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  • Covid is now truly global: 36 Chileans at a military base on Antarctica - 26 military and 10 civilians - have tested positive.

    The virus was likely transported there last week by amphibious ship Sargento Aldea bringing in maintenance personnel and supplies. The ship itself quarantined after it had 3 cases onboard after the visit. All infected have been evacuated to Patagonia.

    The Chilean antarctic territory - with Chilean, Russian, Uruguayan, Korean and Chinese bases and a population of somewhere around 150 in summer - was previously locked down and reduced to skeleton crews with no contact to each other for half a year. The resupply run and bringing in contractors for maintenance was necessary due to this situation. The territory previously dodged the bullet in April, when Australian cruise ship Greg Mortimer with a massive outbreak onboard was turned back and not allowed entry.

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    • Germany's launch of its vaccination campaign so far:
      • One state started a day earlier than agreed upon.
      • Vaccines in some districts not usable (by state decision, not the company) due to breaking cooling chain.
      • A group of eight medical personnel received five times the normal dosis because no one read the instructions that one vial contains five doses (now all eight in hospital with symptoms).
      • Appointments for vaccination no longer bookable in most states since all vaccine for the next couple weeks is already booked.
      • Willingness to get vaccinated immediately is 32% in the population (a further 33% want to wait for what happens to those early adopters). 57% fear side effects. Among medical/care personnel the rate of willingness is particularly low.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by kato View Post
        [*]Willingness to get vaccinated immediately is 32% in the population (a further 33% want to wait for what happens to those early adopters). 57% fear side effects. Among medical/care personnel the rate of willingness is particularly low.[/LIST]
        Those numbers are not inspiring...

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        • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post

          Those numbers are not inspiring...
          Fact

          Kato,
          Is thas a consisent result from German surveys? And have you noticed a trend in one direction or the other?

          I would expect the numbers willing to take it will increase with time as more people are successfully vaccinated. Logically you would expect this. But how fast and from how low a base is very important.

          If the r number is higher with the new strain and success rates are around 90-95% for the vaccine we may need as much as 80-90% of the population vaccinated to crush it. I havent seen anyone guess or any info on attempts to model rough estimates of the number of vaccinated required to de risk hospital capacity. very complex as we will obviously vaccinate health workers first increasing our hospital capacity while focusing also on the vulnerable disportionately impacting on hospital admissions. I have seen May-June mentioned as a target for european countires to remove the chance of overrun hospitals.

          An interesting complexity is if you remove the threat of overrun hospitals the population will balloon their social contacts and you will see a spike in admission of people in 30-55 years old. At this point of the pandemic you may see alot of hospital pressure, suffering andf long covid without the deaths persist into the early summer, Its for these unseen consequences and complexity why you need to do modelling...

          Another thing that isnt clear as what it means to be in the 5% for the pfizer vaccine, are they completely vulnerable or along a sliding scale? Can they pass on the infection?

          Is there any inclination as to when we can get hard data from the british and south africans on lab studies of the new strains?

          Comment


          • Originally posted by tantalus View Post
            Is thas a consisent result from German surveys? And have you noticed a trend in one direction or the other?
            It's pretty consistent as numbers in surveys.

            In very early stages of the vaccination campaign now (at care homes and such) the percentage of care personnel who sign up to get vaccinated is in line with the numbers from surveys as well, i.e. well below those 32%.


            Originally posted by tantalus View Post
            Another thing that isnt clear as what it means to be in the 5% for the pfizer vaccine, are they completely vulnerable or along a sliding scale? Can they pass on the infection?
            It is to my knowledge so far not proven that any of the vaccines prevent transmission, i.e. activate an immunoresponse without an infection. See also this blog article from John Hopkins U&M.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by kato View Post
              It's pretty consistent as numbers in surveys.

              In very early stages of the vaccination campaign now (at care homes and such) the percentage of care personnel who sign up to get vaccinated is in line with the numbers from surveys as well, i.e. well below those 32%.
              Well thats pretty pathetic isnt it...if you happen to come across numbers on uptake in those settings as the months progress please post them up. I would be interested to see them.

              Originally posted by kato View Post

              It is to my knowledge so far not proven that any of the vaccines prevent transmission, i.e. activate an immunoresponse without an infection. See also this blog article from John Hopkins U&M.
              Its a vital we have an estimate on this. Iam assuming modellers have some inclination as to the range of possibilities although I understand coronaviruses are more poorly understood than flu viruses. This is a very hard thing to prove in a rush. Hence the vaccine trials just focus on syptomatic disease. But just because we cant prove it doesnt mean its not there. Logically there should be a meaningful effect on transmission. But as always the extent matters. I believe moderna has some proxy data from nasal swabs that are encouraging.

