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Merkel suffers historic defeat in German state elections

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  • kato
    replied
    Hessen was the next to vote, today.

    First prognosis

    CDU - 27.0 to 28.0% (-10.3 to -11.3)
    SPD - 20.0% (-10.7)
    Greens - 19.5 to 20% (+7.9 to +8.4)
    AfD - 12.0 to 13.0% (+7.9 to +8.9)
    FDP - 7.0 to 7.5% (+2.0 to +2.5)
    Left - 6.5% (+1.3)

    The results pretty much exactly match the surveys in the last couple weeks.

    Will be interesting how this runs in detail, because as it goes right now it depends on the exact numbers (incl. overhang mandates and such) whether e.g. a continuation of the current CDU-Green or a new Green-SPD-Left government would be possible.

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  • kato
    replied
    End result still moved slightly:

    CSU 37.2% - 85 seats
    Greens 17.5% - 38 seats
    Free Voters 11.6% - 27 seats
    AfD 10.2% - 22 seats
    SPD 9.7% - 22 seats
    FDP 5.1% - 11 seats
    Left 3.2%
    Others 5.4%

    Greens won 6 direct mandates, i.e. had six districts where they were the strongest party ahead of the CSU. This included five out of six districts in Munich City.

    CSU bled on all sides, losing 180,000 each to AfD and Greens, as well as laterally 170,000 to Free Voters.

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  • kato
    replied
    First prognosis from the booths based on exit polls:

    CSU 35.5%
    Greens 18.5-19.0%
    Free Voters 11.5%
    AfD 11.0%
    SPD 9.5-10%
    FDP 5.0%
    Left 3.5%
    Others 5.0%

    And yes, our survey institutes do a pretty freakin' good job once you mash them all together to eliminate bias in favour of one party or another.

    Seat distribution will probably end up in favour of a CSU / Free Voters coalition.

    Somewhat interestingly, despite all the refugee hubbub, the right-wing camp only gained 3%. In exit polls, only 33% of voters considered the issue relevant to their decision (while about tied at 51-52% as Top 3 were education, climate and affordable housing). Participation in the election rose significantly, from about 64 to about 73%, the strongest turnout since the early 80s.

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  • kato
    replied
    Bavaria is voting tomorrow.

    Results to be expected (broadly) are:
    - CSU : around 35% (reduced by one-quarter compared to last election)
    - Greens : around 18% (doubled)
    - SPD / AfD / Free Voters : all around 10-11% (SPD giving half its voters to AfD, Free Voters stable)
    - FDP / Left : both around 5%, Left probably not getting in (both nearly doubled)

    with probably either a CSU/FV/FDP government or a CSU/FV government likely if FDP doesn't get in.

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  • kato
    replied
    Bavaria is voting tomorrow.

    Results to be expected (broadly) are:
    - CSU : around 35% (reduced by one-quarter compared to last election)
    - Greens : around 18% (doubled)
    - SPD / AfD / Free Voters : all around 10-11% (SPD giving half its voters to AfD, Free Voters stable)
    - FDP / Left : both around 5%, Left probably not getting in (both nearly doubled)

    with probably either a CSU/FV/FDP government or a CSU/FV government likely if FDP doesn't get in.

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  • kato
    replied
    ARD is now floating a prognosis that would give Red-Green an exact one-seat majority (with SPD at 37.7, CDU at 33.7, Greens at 8.8, FDP at 7.21 and AfD at 6.0). Red-Green previously ruled the state with exactly that one-seat majority.

    However Lower Saxony does have a rather complicated seat distribution system which might make for surprises all the way to the end - either way.

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  • kato
    replied
    6 pm, First prognosis from exit polls for Lower Saxony:

    - CDU : 35.0% (-1.0%)
    - SPD : 37.5% (+4.9%) (!!)
    - Greens : 8.5% (-5.2%)
    - FDP : 7.0% (-2.9%)
    - AFD : 5.5% (+5.5%)
    - Left : 4.8% (+1.7%)

    The elections in Lower Saxony were prompted by a Green representative switching her colors to CDU, hence the punishment for them.
    The SPD result is considered rather surprising given they were polling at around 32% up to a week ago. Other results are largely in line with recent surveys, although the AfD performed considerably lower than predicted.
    Last edited by kato; 15 Oct 17,, 17:13.

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  • kato
    replied
    Next state election is on sunday, in Lower Saxony.

    Will be interesting insofar as the result pretty much hinges on whether the Left makes it into parliament - they're hovering around the 5% hurdle. If they make it in and the SPD shows the strength surveys this week there's a possibility for a Red-Red-Green government (latest projection shows that to have a single-seat majority over CDU, FDP and AfD).

    Final results of the federal election three weeks ago within the state were:
    Click image for larger version

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    FPTP votes at top, PR votes at bottom (the difference shows that e.g. half of all FDP voters voted tactically).

    AfD is now projected at 7% in the state, slightly weaker than they performed there in the federal election (9.1%). SPD is considered in the last two weeks to have shown significant gains, possible with up to 34% (vs 27.4%).

