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  • #61
    Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
    That is not my take on that. More like the people believed they were infectious while showing symptoms and they have found that you can be infectious when not showing any symptoms.
    ok that is a simpler take and I think get the scary bit now.

    The split is 80 (mild) - 15 (serious) - 5 (critical)

    It was found up to 50% and more of found positives are asymptomatic.

    It means this disease is highly infectious since the people that can spread it make up 80%

    Unlike with previous diseases where people would develop symptoms sooner, get sick and would not be able to spread the disease.

    Most people look at the 80-15-5 split and think its not too bad. 80% will recover without any treatment.

    The bad part is the 80 number that helps to spread infection faster. 10x more infectious than flu he said.

    He also mentions how the fake news starts. Media picking up on non peer reviewed research.

    Given this virus is so new, media is picking up on anything promising.

    FDA has taken the position of allowing drugs on compassionate grounds.


    Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
    Remember we are having health care workers contracting the virus in the hospitals and all the patients there are definitely sick.
    Thing about health care workers in a hospital setting is repeated contact of the infected with non-infected. The odds of them passing the disease on are higher in such a setting. If the patients aren't also wearing masks there is a chance of them getting the disease even though they are in a different ward.

    This is where the HCQ thing started. None of the patients in the lupus ward in Wuhan central hospital contracted the disease : )

    The same problem occurs with health care workers treating covid patients. They are subjected to much higher exposure on a repeated basis to the point they are getting infected as well despite all precautions taken. I mean proper PPE and still some end up with the disease. This means there is a leak some where. That coupled with how over worked they are means their immune systems are weaker as well.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 29 Apr 20,, 22:43.

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    • #62
      Originally posted by Oracle View Post
      US supports firms weighing India as alternative to China

      This is once in a century opportunity.
      It is but unless India can offer a stable ie predictable regulatory environment this opportunity will be squandered.

      Promises from current leaders amount to nothing. It needs to be in writing in the form of laws enacted.

      So that the Indian govt cannot hold foreign companies to ransom just because India had an election and some one else came into office.

      How to do that when the opposition will put all sorts of hurdles so as to make any law passed less favourable in the end. JUST....BECAUSE THEY ARE THE OPPOSITION!!! Remember the US nuke deal. When's that getting off the ground. Signed over a decade ago. What did the US get out of it ? Arms deals i suppose because they ain't shipping us any reactors.

      Person to pay attention to is Rick Rossow from CSIS. He tracks US - India trade relationship.

      The state dept encouraging US companies is fine but US companies have lost their shirt in India in the past.

      Enron is one example from twenty years ago. Vodafone having issues.

      This creates a stink about India in the minds of US companies and our leaders will have to be that much more persuasive.

      If this new US push helps Modi wrestle the entrenched bureaucracy who actually runs India then great.

      Trade relations with the US is contentious affair at the best of times and with a lot of countries.

      Ask Canada what it's like to do business with the Americans : D

      India - US strategic relations in contrast is more positive and smoother sailing. We're the customer. Their idea of Indo Pacific is Hollywood to Bollywood, ours is broader. No biggie.

      Any trade deals with the US will have to follow the new NAFTA 2.0 template. Trump's vision.

      Japan & S.Korea have already signed on to that new format.

      I do not think relations between US & India can improve further unless people of both countries see the economic component improving. Just strategic isn't enough. We are both coasting currently when we should be much further along.

      Modi was Trump before Trump became Trump. Both are economic nationalists.

      This isn't the same US that opened up to China in the 80s.
      Last edited by Double Edge; 29 Apr 20,, 23:56.

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      • #63
        Originally posted by Oracle View Post
        I don't follow US internal politics as much as you guys do. I comment based on what I read on US media. So the percentage of voters in the undecided lot is 3%. It's too small to be hinged upon. Once (2016) it made a difference, but it won't be the same this time. To be frank, I for a second didn't think President Trump would win in 2016. There is a pattern that whoever becomes POTUS completes his second term, and based on the conspiracy theories and his outlandish talk, that his supporters seem to believe, there is every chance he will get a second term in office.

        Biden is a better choice than Bernie or Warren, IMV. And as far as India is concerned, we've worked with him during the Obama Presidency, so transition would be smooth. HRC is also a better choice given her dislike for Pakistan, but she ain't becoming POTUS.

