outcome in Kiev, Feb.19, 2014

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  • JAD_333
    replied
    Closing thread.

    Post Ukraine topics here:

    http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/int...ld-war-25.html

    or

    http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/eur...ng-crimea.html

    Leave a comment:


  • JAD_333
    replied
    Everyone:

    We have more than 5 threads dealing with Ukraine, some started before Russia took Crimea and some after.

    Does anyone have an opinion about closing and/or consolidating some of these threads.

    Thoughts please.

    Leave a comment:


  • Noitartst
    replied
    As I see it, Crimea marks the start of a less-cold Cold War. Not as severe, probably not as long, and probably not as unpleasant, but still cold.

    For the record, I've been blogging about it, here:
    Noitartst | Come Muse With Me

    Me, I'm waiting for the next nation of tension twixt the West and Russia. Me, I'm thinking Belarus. If there were protests like the ones in Ukraine, I wonder....

    Leave a comment:


  • drhuy
    replied
    Originally posted by JAD_333 View Post
    Unless you can provide proof, I ask that you don't offend our Russian members with unfounded accusations.
    ok, so I will call them the Russian unpaid posters :tankie:
    Last edited by drhuy; 26 Mar 14,, 18:14.

    Leave a comment:


  • JAD_333
    replied
    Originally posted by drhuy View Post

    Btw, dont let the Russian paid posters keep you away from the truths:
    Unless you can provide proof, I ask that you don't offend our Russian members with unfounded accusations.

    Leave a comment:


  • drhuy
    replied
    sooo when will Putin send his masked men to Alaska? After all, it used to belong to Russia, and obviously, Tsar made a mistake just like Khrushev did.

    Btw, dont let the Russian paid posters keep you away from the truths:

    1. There's no country on earth has more neo-nazis than Russia.

    2. Crimea, a part of Ukraine territory, recognized by the whole world, Russian included, was invaded BEFORE any phony referendum carried out.

    3. The annex of Crimea and the internal politics turmoil of Ukraine before that are 2 different issues.

    Leave a comment:


  • MrSecond
    replied
    By the way, Minskaya's parents left Zaporozhye just in time as the marks of unrest started to appear in this city.

    Video - supporters from Melitopol were going to pro-Russian meeting in Zaporozhye but in entry of the city they were blocked by "maidan self-defence" armed with steel armature and hammers.

    Leave a comment:


  • Taurkon
    replied
    Originally posted by Firestorm View Post
    Did Kosovo become a precedent?
    It could be argued by both sides... From 30,000 ft I'd say yes, although the Russians would argue they were preempting conflict, where the Yanks might argue they were putting an end to ethnic cleansing..

    Leave a comment:


  • Firestorm
    replied
    Originally posted by Oracle View Post
    #2. Also, does the Crimean people exercising the right to secede from Ukraine become a precedent?
    Did Kosovo become a precedent?

    Leave a comment:


  • MrSecond
    replied
    Originally posted by bonehead View Post
    Question. Say the Ukraine does break up. How does that really affect Russia?
    There are some main problems.

    1) Problems of migration
    2) Problems connected with gas and oil transit to Europe
    3) Problems of military security– the Russia’s Black Sea Fleet



    Let's look at them in more detail.

    Bad scenario– disintegration of Ukraine into two contradictory parts, or into a bigger number of conflicting territories. Probable centers of military conflicts.

    Probable warring parties. Probable centers (sources) of power in Ukraine

    a) Western Ukraine, Lvov. The center of the Ukrainian nationalist ideology confessingrussophobia and the principle "one country - one nation". The Ukrainian nationalists are opponents of polyethnicity, they sincerely hate Russia and Russians. Political party – Svoboda (Freedom) of Oleg Tyagnibok. The militarized political organization - Dmitry Yarosh's Right sector. Many activists of the nationalist organizations took part in the Chechen wars on the side of Chechen separatists.

    b) Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Base – Sevastopol. In case of uncontrollable disintegration of Ukraine the BSF quickly and inevitably becomes the natural target for Ukrainian nationalists and neo-nazis, as a withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian territory was always the basic element of their political program.

    c) The remains of governmental silovik structures – capable divisions of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Defence which keep loyalty to the central government. In case of disintegration of Ukraine they both can resist to nationalistic fighters and can join them. Depends on situation, location etc. In the city of Kiev the police actually withdrew from control over the city. In Kharkov, Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa and other cities of the South-East the police submits to Kiev government, however doesn’t undertake any active actions against growing unhappiness of the local population. That’s why to arrest activists of pro-Russian movements (Anton Davydchenko - Odessa, Pavel Gubarev - Donetsk, Arsen Klinchayev and Alexander Kharitonov - Lugansk) Kiev have to send police groups from Western and Central Ukraine. In Kharkov on March 16 the local police was involved at shooting with Right Sector group. The R-Sec neo-nazi fighters armed with rifles attacked the pro-Russian protesters and killed two of them. Nevertheless, the revolutionary Kiev government more and more relies on the Right Sector. In Odessa (which has strong pro-Russian movement) Right Sector fighters are used as guards for the local SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) building.

    d) c) Crimean Tatars. Within 23 years after gaining independence, the central Ukrainian authorities tried to use the Crimean Tatars’ factor for splitting of the Crimean society which always leaned towards Russia. The anti-Russian moods among Tatars were in every possible way encouraged by Kiev, Tatars were used for intimidation of Russian and Ukrainian population with a threat of ethnic conflict. In Crimea the Ukrainian government even approved and encouraged activities of international Islamic organization Hizb-ut-Tahrir which is recognized as terrorist organization in many countries.

