Moldova: Putin's Consolation Prize

[Amled]

https://www.politico.eu/article/mold...le-shor-party/
Cute!
Energy has often been used as a weapon, but seldom as blatant as Russia’s current ploy in Moldova.
Russia slaps a 6 fold payment increase on supplying Moldova with natural gas!
When the Moldovan’s have trouble paying the payment hike,
Russia organizes a pro-Russian rent-a-mob to demand that the Moldovan government pay the price increase!
All the while the Russian shills are out pimping the message of cheap Russian energy.
"All you have to do is give up is your freedom and your country’s sovereignty!!!"

[Bigfella]

This seems like a very foolish thing to do. Transdnistria is on borrowed time. It is cut off from Russia, something that won't be changing anytime soon. Once the Ukraine war is done the spotlight is going to fall on this little enclave. Their best bet is to negotiate some sort of peaceful re-integration with possible semi-autonomy. Antagonize Moldova too much and they might invite their good friends in Ukraine to help them. That will be quick and brutal.

Putin has minimal leverage here. He missed his chance. All he can do now is make it worse for the ethnic Russians in Moldova.

[Amled]

This seems like a very foolish thing to do. Transdnistria is on borrowed time. It is cut off from Russia, something that won't be changing anytime soon. Once the Ukraine war is done the spotlight is going to fall on this little enclave. Their best bet is to negotiate some sort of peaceful re-integration with possible semi-autonomy. Antagonize Moldova too much and they might invite their good friends in Ukraine to help them. That will be quick and brutal.

Putin has minimal leverage here. He missed his chance. All he can do now is make it worse for the ethnic Russians in Moldova.

You’re right of course. The Russians have enough on their plate in Ukraine.
So the hoopla in Moldova/Transnistria is probably just a dis-information game,
one that might just siphon Ukrainian resources away from where they might be of greater use!
Plus it keeps “the pot boiling” along the borders to their puppet self-proclaimed states!
Georgia and East Ossetia is another case in point.

[Monash]

This seems like a very foolish thing to do. Transdnistria is on borrowed time. It is cut off from Russia, something that won't be changing anytime soon. Once the Ukraine war is done the spotlight is going to fall on this little enclave. Their best bet is to negotiate some sort of peaceful re-integration with possible semi-autonomy. Antagonize Moldova too much and they might invite their good friends in Ukraine to help them. That will be quick and brutal.

Putin has minimal leverage here. He missed his chance. All he can do now is make it worse for the ethnic Russians in Moldova.

Not sure exactly how 'brutal' it would be. Russia only has 1500 or so troops there, none of which are 1st tier units and most of whom who are lightly equipped. If Ukraine did get involved they could simply phone the local military commander ahead of invading and politely suggest he pack his bags so that he, his men and their equipment (such as it is) can all shipped back to Russia with a minimum of fuss for all concerned.

The best course of action after that would probably be for the Uki's to then let Moldova occupy the place so they themselves can't be accused of a territorial grab that might put some western noses out of joint.

[Bigfella]

You’re right of course. The Russians have enough on their plate in Ukraine.
So the hoopla in Moldova/Transnistria is probably just a dis-information game,
one that might just siphon Ukrainian resources away from where they might be of greater use!
Plus it keeps “the pot boiling” along the borders to their puppet self-proclaimed states!
Georgia and East Ossetia is another case in point.

I'm sure Putin would like to gain control of what is currently a strategically placed nation, but it would be incredibly short sighted and likely end up with a a poor outcome.

[Bigfella]

Not sure exactly how 'brutal' it would be. Russia only has 1500 or so troops there, none of which are 1st tier units and most of whom who are lightly equipped. If Ukraine did get involved they could simply phone the local military commander ahead of invading and politely suggest he pack his bags so that he, his men and their equipment (such as it is) can all shipped back to Russia with a minimum of fuss for all concerned.

The best course of action after that would probably be for the Uki's to then let Moldova occupy the place so they themselves can't be accused of a territorial grab that might put some western noses out of joint.

Those soldiers are backed up by a substantially larger militia. They don't have anywhere to go & might try to make a fight of it. Battle hardened Ukranians would make short work of them, but they might not be concerned about the niceities doing it. Additionally, Transdnistria is home to a rather large arsenal of Soviet era weapons & munitions. That is basically wha the Russian troops are guarding. Ukraine might not want to give them the opportunity to blow up all that kit by giving them a warning.

This could and should resolve peacefully, but tha tis true of plenty situations that have ended badly. Personally I think that picking a fight with a well armed group of Ukranians is not a great move, but Russians aren't doing that well in the smart decision making stakes recently.