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  • tantalus
    replied
    Originally posted by kato View Post
    There's a rural German county on the border with Austria that has similar incidence rates as the Czech Republic or Spain (252 cases/100,000 citizens in last 7 rolling days).

    They're locking down for two weeks starting tuesday from 2 pm (no movement outside own residence other than for work, doctor's visits or necessary shopping, no travel across the county's borders other than for work, mask requirement 6 am to 11 pm outside, all schools and leisure activities closed down, no alcohol sales 11 pm to 6 am, meetings in private residences limited to 5 people or own household).
    Right approach. Its very difficullt at border regions with open travel. If the rules are different people start heading for the more lenient side and eventually the virus occupies both.

    The only thing I would say is its a mistake to leave people to travel between households once the intention is to go through a suppression period not management. The virus is just getting into the private home as people have so much more free time they start jumping through households more to occupy themselves and keep social life going and thre are zero protections in place, its a completely uncontrolled environemnt. In the end its better to protect the economy than private social interactions thats the hard truth and getting in a few weeks earlier with a household ban could make a significant difference.

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  • kato
    replied
    Originally posted by tantalus View Post
    Any country or region (and its populace) that has the luxury of being a few of weeks behind should take note of the situation and adapt behaviour and policy quickly. Many places still have the time to deliver a more desirable outcome socially and economically if they can pivot.
    There's a rural German county on the border with Austria that has similar incidence rates as the Czech Republic or Spain (252 cases/100,000 citizens in last 7 rolling days).

    They're locking down for two weeks starting tuesday from 2 pm (no movement outside own residence other than for work, doctor's visits or necessary shopping, no travel across the county's borders other than for work, mask requirement 6 am to 11 pm outside, all schools and leisure activities closed down, no alcohol sales 11 pm to 6 am, meetings in private residences limited to 5 people or own household).

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  • tantalus
    replied
    Right now Belgium has one of the biggest problems reporting 10,000 cases plus a over last couple of days for a country of 11 million. Tests positivity rate near 15%. The rate of growth is also very fast which indicates a considerable amount of damage has a already been inflicted but wont materalise until the next 2 weeks pass.

    Ireland is expected to announce a lockdown for 4 to 6 weeks that will restrict movement to 5km and Wales have announced a circuit breaker for 2 weeks.

    Irelands numbers are better than many other western nations but due to a weak health system and a more aggressive suppression approach they are pushing the lockdown button earlier than many of its neighbours. The northern part of the Island under the jurisdiction of Westminster and Boris Jonhson has acted as a real case study to compare 2 different approaches over the summer. The north has seen rates 2 to 4 times higher than the republic and that is with cases spilling across the open border south infecting the republic and lifting their numbers.

    Any country or region (and its populace) that has the luxury of being a few of weeks behind should take note of the situation and adapt behaviour and policy quickly. Many places still have the time to deliver a more desirable outcome socially and economically if they can pivot.
    Last edited by tantalus; 19 Oct 20,, 21:33.

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  • tantalus
    replied


    I think a major problem for the euro countries that have failed to prevent this surge is the they are in part a victim of their own success. By getting the numbers so low the population became more relaxed than the americans and the snap back has been more rapid as a result.

    In the states people have been constantly weary which has kept compliane more steady. Obviously far more died and suffered in the usa over the summer months. Also as the pandemic became politicised in the states democrats possibly became even more focused on behaving respnsibly. Ironically this has helped limit the extent of the damage caused by Trumps incompetence. and slowed the rise in the autumn compared to many western europe nations.

    I don't have anything quantitative to back this up, I am just speculating and it doesnt predict anything moving forward. It seems likely that most euro nations will be aggressive in stopping the second wave. It seem inevitable lthat the USA will catch up and its not clear what will be done to control it or how much those efforts will vary by states. Its easier to predict what the euro nations will do.

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  • tantalus
    replied
    Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
    UK clocking up 17,000 yesterday. Spikes in cases all over Western Europe, some in nations that were hit hard in the first wave, some in nations that avoided the worst the first time around.
    The R number has been estimated by SAGE at between 1.3 and 1.5 and they consider the number accurate. This means trouble as the epidemic is still growing with speed. Boris has taken some measures in the last few days which will take time to show effect. I doubt the new measures can get it to 1, so with the basline already so high, it only being October, and the R comfprtably exceeding 1, much more will have to be done imo.

