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The future of 'Global' Terrorism?

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  • The future of 'Global' Terrorism?

    Reports and articles lately seem to talk about the diminishing strength of al Qaeda.

    Bin Laden's own notes talk about the many different groups conducting actions in the name of al Qaeda that are bringing down the name and basically self destructive to the group.

    There seems to be an increase in "lone wolf" attacks.

    Even the birth of the occupy movement.

    What is the future of global terrorism?

  • #2
    Originally posted by Native View Post
    Reports and articles lately seem to talk about the diminishing strength of al Qaeda.

    Bin Laden's own notes talk about the many different groups conducting actions in the name of al Qaeda that are bringing down the name and basically self destructive to the group.
    They've lost their momentum and suffered a number of setbacks, some by design and others by accident.

    Originally posted by Native View Post
    There seems to be an increase in "lone wolf" attacks.
    Take out this GWOT and is there really an increase or is it similar to before GWOT, similar average.

    A lone wolf attack no different to some guy losing his marbles and going postal.

    Originally posted by Native View Post
    What is the future of global terrorism?
    Not very promising thanks to your govt & the arab spring :)
    Last edited by Double Edge; 02 May 12,, 19:43.

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    • #3
      Do you truly think the Arab Spring has done anything to stem the tide of youth headed towards the part of radicalism and terrorism? If I'm not mistaken, a significant amount of home grown terrorists come from countries the Arab Spring hasn't touched, like Pakistan.
      Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

      Abusing Yellow is meant to be a labor of love, not something you sell to the highest bidder.

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      • #4
        DE.The Arab Spring and the AQ have the same end goal,if we let go the veneer of rhetoric.
        Btw,does anyone remembers AQ flag atop Benghazi?
        Those who know don't speak
        He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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        • #5
          mihais,

          DE.The Arab Spring and the AQ have the same end goal,if
          that's not true.

          the Arab Spring is a very nationalist movement. in the ME context, yes, these days their nationalism is also tinged with islamism (although if you notice the example of egypt, even the salafists are willing to cut deals with moderates or secularists).

          AQ's goal has always been a global Caliphate. knocking down the national leaders is a similarity but that's just a means of getting to the ultimate stage, the establishment of a pan-national and later pan-global Caliphate.
          There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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          • #6
            We'll see.The full consequences of the Arab Spring are yet to be seen.Last time there was such a fervor was ~50 years ago,with the rise of the Baa'th movement and that led to United Arab Republic(albeit short lived).This time the dynamic is a bit different,due to the islamist fervor.The variables are many.
            Last edited by Mihais; 02 May 12,, 22:26.
            Those who know don't speak
            He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by bigross86 View Post
              Do you truly think the Arab Spring has done anything to stem the tide of youth headed towards the part of radicalism and terrorism?
              Its a dampener. Those people out in the squares weren't railing against the west (for a change). They weren't doing Al-Q's bidding. The direction was different this time.

              Anything that detracts from hating/blaming the west is a detriment to terrorism.

              Originally posted by bigross86 View Post
              If I'm not mistaken, a significant amount of home grown terrorists come from countries the Arab Spring hasn't touched, like Pakistan.
              How many Asians took part in 9-11 ? none, all arab, planning, execution the lot.

              Pakistan is a bit more advanced than the arab countries in terms of democracy. They won't have a spring. Pakistan's situation also has extra elements within that aren't present in the arab countries. So i would say the Arabs & pakistan cannot be commingled together.

              Now as an Israeli you are in a unique situation. Just because the direction isn't against the west does not mean it isn't against Israel. From your perspective the difference is slight. But for others its significant.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by astralis View Post
                mihais,



                that's not true.

                the Arab Spring is a very nationalist movement. in the ME context, yes, these days their nationalism is also tinged with islamism (although if you notice the example of egypt, even the salafists are willing to cut deals with moderates or secularists).

                AQ's goal has always been a global Caliphate. knocking down the national leaders is a similarity but that's just a means of getting to the ultimate stage, the establishment of a pan-national and later pan-global Caliphate.
                Timbuktu.
                In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                Leibniz

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                  We'll see.The full consequences of the Arab Spring are yet to be seen.Last time there was such a fervor was ~50 years ago,with the rise of the Baa'th movement and that led to United Arab Republic(albeit sorth lived).This time the dynamic is a bit different,due to the islamist fervor.The variables are many.
                  What you're really getting at is what happens when Egypt decides to assert itself as leader of the Arabs. Egypt's position has taken a hit since the Nasser days. It's natural that Egyptians would try to regain that respect.

