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COVID 19: Beyond the US and China

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  • Thought this chart was interesting, so i translated the legend on the right-hand side.

    This is a chart of all known settings of cluster outbreaks in Germany - an outbreak being any group of minimum two cases with a joint background.

    It shows several interesting things:
    • the effect of vaccination campaign - and that quite extremely: transmission at senior citizen homes (blue) and at hospitals (green) which visibly dominated the second wave is in comparison now a minor vector. Both groups were vaccinated first in Germany.
    • transmission within families and other forms of joint living (light blue) remains rather constant since the beginning of the second wave (around calendar week 42/2020) up to now and due to the above drop is now the largest vector.
    • transmission at the workplace is the current second-largest vector - and snce the beginning of the second wave slowly growing
    • transmission at kindergartens as a phenomenon started within 2-3 weeks of these opening again (after the beginning of the year) and by now present the third-largest vector.
    • pretty much all other transmission vectors are minor to the point where there's at most a thousand cases per week for all combined, as many as the "unknown vector" group.
    (P.S. "place of apprenticeship" should be "education" in the translation - i.e. schools and universities, but also e.g. vocational training)
    Attached Files
    Last edited by kato; 23 Mar 21,, 20:28.

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    • Europe really got the double whammy: precisely because the EU generally did pretty good with the second wave, but unfortunately have since lowered their guard to even deadlier variants.

      I am quite concerned that the discipline that was previously held might not be present this time, simply because the costs are so high and no one wants to be cooped in any longer. it's bad enough in the US, even when everyone KNOWS that they will get vaccine access in about a month.

      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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      • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
        What is interesting is that we are arguing about going back, not going back, elementary school is safe, elementary school is not safe without in depth safety procedures, and over there in Germany there one can see in real time how it can move through children into staff yet that info is not on the radar here.
        You can even see it in the above chart.

        Schools here closed down during the height of the second wave about a week before christmas. They reopened two to three weeks ago.

        Click image for larger version

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        • Originally posted by astralis View Post
          no one wants to be cooped in any longer.
          Different problem here : We've got the masses back on the street. 20,000 at a rally in mid-sized Kassel city in central Germany.

          This photo here is currently trending on social media regarding the real problem:

          Click image for larger version

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          The problem being that police officer. And the fact that various politicians have started weighing in on what the gesture represents. To the point where Godwin's Law is being invoked.

          Police union is criticizing her too btw. Not for the gesture, but because the appropriate reaction (in the union's words) would have been to basically slam her right arm into that woman who's getting way too close to her gun.

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          • Related to this and admittedly anecdotal...the count is now 4 of the families I know where the parents (all in mid-30s/40s) all have COVID...3 very severe...where the source of infection is their children grades 1-5.

            All returned to in class school within the last month.

            In those 2 families there are also grandparents now infected....a matter of waiting 3 more weeks would have seen the grandparents inoculated and free and clear.

            We have shot ourselves in the foot, ejected the magazine, reloaded and shot the other one.
            “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
            Mark Twain

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            • So what is up with all the flak concerning the Easter lockdown that Merkle has taken responsibility for. Germany sounds a bit like the US now with it's regional leaders all over the place like governors.

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              • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
                So what is up with all the flak concerning the Easter lockdown that Merkle has taken responsibility for. Germany sounds a bit like the US now with it's regional leaders all over the place like governors.
                There was a proposal on the table to lock down entirely for five days over Easter - from Thursday to Monday. This was intended to include closing shops and businesses for those five days. The state governors agreed with Merkel on the plan, but just to be sure started asking their legal departments. Answer from them was basically that the only way to do it was to pass laws in parliaments - in each state - to make thursday and saturday this easter formal holidays (friday and monday on easter already are holidays). Which of course is not even remotely achievable with only a single week to do so.

                In addition there was a massive public backlash in particular of course from business representatives and their lobbyists. Merkel then basically took responsibility for proposing the plan in the first place - it's not like she'd have to care much, she's retiring from her office in half a year anyway.



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                • So once again my wife is all stressed out. Manila and surrounding areas, totaling 25 million, were locked down on Saturday. You are confined to your home and cannot leave your barangay. That means no work and in a country where a majority live day to day, some live week to week, even less month to month, and politicians and the rich year to year. This is a problem since there is no government help. Those day to day and week to week are basically screwed. Her family is a week to week and so she is stressed because the last time this was done hunger set in and she had to funnel money over to the family of a dozen. Two biggest expenses there are rice and electricity. She was on the phone with them very late last night and early morning. Fell asleep there where I found her in the morning.

                  https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/healt...-manila-likely

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                  • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                    Related to this and admittedly anecdotal...the count is now 4 of the families I know where the parents (all in mid-30s/40s) all have COVID...3 very severe...where the source of infection is their children grades 1-5.