    It was revealed that SAGE recommended a "circuit breaker", which is really just the new and updated version of a lockdown taken from what we learnt from the first wave back on September 21st. Hindsight suggests the local approach system was fatally flawed or poorly designed. It needed to be far more aggressive and basically needed to take into account for a certain level of non-compliance which it failed to do. As Kato says, (problem number 3) the strategies and models didnt adequately cover for non complance by younger cohorts,

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  • Bigfella
    replied
    UK clocking up 17,000 yesterday. Spikes in cases all over Western Europe, some in nations that were hit hard in the first wave, some in nations that avoided the worst the first time around.

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  • tantalus
    replied
    France has posted 25 thousand cases plus the last 2 days and a positivty rate nearing 13% so clearly they have a really big problem that is moving quickly.

    If anybody knows a website that collates postivity rates regularly please link it. I havent come across one and its a very handy metric to track.

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  • DOR
    replied
    Imports: A Key Sign of Economic Well-Being

    A competitive economy can hold its own in world, exporting what it does better – or more of – to other markets. A healthy economy, on the other hand, has the ability (financial capacity, domestic demand) to import what it needs or wants from outside. Hence, tracking imports may tell us something useful about economic health in times of crisis.

    The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) tracks monthly trade for 46 economies, including nine that are not members of the OECD. The nine are Argentina, Brazil, China, Costa Rica, India, Indonesia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa.

    Among the 46, all are experiencing double-digit declines in imports in year-to-date 2020, with the notable exceptions of Turkey (-1.2%), China (-2.6%), Denmark (-5.5%), Ireland (-5%), Russia (-7.9%), Korea (-9.1%), Switzerland (-9.4%), Australia (-9.6%), Slovenia (-9.9%), and Norway (-9.9%).

    The remaining 36 range from -10% (Hungary) to -31.2% (India), and have a weighted average of -13.3%.




    oecd.org







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  • tantalus
    replied
    Originally posted by kato View Post
    Eh, more like if you upscale that to actual cases then at the third degree you're already covering 90% of the population. 90% of the population knows someone who knows someone who knows someone who's already tested positive. That also shows the exercise in futility right there.

    No one in Europe traces beyond first degree. You're a first-degree contact, you're ordered into quarantine. If you develop symptoms, that's when they waste a test on you, and if it's positive, that's when they go for the next degree.
    Absolutely I was being illustrative but I can see that i was unnecessarily confusing and I used a very silly way to detail it. I didnt really mean trace 5 orders of contacts. I was just trying to show how exponential numbers work and how a small difference multiplies out vastly.

    As it goes from 3 cases to 9 cases to 18 cases to 50 cases to 100 cases a day and how a small increase in the number of first degree contacts from 3 to 6 to 9 close contacts dramtically increases the contact tracing team workload.

    But we should have gone beyond the first contacts in certain situations and when the numbers were very low (not as extreme as I suggested above) and also further back in time for each individual case of infection to the source of said infection. Even then it would have taken vast resources. The south koreans contact traced 45000 in May due to a small outbreak linked to seuol nightclubs. If you are quick and resource it intensely you can trace back to origin and then back up capturing other chains that branched out from that event, over running impending asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases before they become infectious as well as accurately discovering and detailing sources of spread for future management. This becomes a self fulfilling loop that with other tools can prove effective.

    Europe considered contact tracing strategically, operationally, and tactically different from south korea. We went after the low hanging fruit, they went after the whole tree. Whats not clear to me is why we didnt or couldnt follow the south korean approach. Was it a strategic failure to understand the approach's overall merit and the tactical advantages it would give authorities? Or was it not possible to execute the strategy on an operational level on short notice at the scale required? The south koreans learnt lessons from the second mers outbreak a few years back and had plans in place for this very moment, perhaps we couldnt follow suit in 12 weeks.
    Last edited by tantalus; 15 Oct 20,, 19:17.

