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COVID 19: Beyond the US and China

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  • #76
    Imports: A Key Sign of Economic Well-Being

    A competitive economy can hold its own in world, exporting what it does better – or more of – to other markets. A healthy economy, on the other hand, has the ability (financial capacity, domestic demand) to import what it needs or wants from outside. Hence, tracking imports may tell us something useful about economic health in times of crisis.

    The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) tracks monthly trade for 46 economies, including nine that are not members of the OECD. The nine are Argentina, Brazil, China, Costa Rica, India, Indonesia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa.

    Among the 46, all are experiencing double-digit declines in imports in year-to-date 2020, with the notable exceptions of Turkey (-1.2%), China (-2.6%), Denmark (-5.5%), Ireland (-5%), Russia (-7.9%), Korea (-9.1%), Switzerland (-9.4%), Australia (-9.6%), Slovenia (-9.9%), and Norway (-9.9%).

    The remaining 36 range from -10% (Hungary) to -31.2% (India), and have a weighted average of -13.3%.




    oecd.org







    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

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    • #77
      France has posted 25 thousand cases plus the last 2 days and a positivty rate nearing 13% so clearly they have a really big problem that is moving quickly.

      If anybody knows a website that collates postivity rates regularly please link it. I havent come across one and its a very handy metric to track.

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      • #78
        UK clocking up 17,000 yesterday. Spikes in cases all over Western Europe, some in nations that were hit hard in the first wave, some in nations that avoided the worst the first time around.
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        Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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        • #79
          Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
          UK clocking up 17,000 yesterday. Spikes in cases all over Western Europe, some in nations that were hit hard in the first wave, some in nations that avoided the worst the first time around.
          The R number has been estimated by SAGE at between 1.3 and 1.5 and they consider the number accurate. This means trouble as the epidemic is still growing with speed. Boris has taken some measures in the last few days which will take time to show effect. I doubt the new measures can get it to 1, so with the basline already so high, it only being October, and the R comfprtably exceeding 1, much more will have to be done imo.

          It was revealed that SAGE recommended a "circuit breaker", which is really just the new and updated version of a lockdown taken from what we learnt from the first wave back on September 21st. Hindsight suggests the local approach system was fatally flawed or poorly designed. It needed to be far more aggressive and basically needed to take into account for a certain level of non-compliance which it failed to do. As Kato says, (problem number 3) the strategies and models didnt adequately cover for non complance by younger cohorts,

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          • #80


            I think a major problem for the euro countries that have failed to prevent this surge is the they are in part a victim of their own success. By getting the numbers so low the population became more relaxed than the americans and the snap back has been more rapid as a result.

            In the states people have been constantly weary which has kept compliane more steady. Obviously far more died and suffered in the usa over the summer months. Also as the pandemic became politicised in the states democrats possibly became even more focused on behaving respnsibly. Ironically this has helped limit the extent of the damage caused by Trumps incompetence. and slowed the rise in the autumn compared to many western europe nations.

            I don't have anything quantitative to back this up, I am just speculating and it doesnt predict anything moving forward. It seems likely that most euro nations will be aggressive in stopping the second wave. It seem inevitable lthat the USA will catch up and its not clear what will be done to control it or how much those efforts will vary by states. Its easier to predict what the euro nations will do.

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            • #81
              Right now Belgium has one of the biggest problems reporting 10,000 cases plus a over last couple of days for a country of 11 million. Tests positivity rate near 15%. The rate of growth is also very fast which indicates a considerable amount of damage has a already been inflicted but wont materalise until the next 2 weeks pass.

              Ireland is expected to announce a lockdown for 4 to 6 weeks that will restrict movement to 5km and Wales have announced a circuit breaker for 2 weeks.

              Irelands numbers are better than many other western nations but due to a weak health system and a more aggressive suppression approach they are pushing the lockdown button earlier than many of its neighbours. The northern part of the Island under the jurisdiction of Westminster and Boris Jonhson has acted as a real case study to compare 2 different approaches over the summer. The north has seen rates 2 to 4 times higher than the republic and that is with cases spilling across the open border south infecting the republic and lifting their numbers.

