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  • kato
    replied
    Final results, doesn't look all that great for Steinmeier even if he got elected:

    Steinmeier - 931 (81.9%) - probably CDU/CSU/SPD/FDP delegates minus 28
    Butterwegge - 128 (11.3%) - probably Left delegates plus extra 33
    Glaser - 42 (3.7%) - probably AfD delegates plus extra 7
    Hold - 25 (2.2%) - probably FW/BVB-FW delegates plus extra 13
    Sonneborn - 10 (0.9%) - probably Pirate delegates minus 1

    no-choice votes - 103 (!) - probably Greens/SSW minus 47
    invalid votes - 14
    votes not cast - 7
    Last edited by kato; 12 Feb 17,, 14:42.

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  • kato
    replied
    Vote is underway, results should be out in the next 30 minutes.

    Steinmeier likely won't get the full 1106 votes, but somewhere between 920 and 1100 - i.e. only a 80% majority; i'd personally expect around 1050. The Kurnaz/Guantanamo affair in particular isn't forgotten and will take votes from him not just among the Greens, but also in other parties of his coalition - there are even a couple CDU delegates citing Kurnaz for their decision not to vote for Steinmeier.

    The Federal Assembly was opened at 12:20 by parliamentary president Norbert Lammert (CDU) who gave a speech warning Trump against isolation and protectionism ("whoever calls for that shouldn't be surprised if others do it alike") and explicitly calling for a "strong Europe". He got standing ovations for that speech from pretty much everyone except the 35 present AfD delegates.

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  • kato
    replied
    Steinmeier is currently supported by CDU, CSU, SPD, Greens and FDP - hence likely to garner around 1106 out of 1260 votes.

    Left has chosen Christoph Butterwegge for candidate, Pirates and PARTEI have chosen a joint candidate in PARTEI's party head's father Engelbert Sonneborn. With Alexander Hold (supported by FW and BVB-FW) and Albrecht Glaser (AfD) that makes for five candidates. Butterwegge will probably get around 95 votes, Glaser around 35 and Hold and Sonneborn each up to 11.
    Pirates and PARTEI were supposedly considering nominating Murat Kurnaz - a Turkish-German who was held in Guantanamo for four years - for a short while out of protest against Steinmeier; Kurnaz is too young for the office though (minimum age 40). Kurnaz and Steinmeier have carried out some personal animosity in public for the past ten years since Kurnaz' release.

    Only party that hasn't chosen a candidate is the Danish minority party SSW, which holds a single seat.

    The electoral council deputies of Northrhine-Westfalia (135 delegates) were legally disputed. A ex-Pirate independent in the state parliament filed for a possible violation of the constitution since the list of delegates was voted on openly instead of secretly, thus enforcing party discipline. Pretty minor squabble though.

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  • kato
    replied
    Election for Gauck's successor will take place on February 12th as written above.

    It's already decided though: the government will officially name Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the current foreign minister, as their joint candidate tomorrow - they agreed on him yesterday. The current government coalition will hold between 928 and 931 out of 1260 seats in the Federal Assembly electing the president, hence guaranteeing that Steinmeier wins.

    Steinmeier is a compromise candidate, mostly because all big-name CDU potentials refused the candidacy - in particular Norbert Lammert refused a candidacy for the CDU about four weeks ago. Steinmeier, in addition to the 386-388 SPD seats, needs at least 242-244 (out of 542-543) CDU electors to vote for him in the first or second run.

    There will be at least three, possibly up to five other candidates, although all without chances:
    • within the Greens (145-146 seats) there are still attempts to get the Baden-Württemberg state ministerpresident Winfried Kretschmann to run; there are now also talks about possibly supporting Steinmeier
    • the Left (94 seats) already having announced they will also field a candidate, since Steinmeier as an "architect of Agenda 2010" *) is unvotable to them
    • FDP (33 seats) is pretty silent, and to my knowledge last talked about their own candidate in June
    • Albrecht Glaser will run for AfD (27 seats)
    • Alexander Hold will run for the Free Voters Union (10 seats)
    • like the Left, the Pirates (10 seats) have already also announced they won't vote for Steinmeier, so they might either run one of their own or possibly get with the Left candidate.
    • ABW (8 seats) as a splitoff of AfD will by then either rejoin AfD or vote for their candidate anyway.
    • the South-Schleswig Voters Union (Danish minority party, 1 seat) will likely vote for Steinmeier.

    *) Agenda 2010 was Gerhard Schröder's reform of the German welfare system.

    The Federal Assembly, the body that will elect Gauck's successor, is similar in function to the US Electoral College, although it constitutes itself differently. It will consist of the Bundestag members and an equal number of state representatives which will be divided between states based on population numbers (German nationals only) and themselves elected by the state parliaments. The election will be presided over by Norbert Lammert as the President of the Bundestag federal lower house, while the President of the Bundesrat upper house would be interim president if Gauck stepped down (or would be otherwise incapacitated) before the election.

    The exact composition of the Federal Assembly still depends on state elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin. The current composition (before those elections) would have in seats:
    • (43.2%) 544-545 for CDU
    • (30.9%) 388-390 for SPD
    • (11.7%) 147-148 for Greens
    • (7.5%) 94 for the Left
    • (2.8%) 35 for FDP
    • (1.6%) 20 for AfD
    • (1.0%) 12 for the Pirates
    • (0.8%) 10 for the Free Voters Union
    • (0.6%) 8 for ABW
    • (0.1%) 1 for NPD
    • (0.1%) 1 for SSW

    Different numbers further above are taking likely outcomes for the elections into account, mostly a strong AfD showing.
    Last edited by kato; 15 Nov 16,, 19:59.