                  But thats at least a decade down the road if not more. Egypt will have to grow their economy to Turkey's size which is four times bigger for equal people. If Egypt is successful there may be testing times ahead but it won't be an isolated event. The balance of power will rebalance itself. Egypt's neighbours won't be standing still. And that just puts if off even longer.

                  Arab spring throws up challenges for everybody, west as well as Al-Q not to mention the people getting by in the countries concerned. Its a game changer.
                  Last edited by Double Edge; 02 May 12,, 22:16.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Agree with Mihais here; "The full consequences of the Arab Spring are yet to be seen." I am pleasently surprised with Libya where they have banned religious Parties (unlike Egypt) and recently got caught sending a shipfull of guns to the Syrian rebels (it got intercepted by the Lebanese).

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by snapper View Post
                      I am pleasently surprised with Libya where they have banned religious Parties (unlike Egypt)
                      Libya drops ban on religion-based parties | Reuters | May 2, 2012

                      Which is good because religious parties need to lose their illicit appeal. Lets see them in the open, solving day to day problems.

                      Originally posted by snapper View Post
                      and recently got caught sending a shipfull of guns to the Syrian rebels (it got intercepted by the Lebanese).
                      Yep
                      Last edited by Double Edge; 03 May 12,, 00:54.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                        They've lost their momentum and suffered a number of setbacks, some by design and others by accident.
                        As long as you have freedom of information and speech, AQ will exist.

                        Not very promising thanks to your govt & the arab spring :)
                        I don't know, once ISAF withdrawal is complete, Taliban/PakTaliban regains control of Afghanistan, haven for all sorts of fundies is founded.

                        As for the Arab spring, its just the resurgence of the old form of "legitimate" qutbism. When Qutb and co. failed to mobilize the masses against the West, that strand of though lead to the birth of AQ. However, considering the momentum Salafists and Wahabbis are gaining WITHIN the democratic framework in Arab nations, the notion of even resorting to terrorism seems foregone given the fact that the masses themselves are gladly handing power to the Salafists/Wahabbis.


                        As for astralis, AQ may have had the global caliphate in mind, but I think the more immediate objective was the re-mobilization and recreation of an Arab-Islamist pan-nationalist movement. Which Qutb tried to do by using the West as a focal point for collective hatred, and failed, prompting the switch to terrorism to provoke the West and mobilize the population. Which is something I think the Salafists/Wahhabis share. They for one aren't bound by nationalist sentiment but rather by shared religious/philosophical/racialist beliefs that pay no adherence to the significance of nation-state.

                        Arab EU?
                        "Who says organization, says oligarchy"

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          Libya drops ban on religion-based parties | Reuters | May 2, 2012

                          Which is good because religious parties need to lose their illicit appeal. Lets see them in the open, solving day to day problems.
                          Like in Iran.
                          To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Wayfarer View Post
                            As long as you have freedom of information and speech, AQ will exist.
                            Al-Q will exist, but will they matter ?

                            Originally posted by Wayfarer View Post
                            I don't know, once ISAF withdrawal is complete, Taliban/PakTaliban regains control of Afghanistan, haven for all sorts of fundies is founded.
                            US status in Afghanistan post 2014..

                            Fact Sheet: The U.S.-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement | White House | May 1 2012

                            When it comes to an enduring U.S. presence, President Obama has been clear: we do not seek permanent military bases in Afghanistan. Instead, the Strategic Partnership Agreement commits Afghanistan to provide U.S. personnel access to and use of Afghan facilities through 2014 and beyond. The Agreement provides for the possibility of U.S. forces in Afghanistan after 2014, for the purposes of training Afghan Forces and targeting the remnants of al-Qaeda, and commits the United States and Afghanistan to initiate negotiations on a Bilateral Security Agreement to supersede our current Status of Forces Agreement. The United States will also designate Afghanistan a “Major Non-NATO Ally” to provide a long-term framework for security and defense cooperation.
                            Further, there is still a SOFA to be agreed upon later so how likely is it for the Taliban to regain control over Afghanistan ?

                            More here...

                            Obama has an Afghan game plan | Asia Times | May 3 2012

                            It is increasingly apparent that the US will maintain a sizeable military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014, including combat troops and contingents of the US special operations forces.