              Any country or region (and its populace) that has the luxury of being a few of weeks behind should take note of the situation and adapt behaviour and policy quickly. Many places still have the time to deliver a more desirable outcome socially and economically if they can pivot.
              Last edited by tantalus; 19 Oct 20,, 21:33.

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              • #82
                Originally posted by tantalus View Post
                Any country or region (and its populace) that has the luxury of being a few of weeks behind should take note of the situation and adapt behaviour and policy quickly. Many places still have the time to deliver a more desirable outcome socially and economically if they can pivot.
                There's a rural German county on the border with Austria that has similar incidence rates as the Czech Republic or Spain (252 cases/100,000 citizens in last 7 rolling days).

                They're locking down for two weeks starting tuesday from 2 pm (no movement outside own residence other than for work, doctor's visits or necessary shopping, no travel across the county's borders other than for work, mask requirement 6 am to 11 pm outside, all schools and leisure activities closed down, no alcohol sales 11 pm to 6 am, meetings in private residences limited to 5 people or own household).

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                • #83
                  Originally posted by kato View Post
                  There's a rural German county on the border with Austria that has similar incidence rates as the Czech Republic or Spain (252 cases/100,000 citizens in last 7 rolling days).

                  They're locking down for two weeks starting tuesday from 2 pm (no movement outside own residence other than for work, doctor's visits or necessary shopping, no travel across the county's borders other than for work, mask requirement 6 am to 11 pm outside, all schools and leisure activities closed down, no alcohol sales 11 pm to 6 am, meetings in private residences limited to 5 people or own household).
                  Right approach. Its very difficullt at border regions with open travel. If the rules are different people start heading for the more lenient side and eventually the virus occupies both.

                  The only thing I would say is its a mistake to leave people to travel between households once the intention is to go through a suppression period not management. The virus is just getting into the private home as people have so much more free time they start jumping through households more to occupy themselves and keep social life going and thre are zero protections in place, its a completely uncontrolled environemnt. In the end its better to protect the economy than private social interactions thats the hard truth and getting in a few weeks earlier with a household ban could make a significant difference.

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                  • #84
                    France has announced a tough second lockdown. Although certain parts of the economy are being left open, people are expected to stay at home. Going outside requires written permission unless you are engaged in the list of economic activities allowed.

                    Germany are considering one for next week. They would be striking earlier than other nations relative to where they are if they go ahead, something similar to the republic of Ireland. Other european nations have holded on or are holding on to the last minute in a bid to slow the spread enough to prevent a collapse of the health system while avoiding a lockdown. It seems inevitable now that many other western nations will announce lockdowns in the coming weeks.

                    I dont think any country that has seen a surge has managed to get the R under 1 without calling a lockdown as of yet. Israel, czech republic, France, Ireland have all announded one. the measures have to get the R number to one, even slightly over and you only slow the inevitable which is an overun health system.

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                    • #85
                      Here in Australia the strict Stage 4 restrictions imposed in the state of Victoria have been lifted. Lots of businesses reopening and people catching up with friends & family. At the peak of the second wave the number of new cases per day was over 700. This week it got down to 0. Nationally daily new cases are in hig single or low double figures. While we have lost almost 1000 lives we have been spared even greater carnage by the preparedness of governments and citizens to do what needed to be done to get the virus under control.

                      A great deal will now rest on the ability of contact tracing systems to keep track of new cases and jump on potential outbreaks. Some restrictions will continue, but life will be mostly back to normal.
                      sigpic

                      Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                      • #86
                        Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
                        Here in Australia the strict Stage 4 restrictions imposed in the state of Victoria have been lifted. Lots of businesses reopening and people catching up with friends & family. At the peak of the second wave the number of new cases per day was over 700. This week it got down to 0. Nationally daily new cases are in hig single or low double figures. While we have lost almost 1000 lives we have been spared even greater carnage by the preparedness of governments and citizens to do what needed to be done to get the virus under control.

