Statquo and OOE Club: Canadian Politics

[Albany Rifles]

Reliability and dependability. You want a rifle that will continue to function in extreme cold with a minimum of maintenance and you want a round that will drop a polar bear at distance.

Also, as I recall, the Canadian SLRs were having issues with splits appearing in the receivers/chambers due to aging. Heard it from 3RCR & PPCLI officers I served with an read in trade journals in the 1980s-90s.

[Officer of Engineers]

Also, as I recall, the Canadian SLRs were having issues with splits appearing in the receivers/chambers due to aging. Heard it from 3RCR & PPCLI officers I served with an read in trade journals in the 1980s-90s.

Yeah, they were at the end of their service life and were replaced with Tikka T3s, another bolt action chambered for .308

[Monash]

I would have just bought new .308 battle rifle, you'd only be talking a few thousand new rifles. Is the defense budget really that tight?

[Officer of Engineers]

Think you misunderstood. The Rangers are a para military unit, not a regforce unit. Their primary purpose is to show the flag, not enforce sovereignty. As such, the primary need for their weapons is survival, not combat. When you need meat, you want the first shot to count. Otherwise, the animal is running away faster than you can reacquire target.

I keep telling this story. As a Captain, I went on a long range patrol with an Elder. This Elder promised meat half way through our patrol. We had enough rations to last the patrol but when an Elder promise, an Elder delivers. He went out onto the ice for four days straight. Nothing. Fifth day, he came back with nothing. He unhooked one of the dogs, shot it ... and we had meat.

[Monash]

I realized the primary need was for large calibers because, well bears and that they weren't a regular unit it just seems to me that if the shit ever did hit the fan in the arctic? You be better off arming them appropriately before hand. We have long range patrols across the the top end by reservists, the majority of whom are indigenous and there the problem is a large scaly predator not a furry one. We still arm them with military grade weapons though.

[Officer of Engineers]

Again, extreme cold maintenance. A bolt action is sure to work vs a semi-automatic. And if shit hits the fan, one shot one kill.

[Monash]

Again, extreme cold maintenance. A bolt action is sure to work vs a semi-automatic. And if shit hits the fan, one shot one kill.

So what do your regular armed forces get equipped with for arctic operations not bold actions I'm sure.

[Officer of Engineers]

Standard TOE for company/battle group. 5.56 C7/M16/SAW and 7.62x51 GPMGs small arms wise. The Rangers act as reccee for the coy group/battle group.

Think of the Rangers as para-military snipers and that's exactly what the Tikka T3 .308s give them.

[Albany Rifles]

So what do your regular armed forces get equipped with for arctic operations not bold actions I'm sure.

The SLRs I was referring to were the FN FAL used by the British and COmmonwealth forces as the SLR...Self Loading Rifle. It was notorious for jamming in subfreezing weather. Improvements in metallurgy & cleaner/lubricants which work better in cold weather since the late 70s/early80s when the issue with the SLRs is gone with the current family of weapons.

[Monash]

The SLRs I was referring to were the FN FAL used by the British and COmmonwealth forces as the SLR...Self Loading Rifle. It was notorious for jamming in subfreezing weather. Improvements in metallurgy & cleaner/lubricants which work better in cold weather since the late 70s/early80s when the issue with the SLRs is gone with the current family of weapons.

Yep, know it well from personal experience albeit jamming due to subfreezing conditions wasn't an issue that was high on our list of maintenance problems. I just wondered why newer models of the FAL or a similar weapon weren't purchases for the Rangers.

[Officer of Engineers]

I just wondered why newer models of the FAL or a similar weapon weren't purchases for the Rangers.

An average Ranger Patrol Group is 2000 strong spread over 60 odd patrols (coy strength) in 65 communities/villages. Their primary job is showing the flag, SAR, assist the RCMP, and from time to time act as reccee for the regforce. They're not meant to be combat reccee or combat stations. Combat firearms would be in fact detrimental to their needs, especially depot maintenance and storage.

[statquo]

Changes to training forced by budget cuts could leave military less ready for a fight, experts warn

Internal budget cuts at the Department of National Defence are being blamed for the Canadian Armed Forces decision to make radical changes to training for fighter pilots and for soldiers destined for Latvia — an overhaul that experts warn could undermine military readiness.

The army is no longer requiring that troops headed for deployment in Eastern Europe take part in a major qualifying exercise at the base in Wainwright, Alta., the department said in a media statement issued after CBC News asked questions.

Instead, the department said, the combined arms training will take place in the Baltic nation, alongside allies, after the troops arrive there.

The air force also announced recently that it will retire its aging fleet of jet trainers and farm out fighter jet qualification instruction to allied nations.

Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre, the country's top military commander, defended the decision recently and insisted there will be no erosion of quality among troops and fighter pilots.

Former army commander Andrew Leslie, an ex-Liberal MP, disagreed. The retired lieutenant-general said the combined arms training in Alberta — where soldiers learn to operate in concert with tanks, artillery and aircraft — helped make Canadian troops a cut above the rest and fully prepared for what they might face if Russian troops cross the Latvian border.

Leslie said withholding that level of training until soldiers can exercise with their allies in NATO's multinational brigade — which Canada leads — could be dangerous.

"They're going to have to learn on the job, using other people's equipment and expertise in the country" where they could end up fighting the Russians, said Leslie.

He said the Russians no doubt will take note of the change. "Keep in mind deterrence has to be credible," he added.

Leslie said he's "not aware of any other [NATO] army, which will be deploying troops to the front line of a possible confrontation with Russia, who are not 100 per cent trained according to a variety of battle test standards."

Most military experts agree that one of the reasons the Kremlin's initial full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 failed to achieve its objectives is the Russian Army's inability to coordinate infantry, tanks, artillery and aircraft into a seamless operation.

Analysts also agree that Moscow has learned from that experience and Russian troops facing Canadians across the border in Latvia will be battle-hardened.

The changes to training, which will see soldiers prepare themselves at their home bases before deploying overseas, are a consequence of almost $1 billion in internal departmental cuts — money that's being reallocated in some cases to pay for new equipment.

In a statement issued late Thursday, the defence department denied that internal cuts prompted the change. It insisted that allies deployed in the Baltic states agreed to make overall changes to the training regime 18 months ago and the army subsequently planned to revise its exercises "before decisions were made to refocus government spending."

Those revisions only took effect this year, however, and the statement did not explain why they had not been implemented in 2023 after the revision was proposed.

The statement acknowledged that the exercise in Alberta came with a "significant logistical requirement to move vehicles, equipment, and personnel from across Canada" to the training range.

"This will limit repetitive training, thereby focusing resources and reducing our soldiers' time away from home before deploying when compared to the old training model," the statement said.

A shortage of money, equipment and people

Defence Minister Bill Blair has insisted that the internal budget changes won't affect readiness and operations.

But Leslie said the changes are being made due to a lack of funds, a lack of working equipment and a lack of people.

"That's what it boils down to," he said. "We're willing to accept the fact that we're deploying troops to Latvia who will not meet the standards of even last year."

Previous Canadian troop rotations in Eastern Europe did go through the combined arms qualification before going to Latvia.

In a recent interview with CBC News, Eyre said the decision to end the training at Wainwright for soldiers bound for Latvia was made partly for quality-of-life reasons.

He said the army believes soldiers can acquire the necessary skills by exercising with allies in the country where they might have to fight — and that eliminating one level of training that requires travel gives troops more time at home with their families.

"It's a combination of ensuring enough training is done but it's done at the right place," said Eyre, who noted that when Canada stationed troops in Germany during the Cold War, the army followed a similar model — minimal workup training at home and a heavy rotation of exercises once in Europe.

"What we're finding was the battle groups, the various units that we're deploying, were spending a lot of time on exercise here at home to get to a very high level, and then going to Latvia and doing much of the same work," he said. "So we take a look at how much training is enough, based on indications and warnings on the threat."

The army will monitor the implementation of the new training regime and adjust where necessary, Eyre said.

"There's many different ways of achieving the readiness that's needed," he added.

But the army is not the only area of concern.

On March 8, 2024, the Royal Canadian Air Force quietly announced it would retire its fleet of CT-155 Hawk advanced trainer aircraft and change the way it trains fixed-wing fighter pilots.

The trainer was the last stop before student pilots were allowed to begin flying the country's CF-18 Hornets.

The air force's planned transition to the F-35 fighters had put the future of the Hawk trainer in doubt already, but their unexpected retirement means the country's fast jet training program is now on hold.

To fill the void, the RCAF is turning to the U.S, Italy and Finland, all of which host similar fighter lead-in training programs.

It's a big mistake, said former air force lieutenant-colonel and F-35 test pilot Billie Flynn.

"The decision of the RCAF to outsource fighter pilot training came at the expense of a sovereign program that emphasizes the very skills that young Fifth Generation pilots need to safely fly that aircraft [F-35] now and in the future," Flynn told CBC News.

He said the allied programs are generic and don't offer the kind of specific, individual instruction that made Canadian fighter pilots a unique and skilled breed.

"The RCAF is electing to offshore this training, and in the United States, what they're going to get is generic cookie-cutter training that works for the German air force, the Dutch, the Danes, the Norwegians and the United States Air Force," he said.

