Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Bloody outcome in Kiev, Feb.19, 2014

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Does anyone else besides me think there is going to be a counter-coup in the next few weeks?

    1)The only way Ukraine as an entity survives is if South-East becomes autonomous and Russian is made second official. (besides representative elections and complete purge of parties in power). Otherwise future is kind of bleak. My sense is that if the above happens they will enter the customs union and ban Svoboda etc...

    2)I am slowly coming to realize why Yanukovich is more important even now. People also forget that Kluyev was shot and is in hiding. Seems so sad that because he(Yanukovich) didn't crack down hard enough people have to go through this tumult.

    3)Fyi 16 days till reality. Lots of things are due on the 30th btw... There is also this feeling that in the background there is severe bargaining going on. Almost makes me want to quote from Machaiveli's "The Prince" about neutrality. P.122 for anyone curious since its' almost the entire page. It really feels like one of this choosing sides 'zatishye' 'quiet time' before the storm.

    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
      If they're concerned that the Russian bear might invade more of its neighbors, then households will cope. I don't get the "all or nothing, gas or no gas" analysis. We're talking a reduction in Europe's gas imports. Painful, but survivable. Kind of like water rationing is survivable during a drought. -- like we have here in California right now. Prices jump up, usage goes down. Russia supplies Europe with about 1/3 of its gas.
      It's not the Russian's who make that claim, it's the EU and USA. Survivable, yes. Painful, very much. We talk 30% of all gas or 8% of total energy needs. Sure it's doable, there were time when we had no gas or factories.

      Yup, like I said, it'd be painful. But not the "European implosion" some speak out
      It wont be the end the end of the world, but we are repeating here.

      For strategic security reasons. We wanted to keep the stuff within our borders. Hydrocarbon proven reserves kept declining, while usage kept increasing. That tendency has been turned on its head with proven, recoverable reserve skyrocketing.
      Now all we need is pipes? :whome:

      Forget liquefied natural gas on tankers. Are you telling me that the numerous proven, as yet undeveloped, close enough for pipelines, non-Russian, natural gas fields surrounding Europe are off limits to exploitation? Russia's energy "stranglehold" over Europe sounds sexy, and is a fun conspiracy to ponder, but a lot of it is mere bluster. Forbes recently came out with an article claiming that very thing.
      None of that will appear overnight. Moreover, within a decade. Meanwhile, the needs will remain the same? Many of the spots you mention will be off limits you know? Like those in Black Sea or near Cyprus or North Pole and that's from top of my head.

      Again Europeans would rather ignore Russia for now and build more renewable sources of energy then to just cut off the gas in order to punish Russia for something they did in the past. On top of it over bunch of fellas from which half are declared Neo-Nazis.
      No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

      To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
        Now all we need is pipes? :whome:
        Once again no. LNG tankers.

        Originally posted by Doktor View Post
        Many of the spots you mention will be off limits you know? Like those in Black Sea or near Cyprus or North Pole and that's from top of my head.
        Some will, some won't, like lots of situations in life. Off the top of my head .... I'll see your Cyprus and North Pole and raise you Azerbaijan, North Sea, Greenland, Libya, Algeria, Israeli leviathan field.

        Originally posted by Doktor View Post
        Again Europeans would rather ignore Russia for now and build more renewable sources of energy then to just cut off the gas in order to punish Russia for something they did in the past. On top of it over bunch of fellas from which half are declared Neo-Nazis.



        The "Europe is weak, won't stand up to Russia, always put economic matters above all else" is hardly the standard recipe Merkel is following. She's playing hardball. Look at what she said today:
        - "Chancellor Angela Merkel won industry support as she stepped up her threat of sanctions against Russia, saying that Germany could withstand the economic impact of any measures taken. "

        - "Merkel, speaking in Munich today, compared the 76 billion euros ($106 billion) in bilateral trade with Russia with the more than 60 billion euros in trade Germany has with its neighbor, the Czech Republic, a nation of 10 million people. Russia has a population of about 142 million. That shows that there is a dimension there, but not to such an extent that it would have an impact on Germany’s entire economic engagement,” Merkel said. Ulrich Grillo, president of Germany’s BDI industry federation, told the same event that he “fully” supports the chancellor during the crisis in Ukraine."

        Merkel Says Russian Trade Impact Limited as Industry Backs Curbs - Businessweek
        So she's got German industry backing her. She's dismissing the impact on Germany of any sanctions against Russia.