        We also had PMs like that, the silent MMS, we tolerated him for 10 years. If President Trump gets 4 more years, it's for you all to display your tolerance level. OTOH, there is every chance TH would move to some other country. :D
        There is a pattern of getting that second term but going by the record, Americans generally do not re-elect an incumbent when faced with a recession.

        In the US a recession is defined as two quarters with negative growth. No way to dodge a recession come Nov is there ?

        Fiddle with the numbers all you want but if the average American does not think their lot improved they will vote for some one else and i don't know if Trump's approval ratings will matter in that case.

        Without the virus i'd have thought Trump would get a second term. It's unclear right now.

        And TH will miss Trump big time i bet : D

        The flip side of this is i'm not convinced turnout will be that much better than the last time in spite of Trump. I was thinking more people will show up to vote against him. So the winning margin will be slim and difficult to predict like the last time.

        Trump benefits if turnout is lower. There is no clarity on whether voting by post will be allowed which is a way to increase turnout.

        There is even talk that the results of the Nov election won't be settled at the ballot box but in court which is never a good thing. They already went through that in 2000 with Bush vs Gore. The infamous recount.
        Last edited by Double Edge; 30 Apr 20,, 00:16.

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        • #64
          Originally posted by Gun Grape View Post
          Info on vaccines from Dr. Jerome Kim, the Director General of the International Vaccine Institute

          He explains the different vaccine testing phases here. But there is one group he didn't mention that can move faster and if they're lucky could have a vaccine by September

          In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead | NYT | Apr 27 2020

          Most other teams have had to start with small clinical trials of a few hundred participants to demonstrate safety. But scientists at the university’s Jenner Institute had a head start on a vaccine, having proved in previous trials that similar inoculations — including one last year against an earlier coronavirus — were harmless to humans.

          That has enabled them to leap ahead and schedule tests of their new coronavirus vaccine involving more than 6,000 people by the end of next month, hoping to show not only that it is safe, but also that it works.

          The Oxford scientists now say that with an emergency approval from regulators, the first few million doses of their vaccine could be available by September — at least several months ahead of any of the other announced efforts — if it proves to be effective.

          Now, they have received promising news suggesting that it might.

          Scientists at the National Institutes of Health’s Rocky Mountain Laboratory in Montana last month inoculated six rhesus macaque monkeys with single doses of the Oxford vaccine. The animals were then exposed to heavy quantities of the virus that is causing the pandemic — exposure that had consistently sickened other monkeys in the lab. But more than 28 days later all six were healthy, said Vincent Munster, the researcher who conducted the test.
          Whoop! Whoop!

          The institute’s effort against the coronavirus uses a technology that centers on altering the genetic code of a familiar virus.

          A classic vaccine uses a weakened version of a virus to trigger an immune response.

          But in the technology that the institute is using, a different virus is modified first to neutralize its effects and then to make it mimic the one scientists seek to stop — in this case, the virus that causes Covid-19.

          Injected into the body, the harmless impostor can induce the immune system to fight and kill the targeted virus, providing protection.
          When you hear these stories about bio lab in Wuhan, the description here seems to fit into what they were doing. Modifying known corona virus to study it.

          Professor Hill has worked with that technology for decades to try to tweak a respiratory virus found in chimpanzees in order to elicit a human immune response against malaria and other diseases. Over the last 20 years, the institute has conducted more than 70 clinical trials of potential vaccines against the parasite that causes malaria. None have yet yielded a successful inoculation.
          The safety has been proven before so they can move faster to the next phases

          The institute last week began a Phase I clinical trial involving 1,100 people. Crucially, next month it will begin a combined Phase II and Phase III trial involving another 5,000. Unlike any other vaccine project now underway, that trial is designed to prove effectiveness as well as safety.

          The scientists would declare victory if as many as a dozen participants who are given a placebo become sick with Covid-19 compared with only one or two who receive the inoculation. “Then we have a party and tell the world,” Professor Hill said. Everyone who had received only the placebo would also be vaccinated immediately.
          Last edited by Double Edge; 30 Apr 20,, 06:47.

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          • #65
            so much for the Sweden model.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-things-wrong

            At 43 deaths per 100,000, Sweden’s mortality rate is among the highest globally and far exceeds that of neighboring Denmark and Norway, which imposed much tougher lockdowns at the onset of the pandemic.

            “Clearly, there is potential for improvement in what we have done in Sweden,” Tegnell said.

            ...