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              • Originally posted by tantalus View Post
                Well thats pretty pathetic isnt it...if you happen to come across numbers on uptake in those settings as the months progress please post them up. I would be interested to see them.
                • In several cities within the Ruhr mega-city the rate among personnel in care homes who were offered vaccination was between 45 and 50 percent. Among people living in these care homes it was around 95% (which is a number i've seen mirrored in other places). In Essen city in order to not throw away vaccines due to low acceptance among care personnel they used the spare doses on firefighters. Local politicians blame care personnel being unwilling to come in for central vaccination dates on their days off.
                • In Berlin they are closing the central vaccination center in Treptow for the next four days. The center has a capacity of 5,000 vaccinations per day and only applied 228 doses on sunday. On monday instead of care personnel as planned they instead vaccinated the voluntary Red Cross (and other similar organizations') personnel working at the center. The reason here is that in order to go to their vaccination appointment people would need to take time off work - which care homes due to lack of personnel do not allow in particular in the time immediately after christmas.

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                • Police in the Ille-et-Vilaine prefecture in France crashed an illegal rave party for New Years with up to 2,500 attending yesterday with 150 officers deployed.

                  Click image for larger version  Name:	police.jpg Views:	0 Size:	64.9 KB ID:	1570290

                  1200 citations (135 Euro fines) were handed out for Covid lockdown violations, 5 people arrested for that, "several hundred" for drugs, some apparently also for resisting arrest. Some officers were wounded, four police cars damaged, one set on fire - was pretty low mostly because police was sitting back in a cordon and only blocking roads leading away from the site.

                  A few dozen attendants apparently managed to slip through the police cordon, they're still looking for them. Local prefecture set up a test center and shipped in a few thousand masks and desinfectant sets.

                  Right-wingers in France are criticizing the whole action, mostly on the basis that in their opinion police should have preemptively searched social media for possible hints and just arrested anyone before they could assemble.

                  There were two similar smaller parties (300 and 120 people) dissolved in other French towns and cities, as well as one considered notable enough to be in the press with a few dozen in a bunker in Germany.

                  ---

                  Overall New Years Eve, due to the lockdowns (and fireworks sales/use bans), was pretty sedate in both Germany and France. Only two dead in accidents with pyrotechnics across both countries this year - a French guy who was decapitated by a misfiring mortar and a German guy with some homebuilt pipe bomb; a third guy in Germany survived playing with the wrong chemicals, although he's now missing some body parts. Only a few hundred people were injured this year, with a low three-digit number requiring surgery (mostly in Germany, in France it was in the dozens).

                  In France about 45,000 people out on the street were checked by police, with only about 7,200 violating the curfew. 600 of them spent the night in jail. Haven't really seen numbers for Germany (and likely won't due to the federated structure), but overall from a couple regional police press releases they seem to be on about the same level. Only a few dozen small riots (20-50 people with some molotov cocktails, flare guns and similar) and a few anti-lockdown political rallies had to be dissolved. 12 military vehicles were set on fire at a car workshop in East Germany by left-wingers, destroying 7 of them.
                  Last edited by kato; 02 Jan 21,, 14:45.

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                  • The current Hard Lockdown in Germany is being extended to January 31st - would have expired next sunday - and further reinforced. Schools remain closed.

                    Plan is to restrict movement without due cause to 15 km around residence in any district with an incidence rate above 200. In addition contact restrictions in private are further tightened to maximum one person outside your own household (currently five people from two households may assemble in private).

                    In general incidence rates have been falling in Germany due to lack of testing over christmas. The highest incidence rate on district level is in Vogtland district in Saxony right now. They're at 800.

                    As a loosening of the lockdown my state allows pre-order-and-pick-up retail sales ("Click&Collect") from monday again. This was outlawed in the weeks leading up to christmas to prevent queues at shops offering such.

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                    • Originally posted by CNBC

                      South African Covid variant appears to ‘obviate’ antibody drugs, Dr. Scott Gottlieb says

                      by Emily DeCiccio
                      published 05 January 2021
                      updated 06 January 2021
                      • “The South Africa variant is very concerning right now because it does appear that it may obviate some of our medical countermeasures, particularly the antibody drugs,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb said.
                      • The South African variant is also known as 501.V2, and in mid-December officials reported that 501.V2 had been largely replacing other strains of the coronavirus as early as November.
                      • More than 17 million Covid doses have been distributed to states, but only 4.8 million Americans have received their first shot according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
                      Dr. Scott Gottlieb warned that vaccinating Americans against Covid is more critical than ever, especially as the new South Africa variant appears to inhibit antibody drugs.