                    All returned to in class school within the last month.

                    In those 2 families there are also grandparents now infected....a matter of waiting 3 more weeks would have seen the grandparents inoculated and free and clear.

                    We have shot ourselves in the foot, ejected the magazine, reloaded and shot the other one.
                    Well it looks like the UK variant is making major inroads with children now. Some locations say 1 in 10 while others say 1 in 5 new infections are children. Some now showing lung issues in young lungs.

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                    • So I have to ask...why are vaccination issues so rampant in Western Europe?

                      Did folks not get on board with ordering vaccines or what?

                      I'm not understanding this at all.
                      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                      Mark Twain

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                      • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                        So I have to ask...why are vaccination issues so rampant in Western Europe?
                        There are no issues. Virtually all "western"/"developed" nations who do not have miniscule populations are at about the same level of vaccination right now. Effectively this is at around 15% for first vaccine dose in all of these countries right now.

                        The exceptions in this are the US and the UK (better) and various Indopacific nations such as Japan, Korea, New Zealand (much worse). There is some analysis in Germany that basically ties this to national handling of the pandemic - with the US and UK using their domestic pharmaceutical mass production capacity to cover up their disastrous pandemic policies, versus countries that barely felt the pandemic being much slower to react (such as Japan, which basically does not have a vaccination campaign so far and has only vaccinated half a million health personnel).

                        Beyond that there is of course the general issue with the UK and AstraZeneca. However lack of deliveries is not limited to them either, Moderna for example also regularly fails to deliver ordered doses.

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                        • I guess I am looking through a specific lens. Have several friends stationed there who state they are getting vaccinated through the DOD channels much faster than their friends and neighbors.

                          And agree the previous administration was a shit show but current seems to have caught their stride.

                          And I guess I was asking more about the delivery issues...is BioNTech producing for Germany? And the only news about AstraZeneca we are getting seems disjointed....

                          Thanks as always
                          “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                          Mark Twain

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                          • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                            I guess I am looking through a specific lens. Have several friends stationed there who state they are getting vaccinated through the DOD channels much faster than their friends and neighbors.
                            That would probably be because their friends and neighbors aren't living in care homes. We have pretty strict prioritization, the only ones under age 70 who have gotten vaccinated so far are healthcare personnel, teachers and the odd politician that later had to step down over it. After that is category 3 (above 60 or preconditions), which i'm technically in myself.

                            In my wider family aunts and uncles over 80 have been fully vaccinated and a few relatives who work in the above two fields have gotten their first shots. The rest above 70 mostly has to wait because they still have antibodies from their own second wave Covid infections.

                            Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                            And I guess I was asking more about the delivery issues...is BioNTech producing for Germany? And the only news about AstraZeneca we are getting seems disjointed....
                            Biontech was producing relatively small-scale at its two sites in Mainz and Idar-Oberstein, with a third-party contractor (Dermapharm in Halle/Westfalen) producing most so far instead. There's a couple more such contractors in the EU providing production, typically these are sites that produce a few million doses per month individually.

                            Biontech bought a former Novartis plant in Marburg which started dedicated production in February with EMA approval in March and the first doses from there expected to be delivered around right now. That one has a capacity of one billion doses per year with a planned output of 250 million doses until the summer, and constitutes 50% of Pfizer/BionTech's overall global capacity for their vaccine.

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                            • P.S. on production:

                              The reason why certain names haven't popped up at all in vaccine production so far (e.g. GlaxoSmithKline or Bayer) is because these are producing for Curevac.

                              Curevac is a German-developed mRNA vaccine funded by a couple billionaires who want to get richer (... including Elon Musk) that is currently in the last trial stage and has applied for EMA approval. They're planning to throw 300 million doses on the market until the end of the year, which the above two companies among others are already producing. They have about 75 million doses preordered by the EU and Germany.

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                              • Kato,

                                As usual, thanks for the info.

                                A lot of bad reporting out there. That's one of the things I love about the WAB...get to get the info straight from folks living it on site.
                                “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                                Mark Twain

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