            What’s more, there’s so far limited evidence that Sweden’s decision to leave much of its society open will support the economy. Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson recently warned that Sweden is facing its worst economic crisis since World War II, with GDP set to slump 7% in 2020, roughly as much as the rest of the EU.
            here's one expert who did even worse than Redfield.
            There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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            • #66
              Originally posted by Andrew Shue
              It struck Spain heavily but in the end it remains one of the best European countries to live in. I guess that due to Covid-19 local prices for real estate will go down and in the next several months they will regain their position so it is high time to make property purchases in case you have free cash of course. Torrevieja still offers great value for money. Just look at these awesome offers https://virtoproperty.com/property-f...nte/torrevieja
              Last year I had a business trip to Torrevieja. I must admit that this place is second to none in terms of climate, architecture and nature.

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              • #67
                Maybe, the future beyond US and China lies in regionalism. Here is an interesting analysis I stumbled upon.

                https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analyti...navirus-world/

                COVID-19 has exposed the myopia and fragility underlying our worldwide supply chains. The first order of business, therefore, should be in ensuring the integrity of critical supply chains. Elected officials cannot play dice with basic necessities like food, medicines, clothing, public transportation, and the assorted nuts and bolts of daily societal functions. Supply chains should be shorter, less prone to exogenous risks, and must be dictated by long-term strategic imperatives rather than economics.

                Take the global healthcare ecosystem, for instance. When COVID-19 struck, India a traditional pharmaceutical powerhouse was sourcing 70% of its active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) imports worth $2.4 billion from China. The figures appear worse for the US. According to a recent CFR blog, about 97% of all US antibiotics were sourced from China, on top of 80% of APIs used in local drug production. To make matters worse, both the US and India are engaged in a severe geopolitical logjam with China. Imagine the consequences of a full-scale trade war?

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                • #68
                  Israel just entered a second lockdown. By most international standards its very tight, restricting people to 500 metres of their home. I understand australia has been tough but they have atleast the "realistic" backdrop of going to zero. Still holding onto a dream that was a realistic reality before the hotel quarantine fiasco.

                  The narrative in europe is to try hard to avoid second lockdowns by tackling the virus early with a diverse series of measures and levers that allow the health system to cope. Some countries are more aggressive with a suppression logic without actually having a real goal of zero.

                  What surpises me is Israel hasnt found a series of measures that balanced the situation and avoided such a severe decision. They have had 12 weeks to tinker the measures since the summer spread to get it under control. A problem with evaluating these things is threading the needle and disentangling science, national values and politics. One politican may favour a stronger second lockdown approach due to personality or politics even though they could have chosen a softer approach. Netanyahu is under alot of scrutiny and may favour a very strong reaction to major crises to strengthen his brand. This noise may confuse tranlating what has unfolded in israel to other european nations in the coming months

                  Israel has been rational thus far, although in suffered a too early reopening like the USA as its major error thus far. We will have to see what tranlates and what does not in the coming weeks and months to other western nations.
                  Last edited by tantalus; 13 Sep 20,, 21:54.

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                  • #69

                    Germany is switching to mandatory mask wearing in "crowded" public places in any place that exceeds (rolling) 35 new infections per 100,000 citizens within last 7 days. The city i live in - which does exceed that, at 36.2 as of today - has already announced that regulation will affect at least one full district of town with about 12,000 residents entirely starting Friday.

                    In addition in places exceeding 50 new infections / 100,000 any gatherings in private will be restricted to maximum 10 people from maximum 2 households again, similar to the first wave. They've already reserved that if the infection rate in a place stays that high more than 10 days this will be further restricted to gatherings of 5 people from 2 households.

                    France has introduced full nightly curfews in all larger cities in the street effective today, locking residents of these cities down after 11 pm.
                    Last edited by kato; 14 Oct 20,, 20:23.

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                    • #70
                      Pretty sensible for countries like Germany to strike quickly and not end up like other nations like the czech republic who did extremely well first time round. Easier sell to the populace as they see their neighbours fate.

                      Safe to say it hasnt gone well in europe as per mid summer expectations.

                      I think the virus and aerosol spread was underestimated. (problem 1)

                      We overestimated people and underestimated the full extent of pandemic fatigue. (problem 2)

                      And we overestimated test and trace Plus countries simply didnt get effective measures in place earlier enough on a regional level. Lack of political will as you have to look like you are over reacting to stop the initial climb, causing immense economic and social damage to keep levels low and test and trace effective, to keep r below 1 for sustained periods, lack of scientific literacy and not accounting for problems 1 and 2 in proportionate measure all hurt europe.