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  • DOR
    replied
    The IMF Reconsiders
    World Economic Outlook October 2020 imf.org


    In a nutshell, the world economy in Q-2 wasn't quite as ugly as yo mama.



    The IMF's World Economic Outlook now envisages a 0.8% less awful 2020, but at the expense of some slowing next year. The global economy is now expected to contract 4.4% in real terms this year, and then grow by 5.2% in 2021.

    The big adjustments, to both years and in both directions are for the United States (-4.3%, then +3.1% in 2021), France (-9.8% and +6%), and Italy (-10.6%, +5.2%). Among the largest emerging economies, China gains 0.9%, to +1.9% this year – it's worst performance in many decades – while India is expected to be 5.8 percentage points worse off, at -10.3%. Both rise above 8% next year.

    Excerpts--
    “The downturn triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic has been very different from past recessions. In previous downturns, service-oriented sectors have tended to suffer smaller growth declines than manufacturing. In the current crisis, the public health response needed to slow transmission, together with behavioral changes, has meant that service sectors reliant on face-to-face interactions—particularly wholesale and retail trade, hospitality, and arts and entertainment—have seen larger contractions than manufacturing (Figure 1.6). The scale of disruption indicates that, without a vaccine and effective therapies to combat the virus, such sectors face a particularly difficult path back to any semblance of normalcy.”
    “The currencies of commodity exporters among advanced economies strengthened as commodity prices firmed. Most emerging market currencies recovered between April and June, after the severe pressures during the market turmoil in March. Since then the Chinese renminbi has strengthened and the currencies of other Asian emerging market economies have generally remained stable in real effective terms. In contrast, the Russian ruble depreciated on geopolitical factors and the currencies of countries severely affected by the pandemic or with a vulnerable external or fiscal position (such as Argentina, Brazil, and Turkey) have also weakened.”
    “Major central banks are assumed to maintain their current settings throughout the forecast horizon to the end of 2025. The baseline forecast is consistent with financial conditions remaining broadly at current levels.”
    “Global trade is expected to contract by over 10 percent this year—a pace similar to during the global financial crisis in 2009, despite the contraction in activity being much more pronounced this year.”



    In Chapter 2, there's a deep analysis of the cost and benefits of economic lock-downs:
    “The observation that lockdowns can reduce infections but involve short-term economic costs is often used to argue that lockdowns involve a trade-off between saving lives and protecting livelihoods. This narrative should be reconsidered in light of the earlier findings showing that rising infections can also have severe detrimental effects on economic activity. By bringing infections under control, lockdowns may thus pave the way to a faster economic recovery as people feel more comfortable about resuming normal activities. In other words, the short-term economic costs of lockdowns could be compensated through higher future economic activity, possibly even leading to positive net effects on the economy. This remains a crucial area for future research as more data become available.”






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  • kato
    replied
    Originally posted by tantalus View Post
    If 3 people have 6 contacts have 6 contacts have 6 conacts have 6 contacts thats 3888 people to trace.
    Eh, more like if you upscale that to actual cases then at the third degree you're already covering 90% of the population. 90% of the population knows someone who knows someone who knows someone who's already tested positive. That also shows the exercise in futility right there.

    No one in Europe traces beyond first degree. You're a first-degree contact, you're ordered into quarantine. If you develop symptoms, that's when they waste a test on you, and if it's positive, that's when they go for the next degree.

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  • tantalus
    replied
    Ya the framing early in the spring really hurt us permanently on that front.

    Originally posted by kato View Post


    This is the case in other European countries too. In Belgium there's a university where 2% of students are infected.


    We're actually pushing massive ressource numbers into this by now. Current target number is about 22,000 people working just in contact tracing and related tasks at local health agencies (ten times the normal numbers for disease control), assisted by 15,000 soldiers of "Task Force Corona". That includes entirely new office buildings for them too in many places.
    Some east asian countries would define massive by not what appears a big number but what actually works. Perhaps the germans have done better in this regard but I dont think any euro naton matches the south koreans who would test your dog cat and goldfish if you neigbour down the road sneezed.

    The key is they apply that approach when cases are very low, thats gone in europe.