                            Such a military presence requires back-up by American medical evacuation personnel and helicopters, and also some US war planes, especially aerial gun ships and air-to-ground assault planes. These combat troops cannot operate in a vacuum and, therefore, a fleet of intelligence-gathering and surveillance aircraft and their crews will also have to remain. In sum, a substantial US military presence will continue. The spin is that the US is determined not to "abandon" Afghanistan, as it did in 1989 after the Soviet withdrawal.

                            However, the sequencing of the negotiations with Kabul and Islamabad (and the Taliban) becomes important. The US would want the "status of forces agreement" to be negotiated exclusively with Karzai, sequestering it from the peace process with the Taliban or the normalization of the US-Pakistan ties.

                            So, what we may expect is that on a parallel track the US will make haste slowly on the peace talks with the Taliban even as the "status of forces agreement" is worked out.
                            Originally posted by Wayfarer View Post
                            As for the Arab spring, its just the resurgence of the old form of "legitimate" qutbism. When Qutb and co. failed to mobilize the masses against the West, that strand of though lead to the birth of AQ.
                            No, its the evolution from Bana'a who was dead in '49,

                            Qutb is what OBL followed. He's gone and that way of thinking is out, at least for this decade.

                            Originally posted by Wayfarer View Post
                            However, considering the momentum Salafists and Wahabbis are gaining WITHIN the democratic framework in Arab nations,
                            True Salafis should not be getting into politics in the first place.

                            Originally posted by Wayfarer View Post
                            the notion of even resorting to terrorism seems foregone given the fact that the masses themselves are gladly handing power to the Salafists/Wahabbis.
                            That would make them state sponsors of terrorism. I'd imagine they would be some price to pay for that. In Tunisia the poltical parties espousing violence have been excluded. I can see a similar pattern developing in other arab countries. The violent parties will be excluded and remain on the fringes like the LeT in Pakistan. The question then becomes why would major political parties of these arab countries support LeT like outfits ? That's not the case even in Pakistan where its the army & their intel agency that's responsible for such support.

                            Hamas might resort to it but thier situation is different in comparison to the other countries. So its not at all clear and by no means a foregone conclusion that the other countries will follow this path.

                            Pals is different from other Arabs which in turn are different from Pakistan.

                            Originally posted by Wayfarer View Post
                            As for astralis, AQ may have had the global caliphate in mind, but I think the more immediate objective was the re-mobilization and recreation of an Arab-Islamist pan-nationalist movement.
                            Nasser already tried this in the 50's. Not a caliphate but a fraternity of arab nations. Before pan-arab anything begins they need to sort out their own countries issues first.

                            Originally posted by Wayfarer View Post
                            Which Qutb tried to do by using the West as a focal point for collective hatred, and failed, prompting the switch to terrorism to provoke the West and mobilize the population. Which is something I think the Salafists/Wahhabis share. They for one aren't bound by nationalist sentiment but rather by shared religious/philosophical/racialist beliefs that pay no adherence to the significance of nation-state.
                            You just jumped forty years in one fell swoop there :)

                            Originally posted by Wayfarer View Post
                            Arab EU?
                            Not for a another decade or two at least. A terrible idea before then.

                            The GCC were suppoed to start planing for a common currency in 2010, that plan seems to be going nowhere. Kuwait wanted to peg its currency to a basket of currencies unlike the others that wanted to just peg to the dollar.

                            GCC are content with a defensive configuration for now.
                            Last edited by Double Edge; 03 May 12,, 16:29.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by JAD_333 View Post
                              Like in Iran.
                              Can you be more specific ?

                              Iran & the other gulf countries are oil rich, they can provide their citizens with lavish subsidies unlike other muslim countries. I'm not seeing how Egypt or Tunisia can follow Iran from that pov. Having oil means you get away with a lot more than not. Libya is different here but the west helped Libya so thats going to influence matters in that country. Without western intervention, Gaddafi would be still around today and Libyans including any hardline islamists know it.

                              Turkey's AKP party is a closer example to follow for Egypt or Tunisia if they want to grow their economies.

                              Lumping Iran + Pals + Pakistan + Arabs into the same basket because they are muslim and using that as the basis to predict the future isn't very useful. Its just pandering to Islamist aspirations. And aspirations is the key word here as opposed to ability.
                              Last edited by Double Edge; 03 May 12,, 15:10.

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