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Merkel suffers historic defeat in German state elections

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  • Have they been third? Like ever?
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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    • Merkel wont ever admit she is WRONG

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      • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
        Have they been third? Like ever?
        For state elections:

        2011 - Bremen state - CDU 20.3% in third place behind SPD, Greens
        2004 - Brandenburg state - CDU 19.4% in third place behind SPD, Left (Result: Red-Red coalition)
        1994 - Brandenburg state - CDU 18.7% in second place behind SPD, only 72 votes ahead of Left, equal seat numbers (Result: SPD absolute majority)
        1950 - Hessen state - CDU 18.8% in third place behind SPD, FDP (smallest party in parliament)

        Also:

        1951 - Bremen state - CDU 9.1% in fourth place behind SPD, DP, FDP
        1950 - Schleswig-Holstein state - CDU 19.8% in third place behind SPD, BHE

        Those two can't really be counted since the CDU later swallowed the carcasses of its right-wing-edge (nationalist) competitors DP and BHE.

        Comment


        • Berlin state election is tomorrow. In surveys taken this week Greens have been dropping a bit (falling behind the CDU) while AfD has been rising in the wake of the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election two weeks ago (though still in fifth place).

          Amalgated from surveys this week (FGW 09/15, Forsa 09/15, INSA 09/12):

          SPD - 23.0% - 33 seats
          CDU - 17.7% - 25 seats
          Greens - 16.7% - 24 seats
          Left - 14.5% - 21 seats
          AfD - 13.7% - 19 seats
          FDP - 5.8% - 8 seats
          Others - 8.8%

          FGW traditionally posts slightly CDU-leaning, Forsa slightly SPD-leaning, INSA generally AfD-leaning. So while there's bias pushing them together corrects that somewhat.

          Required majority is 66 seats. Which means we're heading for another three-party coalition there, but with a rather solid left-leaning vote likely cast tomorrow - there's no possibility of a right-wing two- or three-party coalition unlike in other states. SPD has also already announced they won't continue their current coalition with CDU. Conservative media are expecting a SPD-Green-Left (Red-Green-Red, solid 78 seat majority) coalition while hoping for SPD-Green-FDP (Red-Green-Yellow, which at 65 seats wouldn't even work now). Berlin had a red-red coalition until 2011.

          The historic low point of the SPD was previously in 1999 at 24.9% of mandates won. In the next election in 2001 the CDU lost more than half (!) their mandates to a point from which they still haven't managed to return, and from where they'll now likely sink even a bit further.

          While the left will lose slightly in total results, they're likely to profit from the AfD situation btw in that they'll likely get 20+ direct mandates (out of 78), twice what they currently have and which interestingly - if Berlin were first-past-the-post - would make them largest party on direct mandates. This might actually be significant enough that the Left will generate overhang mandates, something which generally only CDU and SPD manage.
          Last edited by kato; 17 Sep 16,, 13:53.

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          • And the finger pointing sabre rattlers are starting to fall out .Merkel is no longer flavour of the month .

            EUROPEAN Union (EU) bosses have blamed Angela Merkel and her open-door policy for the migrant crisis and Islamic State (ISIS) terror attacks on the continent.

            As the remaining 27 EU leaders attempted to put on a show of unity at a summit in Bratislava, Slovakia, Donald Tusk, president of the European Council hit out at the German Chancellor.
            He said she created chaos in the region by welcoming 1.1million Syrian migrants last year.

            Mr Tusk blamed “political correctness” for delays in closing Europe’s borders in 2015 which allowed more than a million into the continent unchecked, including ISIS jihadis who attacked Paris and Brussels killing 130 and 32 people respectively.

            Mrs Merkel was forced to listen to EU leaders ripped into her – destroying the unity leaders of the EU are attempting to portray as they meet to talk about the future of Europe after Britain voted in June to leave the bloc.
            A note to diplomats before the summit from Mr Tusk urged the EU “never to allow return to chaos of last year
            ”.

            summitAll 27 remaining leaders of the EU are at the summit to discuss Brexit

            In the invite, he referenced “last year’s chaos on our borders” in reference to the crisis made worse by Mrs Merkel’s decision to open up Germany’s doors to Syrian refugees.