                      "The South Africa variant is very concerning right now because it does appear that it may obviate some of our medical countermeasures, particularly the antibody drugs," said the former FDA chief in the Trump administration in an interview on CNBC's "The News with Shepard Smith" on Tuesday evening. "Right now that strain does appear to be prevalent in South America and Brazil, the two parts of the world, right now, that are in their summer, but also experiencing a very dense epidemic, and that's concerning.

                      The South African variant is also known as 501.V2, and in mid-December officials reported that 501.V2 had been largely replacing other strains of the coronavirus as early as November. South Africa has already sustained the more than 1.1 million COVID-19 cases and more than 30,000 deaths, the most on the African continent.

                      Gottlieb cited experimental evidence from Bloom Lab, and explained 501.V2 does appear to partially escape prior immunity. It means that some of the antibodies people produce when they get infected with Covid, as well as the antibody drugs, may not be quite as effective.

                      "The new variant has mutated a part of the spike protein that our antibodies bind to, to try to clear the virus itself, so this is concerning," Gottlieb said. "Now, the vaccine can become a backstop against these variants really getting more of a foothold here in the United States, but we need to quicken the pace of vaccination."

                      Operation Warp Speed's director of supply production and distribution Ret. Lt. Gen. Paul Ostrowski told host Shepard Smith on Dec. 3 that everyone who wants a vaccine will be able to get one by June. Projections are currently falling short, however. More than 17 million Covid doses have been distributed to states, but only 4.8 million Americans have received their first shot according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

                      Gottlieb suggested working through prioritized categories of people more quickly, expanding the number of vaccination sites, and stockpiling a smaller percentage of dosages in order to vaccinate more Americans.

                      "It really is a race against time trying to get more vaccine into people's arms before these new variants become more prevalent here in the United States," said Gottlieb.

                      Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC contributor and is a member of the boards of Pfizer, genetic testing start-up Tempus and biotech company Illumina. Pfizer has a manufacturing agreement with Gilead for remdesivir. Gottlieb also serves as co-chair of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings′ and Royal Caribbean's "Healthy Sail Panel."

                      .
                      Originally posted by BioRxiv

                      Comprehensive mapping of mutations to the SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain that affect recognition by polyclonal human serum antibodies

                      https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...12.31.425021v1

                      Abstract
                      The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 could impair recognition of the virus by human antibody-mediated immunity. To facilitate prospective surveillance for such evolution, we map how convalescent serum antibodies are impacted by all mutations to the spike's receptor-binding domain (RBD), the main target of serum neutralizing activity. Binding by polyclonal serum antibodies is affected by mutations in three main epitopes in the RBD, but there is substantial variation in the impact of mutations both among individuals and within the same individual over time. Despite this inter- and intra-person heterogeneity, the mutations that most reduce antibody binding usually occur at just a few sites in the RBD's receptor binding motif. The most important site is E484, where neutralization by some sera is reduced >10-fold by several mutations, including one in emerging viral lineages in South Africa and Brazil. Going forward, these serum escape maps can inform surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 evolution.

                      Competing Interest Statement
                      H.Y.C. is a consultant for Merck and Pfizer and receives research funds from Cepheid, Ellume, Genentech, and Sanofi-Pasteur. The other authors declare no competing interests.

                      .

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                      • This south african strain is a real concern. Has anybody seen a percentage increase of transmission estimate for the strain? The british strain is considered around 50%.

                        I am also curious what effect the antibody drugs had been having on mortality rates.

                        Comment



                        • https://apnews.com/article/internati...b888b950c0a402

                          Bodies pile up at crematorium in Germany’s virus hot spot

                          By FRANK JORDANSyesterday






                          1 of 12
                          Caskets labelled with the word 'Covid' are stacked with others coffins in the memorial hall of the crematorium in Meissen, Germany, Monday, Jan. 11, 2021. The crematorium would typically have 70 to 100 caskets on site at this time of year, now it has 300 bodies waiting to be cremated and more are brought to the crematorium every day. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)



                          MEISSEN, Germany (AP) — The caskets are stacked three high in the Meissen crematorium’s somber memorial hall, piled up in empty offices and stored in hallways. Many are sealed with plastic wrapping, others are labeled “infection risk,” “urgent” or simply “COVID.”
                          A surge of coronavirus deaths in this corner of eastern Germany has boosted business for crematorium manager Joerg Schaldach and his staff, but nobody is celebrating.
                          “The situation is a little bit tense for us at the moment,” Schaldach said as another undertaker’s van pulled up outside.
                          The crematorium would typically have 70 to 100 caskets on site at this time of year, when the flu season takes its toll on the elderly.

