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  • COVID 19: Beyond the US and China

    This is way beyond the threads we have posted already, which focus on the US and to a lesser extent China and India.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  • #2
    The best economic thinking on what’s happening, as of March 18, 2020. Serious stuff.

    Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes,
    Richard Baldwin and Beatrice Weder di Mauro, editors, (free)

    https://voxeu.org/content/mitigating...tever-it-takes

    Introduction
    Richard Baldwin and Beatrice Weder di Mauro

    1 So far, so good: And now don't be afraid of moral hazard
    Charles Wyplosz

    2 Flattening the pandemic and recession curves
    Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

    3 Limiting the economic fallout of the coronavirus with large targeted policies
    Gita Gopinath

    4 Italy, the ECB, and the need to avoid another euro crisis
    Olivier Blanchard

    5 The EU must support the member at the centre of the COVID-19 crisis

    Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi

    6 Helicopter money: The time is now
    Jordi Gali

    7 What the stock market tells us about the consequences of COVID-19

    Stefano Ramelli and Alexander Wagner

    8 Ten keys to beating back COVID-19 and the associated economic pandemic
    Shang-Jin Wei

    9 Saving China from the coronavirus and economic meltdown: Experiences and lessons
    Yi Huang, Chen Lin, Pengfei Wang and Zhiwei Xu

    10 China's changing economic priorities and the impact of COVID-19
    Jonathan Anderson

    11 Singapore's policy response to COVID-19
    Danny Quah

    12 The experience of South Korea with COVID-19
    Inkyo Cheong

    13 COVID-19: Europe needs a catastrophe relief plan
    Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Ramon Marimon, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Lucrezia Reichlin, Dirk Schoenmaker and Beatrice Weder di Mauro

    14 The COVID-19 bazooka for jobs in Europe

    Luis Garicano

    15 The monetary policy package: An analytical framework
    Philip R. Lane

    16 Bold policies needed to counter the coronavirus recession
    Christian Odendahl and John Springford

    17 Europe ís ground zero

    Ugo Panizza

    18 Economic implications of the COVID-19 crisis for Germany and economic policy measures
    Peter Bofinger, Sebastian Dullien, Gabriel Felbermayr, Clemens Fuest, Michael Hüther, Jens Südekum and Beatrice Weder di Mauro

    19 Finance in the times of COVID-19: What next?
    Thorsten Beck

    20 How COVID-19 could be like the Global Financial Crisis (or worse)
    Nora Lustig and Jorge Mariscal

    21 Protecting people now, helping the economy rebound later
    Jason Furman

    22 Policy in the time of coronavirus
    Pinelopi Goldberg

    23 Containing the economic nationalist virus through global coordination
    Adam S. Posen

    24 The case for permanent stimulus
    Paul Krugman
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

    Comment


    • #3
      From the book

      COVID-19 is highly infectious, but not particularly deadly.
      Wash your hands.

      The infection curve looks like it is expanding exponentially, but that’s just because we’re on the up-slope of a standard bell curve. The pace of infection is following the path first seen in China, which is now well over the top of the bell and heading down the other side. The rest of us “got started a little later,” for lack of a better description, so it looks worse than it is. Japan will be the last of the rich nations to peak, but the top of the bell may be much, much higher in Africa and other areas with poor infrastructure. China, Hong Kong, and Singapore seem to have figured out how to flatten the curve; most of the rest of the developed world has not, particularly Japan.
      Cover your mouth when you cough.

      There’s a serious consideration that the way to deal with it is to just let it run through the population, until everyone builds up an immunity. Except for those who don’t. Those with compromised immune systems die. Those without access to medical care die. Those with no one to look after them die. So, we need a better way.
      Don’t gather in crowds.

      The focus in the short-term is to reduce the speed of infection while caring for those in need. Medical care bottlenecks are real, and require sober triage management. Where we cannot flatten the curve, demand for scarce medical equipment and attention will result in far more deaths.
      Stay away from other people as much as possible.

      Keeping people at home for weeks on end has already caused a global recession. This is not so much an economic policy choice as a public health measure. The recession will be deep, and long. The longer and deeper it is, the fewer people die from COVID-19.
      Do good things for your health.