                        A great deal will now rest on the ability of contact tracing systems to keep track of new cases and jump on potential outbreaks. Some restrictions will continue, but life will be mostly back to normal.
                        Congrats to australia. You must have gotten great compliance from the people to achiieve it.

                        Every cycle of this around the world allows for more learning. The mistakes are available in europe and the solutions in east asia, with cases so incredibly low you should be able to contact trace effectively. If resourcs are poored onto the few cases and you attack small outbreaks with massive aggression there will be plenty of social and economic upside to be had in the next 12 months for your sacrifice.

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                        • #87
                          Originally posted by tantalus View Post

                          Congrats to australia. You must have gotten great compliance from the people to achiieve it.

                          Every cycle of this around the world allows for more learning. The mistakes are available in europe and the solutions in east asia, with cases so incredibly low you should be able to contact trace effectively. If resourcs are poored onto the few cases and you attack small outbreaks with massive aggression there will be plenty of social and economic upside to be had in the next 12 months for your sacrifice.
                          People have been incredible here & it makes me proud of my state. The first lockdown was shorter, less restrictive & nationwide. This time it was 3 months and my state was on our own. The Murdoch press & conservative politicians tried to stir up trouble, but the vast majority of people here understand that the choice is between personal inconvenience for ourselves or death for others. I won't say we were happy about what had to be done, but we got it done. Now the weather is warming up and we can take advantage. There is a bit hit to take here in economic and social terms. We will have to work hard to deal with that, but much of that pain was coming anyway. Not having the added pain of thousands mroe deaths makes it easier to cope with.

                          Equally impressive has been our state to the north, NSW, that has managed to keep small outbreaks under control in a way that we failed to do. The yare the model for all of us to follow. Australia has certain advantages - in particular an easily sealed border - but the importance of that can be (and is) overstated. The key factor to controlling this is the quality of the systems in place to deal with outbreaks and the willingness of the population to take measures to ensure those systems are robust. This is where strong, sensible and informed political leadership is vital. We have that, and I'm not just talking about governments of one political stripe. Plenty of hard work ahead until a vaccine is available.
                          sigpic

                          Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                          • #88
                            Originally posted by Bigfella View Post

                            People have been incredible here & it makes me proud of my state. The first lockdown was shorter, less restrictive & nationwide. This time it was 3 months and my state was on our own. The Murdoch press & conservative politicians tried to stir up trouble, but the vast majority of people here understand that the choice is between personal inconvenience for ourselves or death for others. I won't say we were happy about what had to be done, but we got it done. Now the weather is warming up and we can take advantage. There is a bit hit to take here in economic and social terms. We will have to work hard to deal with that, but much of that pain was coming anyway. Not having the added pain of thousands mroe deaths makes it easier to cope with.

                            Equally impressive has been our state to the north, NSW, that has managed to keep small outbreaks under control in a way that we failed to do. The yare the model for all of us to follow. Australia has certain advantages - in particular an easily sealed border - but the importance of that can be (and is) overstated. The key factor to controlling this is the quality of the systems in place to deal with outbreaks and the willingness of the population to take measures to ensure those systems are robust. This is where strong, sensible and informed political leadership is vital. We have that, and I'm not just talking about governments of one political stripe. Plenty of hard work ahead until a vaccine is available.
                            Sounds like you have signed K Rudd's petition!

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                            • #89
                              Originally posted by hboGYT View Post

                              Sounds like you have signed K Rudd's petition!
                              No, just paying attention. :)
                              sigpic

                              Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                              • #90
                                Heard a great report on NPR last evening regarding the surprising uptick in cases in Europe well beyond what was predicted.

                                In a word the reason is...complacency.

                                Europeans did well last Spring but grew complacent and are now paying for a hard 2nd Wave.

                                Not a great time of year for that to happen.
                                “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                                Mark Twain

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