    However, the referendum which was held on March 16, revealed the Crimean Tatars are substantially pro-Russian and don't support Kiev policy. Only the top of the Tatars’ political organization – Milli Meclis - continues to keep loyalty to Kiev.

    Watching the current events we can see in Ukraine there is a serious potential for internal civil conflict, potentially capable to develop into large scale civil war. It is necessary to notice that even if the Russian authorities and its armed forces hadn't interfered internal affairs of Ukraine, this would happen spontaneously. The Russia’s neighboring regions would be involved in conflict inevitably. The fighters of Cossack organizations and volunteers from other militarized associations would go to aid to the Russian cities of the South-East. On the other hand, the Islamist fighters from North Caucasus’ regions – Dagestan, Chechnya, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia - would leave for Ukraine to help the Ukrainian nationalists to fight against Russia. Being in Russia in clandestine position, under pressure of FSB, in Ukraine (and Crimea) these Islamists would unite first of all with the movement Hizb-ut-Tahrir. Thus, Russia would get towards its western borders not only a problem with the Ukrainian nationalists, but also one more Islamic front. Having taken control over Crimea, Russia created the strong back for the Russian South-East of Ukraine, and also eliminated the threat of appearance of the terrorist front.

    It’s unnecessary to notice such standard satellites of wars as flows of refugees. The South of Russia that is next to Ukraine – the most multinational and most populated region of Russia. Any sharp changes of ethnic balance in the region would inevitably cause conflicts.

    Security problems for the Russian gas transit

    Ukraine is an important country for the Russian economy. The Ukrainian plants make some important components for the Russian military industry, power industry, mechanical engineering. But the crucial importance for the Russian state budget is the Ukrainian gas transmission system through which the Russian gas arrives to Europe. During the whole years of independence all Ukrainian political life circulated around the issue of control over gas flow, that meant also the cash flow from Russia.
    All political clans of Ukraine fought for control over "pipe". Yulia Timoshenko, being the then prime minister, called the gas transmission system the "national pride".

    Any problems with gas transit will have fast and essential impact on a financial condition of Gazprom, so as the government of Russia. The serious problem for Russia is that the pipeline passes through the territory of the Central and Western Ukraine, which is under Kiev government control. So a splitting off the Russian Southeast from Kiev, Russia all the same won't receive control over gas transit and won't ensure its safety. Through the territory of the South-East only the southern branch passes to Romania and Bulgaria. Already there are calls of leaders of the Right sector to blow up the oil pipeline which passes through Ukraine to Europe.
    Besides, Ukraine has 8 nuclear power plants and in case the civil war starts, Europe and Russia will be under the threat of ecological disaster.

    Leave a comment:


  • Goatboy
    replied
    France threatens to cancel military ship deal with Russia - latimes.com
    And the second ship in the class to be delivered to Russia has the unfortunate name "Sevastopol" -- not an appropriate moniker for a new Russian vessel constructed in a French shipyard currently I'm guessing....
    Last edited by Goatboy; 19 Mar 14,, 11:46.

    Leave a comment:


  • cyppok
    replied
    Originally posted by MrSecond View Post

    They are not gangsters. They are member of parliament and his comrades coming into office of national TV channel in Kiev.
    The TV channel showed the ceremony of signing agreement between Russia and Crimea in Moscow.
    That's why director of the channel was accused at being Russian spy.
    You are missing the big picture a little bit.

    There is no party of regions to oppose (they exist but effectively stifled and quiet opposition).
    Yatsenuk and Svoboda are begining to have rifts over this.
    While 'right sector' is splitting the grass root movement from underneath. Ergo Yarsh voiced "right sector" position that they are 1) against both Nato and Eu [which diametrically opposes all 3 bought opposition leaders] and 2) he is going to Donetsk to negotiate

    notice not one of them and even Klitchko (whom went to Donetsk and was told to get out after he started spewing dogma) went there to negotiate. They want their will either imposed or followed but nobody wants to negotiate.

    Svoboda is being thrown under the train basically if you notice in ukr-news sites. If this accelerates a bit as we get closer to elections you will have a government that would be at each others throats essentially.

    we are about 2-3 months from harvest time(on right side down calendar), which is a major forex inflow.
    http://www.noggersblog.co.uk/prices/blog/Ukraine2.png

    Leave a comment:


  • MrSecond
    replied
    Freedom of Speach in Kiev now



    They are not gangsters. They are member of parliament and his comrades coming into office of national TV channel in Kiev.
    The TV channel showed the ceremony of signing agreement between Russia and Crimea in Moscow.
    That's why director of the channel was accused at being Russian spy.

    Leave a comment:


  • Oracle
    replied
    #1. Russia takes over Crimea. Does it mean giving silent go-ahead to other nations to dis-regard international obligations and usurp land they deem theirs?

    #2. Also, does the Crimean people exercising the right to secede from Ukraine become a precedent?
    Last edited by Oracle; 18 Mar 14,, 17:44.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zampolit
    replied
    It's good to see some Russians were kept in the illegal Crimean referendum, the turn out in Sevastopol was 123% - not quite upto the 146% turnout in Rostov in the last Russian elections but a good start.
    it's a well known mistake of Interfax agency in numbers: 1523 563 votes for Russia according to TsIK briefing (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBf7...utu.be&t=3m55s), not 1723563 as it was in Interfax message. It gives roughly 270k votes for Russia in Sevastopol, or 93 % of votes and 70% of population (including newborn babies).
    Last edited by Zampolit; 18 Mar 14,, 16:42.

    Leave a comment:

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