        This Business week, Bloomberg article says Russia tries to fight sanctions with sanctions, it will lose big time.
        What’s more, if the West ratchets up the sanctions now being considered, Russia would face severe economic shocks should it retaliate. “If Russia begins to answer sanctions with sanctions, it will be a pure loss for the country,” says Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank in Moscow. “More than 40 percent of consumption is imported goods.” Economists predict that an all-out trade war with the West could erase one-third of the value of the ruble, which has already slid almost 10 percent against the dollar this year.

        Russia Is Taking the Sanctions Threat Seriously
        Last edited by Goatboy; 14 Mar 14,, 22:22.

        Comment




        • Hmm...
          Attached Files
          No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

          To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
            Once again no. LNG tankers.
            and terminals... that take years and billions
            Let me sum this up for you 5 BCM of gas per year needs 2 terminals and a few tankers.
            lets say ~10 billion dollars with a hurdle return rate of ~20%. Think about the hurdle return for a bit.

            All Russia has to do is repudiate some corporate debt to show it is serious. For example
            if they stop payments on Rosneft's debt that is denominated in dollars or euros and hint that this will happen across the board with no ability to sieze assets that are non-Russia based. You have the potential to essentially destroy 700-1000billion dollars of foreign capital. Which would mean two things,
            one European banking system has an instant collapse, and there becomes a deep deflationary implosion.
            Second complete chaos in trade-flow/settlement. It would be tantamount to an economic nuke going off.
            Originally from Sochi, Russia.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by cyppok View Post
              Second complete chaos in trade-flow/settlement. It would be tantamount to an economic nuke going off.
              Ad Russia's economy would never recover and Russia would never be allowed bank into the international banking system. Within 20 years it would be a return to the 1980s with a impoverished technologically obsolete Russia choking on its own stupidity.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                and terminals... that take years and billions
                Let me sum this up for you 5 BCM of gas per year needs 2 terminals and a few tankers.
                lets say ~10 billion dollars with a hurdle return rate of ~20%. Think about the hurdle return for a bit.
                Frankly, I don't care about tankers, even though they're used to transport gas all over the planet. I already pointed out that vast amounts of pipeline'able gas lies within Europe, but even more in its near periphery.

                Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                All Russia has to do is repudiate some corporate debt to show it is serious. For example
                if they stop payments on Rosneft's debt that is denominated in dollars or euros and hint that this will happen across the board with no ability to sieze assets that are non-Russia based. You have the potential to essentially destroy 700-1000billion dollars of foreign capital. Which would mean two things,
                one European banking system has an instant collapse, and there becomes a deep deflationary implosion.
                Second complete chaos in trade-flow/settlement. It would be tantamount to an economic nuke going off.

                Do you know how much data, how many factors you aren't incorporating into your financial wargame scenario? And Russia getting booted from International Finance, IMF, global banks (etc ad nauseum) as a result of implimenting thiswon't just be painful for Russia it'll be the one suffering more than anyone else. That's what happens when you fight giants -- and the rest of the financial world is the giant, Russia's the pygmy.

                I'm not a finance expert, but I'd rather stand on the shoulders of the experts (Forbes, Business Week, whatever) and parrot what they say than consider the veracity that Russia possess a financial doomsday device and is willing to use it. I'd need peer reviewed from respected entities in the financial world's publications...

                Comment


                • Gazprom shares down 25% in 3 weeks, Russian stock markets down 22% since Feb, RUB down 11% this year, Russian 10yr bonds up 200bps this year and nobody has imposed any sanctions yet.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by snapper View Post
                    Gazprom shares down 25% in 3 weeks, Russian stock markets down 22% since Feb, RUB down 11% this year, Russian 10yr bonds up 200bps this year and nobody has imposed any sanctions yet.
                    Capitol flight last month was 17 billion USD and could top 200 billion by years end. This would be nearly all the non-government held forex in Russia.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by snapper View Post
                      Gazprom shares down 25% in 3 weeks, Russian stock markets down 22% since Feb, RUB down 11% this year, Russian 10yr bonds up 200bps this year and nobody has imposed any sanctions yet.
                      Yes snapper and yet, that equity is still owned by mostly foreign funds and those bonds are still held by mostly foreign banks. They could continue shorting it into the future against the dollar volume of commodity settlement coming out of Russia. But if that shifts you cannot hedge. Shorting the ruble is fine until the point you need it for settlement, if someone restricts your access you technically go insolvent on your margin position.:matrix: {I am beginning to talk about things I do not fully understand, helps think about concepts}