            He wrote: “New images every day of hundreds of thousands of people moving across our continent without any control, created a feeling of threat among many Europeans.

            “They had to wait too long for action to bring the situation under control.


            “Instead, all too often they heard politically correct statements that Europe cannot become a fortress, that it must remain open.”


            Countries across the union have deeply differing views about how to deal with the migrant crisis, with the issue of border control top of the agenda in Bratislava.
            The German Chancellor fought back against criticism of her refugee policy from several leaders during a two-hour working lunch on the Danube aboard German pleasure boat, MS Regina Danubia and four and a half hours of meetings in Bratislava’s medieval castle.

            ParisMigrants have set up camps all over Europe

            She is set for another difficult day tomorrow as Germans go to the polls for state elections in Berlin, with her ruling Christian Democrat (CDU) coalition being forced to contend with a rise in votes for anti-migrant parties.
            Diplomats said concern over the elections has led Mrs Merkel to stay away from any criticism over Europe to prevent a planned EU declaration being used against her.

            One EU diplomat, said: “The word ‘chaos’ was in the text that was presented to national delegations.

            “Germany had sensitivities about the word which was replaced by the term ‘uncontrolled flows’.”

            Following yesterday’s summit, leaders agreed to create an EU border and coastguard patrol by next month, with 200 extra border guards and 50 extra vehicles to be deployed on the under-pressure Bulgarian border at the exterior of the EU.

            Comment


            • Preliminary results for Berlin see 36-37 seats for SPD (-10 to -11), 29 for CDU (-10), 26 for Left (+7), 25-26 for Greens (-3 to -4), 21-22 for AfD (new) and 10-11 for FDP (new). Results roughly match the last surveys, plus overhang mandates.

              Clear vote for a change of government. To the left.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by tankie View Post
                And the finger pointing sabre rattlers are starting to fall out .Merkel is no longer flavour of the month .

                EUROPEAN Union (EU) bosses have blamed Angela Merkel and her open-door policy for the migrant crisis and Islamic State (ISIS) terror attacks on the continent.

                As the remaining 27 EU leaders attempted to put on a show of unity at a summit in Bratislava, Slovakia, Donald Tusk, president of the European Council hit out at the German Chancellor.
                He said she created chaos in the region by welcoming 1.1million Syrian migrants last year.

                Mr Tusk blamed “political correctness” for delays in closing Europe’s borders in 2015 which allowed more than a million into the continent unchecked, including ISIS jihadis who attacked Paris and Brussels killing 130 and 32 people respectively.

                Mrs Merkel was forced to listen to EU leaders ripped into her – destroying the unity leaders of the EU are attempting to portray as they meet to talk about the future of Europe after Britain voted in June to leave the bloc.
                A note to diplomats before the summit from Mr Tusk urged the EU “never to allow return to chaos of last year
                ”.

                summitAll 27 remaining leaders of the EU are at the summit to discuss Brexit

                In the invite, he referenced “last year’s chaos on our borders” in reference to the crisis made worse by Mrs Merkel’s decision to open up Germany’s doors to Syrian refugees.


                He wrote: “New images every day of hundreds of thousands of people moving across our continent without any control, created a feeling of threat among many Europeans.

                “They had to wait too long for action to bring the situation under control.


                “Instead, all too often they heard politically correct statements that Europe cannot become a fortress, that it must remain open.”


                Countries across the union have deeply differing views about how to deal with the migrant crisis, with the issue of border control top of the agenda in Bratislava.
                The German Chancellor fought back against criticism of her refugee policy from several leaders during a two-hour working lunch on the Danube aboard German pleasure boat, MS Regina Danubia and four and a half hours of meetings in Bratislava’s medieval castle.

                ParisMigrants have set up camps all over Europe

                She is set for another difficult day tomorrow as Germans go to the polls for state elections in Berlin, with her ruling Christian Democrat (CDU) coalition being forced to contend with a rise in votes for anti-migrant parties.
                Diplomats said concern over the elections has led Mrs Merkel to stay away from any criticism over Europe to prevent a planned EU declaration being used against her.

                One EU diplomat, said: “The word ‘chaos’ was in the text that was presented to national delegations.