                      Plus problem 3 becomes aggravated by probelms 1 and 2 as the cases scale quickly beyond contact tracing as resourced in the west, no south korea. Its a combination, and all about the timely reaction, all the pieces have not aligned and once certain parts of the puzzle shapeshifted we couldnt tip the scales fast enough and in the right way.

                      Some euro countires have fared well but as of today Netherlands and czech republic have some version of a lockdown in place. Ireland also have very restrictive measures, as do parts of the UK. Spain and france have very restrictive measures in certain regions and there seem to be large virus outbreaks in various eastern states so its a bit of a mess given its only early october.
                      Last edited by tantalus; 14 Oct 20,, 22:42.

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                      • #71
                        Originally posted by tantalus View Post
                        We overestimated people and underestimated the full extent of pandemic fatigue. (problem 2)
                        Problem 3 is that people for some reason thought (or think) that younger adults "won't get it".

                        By now in Germany the highest incidence rate of people tested positive within their age group - for all 334,000 cases - is among 15-34 year olds (at about 560-570 per 100,000), higher than for any other age group.

                        This is the case in other European countries too. In Belgium there's a university where 2% of students are infected.

                        Originally posted by tantalus View Post
                        as the cases scale quickly beyond contact tracing as resourced in the west
                        We're actually pushing massive ressource numbers into this by now. Current target number is about 22,000 people working just in contact tracing and related tasks at local health agencies (ten times the normal numbers for disease control), assisted by 15,000 soldiers of "Task Force Corona". That includes entirely new office buildings for them too in many places.
                        Last edited by kato; 14 Oct 20,, 23:57.

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                        • #72
                          Ya the framing early in the spring really hurt us permanently on that front.

                          Originally posted by kato View Post


                          This is the case in other European countries too. In Belgium there's a university where 2% of students are infected.


                          We're actually pushing massive ressource numbers into this by now. Current target number is about 22,000 people working just in contact tracing and related tasks at local health agencies (ten times the normal numbers for disease control), assisted by 15,000 soldiers of "Task Force Corona". That includes entirely new office buildings for them too in many places.
                          Some east asian countries would define massive by not what appears a big number but what actually works. Perhaps the germans have done better in this regard but I dont think any euro naton matches the south koreans who would test your dog cat and goldfish if you neigbour down the road sneezed.

                          The key is they apply that approach when cases are very low, thats gone in europe.

                          If 3 people have 3 contacts have 3 contacts have 3 conacts have 3 contacts thats 243 people to trace.

                          If 3 people have 6 contacts have 6 contacts have 6 conacts have 6 contacts thats 3888 people to trace.

                          If 3 people have 9 contacts have 9 contacts have 9 conacts have 9 contacts thats 19683 people to trace.

                          If infections scale to 9
                          If 9 people have 9 contacts have 9 contacts have 9 conacts have 9 contacts thats 59049 people to trace

                          and to 18 (with 14 day doubling time)
                          If 18 people have 9 contacts have 9 contacts have 9 conacts have 9 contacts thats 118098 people to trace


                          As individual peoples contact list grew through the summer along with the virus infection numbers the tracing approach has a diminishing effect and zero chance of applying a menaingful downard pressure on the epidemic.

                          This thing scales beyond western deployed resources very quickly. You have a small window to trace efficiently and then you have to keep it there to continue to be effective. Europe had a chance and the states never even got there.
                          Last edited by tantalus; 15 Oct 20,, 09:18.

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                          • #73
                            Originally posted by tantalus View Post
                            If 3 people have 6 contacts have 6 contacts have 6 conacts have 6 contacts thats 3888 people to trace.
                            Eh, more like if you upscale that to actual cases then at the third degree you're already covering 90% of the population. 90% of the population knows someone who knows someone who knows someone who's already tested positive. That also shows the exercise in futility right there.

                            No one in Europe traces beyond first degree. You're a first-degree contact, you're ordered into quarantine. If you develop symptoms, that's when they waste a test on you, and if it's positive, that's when they go for the next degree.

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                            • #74
                              The IMF Reconsiders
                              World Economic Outlook October 2020 imf.org


                              In a nutshell, the world economy in Q-2 wasn't quite as ugly as yo mama.



                              The IMF's World Economic Outlook now envisages a 0.8% less awful 2020, but at the expense of some slowing next year. The global economy is now expected to contract 4.4% in real terms this year, and then grow by 5.2% in 2021.