    If 3 people have 3 contacts have 3 contacts have 3 conacts have 3 contacts thats 243 people to trace.

    If 3 people have 6 contacts have 6 contacts have 6 conacts have 6 contacts thats 3888 people to trace.

    If 3 people have 9 contacts have 9 contacts have 9 conacts have 9 contacts thats 19683 people to trace.

    If infections scale to 9
    If 9 people have 9 contacts have 9 contacts have 9 conacts have 9 contacts thats 59049 people to trace

    and to 18 (with 14 day doubling time)
    If 18 people have 9 contacts have 9 contacts have 9 conacts have 9 contacts thats 118098 people to trace


    As individual peoples contact list grew through the summer along with the virus infection numbers the tracing approach has a diminishing effect and zero chance of applying a menaingful downard pressure on the epidemic.

    This thing scales beyond western deployed resources very quickly. You have a small window to trace efficiently and then you have to keep it there to continue to be effective. Europe had a chance and the states never even got there.
    Last edited by tantalus; 15 Oct 20,, 09:18.

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  • kato
    replied
    Originally posted by tantalus View Post
    We overestimated people and underestimated the full extent of pandemic fatigue. (problem 2)
    Problem 3 is that people for some reason thought (or think) that younger adults "won't get it".

    By now in Germany the highest incidence rate of people tested positive within their age group - for all 334,000 cases - is among 15-34 year olds (at about 560-570 per 100,000), higher than for any other age group.

    This is the case in other European countries too. In Belgium there's a university where 2% of students are infected.

    Originally posted by tantalus View Post
    as the cases scale quickly beyond contact tracing as resourced in the west
    We're actually pushing massive ressource numbers into this by now. Current target number is about 22,000 people working just in contact tracing and related tasks at local health agencies (ten times the normal numbers for disease control), assisted by 15,000 soldiers of "Task Force Corona". That includes entirely new office buildings for them too in many places.
    Last edited by kato; 14 Oct 20,, 23:57.

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  • tantalus
    replied
    Pretty sensible for countries like Germany to strike quickly and not end up like other nations like the czech republic who did extremely well first time round. Easier sell to the populace as they see their neighbours fate.

    Safe to say it hasnt gone well in europe as per mid summer expectations.

    I think the virus and aerosol spread was underestimated. (problem 1)

    We overestimated people and underestimated the full extent of pandemic fatigue. (problem 2)

    And we overestimated test and trace Plus countries simply didnt get effective measures in place earlier enough on a regional level. Lack of political will as you have to look like you are over reacting to stop the initial climb, causing immense economic and social damage to keep levels low and test and trace effective, to keep r below 1 for sustained periods, lack of scientific literacy and not accounting for problems 1 and 2 in proportionate measure all hurt europe.

    Plus problem 3 becomes aggravated by probelms 1 and 2 as the cases scale quickly beyond contact tracing as resourced in the west, no south korea. Its a combination, and all about the timely reaction, all the pieces have not aligned and once certain parts of the puzzle shapeshifted we couldnt tip the scales fast enough and in the right way.

    Some euro countires have fared well but as of today Netherlands and czech republic have some version of a lockdown in place. Ireland also have very restrictive measures, as do parts of the UK. Spain and france have very restrictive measures in certain regions and there seem to be large virus outbreaks in various eastern states so its a bit of a mess given its only early october.
    Last edited by tantalus; 14 Oct 20,, 22:42.

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  • kato
    replied

    Germany is switching to mandatory mask wearing in "crowded" public places in any place that exceeds (rolling) 35 new infections per 100,000 citizens within last 7 days. The city i live in - which does exceed that, at 36.2 as of today - has already announced that regulation will affect at least one full district of town with about 12,000 residents entirely starting Friday.

    In addition in places exceeding 50 new infections / 100,000 any gatherings in private will be restricted to maximum 10 people from maximum 2 households again, similar to the first wave. They've already reserved that if the infection rate in a place stays that high more than 10 days this will be further restricted to gatherings of 5 people from 2 households.

    France has introduced full nightly curfews in all larger cities in the street effective today, locking residents of these cities down after 11 pm.
    Last edited by kato; 14 Oct 20,, 20:23.

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