Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Bloody outcome in Kiev, Feb.19, 2014

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
    Good luck doing all that in 1-2 years time frame. Moreover, the greens will turn red if you mention coal, nukes and fracking together as a way out. Bunch of money? Who's gonna give them?
    Nah, more like 5 years. But within a single year it'll become obvious what Europe's future might hold should the EU and the US begin construction of appropriate condenser natural gas facilities. Russia will get the message as soon as these projects begin construction, which could happen if Russia were to become even more bellicose, say attacking and annexing Eastern Ukraine.

    Originally posted by Doktor View Post
    Bunch of money? Who's gonna give them?
    The EU has plenty of money if there's a will. It's a common mistake to assume because Europe's economy hasn't performed well lately that it's headed to 3rd world status, or even becoming poorer. It'll hurt sure, and fewer CERN particle accelerator level projects will happen, and budgets tightened, economies tipped into recession temporarily perhaps (or not), but it's doable.


    Originally posted by Doktor View Post
    Russia econ might sink, might even reset, but it will drag a lot of nations along with them. EU will survive even with 20% energy shortage, but what happens with other nations?
    What will happen to other nations? I don't know, probably nothing good for some, something more painful than completely removing all Iranian oil exports from international trade, but not as painful as an OPEC embargo is my best guess.

    Comment


    • Crimeans begin to consider the real benefits and costs of joining Russia

      Crimeans begin to consider the real benefits and costs of joining Russia - The Washington Post

      By Pamela Constable and Carol Morello, Published: March 13 E-mail the writers

      SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine – People clustered around official-looking posters in the Crimean capital Thursday, pointing excitedly and taking notes. The signs compared public salaries, pensions, health benefits and fuel costs in Ukraine and Russia.

      In each case, life in Russia looked better.

      Video
      <caption> All sides perform military drills ahead of Sunday’s referendum to join Russia. </caption>


      Posters suggest changes for the better after Sunday’s referendum, but the devil is in the details.

      In the midst of the political crisis over Crimea, a gas tycoon is arrested in Austria on a U.S. warrant.

      “My pension is miserable, but soon I’ll be getting almost twice as much,” said Yuri Khotchiv, 79, a retired engineer who receives about $210 a month from Ukraine’s government. He said he plans to vote to join Russia in Sunday’s referendum — partly out of patriotic sentiment and partly because of promises such as those on the posters.

      As the vote approaches, Moscow and pro-Russian leaders in Crimea have dangled a variety of carrots in front of Crimean residents, depicting Russia as a stable, paternalistic state with more jobs, higher wages, lower taxes, better health insurance, easier university exams and far more generous payments to the critical demographic of military and civilian retirees.

      In the port city of Sevastopol, a newspaper Thursday featured an interview with city council head Dmitri Belik, who ticked off a number of benefits Ukrainians will receive if they become Russians. Soldiers and sailors will automatically get higher pensions, retirement ages will be lowered by five years, and government workers will keep their jobs with higher pay. There will be a three-month tax holiday and fully covered child care.

      “Think about your families,” Belik said. “Do you want to live in a prosperous country or be poor in a country governed by traitors and thugs?”

      Meanwhile, the bureaucratic complexities and less pleasant implications of switching nationality overnight have remained harder to pin down. Many government offices are barely functioning, and queries about concerns ranging from banking rules to compulsive military service — which Russia requires and Ukraine does not — have mostly met with uncertain or evasive shrugs.

      One area clouded in confusion is the difference between legal procedures and policies in the two countries. Sergey Zayetz, a lawyer in Sevastopol, said he knows little about Russian law and is unnerved by what lies ahead.

      “It’s like a gypsy reading tea leaves,” he said. “The only question I’ve been able to get an answer to is that we can still practice.”

      Zayetz said property sales have ground to a halt in Crimea because the government in Kiev has stopped registering sales. More troubling, he said, is that criminal suspects in Russia have fewer rights. They are often detained for long periods while awaiting arraignment, and confessions are often ruled admissible even if coerced.

      In Simferopol, business owners said they had little idea of the rules or costs for obtaining Russian licenses, how to deal with Ukrainian customers who would suddenly become foreign clients, or what would become of their bank accounts.

      “Workers want higher salaries so they may be happy to change, but owners have other worries,” said Ana Khrykava, who operates two companies in Crimea. “In Russia, a lot of the rules for doing business are not written, and they change all the time. People think there is more stability there, but in some ways it would be more unstable.”

      Exchange rates and bank account security are also subjects of public anxiety. In Simferopol, lines at ATMs, at currency shops and in bank lobbies have gotten longer every day this week. Some customers said they were trying to verify that their accounts were safe, some were trying to withdraw as much cash as possible and still others were buying dollars.