                              The big adjustments, to both years and in both directions are for the United States (-4.3%, then +3.1% in 2021), France (-9.8% and +6%), and Italy (-10.6%, +5.2%). Among the largest emerging economies, China gains 0.9%, to +1.9% this year – it's worst performance in many decades – while India is expected to be 5.8 percentage points worse off, at -10.3%. Both rise above 8% next year.

                              Excerpts--
                              “The downturn triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic has been very different from past recessions. In previous downturns, service-oriented sectors have tended to suffer smaller growth declines than manufacturing. In the current crisis, the public health response needed to slow transmission, together with behavioral changes, has meant that service sectors reliant on face-to-face interactions—particularly wholesale and retail trade, hospitality, and arts and entertainment—have seen larger contractions than manufacturing (Figure 1.6). The scale of disruption indicates that, without a vaccine and effective therapies to combat the virus, such sectors face a particularly difficult path back to any semblance of normalcy.”
                              “The currencies of commodity exporters among advanced economies strengthened as commodity prices firmed. Most emerging market currencies recovered between April and June, after the severe pressures during the market turmoil in March. Since then the Chinese renminbi has strengthened and the currencies of other Asian emerging market economies have generally remained stable in real effective terms. In contrast, the Russian ruble depreciated on geopolitical factors and the currencies of countries severely affected by the pandemic or with a vulnerable external or fiscal position (such as Argentina, Brazil, and Turkey) have also weakened.”
                              “Major central banks are assumed to maintain their current settings throughout the forecast horizon to the end of 2025. The baseline forecast is consistent with financial conditions remaining broadly at current levels.”
                              “Global trade is expected to contract by over 10 percent this year—a pace similar to during the global financial crisis in 2009, despite the contraction in activity being much more pronounced this year.”



                              In Chapter 2, there's a deep analysis of the cost and benefits of economic lock-downs:
                              “The observation that lockdowns can reduce infections but involve short-term economic costs is often used to argue that lockdowns involve a trade-off between saving lives and protecting livelihoods. This narrative should be reconsidered in light of the earlier findings showing that rising infections can also have severe detrimental effects on economic activity. By bringing infections under control, lockdowns may thus pave the way to a faster economic recovery as people feel more comfortable about resuming normal activities. In other words, the short-term economic costs of lockdowns could be compensated through higher future economic activity, possibly even leading to positive net effects on the economy. This remains a crucial area for future research as more data become available.”






                              Trust me?
                              I'm an economist!

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                              • #75
                                Originally posted by kato View Post
                                Eh, more like if you upscale that to actual cases then at the third degree you're already covering 90% of the population. 90% of the population knows someone who knows someone who knows someone who's already tested positive. That also shows the exercise in futility right there.

                                No one in Europe traces beyond first degree. You're a first-degree contact, you're ordered into quarantine. If you develop symptoms, that's when they waste a test on you, and if it's positive, that's when they go for the next degree.
                                Absolutely I was being illustrative but I can see that i was unnecessarily confusing and I used a very silly way to detail it. I didnt really mean trace 5 orders of contacts. I was just trying to show how exponential numbers work and how a small difference multiplies out vastly.

                                As it goes from 3 cases to 9 cases to 18 cases to 50 cases to 100 cases a day and how a small increase in the number of first degree contacts from 3 to 6 to 9 close contacts dramtically increases the contact tracing team workload.

                                But we should have gone beyond the first contacts in certain situations and when the numbers were very low (not as extreme as I suggested above) and also further back in time for each individual case of infection to the source of said infection. Even then it would have taken vast resources. The south koreans contact traced 45000 in May due to a small outbreak linked to seuol nightclubs. If you are quick and resource it intensely you can trace back to origin and then back up capturing other chains that branched out from that event, over running impending asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases before they become infectious as well as accurately discovering and detailing sources of spread for future management. This becomes a self fulfilling loop that with other tools can prove effective.

                                Europe considered contact tracing strategically, operationally, and tactically different from south korea. We went after the low hanging fruit, they went after the whole tree. Whats not clear to me is why we didnt or couldnt follow the south korean approach. Was it a strategic failure to understand the approach's overall merit and the tactical advantages it would give authorities? Or was it not possible to execute the strategy on an operational level on short notice at the scale required? The south koreans learnt lessons from the second mers outbreak a few years back and had plans in place for this very moment, perhaps we couldnt follow suit in 12 weeks.
                                Last edited by tantalus; 15 Oct 20,, 19:17.

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