      People who rely on getting paid every day or every week are in serious trouble. The policy response needs to be both cash injections and goods distribution. When people can’t buy what they need, companies can’t maintain operations and employment, and no one pays as much in taxes. Families draw down savings and liquidate investments, which increases the financial markets shock. Companies can’t expand to address unmet demand because they don’t have the people or money to do so. The cycle feeds on itself, and the media can be very unhelpful.
      Look out for each other.

      None of us can cope with all this on our own, and those who think “I’m just going to look after myself,” are putting a greater burden on everyone else. The Italian finance minister said, “Nobody will lose their job because of the virus,” but what he really meant was “We will look after those in need.” If we don’t, it just gets worse and lasts longer for everyone.
      Learn from the past.

      We have recent experience with both disease and depression. The way we responded to diseases – AIDS, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika – tells us a huge amount about what works and what doesn’t (pro tip: HIV/AIDS showed that ignoring science is really, really stupid). The 2007-10 recession taught us about policy response to external shocks.
      • It is far better to do too much than too little; don’t let ideology get in the way.
      • Don’t try to create new tools now; use what you have.
      • Be creative where necessary.
      • Diversify; don’t be afraid of duplication or unintended “winners.”
      • Use the private sector as much as possible (they pay taxes).
      • Ensure the response is dynamic and persistent. Cash now beats tax breaks next year.

      Wash your hands.
      Trust me?
      I'm an economist!

      Comment


      • #4
        There's actually plenty on Germany and France in the SARS Comeback thread.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by DOR View Post
          This is way beyond the threads we have posted already, which focus on the US and to a lesser extent China and India.
          This thread wants to focus on economic matters around C19 ?

          Something we all have to consider once the pandemic subsides

          Traditionally a famine follows a pandemic but that won't happen.

          What has caused policy paralysis is the question of economy vs life.

          Some want a bit of both, others pick life and go the whole hog to smash the curve so as to get over it sooner and get the economy going.
          Last edited by Double Edge; 10 Apr 20,, 23:17.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by DOR View Post
            It is far better to do too much than too little; don’t let ideology get in the way.
            Contentious. The state has awesome powers.

            Where they want to take us and what the outcome could be should be examined.

            The COVID-19 Fraud – It’s Massive | Armstrong Economics | Apr 10 2020

            Senator Dr. Scott Jensen of Minnesota came out to expose how the AMA is encouraging American doctors to overcount coronavirus deaths across the US. He showed a 7-page document coaching him, as a doctor, to fill out death certificates with a COVID-19 diagnosis without a lab test to confirm the patient actually had the virus. Why? Because of the package for this relief, hospitals are paid more to attend this virus. NOBODY is dying of the flu any more – only COVID-19

            What the AMA is encouraging is FRAUD and to classify a death to COVID-19 without testing is actionable FRAUD.
            Another one

            Look at How Ridiculously Wrong All the Covid-19 Models Were | Target Liberty | Apr 09 2020

            This one takes aim at Fauci
            Last edited by Double Edge; 10 Apr 20,, 23:49.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
              Contentious. The state has awesome powers.

              Where they want to take us and what the outcome could be should be examined.

              The COVID-19 Fraud – It’s Massive | Armstrong Economics | Apr 10 2020



              Another one

              Look at How Ridiculously Wrong All the Covid-19 Models Were | Target Liberty | Apr 09 2020

              This one takes aim at Fauci

              Ever since The Arkansas Project (1992-), I’ve had a nasty habit of checking sources.
              Never heard of Armstrong Economics, but apparently other people have.

              The New Yorker, Oct 12, 2009
              The Secret Cycle
              Is the financier Martin Armstrong a con man, a crank, or a genius?
              https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...e-secret-cycle

              8.6 year rhythms … ohmygod 3,141 days = pi x 1,000!
              Pendulums! Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle! PYRAMID POWER ! !
              Then, October 19, 1987 (NYSE), December 29, 1989 (Nikkei), July 20, 1998 (S&P), and nine years in jail for fraud.

              As for Target Liberty, there’s nothing on its website about who’s behind it, except a rather lame attempt to link itself to the Economic Policy Journal (respected), which never mentions anything at all about Target Liberty.

              It does, however, trash science in general and Dr Anthony Fauci

              Pro Tip: Check your sources.
              Trust me?
              I'm an economist!

              Comment


              • #8
                Nice but is the point they make about how wrong the models were wrong or correct ?

                This isn't the first i hear bashing of Fauci btw.

                Another commentator i was listening to described him as a corrupt bureaucrat.