                      Z
                      It would be very damaging to everyone. But those leveraged the most, most of all. Europe etc...
                      Not saying they do it, UNLESS their funds are frozen which would mean that it is perfectly OK from a reciprocity perspective.
                      You freeze my funds I stop paying on your bonds.
                      ---

                      Sometimes I wonder if this whole Ukraine thing is just a huge distraction from something underneath the facade.
                      They already voiced privatization of the pipeline and other stuff but it seems so rushed and also irrelevant.

                      p.s. http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/...ssia-will.html
                      Last edited by cyppok; 15 Mar 14,, 10:21.
                      Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by snapper View Post
                        Gazprom shares down 25% in 3 weeks, Russian stock markets down 22% since Feb, RUB down 11% this year, Russian 10yr bonds up 200bps this year and nobody has imposed any sanctions yet.
                        BP who have interests have dropped 31p from 508 now at 477.25 .

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                          Yes snapper and yet, that equity is still owned by mostly foreign funds and those bonds are still held by mostly foreign banks. They could continue shorting it into the future against the dollar volume of commodity settlement coming out of Russia. But if that shifts you cannot hedge. Shorting the ruble is fine until the point you need it for settlement, if someone restricts your access you technically go insolvent on your margin position.:matrix: {I am beginning to talk about things I do not fully understand, helps think about concepts}
                          My broker has made some small profits on my behalf I admit but I have been far too busy with other matters to pay much attention to the market reaction on a daily basis.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Versus View Post
                            No, it wasn't anything like Kosovo was.
                            You're damn right, Versus.

                            To make Kosovo independent, NATO bombed Yugoslavia for three months and were killed - according to different estimations - from 1 thousand up to 5 thousand people.

                            Before Kosovo declared independence, NATO had to execute military operation against Yugoslavia.
                            The forces involved in the operation (according to Wiki): more than 1000 aircrafts, 59 airbases, at least 20,5 thousand ground troops.

                            Losses of Yugoslavian economy - about 1 billion dollars. Were destroyed 89 plants, 128 infrustructure objects, 120 power plants, 14 airports, 48 hospitals, 118 radio and TV repeaters, 82 bridges, 61 road junctions, 25 post offices etc.

                            After separation Kosovo from Yugoslavia more than 200000 serbs were made to leave Kosovo as refugees.

                            Now let's look at Crimea.

                            To declare independence the people who called themselves as "Crimean self-defence" performed an operation at February, 27.
                            Forces involved: approximately 20 people of spetznaz squad and one PAZ bus, which highly likely is a property of a local police department.





                            And also local police took part and encircled the Crimean Supreme Council from outside.

                            Casualties: zero.
                            Refugees: zero.
                            Destructions: zero.

                            Reportedly, after gaining actual independence of Crimea many Ukrainians pay bribes to Crimean officials to try to recieve Crimean registration, as they count for higher Russian social compensations in the near future.

                            It's definitely wasn't anything like Kosovo was.


                            Yeterday Crimean self-defense forces managed to intercept the US made drone. Reportedly, it was landed almost intact. The model also named - MQ-5B. Interception was performed by the operational mobile jamming system Avtobaza, which somehow have appeared in possession of Crimean self-defense forces. According to onboard marks the dron belongs to US 66th Military Intelligence Brigade.

                            СМИ: американский беспилотник MQ-5B сбит над Крымом
                            Attached Files

                            Comment


                            • For the love of God, please stop comparing Kosovo and Crimea. They are not the same.

                              Comment


                              • Impact Of Sanctions Against Russia - Business Insider

                                For those quoting BI where they say sanctions will work just fine.

                                The analysts point to Russia's diversified trade partners. From Morgan Stanley:

                                "Russian trade and investment are spread across multiple jurisdictions, which points to a lack of dependence on any one country. Moreover, commodities – for which it is generally easy to find an alternative buyer – dominate exports: energy exports alone account for 66% of the total. Moreover, most Russian investment abroad ($406bn USD, end 2012) and foreign investment in Russia ($496bn USD, end 2012) is structured through offshore financial centers, which may make imposition of sanctions more challenging, although we suspect that most of the assets owned by Russian foreign investors, and most of the ultimate beneficiaries of foreign investment in Russia, are in OECD countries."

                                That being said, sanctions won't be ineffective.
                                Oh and this, too: http://www.businessinsider.com/russi...d-cheap-2014-3
                                No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                                To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X