      “We no longer have confidence in the hryvnia, and we don’t yet know about the ruble,” said a man who had just purchased $300 in greenbacks, referring to the Ukrainian and Russian currencies. He said that he was trying to buy a used car and that the dealer insisted on being paid in dollars.

      In Sevastopol, the city government of Moscow runs a commercial and cultural center, whose director, Kirill Somov, said Russian and Crimean authorities have begun making tentative transition plans. For example, he said that Crimean students would be allowed to enroll in Russian universities for a year without taking entrance exams and that Ukrainian-focused history tests would be replaced with Russian history books. He predicted that retirees would be particularly happy, adding, “I expect pensioners in Crimea to vote 100 percent for Russia.”He also said Crimean business owners would soon get over their nervousness, noting that one beer distributor, worried that he would no longer be able to buy beer from Kiev, had been contacted by Russian breweries.

      But the Moscow representative acknowledged that other Crimean groups, such as draft-age young men, might not feel as enthusiastic. He said that ethnic Russians could obtain Russian passports easily and that other Crimeans would be allowed to keep their Ukrainian passports — although in that case they would not be allowed to vote.

      Somov said other changes could be arduous and protracted, including months-long utility cuts, especially if relations between Russia and Ukraine remain hostile. “A lot of things are unclear, let’s be honest,” he said. “But it will all be solved somehow.”

      Asked about the hardships they might encounter during a transition, several ethnic Russians in Simferopol said nothing would matter except being reunited with their homeland. “We are so euphoric that everything else seems minor,” said Victor Grigorovich, 75, a retired government worker.

      But Khrykava, 33, said Crimeans who imagine a perfect life under Russia are “dreaming of the old Soviet Union, where the state provides you with everything. We younger people think in a more independent way. We don’t want the state to give us everything. We want to take responsibility, to take risks, and to be free.”

      Morello reported from Sevastopol.
      To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

      Comment


      • Vladimir Putins popularity has just hit a 3-year hig

        We treat him like he’s mad, but Vladimir Putin’s popularity has just hit a 3-year high


        We treat him like hes mad, but Vladimir Putins popularity has just hit a 3-year high

        As the situation in Crimea grew increasingly tense over the past few weeks, many in Western Europe and the U.S. began to wonder what exactly Russian President Vladimir Putin was thinking. German Chancellor Angela Merkel reportedly said he was "in another world," while Julia Ioffe of the New Republic wrote that he had "lost it." As Anne Applebaum of The Post tweeted, "we may have reached the weird moment when the dictator believes his own propaganda."

        The image was of a man losing his bearings, stumbling blindly into a possible conflict. Perhaps, after 14 years of leading Russia, he had finally gone mad.

        Apparently in Russia, the perspective is rather different.

        In a poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) last week, Putin's popularity level in Russia has reached 71.6 percent. That's a 9.7 percent increase since mid-February, which seems quite obviously linked to the Russian president's handling of Ukraine and the Sochi Olympics. As Ria Novosti notes, it means that Putin's popularity levels are now at a three-year high.

        You might want to put that down to the fact that the VTsIOM is state-run, but that argument doesn't really hold. The Levada Center, a well-respected independent polling center, has also found that Putin had a 72 percent approval rating, up 7 points from January and a recent record. To put that in context on a world stage, U.S. president Barack Obama is currently at 43 percent, according to Gallup, while 79 percent of the French say they don't approve of Francois Hollande's presidency. Putin isn't just popular, he's extraordinarily popular.

        ...more at link
        To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
          Nah, more like 5 years. But within a single year it'll become obvious what Europe's future might hold should the EU and the US begin construction of appropriate condenser natural gas facilities. Russia will get the message as soon as these projects begin construction, which could happen if Russia were to become even more bellicose, say attacking and annexing Eastern Ukraine.
          Even if it is doable in 5 years span, for which I am not an optimist, please do tell me how is EU economy going to fare with 10-20% less energy? And that's after they retool their industril capacities to work on something else but gas (which will be very scarce and therefor expensive.

          The EU has plenty of money if there's a will. It's a common mistake to assume because Europe's economy hasn't performed well lately that it's headed to 3rd world status, or even becoming poorer. It'll hurt sure, and fewer CERN particle accelerator level projects will happen, and budgets tightened, economies tipped into recession temporarily perhaps (or not), but it's doable.
          Putting pipes under Atlantic is something that can be done in 5 years now? Why noone ever thought of it in the 70s, 80s, 90s..?

          What will happen to other nations? I don't know, probably nothing good for some, something more painful than completely removing all Iranian oil exports from international trade, but not as painful as an OPEC embargo is my best guess.
          This line of thinking is why we still see no hard actions from Euros towards Russia. And it's only one thing in the mix. The other is European exports to Russia won't magically find new customers, even more at same or higher prices. Next in line is the capital from both sides, hence why the Brits are reluctant.
          No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

          To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
            Nah, more like 5 years. But within a single year it'll become obvious what Europe's future might hold should the EU and the US begin construction of appropriate condenser natural gas facilities. Russia will get the message as soon as these projects begin construction, which could happen if Russia were to become even more bellicose, say attacking and annexing Eastern Ukraine.