                          “It’s normal for more people to die in winter than in summer,” said Schaldach. “That’s always been the case.”
                          Now he has 300 bodies waiting to be cremated and each day dozens more are delivered to the modernist building on a hill overlooking Meissen, an ancient town better known for its delicate porcelain and impressive Gothic castle.
                          On Monday, Meissen county once again took the unwanted lead in Germany’s COVID-19 tables, with an infection rate three times the national average. The state of Saxony, where Meissen is located, includes six of the 10 worst-hit counties in Germany.

                          Schaldach says the crematorium is doing its best to keep up with demand, firing up the twin furnaces every 45 minutes and managing 60 cremations a day.

                          “The ashes still end up in the right urn,” he said.

                          But whereas staff would normally try to ensure the deceased look good for relatives to bid their final farewells, infection rules now mean the caskets of COVID victims have to remain shut throughout, making the entire process even harder for those involved.

                          “It’s our business, we’ve seen death many, many times,” said Schaldach. “The problem we see is that the grieving relatives need our help. And at the moment, there’s a greater need for words of consolation because they’ve given their deceased loved one to the ambulance and then they never see them again.”

                          Some have linked Saxony’s high infection rate to wider anti-government sentiment in a state where over a quarter voted for the far-right Alternative for Germany party at the last national election. Its lawmakers have objected to the need to wear masks, limits on people gathering and the closure of stores. A few have even denied the existence of a pandemic outright.

                          Other commentators have noted the state’s large number of elderly and its reliance on nursing home workers from the neighboring Czech Republic, where COVID-19 infections are even higher.

                          Officials in Meissen, including the head of the county administration, the local doctors association and the lawmaker representing the region in parliament, an ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel, all declined to be interviewed about the situation.

                          Saxony’s governor, Michael Kretschmer, acknowledged in a recent interview with daily Freie Presse that he had underestimated the impact of the pandemic in his state and paid too much attention to those calling for businesses and schools to remain open.

                          A video showing Kretschmer talking to anti-lockdown protesters outside his home Sunday ends with him walking away after one person dons a mask made to look like the German Imperial War Flag, a symbol favored by far-right extremists.

                          Schaldach, the crematorium manager, says most people in Saxony accept the rules. But he, too, has read comments on social media branding reports about bodies piling up at his crematorium as fake news.

                          “Those who believe in conspiracy theories can’t be helped. We don’t want to debate with them,” he told The Associated Press. “They have their beliefs and we have our knowledge.”

                          Down in Meissen, the streets are empty, devoid of the usual tourists or even the bustle of locals.

                          Franziska Schlieter runs a gourmet food store in the historic city center that’s among the few allowed to stay open amid the lockdown. Her store, which has been run by five generations of her family, is being sustained by a trickle of regulars buying lottery cards and gift baskets.

                          “In the Bible, God sent people plagues when they didn’t behave,” said Schlieter, who feels easing the lockdown over Christmas was a mistake. “Sometimes I have to think of that.”

                          On the cobblestone square, Matthias Huth tends a lone food truck outside his shuttered restaurant. He defends those who have questioned the government’s COVID-19 restrictions, but says skepticism shouldn’t justify denial.

                          “Conversations are starting to change,” Huth said as he served up a dish of chopped blood sausage, sauerkraut and mash known locally as ‘Dead Grandma.’ “Everyone wants it to be over.”

                          ___

                          Kerstin Sopke contributed to this report.

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                          • And at the moment, there’s a greater need for words of consolation because they’ve given their deceased loved one to the ambulance and then they never see them again.”
                            such a heartbreaking thing

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by tantalus View Post
                              such a heartbreaking thing
                              I know an elderly couple where if the husband ever gets taken off the ventilator (which is very doubtful by now) he'll be told his wife died of Corona. She was not sick or tested yet when he last saw her. She died three days after he went to the hospital.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by kato View Post
                                I know an elderly couple where if the husband ever gets taken off the ventilator (which is very doubtful by now) he'll be told his wife died of Corona. She was not sick or tested yet when he last saw her. She died three days after he went to the hospital.
                                all this tragedy and so many young people incapable of comprehending it. We have been increadiblly soft from the beginning on messaging to people. That has been a mistake. We learnt that hard messaging worked on tv adverts for drink driving but couldnt take that learning to this context at the beginning when it mattered most.

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