                “Germany had sensitivities about the word which was replaced by the term ‘uncontrolled flows’.”

                Following yesterday’s summit, leaders agreed to create an EU border and coastguard patrol by next month, with 200 extra border guards and 50 extra vehicles to be deployed on the under-pressure Bulgarian border at the exterior of the EU.
                so the rabid dogs start biting each other

                Comment


                • Originally posted by kato View Post

                  Clear vote for a change of government. To the left.
                  interesting when you consider that a lot of countries with recent elections have seen shifts to the right, or independents favouring the right
                  Linkeden:
                  http://au.linkedin.com/pub/gary-fairlie/1/28a/2a2
                  http://cofda.wordpress.com/

                  Comment


                  • Final results:
                    SPD 21.6% - 38 seats
                    CDU 17.6% - 31 seats
                    Left 15.6% - 27 seats
                    Greens 15.2% - 27 seats
                    AfD 14.2% - 25 seats
                    FDP 6.7% - 12 seats
                    Coalition needs at least 81 seats to rule. Red-red-green has 92 seats.

                    Like previous elections, the AfD votership was primarily fed by a marked increase in voter participation, i.e. by mobilizing previous non-voters.

                    Originally posted by gf0012-aust View Post
                    interesting when you consider that a lot of countries with recent elections have seen shifts to the right, or independents favouring the right
                    Well, realistically it's a move to either edge. But the left side tends to come up on top that way in Germany.

                    Comment


                    • Woken up then ??.

                      Angela Merkel signals she may back down from open-door refugee policy after disastrous Berlin election
                      Merkel at a press conference on Monday

                      Justin Huggler, berlin
                      19 SEPTEMBER 2016 • 3:12PM
                      Angela Merkel on Monday signalled for the first time that she was prepared to change her controversial refugee policy in the wake of heavy losses to the resurgent far-Right in regional elections.

                      “If I knew what change in refugee policy the people in Germany want, I would be prepared to consider it,” Mrs Merkel said.

                      “If I could, I would go back in time to be better prepared for the refugee crisis in 2015, for which we were rather unprepared.”

                      Mrs Merkel was speaking at a specially arranged press conference to address her Christian Democrat (CDU) party’s disastrous performance in Berlin state elections at the weekend.

                      “I take responsibility as party leader and chancellor,” she said, describing the results as “bitter”.

                      The CDU slipped to its worst ever showing in the German capital, with just 17.6 per cent.


                      The anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won the highest share of the vote for the far-Right since the Second World War, with 14.5 per cent.

                      Mrs Merkel said she would not repeat her earlier slogan in the migrant crisis of “We can do it” because it had become “an empty phrase”.

                      It was the first time she has indicated she is prepared to back down from her “open-door” refugee policy, which has seen the CDU fall to its lowest level in the national polls for four years, and her personal approval ratings plummet.

                      Peter Foster talks about Merkel's migrant crisis one year onPlay! 01:52
                      The chancellor reacted defiantly to previous losses in regional elections, but in a sign of how seriously she is taking the Berlin results, cancelled plans to attend the UN General Assembly in New York in favour of Monday’s press conference.

                      With just a year to go before national elections, Mrs Merkel is still refusing to say whether she will stand for a historic fourth term as chancellor.

                      But it is clear that Mrs Merkel feels she can no longer allow her party to go on suffering defeats at the hands of the far-Right.

                      During her more than 10 years in power in Germany, Mrs Merkel has repeatedly shown that no position is non-negotiable and she is prepared to change course if necessary - most notably when she made a U-turn over her unpopular support for nuclear energy before 2013’s elections.

                      Angela Merkel vows 'everything possible' for security of German peoplePlay! 01:07
                      Until now, she has remained immovable over her refugee policy. But at Monday’s press conference she indicated she is prepared to shift her position.

                      But she also made it clear she is not prepared to back down completely.

                      “If people don’t want Muslim asylum-seekers purely because of their religion, that is contrary to our party principles and to Germany’s,” she said. “The CDU and I cannot go along with that.”

                      The election results in Berlin came just two weeks after similar losses in the northern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and her allies are demanding action.

                      “This is the second massive wake-up call in two weeks,” Markus Söder of her Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) said.