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  • Doktor
    replied
    Originally posted by kato View Post
    Gauck announced today that he will not run for a second term.

    The Federal Assembly will convene on Feb 12th 2017 to elect a new president.

    It is highly likely that there will be four candidates again, one each supported by CDU, SPD, Left and likely AfD. Unless other parties come to a coalition - and that would require the Left and Greens supporting the SPD candidate along with the Pirates - the CDU candidate would likely be voted in in the third round with only a relative majority. The only possible coalitions to find an absolute majority are "left of Center" (Red-Red-Green-Pirate), "grand" (Black-Red) or Black-Green; since federal parliament elections are only seven months later the CDU can't afford to field a joint candidate with either the SPD or Greens though. There'll be two state elections later this year that will modify the composition of the assembly, but not to an extent that majorities will shift.

    The CDU leadership currently seems to be eyeing Norbert Lammert, current federal parliament president, as a possible candidate, while the right wing of the CDU is pushing for Wolfgang Schäuble, current minister of finances. From the SPD side there have been rumours that Frank-Walter Steinmeier, current foreign minister, "could be a good candidate". It is highly unlikely anything definitive appears on this before the two state elections in September, and the full field not before the turn of the year.

    Given current projections, the state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will turn out either a Grand or Red-Red-Green coalition, while Berlin state might be able to wing a Red-Green coalition depending on SPD performance. Both currently are ruled by Grand Coalitions, and could lose the federal government 7 of its 20 assured votes in the federal senate (where the federal Grand Coalition has nowhere near a majority - Green approval has a 65% majority right now). As such the state elections, while they won't change much for the Federal Assembly, could also be seen as an early warning on coalitions forming up.
    Damn, he just did this to ruin my prediction for two terms.

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  • kato
    replied
    Gauck announced today that he will not run for a second term.

    The Federal Assembly will convene on Feb 12th 2017 to elect a new president.

    It is highly likely that there will be four candidates again, one each supported by CDU, SPD, Left and likely AfD. Unless other parties come to a coalition - and that would require the Left and Greens supporting the SPD candidate along with the Pirates - the CDU candidate would likely be voted in in the third round with only a relative majority. The only possible coalitions to find an absolute majority are "left of Center" (Red-Red-Green-Pirate), "grand" (Black-Red) or Black-Green; since federal parliament elections are only seven months later the CDU can't afford to field a joint candidate with either the SPD or Greens though. There'll be two state elections later this year that will modify the composition of the assembly, but not to an extent that majorities will shift.

    The CDU leadership currently seems to be eyeing Norbert Lammert, current federal parliament president, as a possible candidate, while the right wing of the CDU is pushing for Wolfgang Schäuble, current minister of finances. From the SPD side there have been rumours that Frank-Walter Steinmeier, current foreign minister, "could be a good candidate". It is highly unlikely anything definitive appears on this before the two state elections in September, and the full field not before the turn of the year.

    Given current projections, the state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will turn out either a Grand or Red-Red-Green coalition, while Berlin state might be able to wing a Red-Green coalition depending on SPD performance. Both currently are ruled by Grand Coalitions, and could lose the federal government 7 of its 20 assured votes in the federal senate (where the federal Grand Coalition has nowhere near a majority - Green approval has a 65% majority right now). As such the state elections, while they won't change much for the Federal Assembly, could also be seen as an early warning on coalitions forming up.

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  • kato
    replied
    Originally posted by Doktor View Post
    Is it a public vote?
    Of course not. Secrecy is considered one of the core tenets of a real democratic system, and applied in almost every election in Germany (not in votes in parliamentary bodies, those aren't elections). Violating it is punishable by a couple years jail here.

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  • Doktor
    replied
    kato,

    Is it a public vote? I ask you this because, imv, later those who were abstaining, those who refused to vote and those voting invalid... should have no say in the Presidents rule.

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  • kato
    replied
    Originally posted by kato View Post
    The way this is going i doubt Gauck will garner even just say 900 votes from the 1,099 votes the five parties supporting him hold.
    Gauck got 991 votes today, Klarsfeld 126, neonazi Olaf Rose got 3 votes from the NPD and 108 delegates abstained, 7 delegates refused to attend the assembly, 5 gave invalid votes.

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  • kato
    replied
    None of the four alive ex-presidents (Schmidt, von Weizsäcker, Herzog, Köhler) will take part in the military ceremonies for Wulff's dismissal btw.

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  • kato
    replied
    The Federal Republic of Germany is a democratic and social federal state. All state authority is derived from the people. It shall be exercised by the people through elections and other votes and through specific legislative, executive and judicial bodies. All Germans shall have the right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order, if no other remedy is available.

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  • Egerland
    replied
    Time to push the reset button (to 1910), bring back the Kaiser and the Mark.

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  • kato
    replied
    Originally posted by kato View Post
    Groenewald is a manager of a movie production fonds that received a 4 million Euro debt guarantee for one of its subsidiary companies from the state of Lower Saxony in 2006. Wulff also lobbied for movie production funds of the type Groenewald ran, which back in 2005 were under fire for being nothing but tax writeoff fonds for investors.
    Groenewold's offices and home were searched yesterday. A planned search of Wulff's home on thursday was cancelled due to the presence of too many journalists. All Lower Saxon state ministries currently have staff going through their files searching for anything connecting Groenewold with Wulff and Glaeseker. The files handed over to the Hannover district attorney so far only comprise 450 pages and are considered incomplete in this regard.

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  • kato
    replied
    Klarsfeld was officially nominated today.

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  • Doktor
    replied
    With the destiny of your last two presidents, I think Schramm would live long and prosperous two terms life :)

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