            The EU has plenty of money if there's a will. It's a common mistake to assume because Europe's economy hasn't performed well lately that it's headed to 3rd world status, or even becoming poorer. It'll hurt sure, and fewer CERN particle accelerator level projects will happen, and budgets tightened, economies tipped into recession temporarily perhaps (or not), but it's doable.




            What will happen to other nations? I don't know, probably nothing good for some, something more painful than completely removing all Iranian oil exports from international trade, but not as painful as an OPEC embargo is my best guess.
            You truly, really , believe that the fracking can match Russian natural gas and oil exports?

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
              Even if it is doable in 5 years span, for which I am not an optimist, please do tell me how is EU economy going to fare with 10-20% less energy? And that's after they retool their industril capacities to work on something else but gas (which will be very scarce and therefor expensive.
              Spot market for some. 20% of natural gas is sold on the spot market globally, and it's increasing. Greater upward price pressure for non-Russian natural gas sources will occur no doubt. It'll hurt yes, but it's possible. Anyway, a simple reduction in Russian gas might be forceful enough pressure on Russia for it to re-think behavior. And a 20% reduction isn't fatal you know, just painful.


              Originally posted by Doktor View Post
              Putting pipes under Atlantic is something that can be done in 5 years now?
              Pipes? No. Liquefied natural gas via tanker yes. I didn't mention it because I thought it was self evident. It's done the globe over. There is a cost markup of course.
              LNG carrier - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

              Originally posted by Doktor View Post
              Why noone ever thought of it in the 70s, 80s, 90s..?
              Weren't you aware of a ban on natural gas exports in the United States since the 1970s?

              Originally posted by Doktor View Post
              This line of thinking is why we still see no hard actions from Euros towards Russia. And it's only one thing in the mix. The other is European exports to Russia won't magically find new customers, even more at same or higher prices. Next in line is the capital from both sides, hence why the Brits are reluctant.
              We'll see. Merkel the last few days went from reluctant backseat in taking a hard line on Russia (historically she has), to leading the hardline talk/pressure/threats.
              €˜Massive damage€™ will result if Russia persists in Ukraine, Merkel warns Putin - The Globe and Mail
              Last edited by Goatboy; 14 Mar 14,, 08:57.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Versus View Post
                You truly, really , believe that the fracking can match Russian natural gas and oil exports?

                Right now none of Europe's natural gas comes via fracking (shale gas). Norway and the Netherlands (which supply over half of Europe's natural gas currently) don't use fracking yet.

                Europe has significant shale deposits in multiple countries. Therefore, if developed over some years, it can't but reduce dependence on Russian imports.
                http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...le_Gas_Map.png


                But of course there's massive gas fields in Libya, Cyprus, Greece (newly discovered), more North Sea discoveries, not to mention LNG via tanker from Qatar, or Kuwait or.... etc etc. They keep finding new sources of the stuff...
                Last edited by Goatboy; 14 Mar 14,, 08:53.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
                  Spot market for some. 20% of natural gas is sold on the spot market globally, and it's increasing. Greater upward price pressure for non-Russian natural gas sources will occur no doubt. It'll hurt yes, but it's possible. Anyway, a simple reduction in Russian gas might be forceful enough pressure on Russia for it to re-think behavior. And a 20% reduction isn't fatal you know, just painful.
                  Next time the factory stop producing something or households don't get enough gas due to rations, tell them it's not a big deal and it's a necessity to punish the Russians.

                  Pipes? No. Liquefied natural gas via tanker yes. I didn't mention it because I thought it was self evident. It's done the globe over. There is a cost markup of course.
                  LNG carrier - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
                  So that's on top of already more expensive gas?

                  Weren't you aware of a ban on natural gas exports in the United States since the 1970s?
                  Yes, thank youy. It was put for a reason. Why it's not lifted?

                  A lot of infrastructure was built at the time and there was excess of money, unlike now.

                  We'll see. Merkel the last few days went from reluctant backseat in taking a hard line on Russia (historically she has), to leading the hardline talk/pressure/threats.
                  €˜Massive damage€™ will result if Russia persists in Ukraine, Merkel warns Putin - The Globe and Mail
                  Indeed we will see.
                  No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                  To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
                    Right now none of Europe's natural gas comes via fracking (shale gas). Norway and the Netherlands (which supply over half of Europe's natural gas currently) don't use fracking yet.