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  • kato
    replied
    Final result

    CDU - 32.0% () - 25 seats (+3)
    SPD - 27.2% (-3.2) - 21 seats (-1)
    Greens - 12.9% (-0.3) - 10 seats
    FDP - 11.5% (+3.3) - 9 seats (+3)
    AfD - 5.9% (+5.9) - 5 seats (+5)
    Left - 3.8% (+1.5) - 0 seats
    SSW - 3.3% (-1.3) - 3 seats
    Others - 3.4% (-3.7) - 0 seats (-6)

    4 overhang mandates generated; required for majority 37 seats.

    Previous government (SPD/Green/SSW) - 34 seats

    Possible coalitions
    CDU/SPD - 46 seats
    CDU/FDP/Green - 44 seats
    SPD/FDP/Green - 40 seats

    Leave a comment:


  • kato
    replied
    6 pm prognosis:


    [ZDF]

    CDU - 34.0% - 26 seats
    SPD - 27.0% - 20 seats
    Greens - 12.5% - 9 seats
    FDP - 10.5% - 8 seats
    AfD - 5.5% - 4 seats
    Left - 3.5% - 0 seats
    SSW - 3.0% - 2 seats
    Others - 4.0% - 0 seats

    [ARD]

    CDU - 33%
    SPD - 26%
    Greens - 13.5%
    FDP - 11.5%
    AfD - 5.5%
    Left - 3.5%
    SSW - 3.5%
    Others - 4.5%

    Leave a comment:


  • kato
    replied
    Schleswig-Holstein state election today.

    Amalgated survey from last five polls:

    CDU - 32.0% (+1.2%) - 24 seats (+2)
    SPD - 30.4% (+0.0%) - 23 seats (+1)
    Greens - 12.0% (-1.2%) - 9 seats (-1)
    FDP - 9.5% (+1.3%) - 7 seats (+1)
    AfD - 5.6% (+5.6%) - 4 seats (+4)
    Left - 4.6% (+2.3%) - 0 seats (-0)
    SSW - 3.2% (-1.4%) - 2 seats* (-1)
    Others - 2.7% (-7.8%) - 0 seats (-6)

    * Danish minority party not subject to 5% rule.

    Majority needs 35 out of 69 seats, which the current coalition exactly holds.
    -> SPD/Greens/SSW - 34 seats (-1)
    -> CDU/FDP - 31 seats (+3)

    => nominally predicting a Grand Coalition unless the SPD gets its act together. FDP leadership has already offered a SPD/Green/FDP or CDU/Green/FDP coalition though, so it'd be more likely one of those.

    Results in two hours.
    Last edited by kato; 07 May 17,, 15:22.

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  • kato
    replied
    It's interesting to for once see an election again in which the AfD pretty much plays no role.

    That's a Sarre speciality though. Their local AfD chapter is considered rightwing-extremist by the AfD itself - the federal group has tried to dissolve the Sarre AfD before, for too much integration with the neonazi NPD. In surveys, the AfD in Saarland scores the lowest of any state AfD chapter in Germany.

    First polls incoming in 7 minutes.

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  • kato
    replied
    Next state election in Germany is Saarland next sunday.

    The Schulz effect has a likely interesting outcome over there: Right now in surveys, clear political camps of equivalent support have reemerged - CDU and AfD on the Right and SPD and Left on the Left, with everyone else likely out of parliament.

    Last four surveys, amalgated:
    • CDU : 35.5% - 21 seats (+2)
    • SPD : 33.0% - 20 seats (+3)
    • Left : 12.5% - 7 seats (-2)
    • AfD : 6.6% - 3 seats (+3)
    • Greens : 4.4% - 0 seats (-2)
    • FDP : 3.8% - 0 seats (0)
    • Others: 4.2% - 0 seats (-4; Pirates)

    FGW 03/17, Infratest 03/16, Forsa 03/09, INSA 03/07

    Saarland is the home country of Oskar Lafontaine, the guy who split off the left wing of the SPD and joined the former east-German state party to form the Left. As such they perform exceptionally well for a western state. Lafontaine himself was minister-president of Saarland from 1985 to 1998, the only time the state was run by the SPD since it was annexed by Germany in 1956.

    The state is currently ruled by a Grand Coalition under CDU leadership, formed after the same CDU minister-president previously crashed a Jamaica coalition (CDU/Green/FDP - Black/Green/Yellow) after only 10 months.
    Last edited by kato; 21 Mar 17,, 18:32.

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  • Toby
    replied
    Originally posted by Marko View Post
    I like Schulz, he was good as President. Apparently speaks five languages. a Berlusconi hated him. Likened him to a Nazi Prison guard. Wonder what BoJo thinks of him?
    You know him personally?

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  • Marko
    replied
    I like Schulz, he was good as President. Apparently speaks five languages. a Berlusconi hated him. Likened him to a Nazi Prison guard. Wonder what BoJo thinks of him?

    Leave a comment:

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