Flynn, who commanded 441 Tactical Fighter Squadron in Cold Lake, Alta. in the 1990s and flew combat missions over Kosovo, described the U.S. training as a regimented and rules-based program that downplays independent pilot thinking.

"That works in the biggest, most powerful air force in the world. That does not work in the RCAF, where we need warriors to think, to be agile and to assume responsibility in the earliest part of their career," he said.

The effect of the decision, he said, will be that commanders will have to teach pilots to think creatively once they're back from training abroad, and the graduates "will be that much further behind in those airmanship skills that are so essential, and that we expect from Canadian fighter pilots."

Eyre disagrees and said that as the air force introduces a series of new fleets, "pilot training is being adjusted accordingly."

The defence chief said the air force is increasing its use of simulators, which "greatly accelerates the road to proficiency."

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[Officer of Engineers]

Can't speak for the RCAF but this is not the first time Canadians trained in theatre. 2PPCLI trained in Korea before fighting the battle of Kap'Yong..

That being said, Eyre got to be the worst CDS since de Chastelain. There's no frigging excuse to take money from the training budgets. You raid other budgets to maintain training, not the other way around.

[Albany Rifles]

I am seeing shades of the US Army in the 1970s after Vietnam and the 1990s with the Wall coming down. We were strained to pull off Desert One and The Balkans damn near broke the Army.

[statquo]

If you think Biden has troubles, just look at Trudeau

The Canadian prime minister’s grim poll numbers stoke speculation about his future

OTTAWA — Justin Trudeau is running out of time.

He has trailed in polls by double digits for nearly a year, and the outlook for the once popular prime minister is so grim that some old guard Liberals have been grumbling that maybe he should just step down and give someone else a shot.

To turn it around and win a fourth term, Trudeau has less than 17 months before he must hold an election and face off against an ascendant Conservative Party and its firebrand populist leader, Pierre Poilievre.

Trouble is, nothing he’s tried so far to improve his standing has worked.

“The Liberals have tried to basically throw the political kitchen sink at the Conservatives to find a way to narrow the gap,” said Nik Nanos, one of the country’s leading pollsters.

Trudeau’s difficulties, to some extent, mirror those of President Joe Biden and some Western European leaders facing populist rage in a world still struggling to shake off the inflation and lingering anger over pandemic lockdowns.

The longest-serving leader in the G7 also has some unique problems, including fatigue with the Liberal party after three terms and a series of scandals that have damaged Trudeau’s image. Many Canadians have simply tuned out the prime minister, said Quito Maggi, a pollster with Mainstreet Research.

“It’s a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t scenario for Trudeau because it almost doesn’t matter what he does or says right now,” Maggi said. “No one’s listening. It’s not the message: It’s the messenger.”

Trudeau’s efforts have included arranging visits to Canada by Biden as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who received a standing ovation in Parliament. “None of these things have changed the trend,” Nanos said.

The speculation over whether Trudeau might step down, at this point, remains just that — with neither the prime minister nor any of his aides or allies saying he has any intention of throwing in the towel.

But the moment he says he’s going, he becomes a lame duck and the leadership race breaks out — so it’s in his interest to wait as long as possible before saying otherwise.

Some think the window is closing on that option — with just a month or two left. Otherwise, a new leader would not have enough time to be ready for the looming election, which could be triggered any time before fall of 2025.

At every turn, interviewers press Trudeau on whether he really plans to remain at the helm with the ship sinking. Yet at every opportunity, he insists he plans to stick it out.

“The stakes are so high, and the moment is so real,” Trudeau told the “Freakonomics Radio” podcast.

Spoiling for a fight

If anything, the prime minister shows signs he’s energized by the coming confrontation with Poilievre, who has harnessed and stoked political frustration by telling Canadians their country is “broken” and it’s all Trudeau’s fault.

Trudeau laid out his motivations in a talk-show interview earlier in the year, where he described the coming election as a battle against “easy populism, anger and division that is so running rampant in every society around the world.”

“I could not be the person I am and choose to step away from this fight right now.”

Trudeau’s political origin story is grounded in the outcome of a 2012 boxing match, where he defied expectations by beating a muscular senator in the ring. Ask any Liberal in Canada, even the dispirited, they’ll tell you he performs better when on the ropes.

And he is keen to square off with his rival — a prospect that seems to excite his inner pugilist.

Poilievre, a populist attack-dog leader soaring high in the polls, embodies the very politics and values Trudeau opposes.

“Here’s someone that really, really cranks [Trudeau’s] gears, that he believes he can defeat,” said a former senior Liberal granted anonymity to speak freely. “He sees someone who’s actively going to undo everything he’s tried to achieve.”