                    Europe has significant shale deposits in multiple countries. Therefore, if developed over some years, it can't but reduce dependence on Russian imports.
                    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...le_Gas_Map.png


                    But of course there's massive gas fields in Libya, Cyprus, Greece (newly discovered), more North Sea discoveries, not to mention LNG via tanker from Qatar, or Kuwait or.... etc etc. They keep finding new sources of the stuff...

                    And the Black Sea,which is full of gas.So full this could be one of the reasons why south Ukraine in general and Crimea in particular is important for them.Add the posibility for them to influence the transit of LNG through AGRI.
                    To heck with fracking.It's not worth the costs.The tech might be usable in US,Canada and other sparsely populated areas.

                    Thing is we'd be wise not to completely cut the Russians of the loop.They have leverage on Europe,but Europe also has some leverage on them.If they re-orient to the Chinese or Koreans,we lose this advantage.
                    Those who know don't speak
                    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

                    Comment


                    • Amen brother.

                      Royal Dutch Shell got license to start deep sea explorations ;)
                      No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                      To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                      Comment


                      • I guess this is extracted from this poll:
                        Results of our study

                        Another interesting poll from the same source, which BTW is close to Kremlin:
                        Results of our study

                        In your opinion, how Russia should respond to the attempts to seize power in Ukraine? (close-ended question, one answer)

                        Total respondents
                        Not to interfere; this is an internal affair of Ukraine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73%
                        Russia should help the existing power and to suppress any illegal attempts to seize power. . . . 15%
                        Russia should help the oppositionists to come to power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
                        Don`t know. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
                        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                        Comment


                        • Two very odd things.

                          Odessa is very quiet and organization is going up. Possibly the most organized oblast vis a vis political/organizational outlets.

                          Poltava mayor has been indited for beating 'activits' (which actually attacked him youtube below). They tried to beat him and force him sign three odd things as it relates to monuments, Ivan Mazepa, get rid of Lenin, and him leaving I think.
                          Ÿол‚ав‡ане бŒŽ‚ Александ€а œамая - YouTube
                          Vladimir Vovk the "Right Sector" activist is the one who petitioned the cops for indictment.

                          ---
                          Donetsk is slowly rising
                          Kharkov went into shadows they also have something on the 16th but it will be interesting to see after Crimea referendum
                          Lukhansk 'peoples' governor arrested.
                          ---
                          Hryvna resumed falling it strengthened to 9 but probably over 10 now.
                          ---

                          The country is splitting you could argue that there will be a wave of blowback going westwards after SE rises.
                          Akhmetov is in an interesting position from and oligarch perspective he is semi-neutral which is not a good position.
                          If I had to guess I think Vadim Novinsky is in the most interesting position.

                          P.S.
                          http://hubs.com.ua/news/na-vezde-v-d...vtomatami.html
                          like i said before Donetsk armed after Gubarev was "arrested" and taken to Kiev
                          Last edited by cyppok; 14 Mar 14,, 13:46.
                          Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                          Comment


                          • Natural gas is a continental commodity.

                            In today's environment you cannot lift enough LNG to make it an efficient global commodity like oil.

                            And pipelines under the Atlantic?

                            Only on the SCIFI Channel.
                            Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.
                            Mark Twain

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                              Natural gas is a continental commodity.

                              In today's environment you cannot lift enough LNG to make it an efficient global commodity like oil.
                              Dang, AR, it was fun till you killed it.

                              And pipelines under the Atlantic?

                              Only on the SCIFI Channel.
                              Now you are being a pessimist. If they laid cables 100+ years ago sure they can lay pipes, right? Right?! :whome:
                              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                                Next time the factory stop producing something or households don't get enough gas due to rations, tell them it's not a big deal and it's a necessity to punish the Russians.
                                If they're concerned that the Russian bear might invade more of its neighbors, then households will cope. I don't get the "all or nothing, gas or no gas" analysis. We're talking a reduction in Europe's gas imports. Painful, but survivable. Kind of like water rationing is survivable during a drought. -- like we have here in California right now. Prices jump up, usage goes down. Russia supplies Europe with about 1/3 of its gas.

                                Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                                So that's on top of already more expensive gas?
                                Yup, like I said, it'd be painful. But not the "European implosion" some speak out

                                Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                                Yes, thank youy. It was put for a reason. Why it's not lifted?

                                For strategic security reasons. We wanted to keep the stuff within our borders. Hydrocarbon proven reserves kept declining, while usage kept increasing. That tendency has been turned on its head with proven, recoverable reserve skyrocketing.



                                Forget liquefied natural gas on tankers. Are you telling me that the numerous proven, as yet undeveloped, close enough for pipelines, non-Russian, natural gas fields surrounding Europe are off limits to exploitation? Russia's energy "stranglehold" over Europe sounds sexy, and is a fun conspiracy to ponder, but a lot of it is mere bluster. Forbes recently came out with an article claiming that very thing.
                                Last edited by Goatboy; 14 Mar 14,, 17:42.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X