                In other words, he says what big pharma wants him to say.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                  Nice but is the point they make about how wrong the models were wrong or correct ?

                  This isn't the first i hear bashing of Fauci btw.

                  Another commentator i was listening to described him as a corrupt bureaucrat.

                  In other words, he says what big pharma wants him to say.
                  It doesn't even matter if the models are right or not. The source is unreliable, therefore a waste of time.
                  Just because the alt-right bashes Dr. Fauci doesn't mean they're right. The sources are unreliable, therefore a waste of time.
                  Trust me?
                  I'm an economist!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                    Nice but is the point they make about how wrong the models were wrong or correct ?

                    This isn't the first i hear bashing of Fauci btw.

                    Another commentator i was listening to described him as a corrupt bureaucrat.

                    In other words, he says what big pharma wants him to say.
                    Ai yai yai for crying out loud when a source is bullsh*t there is no way to rationalize it into another form although you do try hard. I'm with DOR and this is how a bullsh*t idea gets traction when others, such as yourself, try to give it credence. Those guys just love people like you who put a second layer of "normal" people over the first layer of "crazies" for cover.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by DOR View Post
                      It doesn't even matter if the models are right or not. The source is unreliable, therefore a waste of time.
                      Just because the alt-right bashes Dr. Fauci doesn't mean they're right. The sources are unreliable, therefore a waste of time.
                      Is the raw intel wrong? Intel comes from all sources. Even false flag intel has an element of truth in it. The question is can you disern the correct intel from the mis-information. Your outright dismissal of sources denies you the oppertunity to gleam some valuable intel.
                      Last edited by WABs_OOE; 11 Apr 20,, 22:37.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by DOR View Post
                        It doesn't even matter if the models are right or not. The source is unreliable, therefore a waste of time.
                        Click image for larger version

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                        Is that graphic false ? i don't think it is. But i don't know where it came from.

                        That graphic is what got my attention.

                        Originally posted by DOR View Post
                        Just because the alt-right bashes Dr. Fauci doesn't mean they're right. The sources are unreliable, therefore a waste of time.
                        That second commentator who bashed Fauci isn't alt right, he has a difference of opinion

                        Note that he isn't a medical doctor but one with a PhD in Biological engineering from MIT. He's an engineer.

                        Engineers have to solve problems if they expect to keep their clients.

                        He made some interesting comments in this talk.

                        The origins of western medicine come from the battlefield. Getting soldiers back, this is why the steroids, anti-biotics and surgery. In contrast to more traditional medical practices from India or even China. Which tend to be more biological engineering. Western medicine is good for chronic cases, 20% of the problem we may face.

                        He mentioned that the max compensation one can expect from harm caused by vaccines is around $250k in the US. And the adjudicating judge isn't from the judiciary but the executive. They can't be sued for much if things go wrong unlike with drugs where the liability costs are much higher.

                        He's upset he lost a friend due to drugs prescribed, he thinks those drugs killed his friend. How common is that sentiment.

                        So this is why this whole vaccine idea is being pushed big time by the likes of Gates & the Clinton Global foundation. He wants Gates kept out of India. He thinks they're using India and other countries as guinea pigs to do clinical trials of vaccines at low cost and risk. I have mixed thoughts on that. Developing vaccines isn't cheap and a lengthy process. If one closes the doors to such trials and we live with whatever conditions we face for perpetuity. So this is the part of his thinking process i have trouble accepting.

                        Gates saying the only way society can return to where it was post C19 is vaccines. That is the only way when you will feel safe.

                        Really ?
                        Attached Files
                        Last edited by Double Edge; 12 Apr 20,, 02:23.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
                          Ai yai yai for crying out loud when a source is bullsh*t there is no way to rationalize it into another form although you do try hard. I'm with DOR and this is how a bullsh*t idea gets traction when others, such as yourself, try to give it credence. Those guys just love people like you who put a second layer of "normal" people over the first layer of "crazies" for cover.
                          Remind of that underlined bit if you ever catch me pushing conspiracy wingnut stuff here.

                          Going back to the sources, what people are calling out here is the same thing they did when this global warming nonsense came out.

                          Big scare, requiring states to take measures to mitigate with big costs. WHy ?

                          Fair to say these people are calling out political rhetoric from the left dressed up as science being mass fed to every one by the establishment using the media.

                          All these models they have, the projections. etc etc.