                      “It is high time we find common ground to survive at the next election,” Horst Seehofer, the CSU party leader, said, adding that the sister parties faced “the most difficult position we have ever been in”.


                      One problem for Mrs Merkel is that any changes she makes to her refugee policy will be largely cosmetic at this point.



                      Commentators have also pointed out that there was more to the CDU’s poor showing in the Berlin elections than her refugee policy. The German capital has serious administrative problems, with residents facing waits of several months for routine procedures such as reporting a lost driving license.

                      But it is the rise of the AfD which has dominated the headlines and unnerved Mrs Merkel’s allies.

                      The party now holds the far-Right’s first seats in the Berlin state parliament since the 1990 reunification of Germany, and its councillors will have direct influence over refugee policy.

                      Comment


                      • Well, she should. One third of all Green voters stated that they voted Green because they disagreed with the grand coalition government's anti-refugee policies. The only other party where the topic of refugees was voted important was AfD.

                        - AfD voters only disagree on two things considered important by them with the mainstream right-wing edge voters (i.e. average CDU and FDP voters). Those two things are refugees and capitalism.
                        - Green voters similarly only disagree on two things considered important to them with the mainstream centrist voters (i.e. average SPD voters). In their case those two are refugees and - of course - environmental matters.

                        As a whole this diversification is pretty interesting, mostly because the left and right camps in Germany consist of parties that only disagree on a single issue each traditionally. The core identifiers of each camp - convergent positions on social justice and inner security - remain, but the refugee issue as a new item splits not just the right camp but also the left camp.

                        The party now holds the far-Right’s first seats in the Berlin state parliament since the 1990 reunification of Germany, and its councillors will have direct influence over refugee policy.
                        This is wrong btw. The Republicans held seats from 1989 to 1991, losing them in an election that occured two months after reunification (falling below 5% in West Berlin too btw).
                        Last edited by kato; 19 Sep 16,, 19:05.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by kato View Post
                          but the refugee issue as a new item splits not just the right camp but also the left camp.
                          because not all people in the left camp are insane.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by drhuy View Post
                            because not all people in the left camp are insane.
                            You don't quite understand. Those voters who voted Green for the refugee issue voted that because they think the government's treatment of refugees is abysmal and that the government's policies are against refugees.

                            This is partly a Berlin-specific problem. Berlin's "Lageso" office for social affairs, run by a CDU minister and his cronies, already had problems handling refugees before last year; there have been legal cases for widescale corruption at the top in that regard; also, the security company in charge of handling the lines was later exposed as being headed by neonazis (and being involved in said corruption too), and last April it was exposed that Lageso hired some Arab-speaking goons from the local mafia as translators without any background checks.

                            In 2014 the office closed entirely for a week because they couldn't handle a short rush of refugees coming in (which all other state did not find noticable and easy to handle), and in mid-2015 they had lines where people had to wait for up to a week (literally - leave the line, lose your spot) even to just register - by late August there were regular riots there, and a few weeks later someone even used the confusion around the agency to kidnap and murder a refugee kid there with his parents. By January, it was discovered that Lageso did not pay out money for food to refugees for weeks, leaving them going hungry. And even by now Berlin is still about the only state in Germany that houses refugees in the worst-possible confitions in some 40 confiscated sports arenas - and plans to continue to do so till the end of the year.

                            The whole affair went so far that the state government didn't just overhaul Lageso internally. They took the refugees away from Lageso and founded a new agency (LAF) this August. After already trying the same thing and failing at it at the beginning of the year.

                            Comment


                            • A useful survey on German public opinion re refugees:

                              http://www.dw.com/en/survey-germany-...ges/a-19489757

                              And attitudes in Europe:

                              http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...s-in-5-charts/
                              Last edited by citanon; 21 Sep 16,, 10:22.

                              Comment


                              • I always kinda dislike polls that go "in those 10 EU member countries surveyed..." since to me it often looks like cherry-picking - one way or the other. There's oddly barely ever polls of either every EU member country or at least a defined subset - e.g. all six states above 30 million people - so one could draw long-term comparison statistics out of them.

                                And what's odd with Pew - apart from that - is that they always seem to use horribly outdated data. An article in September on a poll taken in spring.

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