Trudeau and his party have sought to link Poilievre to Trump by pointing to similarities in their rhetorical style and political playbooks, and pounced after Poilievre earned an endorsement from conspiracy theorist Alex Jones.

The slogan-a-minute Conservative warrior spent the past year successfully turning the Liberal government into a punching bag over its complicated carbon tax and a nationwide housing crisis plaguing the same voters who first swept Trudeau into office.

At every turn, Poilievre’s Conservatives hound and goad and taunt the Liberals to call an early election, and take shots at anyone they think could be next in line for Trudeau’s job leading the Liberal Party.

Had the previous, more centrist Conservative leader, Erin O’Toole, not been given the boot after the last election, Trudeau might be more inclined to call it a day, the former senior Liberal said.

“I don’t think O’Toole sparks that reaction in him.”

Waiting in the wings

The country’s political elite have speculated for months about who could replace Trudeau, and establishment Liberals have even said the quiet part out loud.

Sen. Percy Downe, a former senior adviser to former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien called on Trudeau to step aside last year, a call that landed with a thud.

Former finance minister John Manley has compared Trudeau’s time in office to Seinfeld: a great show for nine seasons, but even it couldn’t net a tenth.

Earlier this year, a lesser-known lawmaker, Ken McDonald, broke rank and raised the idea of a leadership review, casting doubt over internal confidence in Trudeau — only to walk it back.

There is no obvious successor to the leader who brought his party from a distant third place to first in the 2015 federal election, making changing horses a big gamble.

“[Trudeau’s] group has completely stifled any kind of nurturing of that sort and not tolerated any dissent,” Maggi said.

Potential replacements keep popping up in news coverage amid frenzied speculation, but for a party once famous for its infighting, no one has tried to push him off the ledge.

“Back in 2015, when he took over the party, [Trudeau] changed the party to more of a movement,” Nanos said. “It’s hard to see a scenario where there would be a public dump-Trudeau movement.”

Big names within the Liberal tent are interested in the top job, but none has the full combo of x-factors that made Trudeau’s candidacy so potent: the celeb status, the narrative arc, his political dynasty, the top-notch retail politics game — the rizz.

“It’s not like oh, boom, if Trudeau is replaced by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, it’s back to neck and neck. It’s not working that way right now,” said Maggi, who is among the pollsters who have surveyed the public on potential replacements.

Sooner or later, though, someone will have to replace Trudeau.

Freeland has the strongest name recognition of the bunch, while the Conservatives, aiming to score points in Parliamentary debates, have billed Mark Carney, a former central banker to both Canada and the U.K., as the next in line after Trudeau.

Trudeau’s close friend, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who backed his leadership bid in 2013, and who returned to his job in recent years after taking a sudden leave due to a rare cancer, is the latest name floating around the capital.

But in the absence of signs of substantial organizing, much of the chatter looks more like fleeting hot goss and wishful thinking.

Pressure is on

Trudeau has spent the past year scrambling to dig himself out of his hole.

He tapped a new advertising spin master versed with millennials and Gen Z — key demographics he needs to bring into his party’s fold for a fighting chance.

Trudeau more recently rolled up his sleeves and criss-crossed the country for an unusual, weekslong campaign-style reveal of a major spending plan, aimed squarely at those two demographics and their financial pain.

The needle still isn’t moving.

That’s left him on an unusual tour of the podcast circuit, seeking out long-form interviews where he can explain himself and sell his tax-and-spend budget in a warmer environment than the hardball scrums with reporters around Parliament.

He still has options to try to reset the standings: shake up his Cabinet and top staff, change course on spending policies, launch a volley of attack ads.

Pollster Bruce Anderson of Spark Advocacy said voters suffering from Trudeau fatigue who are leaning toward his opponent are not locked in place.

“I see the market as being unsettled,” he said. “Our polling shows that there’s a lot of people looking for a less-right option than Poilievre and a less-left option than Justin Trudeau. This is part of the challenge that I think his progressive agenda has built for him and his party over time.”

Trudeau’s situation will only deteriorate heading into fall if his approval rating doesn’t improve, if fundraising dwindles, his caucus sours and more lawmakers announce that they don’t plan to run again.

“If the Liberal Party found itself in a situation a year from now, where it was 25 points behind in the polls, do I really think that they would get together at caucus on a Wednesday and say, ‘Yeah, let’s just keep going in this direction’? I don’t believe that’s how the chemistry of politics works.”

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The only thing that can possibly save Trudeau and the Liberals is if Trump gets elected and his first 6 months in office scare the shit out of people to have them run back to them.