                          Policy gets made on the basis of these models by people from big name unis that has a REAL bearing on all of our lives.

                          What good were these models in predicting the 2008 financial crisis ? said crisis that created this class of deplorables that voted Trump into office. That have a healthy scepticism of people in white coats saying do this and that or we will all die.

                          btw, until 2015, i was a keen reader of the global warming thread, so i'm quite influenced by what i learnt there. Robust questioning of the conventional narrative. That thread pretty much defines what this place is about for me in terms of the thinking and debating style. Good stuff. note how they kept at it for weeks and months, nay, years. You can't get that on social media where people want conclusions and wrap ups in a day or two or they lose interest. Only possible on forums.

                          Senator Dr. Scott Jensen of Minnesota came out to expose how the AMA is encouraging American doctors to overcount coronavirus deaths across the US. He showed a 7-page document coaching him, as a doctor, to fill out death certificates with a COVID-19 diagnosis without a lab test to confirm the patient actually had the virus. Why? Because of the package for this relief, hospitals are paid more to attend this virus. NOBODY is dying of the flu any more – only COVID-19

                          The numbers will then be used to justify keeping the money flowing to misrepresent this as an epidemic. This fraud will then come back to justify keeping the economy locked down longer and the AMA is now contributing to the destruction of everyone’s livelihood, pension, and this exposes the corruption that always emerges with government programs.
                          People outright calling out corruption in the making and your stance is to brush it aside. Why ?

                          Isn't there even a grain of plausibility in there.

                          When $20 tr gets wiped off the stock market what does that do to people's pensions. Can they afford to retire at all or do they have to continue working until they drop.

                          Every kid born in the US since the last decade has around $80k of public debt hanging over them.

                          Some American dream this is.
                          Last edited by Double Edge; 12 Apr 20,, 02:34.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by DOR View Post
                            Ever since The Arkansas Project (1992-), I’ve had a nasty habit of checking sources.
                            This is why i always try to link to whatever i say here so more eyes can take those sources apart

                            Originally posted by DOR View Post
                            Never heard of Armstrong Economics, but apparently other people have.

                            The New Yorker, Oct 12, 2009
                            The Secret Cycle
                            Is the financier Martin Armstrong a con man, a crank, or a genius?
                            https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...e-secret-cycle

                            8.6 year rhythms … ohmygod 3,141 days = pi x 1,000!
                            Pendulums! Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle! PYRAMID POWER ! !
                            Then, October 19, 1987 (NYSE), December 29, 1989 (Nikkei), July 20, 1998 (S&P), and nine years in jail for fraud.
                            There's people who look at your list of 24 essays and spot Krugman who is a statist and wonder how many others in that list also fall into the statists category.

                            Of course these people are going to recommend state programs, right.

                            State intervention here and there. There's times they have a point.

                            Massive spending here and there.

                            Keynes is coming back into fashion these days so these people have the upper hand.

                            No other than Bannon said that.

                            Originally posted by DOR View Post
                            As for Target Liberty, there’s nothing on its website about who’s behind it, except a rather lame attempt to link itself to the Economic Policy Journal (respected), which never mentions anything at all about Target Liberty.

                            It does, however, trash science in general and Dr Anthony Fauci

                            Pro Tip: Check your sources.
                            Am going on what was said. Does that pass the smell test, or is it saying what we are told smells fishy

                            Look, many times i'm going on incomplete info. So i post it and others take a look at it, some times i'm able to call it

                            I'd say the record is 50% or 1 in 2 of what i come across does have some truth behind it and my sense is this one qualifies.

                            The website might not be pretty but the idea is plausible. In need of more digging.

                            All you've done is brush it aside by judging by the cover. Not the first time you've done that i might add.

                            I ran with the CCP figures and have something to say about them. Where there are questions, where its plausible.

                            Result is i'm further along on that then you are o wise one : P

                            Coming back to where i began..I consider the below advice

                            It is far better to do too much than too little; don’t let ideology get in the way.
                            Dangerous!

                            I fully expect to get attacked for repeating it.
                            Last edited by Double Edge; 12 Apr 20,, 02:11.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              How about we agree to STOP going on incomplete info?
                              How about we agree to STOP posting things that have no reliable sources?
                              How about we agree that comparing Paul Krugman with Steve Bannon is INSANE?
                              Trust me?
                              I'm an economist!

                              Comment

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